2026 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round Two - Day One Writeup 🐢

Men’s Singles :

Sinner vs Borges :

Sinner has become the classic #1 on tour. Enter a major viewed as a clear threat, and then play a first round that makes everyone scared. Miomir Kecmanovic can elevate to a good level, and Sinner had not played a serious match since Roland Garros, but the five set comeback is something not many people expected to see. There were two factors in the match that cause concern going forward : the unforced errors, and the blood on his shoe. Jannik looked rusty in this match. He shanked ball off both wings, and he had a very mediocre day with the dropshot. The blood on the shoe looked alarming, but he downplayed it in press. Jannik indicated that a toenail had ripped off and that it would not impact his play. This seems what the Spanish refer to as “falso” to me. I don’t know anyone who has ever lost a toenail and been like “I’m good and this does not bother me.” We are also quite full of blood at times as humans, but enough to soak through a 2 inch portion of a shoe is a lot.

So this next round, those are the two things to look for. Borges represents the same type of threat as Kecmanovic, but the match is similarly out of his control. When Miomir didn’t land first serves, he had trouble. When Sinner didn’t make errors, he didn’t score much. Kecmanovic’s backhand down the line was his best weapon in this match, and it’s actually a shot Borges doesn’t really have. Nuno has a flat hitting style and that can be way more dangerous on grass, but Sinner has given massive trouble to flat-hitters in the past (most notably De Minaur and Medvedev) so there may be some issues here in baseline rallies. Obviously grass means low-bouncing balls so topspin isn’t the biggest factor, but it can be tough to redirect and find offense if Sinner is hitting clean. I’ll keep an eye on Sinner’s movement, but his ability to elevate and win in these spots makes me think he’ll be able to navigate this. The lack of matchplay also is responsible for the errors, but every round he should get a little more comfortable with the speed and timing of the courts. Sinner in 3-4.

Brooksby vs Buse :

Ok. Brooksby has shown slight hints of returning to form for a few weeks now. He has finally won a match, and it was a match he was expected (in the markets) to win. Does that mean he can compete against anyone on tour now? That’s the question here. Buse is not at all a simple task, and he has also outperformed expectations this year when he’s an underdog. Round one against Nava was projected to be close because Buse is not yet sharp on grass, but only the early section was competitive. As Buse plays more grass, he gets better, so Brooksby’s new-found level has a tough test here.

Brooksby’s numbers against Vukic were scary good. 85% first serves won, and 95% second serves. 30/16 winners to unforced errors is solid, and 7-6, 6-1, 6-1 is a great scoreline to turn in. My hesitation here at awarding him an easy day is the difference in opposition. Buse’s serve has a lower ceiling than Vukic, but his base level is higher and he maintains that. He’s also known as a great defender who plays a very consistent brand of baseline tennis, and Vukic is actually an underdog in baseline rallies against most top 100 players, especially when he’s in a slump which has somewhat been the case this season.

Buse’s main approach to the game is classic clay-court strategy of wearing down your opponent’s backhand. I do think Brooksby is still not at the level he was before his suspension, but his ability to keep the ball low over the net and his ability to redirect down the line on his backhand will be useful here. The surface favors Brooksby and he’s trending in the right direction, so I think he will just squeak by. Brooksby in 5.

Carreño-Busta vs Jodar :

This is a rematch of the Roland Garros clash that saw Pablo go up 2 sets on Jodar before ultimately losing to a bit of fatigue. This being on a much faster surface and once where Jodar is not experienced, it is likely to be very close. Jodar’s first round against Felix Gill was a straight set victory that didn’t really inspire me much. I watched some extra footage of Gill before the matches because I was wondering if he could really pull off the upset; he has a nice solid game, but his backhand is a little too predictable to really do damage, and he doesn’t serve huge either. Jodar mistimed some forehands off of Gill slices, but overall he was not in trouble even Gill was able to get ahead. This matchup is somewhat different, but has similar elements.

The knock on PCB has always been his lack of a dangerous serve. He’s experienced on all surfaces and will time the ball better and have a more defined shot selection than Jodar, but if Rafa is behind he’ll still have some chances to break back. PCB has not done well at Wimbledon over his career and Jodar is a bit more sensible on court than Shapovalov even if he’s not as sharp on grass. Shapo also was carrying a shoulder injury and was forced to retire also, so this is a good spot for Pablo but not one where I think he’s a favorite to advance.

While reviewing my Gill optimism, I was reminded of all the stuff Jodar has already done on tour. He has out-performed expectations constantly and has a very complete game. The timing issues on grass are a concern, but his serving is better than PCB’s and I think with control of rallies he’s still a top 40 player on the surface. Jodar in 4-5. This has all the ingredients to wind up similar to Roland Garros, but neither player is on their best surface so I’m leaning towards the guy with the bigger service ability.

Mochizuki vs Quinn :

Mochizuki getting this result is very promising because he’s a good hardcourt player. Him being ranked high enough to get into qualifying for the North American tour could really work out for him. In the second round, he has poor timing. Ethan Quinn is capable of losing for a few events in row on tour, but he’s also able to lock into a very high level on his serve/forehand and stay there. He’s been playing well for a few weeks now, and a straight set win against Darderi indicates that he’s likely to continue.

This matchup is interesting. Mochizuki has incredibly placement when he has time, and he rushes the net often (and well). His main target has to be Quinn’s backhand, as his forehand is a quick swing that is difficult to read. Shintaro’s main weakness really is his serve, and he doesn’t possess a big delivery. This makes it an uphill climb for him, and my guess is that Quinn will be able to really apply pressure in sets where he serves first. Quinn in 4.

Hurkacz vs Ofner :

Ofner is quietly resurrecting his career the past few months, and a 5 set win against Medjedovic really shows promise and a return to health. He hasn’t had a retirement since April, and this next match might be long but it won’t involve many long points so he should be okay. Hurkacz was projected to beat Ruud, and it happened comfortably. Casper knows his strengths, and when he says “grass season,” he means golf.

Hurkacz is supposed to beat Ofner. He serves huge and Wimbledon is his best chance to make a deep run at a major. He’s also playing well. The reason I don’t feel confident is that his grass season so far has alternated wins and losses. There hasn’t really been a way for him to keep his opponents from scoring, and Hurkacz is a player who thrives when he gets in a lot of matches. That makes me think Ofner will be able to compete here, and with his serve and powerful groundstrokes it feels like he’ll be able to see the finish line in at least a few sets. Hurkacz in 5 is my guess. Deciding who’ll be best in tiebreakers doesn’t really feel like a scientific thing, but Hurkacz’s delivery and comfort at net is a bit better.

Paul vs Kwon :

Lovely performance from Kwon in round one. He was aggressive the entire match, and never gave Landaluce a break. Martin found some momentum a few times and played okay, but he seemed like he was looking to outlast Kwon and that opportunity did not arise. Kwon’s level is competitive here, I wonder though if this is not a bad matchup. Soon Woo tends to get pretty aggressive and play fast, but that’s exactly what Tommy Paul enjoys. Paul has a better backhand, and he serves a bit bigger than Kwon. It might turn into a shootout with how well and aggressive Kwon is playing, but I think he’s less capable on defense so Tommy will just squeak by. Since this is Tommy Paul, there is alway a random injury risk and a risk of him playing hyper-aggressive and flailing everything in the stands, but he was solid and workmanlike in round one and (despite the matches being 4 years ago) leads the h2h 2-0. Paul in 4.

Nakashima vs Struff :

As promised, Struff made a movie out of the Baez match. He was up two sets and seemed to be cruising, but then he ran into all sorts of lovely problems. It’s not really out of character for Struff; he has already had talent and power but has never really been patient or careful on the court. This next matchup is one where his lapses will be very costly. Nakashima is not the tallest fellow, but he has similar serve hold stats to the servebots on tour. This coupled with his consistent grinding style from the baseline make him a tough matchup for offenses. I think here Struff will be able to score quite often when he gets full swings or lands first serves because Nakashima’s one weakness is his lateral movement, but Nakashima’s level should stay slightly steadier in a long match. This is one like Jodar/PCB where the underdog is more comfortable on the surface, so I’m thinking this will be close. Struff being error-prone also tends to make people play a bit more carefully against him at times which can let him control rallies. Nakashima in 4.

Merida Aguilar vs Medvedev :

Merida Aguilar got a forfeit win against Ugo Carabelli while down 2 sets to 1, and we wish Ugo Carabelli a quick recovery. I’m not sure why I’m sayin we, as there is only me here. Merida Aguilar will provide some highlight reel points, but Medvedev was solid in round one against Cilic and should be fine here. Medvedev in 3.

Auger-Aliassime vs Prizmic :

Good win for Prizmic in round one. Walton looked more comfortable earlier but Dino has proven that once he finds his timing his power and consistency make a big difference. Here he has a grinder’s chance, and working for him is FAA’s tendency to wind up down in the scoreline early at majors. Felix’s backhand is always the target, but it will be difficult here to isolate that as well as he serves on grass. Prizmic is making constant improvements this season, but this is a match where he’s heavily outmatched on serve so he’d need a bit of a lapse from Felix from the baseline to really get by. FAA in 3-4. Prizmic is so good and works hard that it’s hard to imagine him getting shut out, but he hasn’t done a lot on grass yet so this is a huge step up in terms of defensive workload.

Mejia vs Zheng :

Great win for Zheng in round one. Cam Norrie is never an easy out and in front of his home crowd it was even trickier. This round is possibly simpler but Mejia has been a tough opponent this week. Him and Vallejo traded breaks frequently and it seemed like Vallejo’s serve was better but his approach was more aggressive than he was capable of. It resulted in Mejia gradually wearing him down and winning in a tumultuous 4 sets. Mejia’s game seems to be consistent baseline hitting and excellent defending. Him having a somewhat weak serve makes Zheng’s solid play from the baseline a good equalizer. Zheng isn’t a servebot by any means but he’s much more comfortable than Vallejo on grass and plays as stable but more aggressive than Mejia. Zheng in 4 long sets is my guess. I think he’ll be able to break where Vallejo did and hold where Vallejo couldn’t, and playing Norrie is great prep for a baseline battle. Zheng in 3-4.

Davidovich Fokina vs Maroszan :

These two met in Mallorca last week and ADF was able to outlast Fabian in 3. Maroszan got some leg treatment in that match and his level seemed to drop off from there after winning the first. The puzzle here is that Fokina admitted in press that he is feeling fatigued. If he isn’t bringing a full gas-tank, the outcome is very much in question because Maroszan likely will be able to win one of the first two sets. Since Fokina won his first round in straights, I hope he’s able to compete well in this match. If he hits a wall, Maroszan can win. Fabian’s serve and power on grass really let him score with ease, and last week’s champion usually does find a bit of “well I did just win a title” arising in their mind when things get tough. ADF in 4 or Maroszan in 5 is what I expect here.

Fucsovics vs Tien :

Fucsovics’ weakness is generally his second serve and his backhand, and these are two rough things to sport when you play Learner Tien. Learner is a consistent lefty and he tends to serve wide constantly from the ad side, so Marton is in for a long grind. Fucsovics is physically fit and fresh for this match after a withdrawal from LVA only a set in, but I think Tiens inexperience on grass is not likely to factor enough to allow Fucsovics to win. He has the game to go deep and battle, but not to close out or really score on Tien quickly. Tien in 4.

Safiullin vs Van De Zandschulp :

This should be an entertaining contest. Both players have easy power and huge first serves, and neither is really the best athlete but their baseline ability is not a glaring weakness. Safiullin has just beaten Rublev so there is a lot of buzz around his game, but I’m not sure this won’t just be another 5 setter even though Botic is less heralded. Rublev doesn’t move that well on grass, and he doesn’t serve as accurately as Botic. He hits harder and has a better backhand, but sometimes these things don’t really suit the conditions.

I don’t see a way for either player to really avoid dropping sets. Botic can shank balls on his forehand at times, and Safiullin’s backhand production can be a little awkward which can lead him to send it long when rushed. In the end I think Safiullin’s 5 setter in qualifying with Kym indicates a lack of defense that I think Botic can exploit. Very close match, but Van De Zandschulp in 5 is my guess.

De Jong vs Fonseca :

Hijikata came in with some good promise, but the curfew really cooked him this week. De Jong was the more powerful and aggressive player early in their match, and it landed him the first set. From there Hijikata started to wear him down. Rinky won the second, and was up 5-3 in the third when play was halted. I groaned a bit at this because it gave De Jong a chance to regroup. Sure enough, Jesper was sharp to open the match the next day, and he managed to turn the match around and win in 5. It was a well-deserved win, and it sets up a fun clash against Fonseca.

Joao Fonseca is heralded as a clay problem thus far, but his play on faster surfaces is very good. He has good hands at net, his power is always a factor, and his serve is pretty good. I don’t think he’s automatic here and De Jong should be able to get to a few tiebreakers if he serves well, but Fonseca adds an offensive element to the same defensive ability that Hijikata has. Fonseca in 4.

Rinderknech vs Damm :

Tarvet had one of the more unlucky runs against Rinderknech that I have seen in some time. It seemed like every time he had a setup the crowd next door roared or groaned randomly. He ate a bunch of difficult netcords and close calls, and when he finally got a break and went ahead against Rinderknech, he fell and needed an off-court injury treatment. Overall he had his chances, but it just wasn’t in the cards today.

Rinderknech served well, and played fairly consistent, but he wasn’t overwhelming. The chances that Tarvet had seem like things that Martin Damm can take. My least favorite thing is doubting the same person twice, but I like Damm’s serving ability here as much as Rinderknech’s. The big advantage I think Rinderknech has here is his attitude. He’s very calm and plays the same throughout a match. His lateral movement is a bit slow for tour level, but he has good racquetskill. On the other side of the net, Damm can be a hothead. He gets frustrated, and if he goes down in the scoreline it could be a quick day. If he’s able to get one of the first two sets, I like his side here in a long serving battle. I think Tarvet just needed a bigger serving performance in the big moments, and Damm also has slightly more reliable groundstrokes on offense. Damm in 5.

Tsitsipas vs Djokovic :

Tsitsipas played very well in round one, and I’d be lying if I said Djokovic looked automatic. Wu won a set that Novak did not want to drop, and he was competitive in the second half of the match in a way that makes me wonder if Stefanos won’t also have some looks. Tsitsipas pretty much always loses to his backhand, and Djokovic has done very well in this matchup as a result.

This will be the first test of Djokovic’s returning, because Stefanos is serving very well. I wonder though how much his serving changes when you change the opponent. Gaston is not a huge threat, and Djokovic is the guy who derailed Tsitsipas’ best moment on tour when he was up two sets in the French Open finals. He has had Tsitsipas’ #, and yet late in his career is exactly when Stef could maybe get some revenge. Hard for me to call for anything other than a competitive Djokovic win, because even with Novak looking vulnerable it would still be the biggest win Tsitsipas has had in a very long time. Djokovic in 4-5.

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Kessler :

It’s already midnight EST and I’m scrambling to get this up before matches begin so I’m going to go quick here. I’ll start working on day two after and write the WTA side first so they get a proper yapping. Kessler double bageled Olynykova, but this is a huge step up. McCartney always competes well and she has a complete game, but the only thing she’s been struggling with this season is her length when she’s being outhit. It tends to make her sail the ball long and Sabalenka is a good candidate to force that. Aryna hasn’t been mentally sharp lately and I think she actually will need to win a title to feel confident on court again, so Sabalenka in 2 competitive sets.

Ostapenko vs Ruzic :

Ostapenko winding up in a third with Dart is not a good sign, but she has another winnable match. Ruzic fights hard and plays consistent tennis, but the biggest weapon she has is her backhand and her serve isn’t that sharp. I think Ostapenko will get into enough return games to get by here. Ostapenko in 3.

Tjen vs Kasatkina :

Tjen continues her dominance against Fernandez, and it sets up a halfway winnable match against Kasatkina. Tjen has had trouble defending and moving on grass, but that isn’t necessarily a huge issue here. Kasatkina lacks power and tends to outlast her opponents, and Tjen’s experience at the ITF and Challenger levels mean that she’s very comfortable with long rallies. Her slice backhand is very reliable, and I think Kasatkina will need to really open up the backhand down the line often in order to win this match. Tjen serves better, and her forehand can clear the court nicely. I think she’s shown good signs with the 3rd set against McNally and the win against Fernandez, and I suspect she can be a little more in control if they get to a decider. Tjen in 3.

Gasanova vs Osaka :

Osaka had a scare in the second set after going down 3-0 against Jacquemot, but she managed to win in two. The only huge danger here is her fitness, because she had to withdraw from her last event. Gasanova hits the ball super clean and has great mechanics, but she isn’t the best defensively. I think it’s going to be very difficult for her to return Osaka’s serve here, and if she’s not landing good returns I think Osaka’s power on her +1 is going to be an issue. Gasanova is a dangerous opponent here, but I don’t think she’ll be able to show that. Osaka in 2.

Muchova vs Zhang :

Zhang pulled off a nice win against Andreescu, but this is too much to ask of her. Muchova has the serve and forehand power to expose Zhang’s movement, and her defensive presence is always a quiet factor. Muchova in 2.

Parks vs Sawangkaew :

Parks had the fastest serve of the day in round one, and her waking up is great for the draw. This is a very good matchup, and one I think Sawangkaew can win. Chwalinska entered having very little grasscourt experience, but she played incredibly well. She chipped most returns, played slices constantly, and her power was good when she turned it up. She was on her way to straight setting Sawangkaew when she injured her ankle/foot. Brave of her to gut it out, but she wasn’t the same after that.

Parks’ serving will make her competitive in any match, but I think Sawangkaew (once comfortable) moves the ball well enough to garner the errors that can be there in Parks’ game. Her coach has her playing more patient and it works great considering how hard she hits the ball, but when drawn wide Parks tends to go big and she hits a bit too flat to be accurate on the run. I think Sawangkaew will have to weather a bit of a storm here, but she’s a huge step up from Dudeney in terms of baseline ability. Sawangkaew in 3.

Siniakova vs Bartunkova :

The question here is whether Siniakova’s win was about her h2h dominance, or her overall level. Siniakova has been pretty solid since returning from injury, and while she’s not exactly dominant on serve, she has been able to apply pressure to her opponent’s service games even when she’s donating her own. Bartunkova will be happy to have snuck by against Stearns (who allegedly got a racquet with the wrong tension to play the third set), and she’ll be comfortable here against her compatriot. Bartunkova can beat just about anyone in one set of tennis, but she can also lose to anyone in one set of tennis. Even if they wind up in a third, I think Siniakova will be a small favorite, and getting to that third will be a tricky ask unless Bartunkova wins the first set. Siniakova in 2-3.

Krejcikova vs Andreeva :

When you believe something, you see signs of it. I wondered if Andreeva might just sneak another great run it at a major because she’s riding a freeroll wave of confidence, and then last night I saw a stat that she had the fastest average serve in the first round. Pretty interesting stuff. This is a really exciting matchup. Krejcikova seems rusty most of the time, but she’s capable of finding a Grand Slam champion level at a moment’s notice. She tends to lose the first set quickly when she’s off, but generally finds a good level in the second. This is the best early look (for my conspiracy theory Andreeva Wimbledon champion brain) at how Andreeva does against a bigger hitter on grass, but given her stats coming into this Mirra might be the one controlling rallies. Krej has turned in a number of amazing magical performances, but here I think Andreeva should win in 2.

Pegula vs Sorribes Tormo :

Welcome Back Sorribes Tormo. Pegula in 2.

Yastremska vs Bouzas Maneiro :

These two have played three times, but Bouzas Maneiro has won the two that happened on fast surfaces. She won in straights on hardcourt, and when they met last year in Wimbledon she won in a lopsided three set contest. This is honestly a matchup where both players hit huge but aren’t that consistent, and Bouzas has a bit more discipline and is a little stronger physically. Her movement and defense being a little better helps, so Yastremska will have to play a perfect match to win. The worry for Bouzas is that she can lose her timing for long patches, and when she’s spraying errors it tends to continue for the entire match. Based on their levels coming in, I like Bouzas in 3.

Alexandrova vs Tararudee :

Alexandrova should win this, but only if she serves well. If they’re in neutral baseline rallies, I think Tararudee moves the ball really well and her defense will be a factor. This is a spot where Alexandrova is the easy pick, but given her season thus far nothing is really guaranteed. Alexandrova in 2.

Maria vs Jovic :

Very big respect to Jovic here with this pricing (-320). The first meeting with Tatjana Maria is never easy. She has excellent slices and pretty much tests your patience and mechanics on every point. The good news for Jovic is that she has very repeatable swings, and being short helps a bit because she can get low to the slices. Her grass season is going great, and so far she’s only lost to big hitters. This should contain an overtime set given Maria’s skill and experience, but I think Jovic’s serving is just good enough to keep her out of trouble in the long run. Jovic in 2-3. I just don’t think she cracks under pressure, and most of her losses on tour have been arm wrestling battles with big hitters.

Bencic vs Wang :

Bencic was down an early break but rolled from there, finished 6-2, 6-1. She should win this match as well. Wang has great offense but Bencic has a similar level of offensive power and a bit more consistency in her game. Bencic in 2-3. She might have to outlast a hot patch but she likely can, and all her practice taking the ball early prep her well for the grassy bounces.

Parry vs Kalinskaya :

Kalinskaya’s backhand being so solid is a big factor here. I’ve watched Parry for a long time, and she tends to thrive when she’s the bigger hitter. This allows her to use her slice backhand more often, and then when she finally gets a forehand she assumes control of rallies. Kalinskaya hits harder than her off both wings, and while she can play a little impatiently early in matches, she can also elevate when she has to. Should be a close contest, but Kalinskaya in 2-3.

Sonmez vs Liu :

Liu is playing some solid tennis, but this is a strange time to play Sonmez. Zeynep has just played Li, who has a similar serve/big groundstroke offensive approach to Liu. It really helps to play the same type of players for a few rounds in a row, and Liu serves a bit softer than Li so Sonmez’s aggressive returning can pay dividends here. Since Claire is playing solid and moving the ball well, I think she’ll break a few times also, but Sonmez can win this one on the ground eventually. Sonmez in 3.

Sierra vs Gauff :

Initially I thought this was a tricky spot. Sierra is improving constantly, and hits well off both wings. She’s already had a close contest with Gauff on clay (losing in three in RG this year) and has shown some promise on grass as well. Now that I’m here, I’m having a harder time quantifying my suspicion that Sierra will be competitive. The thing about Gauff’s losses is they tend to be very much about Gauff. When she struggles, its errors in bunches and deceleration on the forehand/serve. In round one, she was solid though, and Sierra dropped a set to Bondar. Gauff won 88% of her first serves and 69% of her second, so while Korpatsch isn’t the player that Sierra is on offense, I don’t think Gauff will be helping out. Sierra has also gotten some lopsided dismissals this season, so I think the possibility to wind up in a third is there, but the most likely outcome in Gauff in 2 because she’s able to defend against Sierra.