2025 Wimbledon - Day 6 Men's and Women's Singles

MEN’S SINGLES

Jannik Sinner vs. Pedro Martinez

Pedro Martinez has done well to win two matches here, but his two opponents were a wildcard and a clay-court specialist. Sinner is looking clinical, and I’d venture that anything short of the title would be a disappointment for him at this point. Sinner in 3.

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Sebastian Ofner

Ofner caught a lucky break as Paul appeared to injure himself yet again after handily winning the first set. It sets up a clash with Grigor Dimitrov, who did really well to deal with Corentin Moutet’s cat-and-mouse play and make it through in four sets. The weak spot in this matchup is Ofner’s forehand, and Dimitrov will want to direct as much traffic as possible to that wing to try and break down Sebastian’s timing. As long as Grigor’s body holds up, he should win this in 3-4, but of course that’s never a guarantee. This is usually around the time in a Major when Dimitrov picks up some sort of injury, and Ofner will make the match physical in a way that neither of Grigor’s previous two opponents were able to.

Ben Shelton vs. Marton Fucsovics

Ben Shelton was forced to play a second day to serve out a single game against Rinky Hijikata, while Fucsovics had to win the fifth set against Gael Monfils. Fucsovics has played two five-setters, but he’s one of the fittest guys on tour so fatigue likely isn’t a factor just yet. Shelton’s serve is one of the best in the world, however, and although he isn’t the best volleyer he comes forward enough to constantly keep his opponents off-balance. Fucsovics plays a very conservative game, and in BO5 I don’t think Shelton will miss enough to lose the match off his UEs. Shelton in 3-4.

Brandon Nakashima vs. Lorenzo Sonego

Nakashima fought off Opelka’s serve for 4 sets while also not giving up a lot on his own end, finishing the match with 0 double faults and only 12 unforced errors. Lorenzo Sonego awaits in the third round, and while Lore’s 2025 season hasn’t gone as planned he is playing quite well here. On average, I’d say there isn’t a whole lot separating these two. Sonego’s game, despite his nationality, is almost stereotypically American: big serve, big forehand, don’t worry so much about the backhand. Contrast this with Nakashima, who is more solid off both wings (while still being able to attack) but not as dangerous on either side as the Sonego forehand. I would give Lorenzo a slight edge on serve, but Brandon a slight edge on the return. I could write more, but I honestly am not going to convince myself of any outcome other than thinking this will be very close. Someone in 5.

Marin Cilic vs. Jaume Munar

Cilic rolled back the years against Jack Draper, and he put on a breathtaking offensive display to take out the 4th seed in 4 sets. This next match should be much easier for Cilic on paper. But is it really? Jaume Munar is wearing what appears to be a varsity sweater with the sleeves cut off (jk adidas i love your kits), and he’s channeling sleeveless-era Rafa with his willingness to chase everything down for hours on end. He outlasted Bublik in 5 sets in the first round, and it makes me think he can withstand Cilic’s firepower here. 2014-2017 era Cilic probably blasts Munar off the court, but he’s not quite as sharp a decade later and I think Munar will eventually settle into a rhythm if he can weather an early Cilic storm. To steal one of blurry’s phrases, I think Cilic may punch himself out of this one. Munar in 5.

Flavio Cobolli vs. Jakub Mensik

Cobolli won a tight second-set tiebreak against Jack Pinnington Jones, but the result never really seemed in doubt. Jakub Mensik is a huge step up from either of Cobolli’s previous opponents; his serve is a laser, and his flatter groundstrokes are better-suited for grass than Flavio’s. The play for Flavio here is probably to drag out the points and test Mensik’s still-improving fitness, but I don’t know if he’ll really get into enough rallies to put that plan into action. Mensik in 4.

Alex de Minaur vs. August Holmgren

Truly unbelievable fightback from August Holmgren, who faced triple match point at 4-5, 0-40 in the 4th set before coming back for a final-set tiebreak victory. Holmgren piled up 35 aces and 81 winners in a match which featured 4 tiebreaks and only 3 breaks of serve. Unfortunately, his next opponent is the last guy you want to see after spending 4 and a half hours on court in the previous match. Alex de Minaur has legs for days, does very well on grass with his flat groundstrokes, and bageled Arthur Cazaux to finish off their second-round encounter. Unless he serves the lights out, I’m not sure Holmgren can grind out another BO5 match at this point. ADM in 3.

Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Novak Djokovic

Kecmanovic’s serve is not particularly dangerous compared to most of the other guys left in the draw, and he’s 0-3 against Novak (including at Wimbledon 3 years ago). I could provide a more detailed analysis but we’re coming up on midnight and I haven’t been sleeping a whole lot. Djokovic in 3.

WOMEN’S SINGLES

Mirra Andreeva vs. Hailey Baptiste

Baptiste is the kind of player that could give Mirra problems here. She has two very different groundstrokes, can ratchet up the pace on a dime, but is also willing to slow the game down and hit opportunistic short balls to draw her opponent forward. She reminds me a lot of Ons Jabeur (questionable early-career fitness included), and there are worse comparables to have at a Major where Jabeur made the finals twice. Nonstop variety can throw even top-10 players out of their rhythm, and Mirra still has some growing to do in the “refocus and go into lockdown mode” department.

That being said, Baptiste may snag a set with her variety but I don’t think she quite has what it takes to beat Andreeva at this stage. Keep in mind Hailey’s 2 matches were against Cirstea (who has barely won anything this year) and lucky loser Mboko (who had massive strapping on both knees during the match), and Andreeva is a couple levels above either of those two. Mirra is a legitimate threat to win the title here, and she’s more than willing to run down whatever awkward balls Baptiste sends to her side of the court. Andreeva in 3.

Barbora Krejcikova vs. Emma Navarro

This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense, but I’m still not entirely sold on Barbora’s form. She looks a step slow out there, and spraying 39 UEs against Caroline Dolehide is not a particularly inspiring statline. This will be a very stern test of Krejcikova’s health, because Emma is going to make her play a lot of balls. Constantly forcing the issue against Navarro’s steady baselining is definitely the play, but Babs will need to be very sharp to be successful in her attacks. On the other hand, Navarro is coming off a match where she only made 5 unforced errors against Veronika Kudermetova, and it looks like she might finally have shaken off her iffy start the year. Navarro in 2.

Zeynep Sonmez vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova

I was kind of expecting to see Wang and Alexandrova here, but Zeynep Sonmez elevated her game to make the third round of a Major for the first time. The biggest weakness for Sonmez, weirdly, is her serve; the few times I’ve seen her play, it looks to me like she’s swinging for the ball a fraction of a second too late, or maybe not contacting it as far forward as she should be, or maybe her body weight transfer is wonky, or something. I don’t want to try and diagnose too much, I’m not a coach, but her second serve really sits up in the court and a talented ball-striker like Alexandrova should take full advantage of it. Alexandrova in 2.

Belinda Bencic vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto

Cocciaretto backed up her upset of Jessica Pegula with a straight-sets win over Volynets, including a first-set bagel. Belinda Bencic poses a similar challenge to Pegula, so in theory Cocciaretto can win, but will she? By her own admission, she’s playing as well as she ever has, but that also implies she could come crashing back to earth any match now. I could point to Cocciaretto’s relatively undersized frame as a weakness, but we also just saw Paolini make the Wimbledon final last year so I dunno. Bencic’s fitness is still a slight question mark, so she’ll want to seize the initiative here; she should be ready to jump on any Cocciaretto second serves and use her DTLBH (her best shot, IMO) as much as she can to disrupt baseline rallies. As long as the match doesn’t drag on for too too long, I think Belinda takes this in 3.

Iga Swiatek vs. Danielle Collins

Here we go. This is the marquee matchup of the day, and possibly the entire third round. Collins vs. Swiatek is about as competitive as any rivalry with a 7-2 H2H can be, and sparks have flown on occasion. During the Olympics last year there was an extended exchange during the handshake between these two and Danielle made a cryptic comment about not needing “fakeness” from her peers on tour. Moreover, Collins won their last match (Rome) in straights even though it was on clay, a shocking loss that some have pointed to as a microcosm of Iga’s poor form this year.

I’m not about to say that a top-8 player who’s made the AO/RG semis and a stacked 500 final on grass is necessarily bad form, but there certainly has been some inconsistency. Against McNally, Iga cruised to a 4-1 lead, then blinked and suddenly lost the set 7-5. McNally is an excellent volleyer, and she was charging the net constantly to put pressure on Iga. Honestly, this game plan probably would have worked, but McNally’s legs were pretty much gone by the middle of the second set, and Iga started playing with a lot more margin and spin to spread the court and extend the rallies even further. The result seemed assured by the time the third started, but I’m not sure how much of that was an obvious tactical switch from Iga vs. her clueing into the state of a clearly ailing opponent.

Swiatek has already compiled an ATG-level career, but being that good tends to come with a certain level of hubris. It takes some on-court humility to accept that you aren’t going to win the match on your terms, and that a change of plans is required. Iga (Saba too FWIW) is often guilty of sticking with her Plan A for way too long before switching things up tactically; the McNally match is one example, and the loss to Pegula in Bad Homburg was one too. You might argue that the assertive approach of “I’m going to play my game and not going to worry too much about what comes back across the net” is a champion mindset, and you would be correct, but there is a very fine line between helpful and harmful stubbornness. A crucial struggle for most of these top players is figuring out how to straddle that line.

For some players, there is far less internal debate about when to change things up, because all of their strengths point towards a singular game plan that they are far more adept at than any other strategy, and often they truly can beat anyone when they’re executing. Danielle Collins is one of those players, and Iga mentioned in the post-match interview that she knows exactly what to expect from her here. Big serving, flat groundstrokes, and all-out aggression are on the menu tomorrow. In practice, it hasn’t been enough to beat Iga in most of the matches between these two, but on paper this is a bad matchup for a couple reasons. Everyone knows by now that rushing Iga with flatter shots on faster surfaces is the go-to for those who can bring the pace, and also Collins’s backhand (her strength) will be going cross into Iga’s weaker wing. Swiatek’s serving has improved somewhat compared to last year, but Collins finished the Erjavec match with an 88% winrate on her first serve points, and she was off the court in under an hour. She looks to be in excellent form after a slow start to the season, and I think she pulls off the upset here. Collins in 2.

Clara Tauson vs. Elena Rybakina

Two of the biggest hitters on tour are going head-to-head here, and the difference maker will probably be Rybakina’s serve; that is, I think she’ll win if it’s on and she’ll lose if it’s off. Rybakina just blew Maria Sakkari off the court as she did Avanesyan in R1, but in both of her matches so far she’s actually been operating at a sub-50% first serve percentage. It’s such a massive advantage to automatically earn 1-2 free points a service game with well-struck first serves, and in Rybakina’s case will be crucial to minimize the wear and tear on her body towards the business end of the tournament. I would say that I don’t think Elena will put up 3 bad serving performances in a row, but the one concern is whether her first serve has been so unreliable because she’s nursing an injury. I think Tauson will pretty quickly expose her lack of movement from the ground if that’s the case. Rybakina in 2 or Tauson in 3.

Daria Kasatkina vs. Liudmila Samsonova

Samsonova won their only meeting at Indian Wells earlier this year in 3 sets. Dasha will get a slight boost from the quick surface causing her groundstrokes to skid through the court more than usual, but judging from her last couple vlog episodes she doesn’t seem to be having a really great time out on court and Samsonova is in very inspired form right now. Samsonova in 2.

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs. Dayana Yastremska

Yastremska was in big trouble against Anastasia Zakharova, giving up a break lead in the third and then falling behind 6-4 in the final set tiebreak, but she eked out the win in the end. Bouzas Maneiro made the third round here last year (retiring against Krejcikova), and she has a winnable match here to better her result. I think it would be pretty fitting honestly because JBM has made a lot of improvements to her game in the last 12 months. Her serve has gotten better, her attacks have gotten better, and she’s slowly becoming more confident playing on hard and grass courts. She’ll have to fall back on her defense and counterpunching if she wants a shot against Yastremska though, who is uncompromisingly ball-bashing anything that moves. Dayana needing a third-set breaker against Zakharova after taking out Coco tells me that she isn’t untouchable, but over 3 sets I don’t think JBM will be able to survive the onslaught coming her way. Yastremska in 3.