2025 Wimbledon - Day 2 Men's and Women's Singles
MEN’S SINGLES
Jannik Sinner vs. Luca Nardi
Jannik Sinner occupies a weird place in the tennis zeitgeist going into this year’s Wimbledon. He’s the no. 1 tennis player in the world, and very deservedly so, but a recent loss to one of the streakiest players on tour has moved pundits to question his current motivation and energy levels. He has won 3 of the last 6 Majors, but they were all on hard courts, and he is trying to recover from a devastating loss to his biggest rival at Roland Garros. He has arguably the best and most successful coach in today’s game in his box, but he also has just dismissed his trainer and physiotherapist mere days before his first round match.
Is all hope lost? Has a Carlos Alcaraz sleeper agent infiltrated the Sinner camp to sow discord before the biggest tournament of the year?? Well, Darren Cahill appeared on the Served podcast a couple weeks ago, and he spoke glowingly (and at length) of Jannik’s level-headedness and maturity. That tracks with everything I’ve seen from him over his career, and it would surprise me if he enters the All England Club with anything but a stoic and workmanlike mentality. Perhaps he is a bit rattled after what happened in Paris earlier this month, but I think what we learn about his current level/mindset from watching his first couple matches will surpass any insight a podcast, analyst board, or interview can offer.
Journalists, Redditors, and Chris Fowlers alike will frantically search for the deeper meaning in every match result, personnel move, or sound bite, and run with whatever narrative they create, but at the end of the day only Jannik himself knows where his head is at. Speculation and player-based fandoms generate hype for big tournaments and are generally good for the health of the sport, but there comes a point where you have to let the questions get answered on the court. To paraphrase the American grandmaster Hans Niemann, himself a big fan of Alcaraz and Sinner, “[Tennis] speaks for itself.”
One match at a time. Luca Nardi is improving year after year and will hope to bolster Italy’s seemingly endless pipeline of talent, but for now grass is just not his surface. He is currently riding a 5-match losing streak on grass dating back to s’Hertogenbosch last year, and something tells me that a Sinner showdown is not the place to turn that around. Sinner in 3.
Chun-Hsin Tseng vs. Aleksandar Vukic
Vukic plays a pretty typical big serve/big forehand game, and his shovelly/pushy backhand gets a bit of a boost on the grass because it should skid through the court nicely. Tseng won junior Wimbledon back in the day, but his slight frame and relatively weak serve means he hasn’t been able to translate that success to the pro level. He is winless in 3 tries at Wimbledon. Vukic in 3.
Pedro Martinez vs. George Loffhagen
Martinez is far more comfortable on clay than grass, and he has also lost 16 of his last 20 matches, so he’s not exactly riding a wave of confidence coming into this event. George Loffhagen put up a hell of a fight against Opelka as a qualifier in Eastbourne, but he’s mainly been stuck on the ITF tour at this point in his career. Tough one to call, but maybe the wildcard will prevail on this one. Loffhagen in 5.
Mariano Navone vs. Denis Shapovalov
Shapo resurrected his career with surprise runs to his second and third titles in Belgrade and Dallas some months ago, but since then he’s regressed to his usual inconsistent self. He bagels Martinez on clay at RG, then blows a two-set lead against Misolic. He outduels Humbert in Halle, then loses to Cobolli who is not exactly a grass-court specialist. I don’t have the stats in front of me to back it up, but Shapo really seems to live and die by his serve. He wins entire matches with it when he’s on, and hits a double fault every other point when he’s off. I can only assume that his team will advise him to take a slightly more conservative approach against the slumping Navone, who has never won a tour-level match on grass, but who knows which version of Shapo will show up. Shapo in 4.
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Yoshihito Nishioka
This is Grigor’s first match since retiring against Quinn at RG, whereas Nishioka has retired or withdrawn outright from 6 of his last 9 matches dating back to Delray Beach in February. There is a very real possibility that both of these guys are just here to pick up a cheque, although as long as he’s somewhat healthy Dimitrov will be heavily favored due to his grass court prowess. Dimitrov in 3.
Francisco Comesana vs. Corentin Moutet
Corentin Moutet took out Taylor Fritz in Queen’s Club, then wowed the Mallorca crowds all week with a dazzling display of cat-and-mouse tennis. As if to drive the point home about his unpredictability, he then proceeded to snap a racquet over his leg like a twig in the final against Tallon Griekspoor and then attempted to do it again after losing the match. On average, he is still in pretty good form, and he should be able to get past Comesana who is primarily a clay-courter. Moutet in 4.
Sebastian Ofner vs. Hamad Medjedovic
Neither of these guys have played much grass at all, but Ofner only got in through a protected ranking and had to withdraw from Mallorca qualifying with an injury. This might not be much of a contest if he reaggravated the heel injury that kept him out in the first place. Medjedovic in 4-5 or via retirement.
Johannus Monday vs. Tommy Paul
Rough draw for Johannus Monday, who was the top-ranked NCAA player in the country while playing for the University of Tennessee. Paul played through an abdominal injury during RG and didn’t really get a chance to warm up properly, and his early loss at Eastbourne may have just been a chance for him to get some match play before Wimbledon without really going all out. Could take a little while for Tommy to shake the rest of the rust off. Paul in 4-5.
Ben Shelton vs. Alex Bolt
Bolt has raised his level a couple times on big stages at Majors, but I don’t think it’s enough to score the upset here. To me he often looks to be taking his forehand a little late, and Shelton will be targeting that wing quite a lot with his typical lefty patterns. Shelton in 3.
Rinky Hijikata vs. David Goffin
Goffin hasn’t played since Madrid with a foot injury, might just be here to pick up a cheque. Hijikata in 3.
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. Marton Fucsovics
Fucsovics makes it in as a LL after Coric withdrew. This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense, but Kovacevic’s results suggest to me that he is not very comfortable on grass. His topspin backhand is a lot better than his slice, and he might pop up short balls if Fucsovics starts picking on that wing. I don’t think the win is going to come very easily for Marton though. Fucsovics in 4-5.
Gael Monfils vs. Ugo Humbert
Monfils started the season hot, but at the age of almost 39 his body may finally be letting him down. He lost a thrilling 4-setter against Draper in Paris, and hasn’t won a match since. Going big on the attack against Humbert is probably the play here as he won’t be able to chase down the ball on these quick grass courts, but that isn’t what Gael is really comfortable with. Humbert in 4.
Brandon Nakashima vs. Yunchaokete Bu
Bu has been struggling to get anything going. He hasn’t won a match since Miami, and playing one of the tour’s most underrated servers is not going to help matters. Nakashima in 3.
Alexander Shevchenko vs. Reilly Opelka
Shevchenko has been struggling to get any wins lately, and he’s having a lot of trouble holding serve. Opelka should be able to blast him off the court. Opelka in 3-4.
Jaime Faria vs. Lorenzo Sonego
Faria makes his Wimbledon main draw debut after storming through the qualies pretty impressively, although his 3 opponents (Piros, Trungelliti, Jacquet) are all a lot more comfortable on clay than grass. Sonego’s offense is legit on any surface, and he’s made it to the fourth round here before. Sonego in 3.
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti is defending semifinal points here, and while his game has continued to improve since this time last year he is going to be hard-pressed to repeat that result with a potential Sinner matchup in the quarters. He also hasn’t played since bowing out of the RG semis with an adductor injury, but his form when healthy has been fantastic: since Miami, he hasn’t lost a match to anyone not named Djokovic, Alcaraz, or Draper. A lot of that has had to do with playing on his preferred clay, where he has more time to set up his looping groundstrokes (particularly the forehand), but they’ve become a lot more stable on faster surfaces in the last couple years.
Basilashvili, who is finding his way back onto the tour after some injury issues, is a tricky opener. He has one gear (fast), but that was enough to blaze through the qualies and Lorenzo could find himself in trouble if Nikoloz starts peppering his forehand wing. He’ll want to try and slow the game down with his slice and give Nikoloz a ton of different looks to disrupt his rhythm. Musetti in 3-4.
Jack Draper vs. Sebastian Baez
For the first time since the Big 4 era, the Brits have a legitimate title contender at Wimbledon. Jack Draper has pushed his game to new heights this year, and he’s been rewarded with two M1000 finals (winning one) and a top-4 seeding at this event. His serve has always been a big weapon, but now he’s slamming his forehand DTL and inside-in with impunity, and his team has worked hard in the gym to solve the fitness issues that plagued his career earlier. Sebastian Baez is doing his usual disappearing act after winning a clay tournament out of nowhere, so I don’t think he’ll put up much resistance here. Draper in 3.
Raphael Collignon vs. Marin Cilic
The former Wimbledon finalist Cilic dropped down to play some grass Challengers in the leadup to Wimbledon, which I think was a smart move. He won the Nottingham 125 and will face Collignon, who didn’t play any grass warmup events at all, or any matches at all, actually, since he injured himself during Hamburg 6 weeks ago. Cilic in 3.
James McCabe vs. Fabian Marozsan
I figured Marozsan would be a pretty good grass court player with his big serve and fairly versatile game, but I looked it up and he’s never actually won a match at Wimbledon before. McCabe beat 3 clay courters to qualify here, but that does mean he has match reps under his belt on these courts. Idk man. When I went to look up James McCabe I accidentally Googled “Jake McCabe” and got results for the NHL player. How many of these matches are there again? Someone in 5.
Jaume Munar vs. Alexander Bublik
All eyes are on Alexander Bublik to see if he can replicate the magic that brought him to the RG QFs and won him the Halle title a couple weeks ago. He’s serving huge, hitting bombs off both wings, and is committing wholeheartedly to using the dropshot as a weapon. The dropshot is most effective when your opponents need to stand a little further back to respect the power of your normal groundies, and Bublik has that in spades. This is a trickier opening match than it looks on first glance, as Munar will run everything down for hours and is capable on grass (he dragged Alcaraz through a 3-and-a-half hour match at Queen’s Club). A slight lapse from Bublik here could result in the loss of a set, but I doubt he loses the match. Bublik in 4.
Flavio Cobolli vs. Beibit Zhukayev
blurry could probably write a pretty good paragraph about these two, but I’ve never seen Beibit Zhukayev play before so I’m in the dark about this one. His recent loss to Fucsovics makes me wonder if he struggles against guys who make a lot of balls back in play, which is kind of Cobolli’s MO. Cobolli in 4?
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. Jack Pinnington Jones
Etcheverry is good on grass?? He beat Rublev in Halle and played a decent match against Khachanov, mainly because his forehand is huge enough to trouble his opponents no matter what surface they’re on. He’s still at his best on clay though, whereas Pinnington Jones seems to be allergic to the dirt (no clay events in the last 3 years). He did lose to Borges in one of the warmups, but perhaps PJ will play better when he doesn’t have to supply all the offense. Pinnington Jones in 5.
Marcos Giron vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Giron’s flat groundstrokes will penetrate very nicely through the grass courts, and his Olympic cyclist quads make it easier for him to get down low and redirect balls as needed. Ugo Carabelli has never won an ATP match on grass before, and this is a tough opponent to try to figure out. Giron in 3.
Hugo Gaston vs. Jakub Mensik
Hugo Gaston is having trouble stringing any wins together at all this season, while Mensik’s serving numbers are quickly approaching the tour’s elite. Mensik in 3.
Alex De Minaur vs. Roberto Carballes Baena
de Minaur has unfinished business here after he injured himself on match point in the R16, forcing him to withdraw from what was maybe a winnable match against Djokovic in the QF. Soft opener here against a guy who does most of his winning on the dirt. ADM in 3.
Arthur Cazaux vs. Adam Walton
I haven’t really seen either of these guys play all year so imma pass on this one
Quentin Halys vs. August Holmgren
Holmgren went through the ringer during qualies, going the distance in all three of his matches including a marathon against Yosuke Watanuki where he had to save 3 match points before prevailing in a final set tiebreak. The qualifying rounds are home to some truly epic matches that only a dozen people will remember, which is an unfortunate reality of professional tennis. Tennis is (IMO) the most beautiful sport in the world, and the lower-ranked players deserve a lot more recognition for their skill and their dedication to leaving it all out there on court week after week.
Another unfortunate reality of pro tennis is that unless you were playing a final, most of the time your reward for winning an epic match is having to play a bigger, badder, and better-rested opponent a day or two afterwards. Quentin Halys has a massive serve that he can use to good effect on grass, and he’s at a career-high ranking right now. Halys in 3.
Damir Dzumhur vs. Tomas Machac
Machac announced himself to the tour last year as the newest graduate from the Czech school of exceptionally clean ball-striking. His shotmaking and micro-short shorts are box office material, but he’s already retired like 5 different times this year and has probably played hurt on an equal number of occasions. Dzumhur is Speedy Gonzales out there and should be commended for his effort to grind his way back on tour after his ranking plummeted in previous years, but he also recently retired from a warmup event and has already played a ton of tennis this year. I wonder if the miles are starting to add up. Machac in 4.
Alex Michelsen vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
Michelsen’s career breakthrough came on grass, when he made the finals of Newport as an amateur a couple years ago, and after watching him it isn’t difficult to see why. He’s got a huge serve, hits the ball relatively flat, and his relatively plodding movement can be disguised with opportunistic net rushes and committing to ending the point within 2 or 3 shots. Miomir Kecmanovic is capable of playing beautiful tennis, but his groundstrokes are too inconsistent for him to elevate to the higher echelon of tour regulars. He uses a rather extreme grip on his forehand, which to me doesn’t bode very well against a guy whose shots are going to be skidding low through the court to begin with. Michelsen in 4-5.
Jesper De Jong vs. Christopher Eubanks
It’s hard to believe that Eubanks made the QFs here two years ago, because he has played his way almost completely off the tour in the time since. It’s sad to see such a genuinely nice guy and enthusiastic ambassador for the sport struggling, but he seems to have lost the confidence in his groundstrokes that brought him into the top 30 in 2023 and even his serve is falling off a bit now too. It’s still good enough to make this competitive, but idk. de Jong is more of a clay courter, but he’s in much better form than Eubanks now who is currently struggling to string wins together at the Challenger level. de Jong in 4-5.
Daniel Evans vs. Jay Clarke
The curtain appears to be closing for Dan Evans’ tenure on the ATP, although he showed some signs of life recently with wins over Tiafoe at Queen’s Club and Paul in Eastbourne. Jay Clarke has been popping off at the Futures level this year and also won a Challenger recently on clay, but he simply hasn’t been able to get it done at tour level at any point in his career. Evo should win this one pretty handily. Evans in 4.
Alexandre Muller vs. Novak Djokovic
Muller has seriously upped his game in the last year and a half, but Djokovic is taking no prisoners here. Wimbledon is probably his last chance to win a Major, and as Alcaraz/Sinner start entering their primes Novak is going to lay it all out on the line for one last trophy lift. Djokovic in 3.
WOMEN’S SINGLES
Mirra Andreeva vs. Mayar Sherif
The tennis world already knew who Mirra Andreeva was at this time last year, but she was still searching for her maiden title and most thought it’d be a couple years before she reached true Major contender status. She has forced everyone to dramatically accelerate their timelines since then; this year, she already has 2 WTA 1000s this year, and is tantalizingly close to a top-5 ranking.
At the same time, she is still very much a teenager. She is still prone to emotional outbursts, like sailing a ball into the crowd during her loss to Frech in Berlin or flinging her racquet towards the umpire chair during her loss to Noskova in Bad Homburg. I can’t help but wonder if this is still some residual frustration from her shock loss to Lois Boisson in Paris last month; she blew a break lead in both sets, and everyone in the 10,000+ strong crowd was letting her know just how much they enjoyed seeing it. Those kinds of losses have a way of leaving a mark on you, and although Mirra will grow from the experience it’s understandable if she’s taking a little longer to process the emotions during the uncompromising grind of the tour.
A year ago, Mirra lost in the first round here, falling apart against Brenda Fruhvirtova after dominating the first set. She won’t make the same mistake a year later, and her opponent’s game is a lot less suited for grass this time around. Andreeva in 2.
Jil Teichmann vs. Lucia Bronzetti
Neither of these players has ever won a match at Wimbledon before, so someone is breaking the goose-egg here. Further, Bronzetti has lost her last 5 matches in a row, whereas Teichmann has some wins at the lower level but hasn’t really fared much better at tour level these last few months. Teichmann is a crafty left-hander who uses different spins to work the point, whereas Bronzetti is a more straightforward baseline grinder. I think this will be pretty close, but I tend to side with the player who has more variety on grass. Teichmann in 3.
Hailey Baptiste vs. Sorana Cirstea
Hailey Baptiste’s game has really been coming together lately, and she finds herself making her Wimbledon main draw debut as a result. She hits her backhand extremely flat, but she seems pretty accurate with it, and she spreads the court pretty well with her forehand. I think she’ll frustrate Cirstea, who’s been slumping since an ankle injury forced her to miss most of the clay season and has hinted at impending retirement. Baptiste in 2.
Anastasia Potapova vs. Magdalena Frech
Potapova withdrew from Berlin qualies and hasn’t been seen since, so her health is a big question mark. Frech hasn’t been doing so great this season, but the scorelines have been a lot closer in her last few matches against a murderer’s row of grass court opponents: Vondrousova, Shnaider, Anisimova, Tauson… at a certain point you do need to be able to beat who’s in front of you though, and this will be a good test for Magdalena. Frech in 2.
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Alexandra Eala
A tragic first-round draw that will likely have ramifications on how this entire quarter unfolds. Alex Eala has been a revelation this year, taking out several big names in an unprecedented Miami run and making her first WTA final in Eastbourne on Saturday. She ultimately blew four championship points in a thrilling third-set tiebreak against Maya Joint, but the signs are all pointing up for the pride of Philippines tennis (when your president starts tweeting about you before your first career final, you know shit is getting serious).
Krejcikova, of course, is the defending champion, although there are some questions surrounding her fitness as the title defense gets underway. She withdrew from Eastbourne after only playing a couple matches, and didn’t look to be taking full swings at the ball in the matches she did play. It’s possible that she was pulling her punches to get some reps on the surface and recover her timing, or maybe she feels a lot of pressure to return to SW19 and is rushing her comeback. If she’s healthy, she’s, well, a Wimbledon title contender, with smooth ballstriking and the forecourt acumen to play a suffocating offensive game.
One thing to note is that Eala has played a ton of tennis as of late. She’s been getting wildcards galore, played 14 singles matches in June, and until recently was also playing doubles in most of the events she entered too. At only 20 years old, the mid-season dropoff in stamina can be precipitous. I’ll say Krejcikova in 3.
Caroline Dolehide vs. Arantxa Rus
Tricky matchup on paper for Dolehide here as the lefty Rus will naturally target her much weaker backhand. However, Rus is 5-12 at tour level on the year (including qualies), whereas Dolehide has been picking up some decent wins here and there and staying competitive in the losses. Caroline is also pretty adept at serve and volleying from her doubles background so she should get an advantage there. Dolehide in 2.
Veronika Kudermetova vs. Lin Zhu
Zhu Lin is working her way back onto the tour after missing the back half of last year with a foot injury, but Kudermetova is finding her game again after briefly being surpassed in the rankings by her younger sister. Classic elder sibling spite motivation. Kudermetova in 2.
Petra Kvitova vs. Emma Navarro
Kvitova announced she is retiring after the U.S. Open, which is really unfortunate but makes sense given she just can’t keep up with the speed of the game after her maternity leave. I am glad she’s able to go out on her own terms - her career (or worse, her life) could have easily been ended after she was stabbed during a home invasion in 2016 - and I’m admittedly still a little gutted she wasn’t able to pull out the win in the 2019 AO final to get one post-comeback Slam. Hopefully Wimbledon prepares a special sendoff of some sort for the two-time champion. Navarro in 2.
Karolina Muchova vs. Xinyu Wang
Karolina Muchova is back… sorta. She is exclusively slicing her backhand as she continues to recover from a left wrist injury that caused her to miss basically all of the clay swing. While there may be some cause for optimism - look at how much better Moutet has been playing ever since he added some aggression during the brief period where he had to switch to a one-hander - the pill is a lot more difficult to swallow when you consider all the other ailments that Muchova has had to deal with. Untimely injuries have truly ravaged Muchova’s career, and it’s a real shame. She produces brilliant tennis when she’s on.
Xinyu Wang came out of nowhere to give Marketa Vondrousova her toughest match enroute to the Berlin title, but nerves got the better of her in the final. Nerves won’t be as much of an issue here, although she’ll have to be on her toes because Muchova will throw every trick in the book at her to work around her current handicap. Wang in 3.
Zeynep Sonmez vs. Jaqueline Cristian
I haven’t seen either of these two play in quite a while so uhhh i dunno
Suzan Lamens vs. Iva Jovic
Iva Jovic is the youngest player in the top 100, and she’s proving she belongs there. Between the Ilkley 125 and qualies Jovic has won 8 matches in a row heading into this one, and she’s been tearing it up at the lower levels for the last year now. As she continues to improve, Jovic’s breakout is looking more and more like a question of “when”, not “if”. Lamens has not been particularly great since a semifinal run in Rouen back in April, and I think the Jovic train is still gathering steam. Jovic in 3.
Priscilla Hon vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
Hon saved 5 match points against Mboko to qualify, so she’ll be swinging freely here. The problem is that Ekaterina Alexandrova swings freely in every match she plays, and she’s especially good at it on grass. Alexandrova in 2.
Magda Linette vs. Elsa Jacquemot
Elsa Jacquemot has been playing a ton of tennis to try and force her way onto the tour, although ultimately she still is searching for her first top 50 win. She could get it here, as Linette had to withdraw from Eastbourne with what looked like a pretty painful knee injury, but Magda is more than capable of handling Elsa on the grass courts if she’s healthy. Linette in 2 or Jacquemot by retirement.
Alycia Parks vs. Belinda Bencic
Bencic started the season very promisingly, but she hasn’t been doing so hot lately. She suffered an arm injury that took her out of Rome and RG, and then she got a bad draw (Alexandrova) in the one grass warmup she did play. That makes it very difficult to gauge her level heading into Wimbledon, but Alycia Parks’s level is a lot easier to gauge, and it isn’t good. She lost both warmup matches to players well below her ranking, and in general has been extremely inconsistent all year. Parks has huge groundstrokes and one of the fastest first serves on tour, but double faults have been a glaring issue for her entire career and she still hasn’t really figured out a way to harness her power. If she can pin Bencic in her forehand corner and force short balls from that side I don’t think there’s much Belinda can do, but I have doubts Alycia will be able to consistently do that for 2 sets out of 3. Bencic in 3.
Katie Volynets vs. Tatjana Maria
Table tennis fans may lament that there’s no such thing as a chopper in regular tennis, but they ain’t seen nothing yet. Tatjana Maria, at nearly 38 years old, is a WTA 500 champion, and I couldn’t be happier for her. Unique playstyles are good for the game and for the overall level of the tour, and I dare say no player is more unique than Maria. A player who slices 95% of her groundstrokes sticks out like a sore thumb in today’s power baseliner meta, but she has made it work and is in the midst of a staggering late-career renaissance.
That brings us to Wimbledon, where Maria made the semifinals 3 years ago, and her opening round match against Katie Volynets. Volynets nearly worked her way into the top 50 last summer, but she’s struggled with arm issues in the months since and is currently on a 4-match losing streak. She can win here (as can most of Maria’s opponents, tbh), but it’s going to be a slog, and the mountain always looks just a little bit steeper when you’re running low on confidence. Maria in 2.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs. Jessica Pegula
After her recent performance in Bad Homburg, Pegula might be the second favorite to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish behind Saba. Everything she does on court is so calculated and methodical; her swings seem infinitely repeatable, she always looks like she’s well-balanced, and she compensates for her slightly slower footspeed with a willingness to reset the point a little earlier than most and some excellent anticipatory skills. Her lack of any major weapons is always the knock on her game, but for the time being she’s playing as well as she ever has. JPeg in 2.
Iga Swiatek vs. Polina Kudermetova
Iga Swiatek seems to really be struggling mentally. She hasn’t won a title in over a year, and when she lost the Bad Homburg final to JPeg the other day she was visibly upset during the trophy ceremony. On some level, it’s good to see how deeply she still cares deeply about her results, but I don’t think anyone was wondering if the fire had gone out for her. Some perspective for her (and her fans) may be helpful here: Iga is still a top-5 player in the world, she’s made the semis of both Majors so far this year, and really the only ones beating her at all are the top guns or the glass cannons who can blast her off the court (Penko, Collins, Keys). She will very likely qualify for Riyadh again this year, and she’s still got several more years of her prime to chase big results.
Polina Kudermetova started the year hot, nearly shocking Sabalenka in the Brisbane final as a qualifier, but her results have seriously cooled off since then. She enters Wimbledon on a 6-match losing streak (fun fact: her sister was responsible for 2 of those losses) and Iga hsa never lost in the first round of a Major. Swiatek in 2.
Caty McNally vs. Jodie Burrage
A matchup between two players who are attempting to hit the comeback trail, McNally after elbow surgery and Burrage after surgeries to her wrist and ankle. Neither player has really posted inspiring results at tour level, but McNally has been more committed to the ITF-level grind and has earned a lot of lower-level wins this year. That isn’t necessarily Burrage’s fault, as I don’t know what her financial situation is like, and the allure of quickly earning ranking points from going on a PR run at tour level is pretty tempting, but I think McNally will be sharper and more match-fit here. McNally in 3.
Camila Osorio vs. Danielle Collins
I kind of forgot Collins existed, my bad. Neither of these two won a match in the lead-up to Wimbledon, but Collins is historically a lot more comfortable on grass. Collins in 2.
Veronika Erjavec vs. Marta Kostyuk
Not at all familiar with Erjavec’s game so this isn’t gonna be much of a prediction. Kostyuk had to play Navarro twice in the warmup events and lost both times, but she’s historically been pretty decent on grass. Kostyuk in 3, I guess.
Clara Tauson vs. Heather Watson
Clara Tauson has finally seemed to bury the fitness issues that plagued the earliest part of her career (reminder: she is still only 22, somehow), and she’s knocking on the door of the top 20 as a result. Heather Watson is playing Wimbledon for the 15th time, so she’s well-acquainted with the venue by now, but I don’t think she has any answers to Tauson’s power. Tauson in 2.
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Nina Stojanovic
Kalinskaya has been pretty choosy with the events she’s played this year, possibly to lessen the load on her body after an injury-plagued end to her 2024/beginning of her 2025 season. Stojanovic is playing a ton of events to try and grind her way back up to the main tour after a lengthy layoff and did very well to qualify here; Rebeka Masarova is pretty legit on grass and Joanna Garland is really talented, but Stojanovic straight-setted them both. However, Nina has never snagged a win against a player of a health Kalinskaya’s calibre in recent times.
Maria Sakkari vs. Anna Blinkova
Maria Sakkari has fallen out of the top 75, and she’s got to try and pull out of this tailspin before she finds herself off the tour completely. Her serving numbers have gotten worse, her returning numbers have gotten worse, she’s picking fights with Yulia Putintseva, and she just looks devoid of any confidence on court these days. Both of these two put up decent showings in their last grass warmup, and I think they’re pretty close right now. Expect a battle. Sakkari in 3.
Elina Avanesyan vs. Elena Rybakina
Rybakina is rounding back into form, and this is peak servebot territory. Avanesyan is struggling to win any matches and has also played a very sparing schedule this year. Wonder if she’s burnt out or trying to nurse an injury on the fly. Rybakina in 2.
Daria Kasatkina vs. Emiliana Arango
Not sure what to make of Dasha’s level these days. She went on a nice little run at RG, losing to Andreeva in the fourth round, but she hasn’t won a single match on grass despite it historically being her best surface. Kasatkina’s serve is painfully slow compared to her peers, but grass gives it just enough of a boost for it to annoy some of her opponents. The good news for Dasha is that while she lost three consecutive first-round matches in the grass warmups, Arango lost three consecutive first-round qualifying matches in the grass warmups, and she doesn’t exactly have the pedigree on the surface to write that off as an anomaly. Kasatkina in 2.
Irina-Camelia Begu vs. Kaja Juvan
Are there seriously this many people on tour? I’m beginning to think this is some kind of prank. Begu has not played since retiring in her first round match at RG, whereas Juvan sped through 3 rounds of qualies without losing a set. Begu might not be taking this so seriously. Juvan in 2.
Yuliia Starodubtseva vs. Francesca Jones
Fran Jones deserves all the credit in the world for overcoming ectrodactyly ectodermal dysplasia (Google it) to make it as a professional tennis player, and she’s enjoying her best season statistically to boot. Her story is inspirational to people with disabilities around the globe, and the wildcard here is a well-deserved nod to her improved form.
The home crowd will be cheering their player on, but the conditions are not stacking up in Jones’s favor here. It feels mean to dissect it like this, but on court she basically has the weaknesses that you would expect from a person with EED: fewer toes (Fran only has 7) means issues with changing direction quickly, and lower-functioning sweat glands means a higher risk of overheating (earlier this year, Fran collapsed during a match in Bogota). Therefore, playing on a slick grass court in the middle of an unprecedented London heatwave is going to be an uphill battle for Fran, and Starodubtseva is pretty solid from the baseline. Starodubtseva in 2.
Maya Joint vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Maya Joint won the second title of her career in Eastbourne, and boy did she have to work for it: she came back from 5-2 down in the final-set tiebreak and saved four championship points (one with a ridiculous sliding forehand to keep the rally alive) before finally prevailing 12-10. The sky’s the limit for Joint, who is suddenly knocking on the door of the top 30, but this is a very difficult opener for her Wimbledon debut. Liudmila Samsonova has the serve, the forehand, and the touch that makes you think she’ll win a Major one day. The past few years on tour have suggested she can’t actually sustain her peak level long enough to win 7 matches in a row, but her name is definitely not one Maya would have been hoping to see beside hers when the draw was released. Also wondering how much gas the 19-year-old Joint has left in the tank after spending nearly 10 hours on court in Eastbourne. Samsonova in 2-3.
Sofia Kenin vs. Taylor Townsend
Townsend has some of the best hands on either tour, and it’s great to see that she’s still willing to grind through the singles qualies even though she’s the defending champ in doubles. Her serve-and-volley game is perfect for grass courts, whereas Kenin has looked pretty vulnerable on the surface so far. Townsend in 2.
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs. Ella Seidel
Good lord how many of these matches are there. JBM took out Vondrousova in the first round here last year and rode that momentum to the third round, then repeated that result in the US Open. She hasn’t really been able to build much more on that success, but she’s been playing very solid this year. Seidel, at only 20, is more of an unknown commodity on the big stage, but she hits extremely hard and has great mechanics off both wings. I’m expecting a breakthrough performance from her at some point, but I’m not sure if this is going to be it. JBM in 3.
Victoria Azarenka vs. Anastasia Zakharova
idc
Dayana Yastremska vs. Coco Gauff
Wimbledon was the scene of Coco Gauff’s coming-out party to the tennis world in 2019, back when people still thought Alcaraz was the name of a prison and nobody knew what an mRNA vaccine was. Amidst up-and-down results and impossible expectations from American sports media, Coco has truly matured into a generational talent, although her rise to stardom hasn’t quite been the one people predicted. There are still some weaknesses in the Gauff game - the forehand and the second serve are the obvious ones - but she has managed to work around them with lots of excellent mid-match problem-solving and some very smart tweaks by her coaching team. Simplify the service motion, focus on the backhand exchanges, hang further back in the court and run for the ball like your life depends on it. These seem like obvious ideas in hindsight, but it takes a smart team to implement these changes in a way that doesn’t compromise the rest of their player’s game, and it takes a very special player to stick with the plan and ride it to as much success as Coco has.
Fans will argue until the end of her career whether these adjustments have helped (by providing immediate boosts that propelled her to success) or hurt (by papering over underlying issues that never got addressed) Coco’s success in the long run. I’ll make jokes about her double faulting woes now and again, but ultimately I’m in the “helped” camp, and in general I feel that pundits or forum-dwellers who rag on about how they “can’t believe Coco doesn’t just fix her forehand/serve/etc.” are devaluing the player’s own self-awareness. For one thing, there isn’t a singular blueprint that Coco’s team could follow to immediately solve all the technical issues she has; for a pro with tens of thousands of practice hours already in the bank, any change to their foundation carries a degree of risk, and Brad Gilbert alluded to this when he first joined her coaching team in 2023. That leads to the main point: if Gauff was able to bag 2 Majors (+1 in doubles), a WTA Finals title, and the no. 2 ranking in the world without “fixing” her forehand, is it really something that needs fixing? Maybe a dramatic technical overhaul of the stroke is what’s needed to catapult her to the calendar Slam in 2027, or maybe it would just irreparably mess up her timing, or cause a nagging injury from the sudden change in mechanics. Necessity is the mother of invention, and from what I can see, Gauff’s team doesn’t really feel a need to make big changes to any of her strokes at the moment. Statistically, she has improved year over year, is winning big titles, and is even starting to reverse some of the H2Hs (Iga) that haunted her earlier in her career. Coco is as mindful of her long-term prospects as her personnel and her fans, and I think you have to trust that a decision to not make adjustments is as rooted in the long-term outlook as a decision to make adjustments.
Now that I’ve spent the last two paragraphs singing Coco Gauff’s praises, it’s time for me to start convincing everyone that the upset is possible here. Dayana Yastremska is exactly the kind of player you don’t want to see at Wimbledon if you’re struggling with your second serve and you have a big, loopy forehand. Yastremska just made the final of Nottingham, losing to Kessler while playing in what appeared to be a hurricane, and lost in 3 to Eala at Eastbourne. She eats lollipop second serves for breakfast, and she can knock the cover off the ball in rallies. Coco does hold a 3-0 H2H, but when these two met in Madrid earlier this year, Yastremska bagelled Coco in the first set before Coco won the second and then squeaked out the third 7-5. So, she knows it is possible to win against Coco, the question is whether she’s in the form to do it.
My pick is Yastremska in 3. It’s been 15 years since a woman won Roland Garros and then lost in the first round of Wimbledon later that year, but it looks like a perfect storm might be brewing here. Let’s see if Coco’s defense can weather it.