Folks, this will be my last writeup for the tournament: I’m going camping this weekend and tragically won’t be able to watch the semis or finals. Thankfully I should be able to PVR the matches and watch them in full when I come back, but predicting the outcome of the finals will be fully left in u/blurryturtle‘s capable hands (or voice, if he sticks with the podcast format through the end of the tournament). It has been a pleasure riffing with everyone here day-by-day, and I’ll see you at the U.S. Open… maybe.

WOMEN’S SINGLES

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova

We were oh-so close to an absolute peak chaos outcome on Tuesday, but Aryna Sabalenka pulled herself out of a Siegemund-inflicted tailspin in the nick of time. Laura continued with the same dynamic she brought against Sierra, namely by completely eschewing anything resembling a conventional baseline rally, and she succeeded at drawing several UEs from both of Aryna’s groundstrokes with her variety. When Sabalenka did get a clean look, Siegemund’s own groundstrokes were often surprisingly stable at reflecting her power back at her. In the third set, Siegemund was up a break 2 or 3 separate times, but then it was her turn to start cracking under the pressure. Perhaps she ran out of gas or perhaps the moment got to her, but she suddenly started making a ton of uncharacteristic errors and ultimately allowed Sabalenka to pull out the third set 6-4. Not the cleanest match she’s ever played, but Aryna is back in the Wimbledon semis after a one-year hiatus.

Meanwhile, Amanda Anisimova did very well to make it past Pavlyuchenkova in straights. The match looked like it was finished after about an hour when Anisimova raced to a 6-1, 5-2 lead, but she faltered for a few minutes and that was all it took for Pavlyuchenkova to eventually force a tiebreak. Anisimova had to save 4 set points, including 3 in a row with Pavs serving at 6-3, but her forehand held up in the crucial moments and she escaped with a straight-sets win.

Anisimova does lead the H2H 5-3, but most of those matches were years ago so I wouldn’t read into them too much. For Saba, the matchup here is more straightforward here than against Siegemund, but the danger is still just as present. Amanda Anisimova finally looks like she’s beginning to believe (insert Morpheus GIF here), and she genuinely does have the weapons to hurt Sabalenka here. She has the best backhand on tour, but so far in this tournament her serve and forehand have been supplementing her offense nicely. One concern is that she isn’t particularly fast so Sabalenka can score if she goes dropshot-crazy as she has been wont to do in recent times, but Sabalenka may not have the time to set up and hit quality dropshots. The clash of two massive offences is kind of reminding me of the Saba-Keys AO final, and when Saba feels pressured to go big constantly rather than wait for an opportunity to pull the trigger it can mess with her timing. Get ready Amanda - your big moment is finally here. Anisimova in 3.

Belinda Bencic vs. Iga Swiatek

After singing Mirra Andreeva’s praises for an entire paragraph 2 rounds ago, I suddenly have to pivot and talk about how Belinda Bencic managed to beat her in the quarterfinal. Bencic was really solid, but the story this match is inevitably going to be Mirra Andreeva’s play. Her serve was excellent and her court coverage was as speedy as ever, but the touch and precision that gave all her previous opponents fits came in a good 3 or 4 levels below where they were earlier in the tournament. From midway through the first set she completely lost all timing in her forehand, and towards the end of the match was reduced to mainly slicing off that wing and retrieving. There was a slight hiccup when Bencic got broken while serving for the match, but then Mirra threw in possibly her worst tiebreak of the tournament and it was all over.

blurry often talks about how recently-graduated juniors will have a distinct level of accuracy from drilling so many reps in training, but one thing I haven’t seen him mention is the distinct pushmode that a lot of them are quick to revert to if they aren’t feeling confident. I use this term rather ironically, for the record, because it has needlessly become a pejorative in the tennis universe (if you have a few minutes to kill, look up “pusher” on r/10s, sort by New, and you can read dozens of angry posts made by people who had probably just lost a USTA match 20 minutes prior). The object of the sport is to get the ball back in the court 1 more time than your opponent. If you can find a way to win a match by doing that, who cares how you’re doing it? (“But they’re limiting their ceeeeeiling,” Maplecrisp the 4.0 says. I mean, worry about your own game, dude, and besides, a dedicated pusher is going to improve and find ways to adapt their game to higher levels just like anyone else does.)

Anyway, Andreeva went full pushmode for the last 20 minutes of the match, and there are quite a few commenters on r/tennis and other circles of the Internet who seem to be viewing this match as a premonition of Mirra’s impending downfall. However, I would rebut that her late-game tactics were a bold change of strategy that just didn’t quite work out. Slicing all of your forehands is not a viable long-term plan unless you’re Monica Niculescu, but I think Mirra clocked that she was actually pretty close to the finish line despite being down a set. Bencic appeared to be in quite a bit of discomfort by the end of the second set, and I do believe that Mirra would have won pretty easily if the match went 3. 

Iga dealt with Samsonova pretty easily; aside from a random hiccup at 4-2 in the second that allowed Liudmila to get back into the match, she never really looked uncomfortable. Bencic is a surprise semifinalist but this match is closer than it looks on paper; Belinda is a top 20 player (which will be official come Monday) and her game is really well-suited for grass. She’s a master at taking the ball early and spreading the court with well-disguised changes of direction. There are a couple problems I can see: first, Bencic is not particularly fast moving laterally, so if Iga can pull her off-court with a swinging topspin forehand the point is pretty much done. Second, Bencic’s second serve is quite slow; Mirra made things a lot harder on herself by seriously misfiring on a bunch of returns, but Iga will be ready to pounce. Finally, there’s the matter of fitness. Apparently Bencic’s discomfort today was due to a broken toenail (???), which sounds thoroughly horrifying as well as something that can’t be remedied too easily within 24 hours.

These two met in the fourth round here 2 years ago, a match I actually watched: Iga saved 2 match points at 6-5 40-15 in the second set before recovering to win a tiebreak, then win the decider. She’s going to need to bring a similar level here, because Iga has put in work since then to shore up some of the weaknesses in her game (particularly the serve). It’s been a fantastic run for Belinda, but I think it might finally be over. Swiatek in 2.

MEN’S SINGLES

Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic

The 4 remaining men in the draw are probably the 4 best grass-court players in the world, and after the chaotic first week we just witnessed it’s kind of ironic to end up with these semifinals. Djokovic-Sinner is a matchup that everyone has wanted to see since the draw was released, and this is going to feel like a statement result no matter how the match turns out. Never count out the GOAT, but he has lost his last 5 encounters with Jannik Sinner and the slow decline in his abilities has become increasingly apparent as Sinner/Alcaraz start to reach their primes. Djokovic won an epic match against Sinner here in 2022 and backed it up with a straight-sets win in 2023, and Sinner reversing the result here would mean he has won their most recent match on all 3 surfaces at Majors. Considering Novak’s current losing streak to Carlos on grass, and the fact that any Major contender for the foreseeable future will likely have to go through one of Alcaraz/Sinner (if not both) to hoist the trophy, a loss here would really not bode well for Djokovic’s future chances at the Major where he has the best shot at winning no. 25.

Both of these guys enter the match a little dinged up, which makes predictions even more difficult than usual (or offers me a convenient excuse if I’m wrong). Sinner’s elbow injury appears to be tolerable with a compression sleeve, although there was one mistimed return in the Shelton match today where I saw him immediately grimace and grab his elbow afterwards. Djokovic took a pretty heavy spill in the Cobolli match today and may have picked up some sort of leg/hip strain himself, although he gave a noncommittal answer about its severity in the post-match presser. I love grass-court tennis as much as the next tennis fan, but two semifinalists potentially being injured from slips is a tough spot for proponents of continuing to expand the grass season. The reality is that neither the Sinner nor the Djokovic fall would have happened on a hard or clay court, and with slides becoming more and more commonplace in the modern game the unpredictably slippery grass courts are becoming more and more dangerous.

Assuming Jannik and Novak are both relatively healthy, Sinner has the edge in most areas here. He’s a little quicker than Novak, he’s got more stamina than Novak (especially since he has spent significantly less time on court), and his groundstrokes are, honestly, some of the best of all time. I’d rate their return of serve about even, and give Novak the slight advantage on his serve. That’s going to be crucial, because IMO the only way for Novak to win here is to blaze through his service games and go all out on the return. He cannot outlast Sinner from the baseline (RG showed this) so he needs to attack constantly, and while Sinner isn’t going to necessarily sit back, he will be comfortable allowing this to become a more attritional battle if Novak isn’t pushing the pace. I did just say something like this for the Dimitrov match and then he almost pulled off the upset, but Djokovic needs to play near-perfect tennis for 3/5 sets and I haven’t really seen that level from him in his last two matches. Sinner in 4.

Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz

I got a lot of flack in yesterday’s Djokovic writeup for saying Carlos was looking slightly vulnerable. I’m not gonna lie, I kind of just added that in without thinking too much, and I can see why people were confused given his QF performance against Norrie. The point I was trying to make is that he was taken to 5 sets by a 38-year-old Fognini in R1, and Struff/Rublev showed in their matches that it is possible to snag sets against him with a high-octane offense. If Djokovic makes the final against Alcaraz, he has those recent results to analyze and potentially use as a confidence boost. Compare that to the RG SF against Sinner, where Jannik hadn’t dropped a set in 5 prior matches and dished out a bagel to both Bublik and Lehecka. For virtually any player there will be a difference (even subconscious) facing a player who is the clear favorite but has had some up-and-down matches, vs. facing a player who is not only the clear favorite but also has an invincibility aura. It’s part of the reason why the Big 3 were able to win so many tournaments in seemingly dominant fashion; at a certain point, the perception of the player begins to tangibly affect the outcome.

Of course, Djokovic is one of the Big 3, and before we even talk about a Djokovic-Alcaraz final we need to talk about the Alcaraz-Fritz semifinal. Fritz and Khachanov played a close match, but Fritz is just a little steadier from the baseline and it added up over time. He isn’t going to have that luxury against Alcaraz, and it will take a supreme offensive performance to make it through here.

In Fritz’s post-match presser, he was asked about this upcoming match and he said something like, “If I serve the way I do the first two sets, it’ll be tough for anyone to beat me.” He’s showing the confidence that it will take for him to win a Major someday, but more importantly he is right. In the first two sets he won 90% of his first serve points, and it will be tough for even Alcaraz to get through him if his offense is that automatic. Carlos, being Carlos, does still have the returning pedigree and the tools to win, but this one could be a lot closer than people think especially if Taylor can get to some tiebreaks. One annoyance for Fritz is that by this point in the tournament the courts have slowed significantly after being chewed up by hundreds of shoes for the last 2 weeks. I would lean more into the upset if this was a first round match (lol could you imagine), but in these conditions I think Carlos takes some time to get a read on the Fritz serve and then runs away with it down the stretch. Alcaraz in 5.