2025 Wimbledon - Day 10 Men’s and Women’s Singles 🐢🚫

MEN’S SINGLES

Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton

Wtf did we just see. In the first game of Sinner-Dimitrov, Jannik slipped and fell when sliding for a ball and appeared to hurt his elbow. He received an MTO but seemed totally out of it for the first set, losing it in a hurry. When he came back to his senses, he found a version of Dimitrov who was playing as well as I’ve ever seen him play on grass. His first serve was almost untouchable, and he was putting away +1’s with ruthless efficiency. When Sinner broke back to level the second set at 5-5, Dimitrov broke right back in the very next game, and then served it out. But, as we all know by now, in the third set tragedy struck. Dimitrov went down with an injured pectoral muscle, and it was severe enough that he immediately retired. He was crying as he left the court, and I don’t think anyone can blame him. Grigor has undergone a career resurgence lately and shown so many flashes of the brilliance that earned him the Baby Fed moniker in the early 2010s, but it really feels like every time he pulls his game together some other part of his body breaks down. He’s played 58 consecutive Majors but he’s had to retire from the last 5 mid-match with injury (a different one every time, mind you; it’s not like he’s rushing his recovery), and this is the most devastating one yet. No words to say here, honestly.

Shelton-Sonego was close, but Shelton was just a little better on serve and a little more willing to come forward when he saw an opening. He’s into his 4th career Slam QF and sets up a rematch with Jannik Sinner; these two met in the fourth round last year and Sinner won in straights, although the third set was very close. They also met at Shanghai last year and Sinner won in straights (although the second set was close), and they also met at the AO earlier this year and Sinner won in straights (although the first set was close)… do you see a pattern here? Without meaning to sound dismissive, I don’t think a lot has changed in this matchup since 2024, and certainly not since the AO this year. Shelton’s backhand is a little more solid and his volleys are a little better than they were 12 months ago, but they still are a tier below Sinner’s. His serve is arguably the biggest weapon on the court, but Sinner is the best returner in the game and will get a little help from the cooler evening conditions. In baseline rallies, Shelton does not have the biting slice that Dimitrov used to set up his forehand time and time again in the first two sets, and if he takes risks going inside-out on his forehand Sinner’s running FH is often a point-ender.

The big unknown, of course, is Sinner’s physical state. He had an MRI on his elbow and cancelled his practice court today, but Darren Cahill announced that he ended up doing a light practice anyway and felt fine. Obviously no coach would publicly come out and say “he’s playing on half an elbow, it’s gonna be tough to finish the tournament”, but I’m inclined to take his comments at face value. Jannik seemed more shaken up than anything when he lost the first set against Grigor, and assuming he would win the second if not for the fall is disregarding the incredible quality that Dimitrov was bringing to the match. A minor elbow injury seems like something that would affect Sinner’s power but not necessarily his timing and certainly not his reach, so even if he’s less than 100% he might still be able to win by extending rallies and passing Shelton off his sometimes-suspect approaches. Sinner in 3 or Shelton by retirement.

Flavio Cobolli vs. Novak Djokovic

Flavio Cobolli finds himself in very unfamiliar territory here, making the final 8 of a Major for the first time. The Cilic match was close, but he was just a little more solid from the baseline and also surprisingly efficient on serve. He’s still kind of figuring out grass as he plays on it, but his instincts are very good and he lands in what is surely the biggest match of his career as a result.

Alex de Minaur stunned the crowd with a 6-1 first set victory against Djokovic in some pretty difficult conditions, but watching the highlights it’s pretty clear to me that Djokovic wasn’t too interested in digging deep in the early goings of the match. Djokovic tightened up the ship, started making more first serves, and won the second and third sets without ever really looking too threatened. In the fourth set, ADM again raced out to a 4-1 lead, but despite holding break points to make it 5-1 he couldn’t convert, and in so doing he’d woken up the dragon. Djokovic took the last 5 games of the match with his trademark clinical, suffocating play.

These two have only played once before at Shanghai last year, and Djokovic won pretty easily. I would more or less throw out that result given the form Cobolli has shown this tournament, but ultimately I still don’t think it is enough to beat Djokovic. Novak isn’t going to give Flavio the same errors Cilic did, and his return, defense and court coverage are a step above anyone Cobolli has had to play so far. Cobolli finished with a 78% winrate on first serve against Cilic, but I think that number is going to drop quite a bit here. With Carlos looking slightly vulnerable and Sinner ailing, this is Novak’s best chance to win Wimbledon one last time and he knows it. Djokovic in 3.

WOMEN’S SINGLES

Mirra Andreeva vs. Belinda Bencic

Belinda Bencic played a thriller of a match against Ekaterina Alexandrova, culminating in a 15-minute game at 5-3 in the second set where Bencic blew 5 match points on serve before ultimately getting broken. With Alexandrova serving at 4-5, 30-15, Bencic left the whole court open after a running forehand, but her return clipped the tape and barely dribbled over for a winner. It was basically the only shot that could have won her the point in that situation, and two points later Ekaterina found herself shaking hands with Belinda. Such is the cruel nature of this sport that a 15-minute gladiatorial struggle to break can be undone by a net cord roller and a couple untimely errors, but Bencic deserved this match through and through. She did exactly what she needed to do to win, constantly getting low to redirect Alexandrova’s power and spreading the court very well off both wings. Her backhand DTL was her biggest weapon throughout the match, and she surprised Alexandrova with a few forehand winners when the ball came short to that side.

The matches only get tougher at this stage, however, and Mirra Andreeva is now firmly looking like the favorite to make it out of this half of the draw. Her performance against Emma Navarro was clinical, and she was so dialed in that she didn’t even realize she’d won after converting on match point. I said this in my last writeup, but despite being so young Andreeva doesn’t really have any holes in her game, and she’s blazed through her opponents so quickly that fitness will not be a concern here at all. Looking back over this entire season, Mirra’s losses basically fall into 3 categories: she got blasted off the court (Noskova, Sabalenka, Alexandrova, Anisimova, Tauson, Sramkova), she lost to Gauff, or she got mad and lost her focus (Frech, Boisson). It sounds reductive, but honestly I don’t really see a way she loses otherwise. It would take a gargantuan effort to outrally her from the baseline, and she is quick enough to retrieve against all but the very best aggressive baseliners.

Bencic isn’t going to blast Mirra off the court and I don’t think she’s Coco Gauff, so frustrating her into errors is probably the only way to proceed here. Laura Siegemund nearly pulled off the unthinkable by playing slice-and-dice against Aryna Sabalenka today, and honestly if the QF was Siegemund vs. Andreeva I’d have to give Laura a pretty good shot here. It isn’t, though, and while Bencic possesses a degree of craftiness it isn’t quite like what Siegemund brought to the table this tournament. Aside from not being able to score easily from the baseline, one other issue I can see for Belinda is protecting her second serve. She doesn’t hit it with a ton of pace, and Andreeva was 6/7 on BPs against Navarro so she’ll be ready to jump on anything that sits up in the service box. I think that Bencic has the court sense to make this one close, but it’s only a matter of time before Mirra zeroes in on her forehand. Andreeva in 2.

Iga Swiatek vs. Liudmila Samsonova

Okay Iga, I believe in you, I’ll stop predicting the upsets. I thought that Tauson would succeed where Collins couldn’t with a similar set of tools, but instead Iga dismissed her the exact same way she did Collins. Liudmila Samsonova is into her first-ever Major QF, but Iga is not the opponent she wants to see in it. Swiatek leads the H2H 4-0, and it’s been the same story in their last 3 matches. Samsonova’s forehand is fire, but her backhand gives Iga a relatively safe target to hit to, and Iga is quick enough to deal with most of her dropshot trickery. Camping on the ad side and blasting off-forehands is not really an option either because Iga is decent at picking off DTL backhands with the open court, or finessing even sharper angles back cross-court.

I know I was kind of low on Iga’s game in past writeups, but for years the book on beating Iga has been to rush her with hard, flat shots from the baseline, but Collins and Tauson both pack a punch off both wings, and Iga dealt with them both handily. Moreover, can only beat who’s in front of you, but looking back Samsonova’s draw was maybe a little generous. She’s played an exhausted Maya Joint, Starodubtseva, Kasatkina who seems off her game these days, and JBM who was in the 4th round of a Major for the first time. Swiatek in 2.