2025 Wimbledon - Day 8 Men's and Women's Singles

MEN’S SINGLES

Jannik Sinner vs. Grigor Dimitrov

People have often mythologized Carlos Alcaraz as having a combination of the Big 3’s best traits, but I think that you could make the same argument for Jannik Sinner as well. His newly-improved serve and relentless aggression are reminiscent of Federer, his commitment to the open-stance backhand when on the move reminds me a lot of Nadal, and his incredibly precise footwork and use of slides on all surfaces is eerily similar to Djokovic. In the last 3 years these two have elevated the power baseline game to new heights, and I suspect they will be widely regarded as all-time greats by the time they hang up their racquets, if they aren’t already.

Against Pedro Martinez, Sinner mostly looked like he was just biding his time. Martinez realized very early on that he wasn’t going to outrally Sinner from the baseline, and he switched things up to a much more aggressive gameplan in the second set. He kept things a lot closer than in the first, but also piled up a bunch of unforced errors in the process, and by the third set both players didn’t seem to be taking things very seriously. Grigor Dimitrov also looked excellent against Ofner, and the body seems to be holding up pretty well considering he couldn’t play any warmup events. That said, Jannik Sinner is dishing out bakery products left and right, and even though Grigor is a step up from his first 3 rounds I don’t foresee a different outcome here.

Before I sing Sinner’s praises too much, I will say that Dimitrov does have some ways to hurt him in this match. He has far and away the best slice on tour, and in neutral/offensive situations it should be especially disruptive on the slick grass courts. His first serve is very tricky to read, and he’s very comfortable hitting aggressive +1s and coming to the net to shorten points. The problem is that Sinner’s timing on both wings seems impossible to really break down (for any player not named Carlos Alcaraz), and that means Grigor’s single-hander is going to be peppered by Jannik’s groundstrokes the entire match. Grigor’s second serve is also not particularly good, and Jannik will have no qualms about stepping in and slamming an on-the-rise return to the backhand corner.

Basically, it will take 6+ games of near-perfection for Dimitrov to even win a set, whereas Sinner should win if he can bring the level he has displayed in his previous 3 matches. I know which outcome I think is more likely. Sinner in 3.

Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego

This pair meets, improbably, for the third straight major: Shelton won the AO QF in 4 sets and the first round of RG in 5. Both matches have been close, but Shelton’s game is like a slightly more complete version of Sonego’s. His serve is a little faster, his backhand is a little more stable, and he’s just a little more willing to get to the net. Sonego was able to dig himself out of a hole against Nakashima, coming back from a break down in the fifth set before winning his third tiebreak of the match in the super-breaker, but Nakashima’s offense is a level below Shelton’s and you maybe have to consider how much more time Lorenzo has spent on court at this point. Shelton in 4 with at least one tiebreak.

Marin Cilic vs. Flavio Cobolli

Cilic continues to roll, and punching his way through a grinder like Munar is a pretty good indicator of his form. He’s going to have his hands full in the 4th round with Cobolli, who nearly has the defense of Munar with way more offense. Cobolli, surprisingly, beat Jakub Mensik in straights, making the 4th round here for the first time after a 2nd-round showing last year. Mensik was really struggling to find the court with his forehand, and he has some work to do on that wing to develop a consistent offense on grass.

Any match with a near 37-year-old is a bit of a gamble, and this one is no exception. These two played in the first round of the French this year, with Cobolli winning in straights, but a matchup on grass is a whole other story when Cilic is involved at this point in his career. His serve and forehand will be that much deadlier on the quick-bouncing surface, and he doesn’t have a particularly weak wing like Mensik’s FH for Cobolli to exploit.

That being said, there are a couple things playing into Cobolli’s favor for this match. Fitness is the obvious one, and if Cilic cannot significantly shorten the rallies from the get-go Flavio will be heavily favored if this one goes 5. I’m not concerned about Cobolli’s returning abilities given how well he dealt with the Mensik serve in the previous round. Finally, the temperature at Wimbledon is only going to be 17 degrees at the start of the match with rain in the forecast earlier (63F for the Americans), so the ball will be traveling a touch slower than earlier this week when Cilic beat Draper.

This is really close, but I’m thinking Cobolli in 4-5. Cilic should be able to get at least a set off his serve alone, but Cobolli hasn’t lost a set yet and he should have the legs to pull this out if the match goes long.

Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic

This was the matchup we were all anticipating last year before ADM’s untimely withdrawal, and it will be the first real stress-test of Novak’s offense at the Championships. Kecmanovic-Djokovic made for some really entertaining rallies, but the result never really seemed in doubt; Kecmanovic couldn’t find ways to consistently hurt Djokovic from the baseline, and every time he came to the net, he got passed.

ADM poses a totally different puzzle for Novak. He has the fitness and wherewithal to struggle through a marathon match, and the longer the match goes on, the more it will tip in his favor. Djokovic knows this, so trying to outrally de Minaur is not an option; he needs to seize the initiative from start to finish, and that means his attacking needs to be sharp.

The good news for Novak is that he’s won this 7 times before, so it’s safe to say he’s pretty comfortable playing an aggressive game on grass. His serve (at this point) is one of the most underrated on tour, his ball placement is, well, GOAT-level, and he’s more or less forced himself into becoming comfortable with serve-and-volley. If he doesn’t blaze through ADM in straight sets, he at least has the means to blaze through the first few sets quickly to conserve energy in the long run. Djokovic in 4.

WOMEN’S SINGLES

Mirra Andreeva vs. Emma Navarro

It’s kind of strange to see an 18-year-old with such a comprehensively complete game in the modern WTA, but that’s the sense I get when I watch Mirra Andreeva play. Her groundstroke mechanics are fluid and repeatable, her serve is steadily improving, and she is very comfortable up at the net thanks to all the doubles she’s been playing. Add in the fact that she’s one of the faster players on tour, and it’s no surprise that she’ll be making her top-5 debut after this tournament. Baptiste brought her signature firepower to their 3rd-round match, but Mirra was able to run down a lot more than Hailey was ready for. Credit to Baptiste for making the second set close and earning a break-back point at 4-3, but Mirra tightened things up from there and closed things out without much fuss. Elevating one’s game in the clutch moments is the mark of a champion, and Andreeva is starting to develop a knack for doing just that after some early disappointments in her career. I predict that Mirra and Coco Gauff will be ranked 1-2 within the next couple years.

Emma Navarro had a much tougher time against the defending champ Krejcikova, and to be overly reductive, she won this match off her fitness. Krejcikova looked like the defending champ for the first set and a half, effortlessly hitting with placement and depth and charging the net to rush Navarro. But then something changed. Krejcikova’s level completely dropped, her already-suspect footwork became plodding, and she ended up taking a lengthy MTO in the third as Navarro slowly dug her way out of the hole. Before her final service game of the match, Babs started crying, which was really difficult to watch. She stated post-match that she ran out of energy, but I suspect she may have reaggravated one (or more) of the various injuries that have been plaguing her over the last year. A lot of people in the YouTube comments were accusing her of faking her injuries, but I highly doubt you’re going to fake crying towards the tail end of a third set where you still have a very real shot at winning the match. It’s been a very tough year for Krejcikova, to put it lightly, and the realization that things are going to logistically get even harder (Babs is set to drop well out of the top 75 after Wimbledon) is probably really overwhelming.

Like the Shelton-Sonego matchup, this is a difficult opponent for Emma because Mirra does a lot of the things that she does, only better. She’s quicker, hits her backhand better, and has a much more effective serve. Navarro is a backboard and will have the court sense to zero in on any shots that are troubling Mirra on the day-of, but Mirra has the tools to work around the Navarro forehand and she has looked amazing in her first 3 matches. Andreeva in 2 is my prediction, and honestly, whoever wins this will probably make the final.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Belinda Bencic

Alexandrova had a little more trouble than I figured against Zeynep Sonmez, with some strong wind interfering with her timing, but she got through in straights. Bencic took the scenic route against Elisabetta Cocciaretto, who was hitting her forehand like crazy (she finished the match with nearly 50 winners), but she fought back from a break down in the third and prevailed in a tight tiebreak. Both players are in good form, and this match should be good. These two met at Bad Homburg right before Wimbledon and Belinda got rolled, but it was her first match in 6 weeks and she looked like a player who hadn’t played in 6 weeks. This is going to be a lot closer.

2 years ago Belinda reached this stage at Wimbledon and barely lost to Iga; she has what it takes to get to the business end of this tournament, but you could easily say the same about Alexandrova. Ekat’s biggest issue throughout her career has been consistency, both on a match-to-match level and a within-the-match level (double faulting has particularly been a problem), and while she doesn’t seem to be having any issues with that so far it’s hard to confidently back each successive performance. At what point does the level fall off? Belinda will do everything she can to instill doubt in Alexandrova, and she definitely is smart enough to work the court, use different height, spin, etc., to give her a ton of different looks. I’m feeling the upset here. Bencic in 3.

Iga Swiatek vs. Clara Tauson

Well then. Swiatek dealt with Collins pretty handily in their highly anticipated clash, although it was a rather listless version of Collins who showed up. Her forehand was seriously off, and she didn’t appear to be moving particularly well either. Could Clara Tauson do any better? Tauson is kind of like her generation’s version of Danielle Collins, with a better forehand and worse backhand, minus the on-court antics, does this just make her a different player? Anyway, Clara beat Rybakina in straights in the third round. She had to save some set points in the first, but she was dangerous from pretty much any position with her forehand and used the backhand slice to great effect when blocking returns and as a disruptive shot in rallies. I do again have to wonder if Rybakina has been playing through a back injury as I suspected in the previous writeup; she was badly struggling to make first serves for the third straight match, and she didn’t save a single break point.

This is the first time Clara Tauson has made it to the second week at Wimbledon (in fact, it’s the first time she’s even made it out of the first round), but you wouldn’t know it from watching her play. She has a little more variety than Collins while retaining a similar amount of firepower, and with 3 straight-sets wins under her belt I don’t think fitness will be a concern for her here. Iga is steadily figuring out the grass and her serve is definitely improving, but after handling the Rybakina serve I don’t think Tauson will be too intimidated. It’s a few years later than she would have hoped, but I think it might be time for Clara’s breakthrough performance at the Major level. Tauson in 3.

Liudmila Samsonova vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Samsonova dealt with Kasatkina pretty easily, while Bouzas Maneiro was the steadier player in her match with Yastremska. Even in the Zakharova match it felt like Dayana’s level was starting to drop a bit, and while I got the Yastremska-JBM match wrong in my previous writeup I’m not particularly surprised by the result. It’s another matchup of mercurial offense vs. stingy defense here, and this is a golden opportunity for Samsonova to make her first Major QF. There are a couple key differences that make this a tougher challenge for JBM than the Yastremska match. First, Samsonova’s serve is much better than Yastremska’s at the expense of her returning, but JBM’s serve is not particularly lethal so she should still get chances to break. Second, Samsonova is better at constructing points than winning with straight ball-bashing, so this will be a slightly more cerebral test for JBM instead of her just needing to weather the storm. Finally, there’s the matter of fitness; Samsonova hasn’t given up more than 5 games in a match (!) so far, whereas JBM’s matches have been a lot more physical.

I’m thinking Samsonova in 2 for this one. JBM has played really well so far, but Liudmila has played even better.