Jul 02, 2025

2025 Wimbledon - Day 3 Men's and Women's Singles

WOMEN’S SINGLES
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marie Bouzkova

Carson Branstine started off nervously, but put up a very good fight against Sabalenka in the second set. It was admittedly my first time seeing her play, but she has an excellent first serve and a powerful forehand. If (big if) she can stay healthy, she has real potential to do damage on tour; at 5’11” with some pretty good wheels, she has all the physical prowess she needs to compete week-in, week-out without exhausting herself.

Marie Bouzkova won a pretty straightforward match against Lulu Sun, whose biggest weapon (serve) seems to still be misfiring. Sun now sits at no. 90 in the live rankings, and it could take a while for her to build back up again at this rate. Bouzkova wins her matches with patient point construction and shot tolerance, but Sabalenka has no time for either of those things. She did beat Saba at DC last year, but those courts are far slower than Wimbledon. Sabalenka in 2.

Emma Raducanu vs. Marketa Vondrousova

A mouthwatering matchup here between a former champion and the hometown hero. McCartney Kessler fought back admirably from 6-1, 5-1 to force a second-set tiebreak, but Vondrousova was too tricky for her in the tiebreak. Raducanu has downplayed her chances of making a deep run at this event due to a lingering back issue, and Vondrousova putting her in very awkward positions for 2 hours probably isn’t going to make her back feel any better. Vondrousova in 2.

Elise Mertens vs. Ann Li

Apparently Ann Li once made the finals of Jr. Wimbledon, which I didn’t know about. I don’t think it’s going to help her against Mertens, who dealt with Linda Fruhvirtova pretty easily and is playing great right now. Mertens in 2.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs. Elina Svitolina

It was the qualifier Sasnovich who prevailed in a marathon match against Varvara Gracheva, winning 10-8 in a third-set tiebreak. Sasnovich was the one forcing the issue, piling up 78 unforced errors to 52 winners, and her persistence paid off in the end. Her reward is a matchup against Elina Svitolina, who didn’t seem at all fazed by anything Bondar threw at her. Aliaksandra Sasnovich hits a pretty flat ball and generates sharp angles that can be really effective on these low-bouncing courts, but her serve is really not a weapon and Svitolina will constantly be threatening to break. Svitolina in 2.

Katie Boulter vs. Solana Sierra

Paula Badosa did push Katie Boulter to 3 sets, but to me she still looked injured. Her movement was clearly hampered, and she wasn’t serving particularly well; I expect she’ll take some time off after this. Solana Sierra got subbed in for Greet Minnen as a lucky loser, and she made the most of her opportunity with a straight-sets win over Olivia Gadecki. It took her a bunch of match points to get over the line, but she did, and her tears of elation upon winning were heartwarming. She has far more experience playing on clay, but hits with a fair amount of pace and I think her game can translate pretty well to all surfaces. One potential weakness: her second serve looks pretty attackable, and Boulter will want to jump on it from 0-0. I like Katie here. Boulter in 2.

Cristina Bucsa vs. Donna Vekic

Vekic handled Birrell pretty easily, while Bucsa surprised Anca Todoni in straights, or at least surprised me. I couldn’t find highlights of this one, but Todoni couldn’t hold serve. Giving up 11 break points in 10 service games is not the play, and while Vekic has been questionable as of late I still think Bucsa has weaknesses in her game on grass that Donna should be able to exploit. Vekic in 2-3.

Leylah Fernandez vs. Laura Siegemund

The savvy vet won out on the day in Siegemund-Stearns, with Laura taking advantage of Stearns’s 31 UEs to get through in straights. Leylah presents an entirely different challenge, preferring to camp the baseline and redirect her opponent’s pace around the court instead of stepping back and taking full cuts at the ball. Her being lefty also means that Siegemund doesn’t have the option of keeping her pinned in the ad corner with backhand exchanges like she did with Stearns, so she’ll have a tougher time here. Fernandez in 3.

Olga Danilovic vs. Madison Keys

Keys vs. Ruse was the all-out war I suspected it might be, and Keys barely scraped by. Ruse appeared to injure her right leg in the second set, and I’m not sure how healthy she was to finish the match. Danilovic had a much easier time with Shuai Zhang, and if we were in the second week I’d put more stock into that, but I doubt the tank is empty for Maddie after only one match. Keys should keep blasting here. Keys in 2.

Jasmine Paolini vs. Kamilla Rakhimova

Paolini survived a hell of a scare against Sevastova, dropping the first set before turning the match around. Aoi Ito put up more of a fight against Rakhimova than I gave her credit for, but Rakhimova was able to eke out a 3-set win. I’m not super familiar with her game, but Rakhimova has never bagged a top-10 win in her career and I’m not sure this is the place to start. Paolini in 2.

Eva Lys vs. Linda Noskova

So Lys is healthy after all, but Noskova was pretty clinical against Pera. Noskova in 2.

Beatriz Haddad Maia vs. Dalma Galfi

Haddad Maia surprised me, getting past Sramkova in two tight sets. Galfi barely squeaked by Harriet Dart in the first round, and Dart is really not anywhere near Sramkova or BHM’s level. BHM in 2.

Renata Zarazua vs. Amanda Anisimova

Anisimova, er, double bageled (???) Putintseva in 44 minutes. The match was marred by a spectator who apparently was harassing Putintseva by making comments in Russian about the war in Ukraine, prompting her to ask the umpire to have security remove him. No excuse at all for this, although it is worth mentioning that the disturbance only came to light at 6-0, 3-0, during which Anisimova played about as well as anyone at Wimbledon has ever seen her. She should make quick work of Zarazua, and honestly has a pretty decent shot of making it out of her quarter if she plays this well. Anisimova in 2.

Diana Shnaider vs. Diane Parry

Parry took the scenic route getting past Petra Martic, but her level looks pretty good here. Her slices stay nice and low, and she can place her forehand anywhere. She’s going to have her hands full with Shnaider, who will surely pepper her single-hander with her lefty forehand. One thing I did notice is that the Parry backhand tended to break down whenever Petra hit her approaches there, and Parry actually came up with a two-handed backhand pass to set up what would eventually be the decisive break in the third set. I think it is too safe a target for Shnaider to be in any danger here. Shnaider in 2.

Viktoriya Tomova vs. Sonay Kartal

Did all the Brits get together and make a pact to win their openers or something?? Kartal upset Ostapenko while Tomova got a walkover from Jabeur, who was really struggling in the hot conditions. That’s about all I know because I didn’t get to see these matches, so I’m gonna skip the prediction on this one.

Ashlyn Krueger vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Krueger handily dealt with Mika Stojsavljevic, while Pavlyuchenkova had a tougher time with Tomljanovic than I thought she would. To disclose my bias, I’m a pretty big Krueger fan - she has the raw power and talent to make it to the top 10 one day, and I feel like she’s headed towards a breakthrough tournament pretty soon here. Is Wimbledon 2025 the one? I guess we’ll find out. A win against a savvy vet like Pavlyuchenkova here would be a pretty good result, and with Zheng gone and Paolini looking vulnerable this quarter is looking pretty open. Krueger in 3.

Naomi Osaka vs. Katerina Siniakova

Full credit to Katerina Siniakova, who did a fantastic job of keeping Qinwen Zheng from getting into a rhythm during their match. She mixed in slices, moonballs, dropshots, etc., and when she came to the net she volleyed as well as you’d expect someone with 11 doubles Majors to volley. Zheng came up with some clutch shots to force a third, but past her serve it never really looked like she was in control of the match.

Katerina gets more of the same in the next round against Osaka, but Osaka hits a much flatter ball than Zheng which will be tougher to deal with on a grass court. Siniakova will need to bring more of the same variety she showed against Zheng to frustrate Osaka out of her rhythm, but I’m not sure it will have the same effect. This should be one of the best matches of the day. Osaka in 3.

MEN’S SINGLES
Taylor Fritz vs. Gabriel Diallo

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard broke the all-time Wimbledon serve speed record and generally brought a much higher level to his opening round match than I was expecting, and it might have been higher than Taylor Fritz was expecting too. Fritz had to pull off a miracle comeback to avoid suffering a similar fate to 4 of his other top-10 compatriots, but he did: down 2 sets to 1 and 5-1 down in the 4th set tiebreak, he took advantage of some tight misses by GMP to steal the 4th set breaker and then wrapped up the 5th the next day after the match was suspended due to darkness.

Now that Fritz has moved past the 6’8” giant serving bombs at him, his next opponent is… another 6’8” giant serving bombs at him. Oh. That said, there are a couple crucial differences between GMP and Diallo that make this matchup different for Fritz. Diallo is faster than GMP, has a better backhand than GMP, and returns better than GMP (Fritz faced 0 break points in 5 sets). While Diallo’s serve is what you’d expect for a guy his height, it’s not “set the overall serve speed record at Wimbledon” levels of fast, plus he doesn’t do the two-first-serves gambit GMP often goes for. So, Fritz will have an easier time trying to break, but his holds won’t be as automatic as they were against GMP.

Basically, Taylor will need to be on his toes here if he wants to win. This could be a long day at the office. Diallo just saw a big server almost take down Fritz, so he’s going to be inspired heading into this one. His game is very well suited for grass, and he looks like he’s in great shape this season. My Canadian bias is leaking here, but we just saw 4 top 10 upsets in the first 2 days. What’s one more? Diallo in 5.

Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Oh shit, he’s back. Botic van de Zandschulp straight-setted Matteo Arnaldi, and don’t look now, but the last time he won a match at a Major he ended up beating Alcaraz. Will history repeat itself here? Perhaps. The next step will be facing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who was never really tested against Brandon Holt. ADF is a fair bit more comfortable on grass than Arnaldi, and he might have more success breaking down Botic’s forehand. ADF in 4.

Arthur Fery vs. Luciano Darderi

I gotta be honest, I have no idea what that was from Popyrin, but Fery is headed to the second round and this match is kind of winnable too. Fery is not the biggest guy on tour, but he seems quite comfortable on grass and Darderi just went 5 sets with Safiullin so he might be tired coming into this one. Fery in 4.

Jordan Thompson vs. Benjamin Bonzi

Welp. Benjamin Bonzi ruined everyone’s draws by taking out Daniil Medvedev, or maybe it’s more accurate to say that Daniil Medvedev ruined everyone’s draws by taking out Daniil Medvedev. It can be a bit sad to watch a great player slowly decline in both results and rankings, but Medvedev is really making it hard to sympathize with him. He’s just seemed a little too petulant (okay, a lot too petulant) on court this year, refusing to deviate from his Plan A and acting as if he’s the unfortunate victim of an opponent who’s happening to put on a once-in-a-lifetime performance. In this case, he also doubled down on it in the press conference after the match, making some completely unnecessary comments about how he felt Bonzi played far above his usual level (he didn’t), and that he wouldn’t be surprised if he regressed.

I am genuinely a fan of Daniil’s, and I do honestly believe he could still be achieving top-10 level results today if he was willing to change his attitude about the situation. A commonality among the great champions in this sport is a willingness to change your game to adapt to the current situation. Federer did it with his racquet tech/backhand in 2017 and earned 3 more Majors after a 5 year drought; Nadal and Djokovic both became significantly more aggressive in the latter stages of their careers because they accepted they wouldn’t be able to win more Slams playing the same way they did in their 20s. On a lesser level you have Tsitsipas making the brief switch to the Pure Aero and immediately winning a 500 with it, or Monfils winning a title in the Aussie summer swing by committing to a more offensive-minded game. I’m not saying Daniil will necessarily win more Majors in his career, but he also doesn’t have to be regularly losing in the first week of them either. If he is truly upset by his current level, then he needs to dig in, work hard, and try to make some sort of change to his game to maximize his current capabilities. Giving backhanded compliments to his opponents in the press conferences isn’t going to help anybody.

And so that brings us, somehow, to Thompson-Bonzi. Thompson needed 5 sets to dismiss Vit Kopriva, but once he won the fourth set tiebreak Vit kind of gave up. Jordan is pretty good on grass, but the problem is his body might be breaking down. He had foot problems that kept him out of action for a couple months this year already, and now it looks like he might have arm and back problems too. If Bonzi drags things out, the prospect of another long slog in the heat might be too much for Thompson to overcome here. Bonzi in 4-5.

Nuno Borges vs. Billy Harris

Borges reversed the result against Francisco Cerundolo in a rematch of their clash here two years ago, and he finds himself in an interesting spot here against Billy Harris. Borges has more tour-level pedigree and is the steadier player, but Harris is a lot more comfortable on grass and will have the home crowd behind him. Harris is a WC and Borges has stamina for days, so this one could easily turn into a marathon. Harris in 5.

Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Karen Khachanov

Mochizuki made a massive comeback against Zeppieri, winning a thriller for his first ever win at a Major. Unfortunately I missed this match and can’t find highlights of it anywhere, but the issues for Mochizuki with the upcoming matchup against Khachanov are kind of the same as the issues with the Zeppieri match except worse. Karen is a physical beast, with a huge serve and massive wingspan, and I can’t imagine Mochizuki is feeling too great now after back-to-back five setters. Khachanov handled Mackenzie McDonald pretty easily in the first round and I think he’ll do the same here. Khachanov in 3.

Kamil Majchrzak vs. Ethan Quinn

Berrettini didn’t look to be moving super well out there, and I’m wondering how match-fit he really is. No idea what to expect from this one honestly. Searle is really not at tour level but took Quinn to 4 sets including a 13-11 third set tiebreak, so Majchrzak might have the edge. Majchrzak in 4.

Cristian Garin vs. Arthur Rinderknech

Quote from my Rinderknech vs. Zverev prediction: “His serve-and-volley might give Zverev problems for a set or so…” yeahno, how about 5 sets?? Arthur Rinderknech came up with what will likely be remembered as one of the performances of the tournament when everything is wrapped up. He and his team had an excellent gameplan to counter Zverev’s passive game: constant serving and volleying, lots of dropshots, always trying to disrupt the neutral baseline rallies where Arthur would be at a huge disadvantage. Of course, it’s one thing to come up with a plan and another to actually execute it, and Rinderknech did so superbly in a match that was split up across Days 1 and 2.

His reward for doing so is a second round match against lucky loser Cristian Garin, who stepped up in PCB’s place and dismissed Chris Rodesch in straights. Garin has made the QFs here before and is pretty decent on grass despite being at his best on clay, but I wouldn’t really rate him better than Zverev and Rinderknech’s confidence must be soaring now. There is something to be said about the emotional deceleration after putting on what may be a career-defining performance, but I think it’ll be pretty clear after the first set where Arthur’s head is at. Rinderknech in 4.

Nicolas Jarry vs. Learner Tien

Jarry is back??? Things looked bleak for him after dropping the first two sets against Rune, but Jarry got better and better as the match went on, while Rune started fading away. He got treatment on his knee in the fourth set but still kept things level until deep in the fifth, when Jarry got the pivotal break with an insane diving volley. Tennis fans have a short memory, and it wasn’t that long ago that Jarry pushed Alcaraz pretty hard here enroute to Carlos’s first Wimbledon title.

It’s David vs. Goliath now, with Jarry standing about a foot taller than his second-round opponent Tien, but Tien already has wins against Zverev and Shelton (on grass!) this year so he isn’t intimidated by big servers. Tien’s precise, cerebral game is really interesting to watch, and the grass court will give a little speed boost to his normally underpowered serve as well as helping him keep the ball low against a much taller opponent. Tien in 4.

Joao Fonseca vs. Jenson Brooksby

Fonseca vs. Brooksby wasn’t the R2 match I was expecting, but I think it’s the R2 match we all need to see. It turns out that Fonseca is a lot more comfortable on grass than I gave him credit for, and he smoked Jacob Fearnley without much trouble. Jenson Brooksby also took what was supposed to be a close match and kind of just… dismissed his opponent, beating Griekspoor in straight sets.

This is a massive test for Fonseca, and I think it’s going to be very tough to predict. Beating Brooksby requires a lot of patience, and the mettle to not get bothered when he inevitably comes up with an impossible-looking counterpunch or makes you look silly with one of those two-handed dropshots. Fonseca is a great talent, but he’s also only 18 years old, and his maturity as a pro is still developing as evidenced by some of the random losses he’s thrown in this year. I’m going to feel pretty silly if Joao demolishes Brooksby the way he did Fearnley, but I’m just not sure he’s there yet. Brooksby in 4.

Jiri Lehecka vs. Mattia Bellucci

Lehecka dropped the first set against Dellien but was pretty clinical afterwards, wrapping things up with a 7-0 tiebreak. Bellucci has some pretty good shotmaking abilities, but they’re a step below Lehecka’s and his returning is not so great. Lehecka in 3.

Cameron Norrie vs. Frances Tiafoe

Norrie handled RBA surprisingly well, but he’s coming up against an even trickier opponent here. The obvious play is going cross to Frances’s backhand, but he can really lock down on that side and in recent years he’s gotten better at suddenly redirecting it DTL to turn the rally on its head. Frances also has a better serve than RBA, and he has the stamina to stay out on court however long it takes so trying to outlast him is probably not an option here. I’m kinda stumped here, maybe Norrie will figure it out. Tiafoe in 4.

Andrey Rublev vs. Lloyd Harris

Rublev played the tightest of tight matches against Laslo Djere in the first round, with the last 3 sets all being tiebreaks that could have gone either way. Lloyd Harris also played a bunch of tiebreaks against Zizou Bergs, and it has me thinking this could be pretty close. Neither of these guys is particularly good at returning, and the match could quickly devolve into a tiebreak battle. Rublev has more experience, but Harris is swinging more freely. Hmmm… Rublev in 4 close sets.

Adrian Mannarino vs. Valentin Royer

Royer got a gift as Tsitsipas retired after the first two sets with a back injury. Tsitsipas revealed that this is a chronic injury in his lower left back dating back to the 2023 ATP Finals, and that he “doesn’t see the point in competing” if it doesn’t improve. I don’t know the specifics of his injury, but a few years ago I hurt my back in the exact same area (lower left quadrant) and it was nasty. It took the better part of a year doing physiotherapy sessions and daily rehab exercises before I could turn my torso quickly without worrying about reaggravating it, and all the while it was healing I started picking up these compensatory niggles elsewhere on my body. I can’t imagine how anyone could push themselves through a similar injury while literally being a professional athlete, and it sounds like Stefanos is beginning to wonder the same thing too.

Valentin Royer is a solid player, but I wonder if he’s ever come up against someone as peculiar as Mannarino before? It can take time to get used to a game like Adrian’s, and the match might be over before Royer really figures it out. Mannarino in 3-4.

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Jan-Lennard Struff

Oh Felix. As soon as he dropped the second set to Duckworth I had a feeling he was in for a long day, and that ended up being the case. He did eventually get through, and while his form in that first match was not exactly inspiring there have been times when a tough opener has preceded a successful rest of the week (AO2022 comes to mind). FAA and Struff played at the AO, with Felix winning in 4 sets, but Struff will get a boost at Wimbledon with his proclivity for serve-and-volley. I’m not sure what it is, but Felix just has not seemed comfortable at Wimbledon since making the QFs in 2021. Struff in 5.

Oliver Tarvet vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Fabio Fognini nearly pulled off the unthinkable on Day 1, pushing Carlos Alcaraz to 5 sets in a four-and-a-half hour exhibition of shotmaking. Fabio hasn’t lost a step; he’s lost 2 or 3 steps, and despite Alcaraz hitting dropshots relentlessly to try and take advantage of Fognini’s lack of footspeed he still managed to chase a lot of them down. In the baseline rallies, he came up with slap winners seemingly out of nowhere, and Carlos had to dig a lot deeper than he and his team were expecting to pull out the win in the end.

After the match, Fognini got very emotional, and he showed great respect for Carlos by asking him for his T-shirt to give as a souvenir to his son. Fabio left it all on court in his final appearance at Wimbledon, and perhaps he feels a bit cheated knowing that he might have won the match if he had even a fraction of his peak agility. It might soften the blow for Fabio to know he may have hurt Carlos’s title odds by wearing him down in the early rounds like this, but I’m sure that’s hollow comfort. Tennis is a cruel sport.

I bailed on the writeup for Tarvet-Riedi in my last writeup, so here goes my attempt at actual research: Oliver Tarvet is going into his senior year at the University of San Diego and plays NCAA D1 tennis. His game is pretty similar to a lot of the top college guys - big serve He’s ranked outside the top 700 currently, but he’s still an amateur, so he is likely quite underrated because he’s not grinding pro events. Funnily enough, you can find a video on YouTube of him playing against Jack Pinnington Jones where the two of them are absolutely screaming their heads off after every point trying to motivate their team, and the pearl-clutching comments section below is a fun read.

Maybe not to the extent of the YouTube video (or maybe yes to the extent of the YouTube video?? I want to see how Johnny Mac responds to someone going “ACEEEEEE HOO HOO HOO HOO”), but Tarvet pumping himself up and trying to get the crowd involved might be his best shot here. He’s talented, but it won’t be anything that Carlos hasn’t seen before on tour, and it’s going to take something special to topple Alcaraz here. Alcaraz in 3-4.

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