2026 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round Three - Day One Writeup 🐢

Men’s Singles :

Sinner vs Brooksby :

Sinner accomplished the traditional #1 seed task of making himself seem vulnerable, and then followed tradition by rolling through the next round. He turned in a good performance against Borges. 22 aces, 4 doubles, 82% first serves won despite only landing 67%. He had 29 unforced errors, but 47 winners makes that look not so bad. The scrutiny will last on him for at least a round more, but straight setting Borges is decent.

Jenson Brooksby is another flat hitter for Sinner to compete with. He has a pretty good serve and solid variety for a guy who sort of is a pusher, and his approach to the game was pretty successful prior to his suspension for doping. These two met once in 2021 and Sinner won in straights on hardcourt, and I think there might be a problem here for Brooksby. He doesn’t hit with a lot of spin and tends to allow his opponents a bit of control. When you finally move him wide, Brooksby is able to infuse pace and hit some good down the line passes. The trouble with this “outlast” approach is Sinner is very good at playing 2-3 shot combos to move his opponent off-center and his net approaches aren’t very poorly-timed. I think the outlast plan is better on more rally-intensive surfaces, and Jannik’s heat or stamina issues don’t really seem frequent enough to guarantee their appearance just because it’s a tough match.

Brooksby is playing great and defeated both his opponents in straight sets, but this is a huge step up and I don’t know if he has the power on his groundstrokes to hit through Jannik’s defense. Sinner in 3-4. Brooksby can hang in there, but Vukic and Buse are not remotely close to the task here.

Jodar vs Mochizuki :

This is a great match. Jodar was saved by the curfew in round two down two sets to one, and with his second 5 set win against PCB in a row he’s through to this round. Mochizuki played last week’s Mallorca finalist and managed to win in straight sets. Shintaro applied pressure to Quinn the entire match and really never blinked. I’m a little confused on what outcome to expect here because of the surface. Mochizuki is at his best on grass and has just straight setted a guy who was one of the best players at a 250. Jodar is expected to become a tremendous player on all surfaces, but right now his movement on grass looks a little rough. Carreño-Busta has only won one match at Wimbledon in his whole career, and he was looking like he’d run through Jodar prior to the suspension.

I look at Jodar’s grass comfort as a when, not an if. He’s very solid and works hard, and round two was better than round one. Is round three where he really finds his sea-grass legs? Mochizuki is susceptible to heavy power and Jodar serves much bigger than him, so I could see Jodar winning in 4 competitive sets. At the same time, Mochizuki’s defense isn’t as good as PCB’s, so Jodar is more likely to be in a tricky shootout here but one where he can score easier. That all spells a Jodar win, but the PCB/Mochi disparity is also working in Mochizuki’s favor. He has more variety, and better control of the ball. Him blitzing Quinn is not a result that should be ignored since Jodar is still green on grass, but if we’re comparing things and rambling then Jodar’s defensive skill is a bit better than Quinn’s.

Overall, this is a popcorn match. Mochizuki’s aggression and net-rushes are absolutely going to give Jodar trouble, and he’s shown the ability to break everyone he plays (converting 49% of his break point opportunities on grass this season). At the same time, Jodar has a more complete defensive arsenal than Quinn and a better backhand. Jodar in 5 is my best guess. I really don’t see a way for Jodar to blow out Mochizuki, but it’s inevitable that he gets better match by match and Quinn had a number of break opportunities he didn’t take.

Hurkacz vs Paul :

Hurkacz hasn’t dropped a set yet, and it sets up a winnable but difficult match against Tommy Paul. Paul ended Kwon’s streak, and he seems to be playing decent ball. He’s won the last 4 matches against Hurkacz, but none of those were on grass. This match is pretty simple. Hurkacz will be even at worst as long as he lands first serves. He only won 41% of his second serves against Ofner, and Tommy Paul is a better defensive presence than Sebastion due to his movement and backhand. Hurkacz can ball and doesn’t just bail out of rallies, but his backhand length can be an issue and that makes the task simple for Tommy.

Outlasting Hurkacz is the plan, but that doesn’t always happen. If Hurkacz continues to serve well, he can get to tiebreakers and win them. Tommy also tends to play quickly at times and this can result in some random breaks of serve. I’d expect this to go deep, and for Paul to eventually win in 5.

Struff vs Medvedev :

Nakashima has better emotional stability than most of the tour, because the last round was infuriating to me and I was just a spectator. He had a bunch of chances to win, served for the match, and had a 3 point lead in the 5th set tiebreak. These opportunities don’t mean you win, but when they’re against Struff you sort of thing you can hang on. Jan-Lennard has huge offense, but he also makes errors and doesn’t make off because of the situation. This generally means that if you get the lead against him you can close out, but Nakashima fell victim to randomly perfect shots and Struff found them just at the necessary time.

For now, it’s Struff’s moment. He’s serving well, and his forehand is firing cross-court well. His backhand can struggle with errors, but he’s decided to mostly go down the line or inside out this week, and that’s actually letting him get to net a bit more because grass makes it tough for opponents to change direction even for slight shifts. His offense and power mean that he’ll score on Medvedev, the question is how often. Medvedev is generally happy to outlast offensive opponents and grant them control of rallies, and he’s had success doing this in the past against Struff so there won’t be much change. Medvedev 10-2 against Struff, and wouldn’t ya know it the most recent win for Struff was on grass. Before I award him a huge chance here, I have to note that they met in 2024 Wimbledon in Medvedev won in a comfortable 4 sets.

Struff is operating at his best level, but Nakashima really should have won the match. Daniil doesn’t serve well as consistently as Nakashima, but he has a good delivery and he may be happy to get into baseline rallies with Struff. I think Struff’s errors finally bite him here, and after two 5 setters he has to be feeling it a little. Baez got to a 5th with defense, Nakashima got there with consistency and serving. Now he’s playing a combination of the three. Medvedev in 4, but the hope for Struff isn’t dead because Medvedev can really donate random games/sets when he gets frustrated, and Struff’s decision-making can be extremely grumble inducing when it works on you.

Auger-Aliassime vs Zheng :

This is a great result for Zheng, but I think he’s toast here. FAA isn’t impervious, but he looks so comfortable on grass. He serves great here, he moves well, and when a player looks like they’re enjoying playing tennis rather than furiously worrying about the outcome they tend to play a lot better and a lot steadier. This is the case here for Felix, so I think even if he has his usual early errors he’ll win. Auger-Aliassime in 3-4.

Davidovich-Fokina vs Fucsovics :

Everything in my brain said Tien should beat Fucsovics, and the same region of brain (squishy part) says he can’t beat ADF right now. Fokina is coming off a title run, and he hasn’t dropped a set here yet. The squish doesn’t always get it’s way though, and the h2h tells an interesting story. Fucsovics and ADF played five sets in their most recent meeting at the US Open in 2022, and Fucsovics won their Rotterdam 2021 clash in straights. Fucsovics is a former Wimbledon junior champion, and while the expectations haven’t quite panned out, he has flashy skill and aggression. The aggression is what won him the match against Tien. Learner put solid returns in, but rather than reset the rally Fucsovics just went for sharp forehands even though he was off balance or moving back. It did remind me of the Nakashima match a bit with the sense that Tien would eventually win, but it’s a solid win for Marton.

ADF said in press that he felt tired heading into this week, but he’s won in straights twice so he should be starting to recover a bit. I would not be surprised if Fucsovics snagged him here given his fitness and current level, but he’s not the favorite. Fokina is serving as well as he ever has, and has a good enough backhand here to win those exchanges fairly often. ADF will likely wind up in a 4th or 5th here so it’ll be very good to take a look at his focus level and his physical state. For now, ADF in 4, but the h2h and the long run of ADF lend themselves to believe that this could be a crashout spot. But blurry, why don’t you just tell us what is going to happen? Me no know

Safiullin vs Fonseca :

Safiullin has been on the court for 15 hours and 53 minutes already. Fonseca has been out there for 4:50. It makes for a very difficult spot for Safiullin. His serve and power are good enough to score on just about anyone, but fatigue is a real thing and qualifiers do tend to crash out around this point.

The fatigue is one data point, but there is still a lot of tennis to be played. The one thing that makes me hesitant to just award this to Fonseca is his loss to Hanfmann earlier this grass-court swing. He got 2,2. That is a very similar player to Safiullin, and I might give an edge to Safiullin in the movement department also. I worry Fonseca has the skill and shotmaking to win this, but maybe not the defensive reliability when facing a bigger hitter. I’ve changed my mind twice already about who wins this. I really like Safiullin’s level, but I think given Fonseca’s serving ability and crisp offense he might score on Roman frequently. That’s going to make for a shootout, and as the match goes deeper I start to like Fonseca more because he has fresher legs. Fonseca also has a healthy use of the dropshot which can be rough on a tired player. Fonseca in 5, but I’m giving him a lot of credit here for being able to defend better than he did against Hanfmann.

Rinderknech vs Djokovic :

I’ve doubted Rinderknech twice already, and Novak Djokovic is here to bail me out and enable my addiction. I will doubt Arthur once again. Djokovic is one of the best returners ever, and he had a quick one against Tsitsipas last round so his legs should be feeling okay here. Rinderknech’s baseline game is quality, but his movement is not so great which makes me think Djokovic will be able to convert when he has control of rallies. Novak also is one of the most solid spot servers in tour history, so this is a spot I expect him to win in 3-4.

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Ostapenko :

Yay! I never really know exactly when Ostapenko will go all stompy and hit a million winners, but she usually turns in a good performance against top players so this is fun. She just zipped Ruzic in the second set and hit 34 winners to 10 unforced errors. She also won 88% of her first serves. The trouble in believing in her here is that she only landed 55% of her first serves. Sabalenka is going to give her massive problems if that number doesn’t go up, and aside from a late blink against Kessler she was solid. I could honestly see Ostapenko snagging a set because of her aggression and this being Sabalenka’s first really dangerous test, but Sabalenka’s serving should get her through. It’s too hard for Ostapenko to find constant winners against Aryna’s delivery on fast court, and Sabalenka has also added some defensive slices to her game which could be effective here in getting her just a few more puntos. Sabalenka in 2-3.

Kasatkina vs Osaka :

Tjen had good momentum against Kasatkina, but the tour’s #2 vlogger was able to turn things around. These recent wins are very crucial for Kasatkina, who has really slid down the rankings the past few seasons. This was a good run, but this matchup is not great for her. Osaka is serving well, and has the power to hit past Kasatkina. Daria tends to win by outlasting her opponents, and Osaka is good enough to keep points short. Osaka in 2.

Muchova vs Sawangkaew :

I’m not sure if I’m ready to say goodbye to Sawangkaew, but Muchova is in rare form. When Muchova is not playing well, she’s still in that dark-horse conversation for major titles. Here she’s coming off a title run and she’s looking sharp. Sawangkaew has good shotmaking and steady playing from the baseline, but I really like her more against an opponent who doesn’t have more power AND tremendous defense. Muchova should be able to hold serve easier, and while the quality of the rallies will be high, I think Sawangkaew will have a harder time defending her than she has so far this event. Muchova in 2 competitive sets.

Bartunkova vs Krejcikova :

Big fumble for me not knowing Siniakova had a leg issue, but a great win for Bartunkova. It sets up a puzzling clash between two compatriots. Bartunkova has a huge serves and a great forehand. She has a good mind for the game and a lot of creativity. Defensively, she’s not there yet, but who needs defense when you’re a highlight reel. I think the upset is very much in play here, but Bartunkova will have to serve really well. If they’re having frequent baseline rallies, Krejcikova’s easy power will win, and she’ll wear down Bartunkova’s backhand.

Krejcikova is through after an absolutely mammoth contest against Andreeva. Mirra broke back in every single set, but she just couldn’t hang onto her serve. As the match dragged on, Krejcikova started to be the better server, and while there were a bunch of 50/50 points, it felt like Krejcikova was content to just boom backhand cross, while Andreeva was sort of fighting the ball and the results. She doesn’t need to do anything, but it might help a little if she was less expressive after losing a point. It’s so much to ask of a young person who has mostly tennis experience to not sweat and struggle with tennis results, but opponents really get belief and focus when they see someone losing their own supply of those items. Krejcikova’s movement was an issue, but Andreeva was visibly frustrated and I think it paired poorly against Krejcikova’s stable mood.

For this match, the tasks are clear. Krejcikova throws in random errors, but she makes more if you make her move. If she’s able to stand and hit, she wins. Bartunkova’s serve and forehand can score easily, but her backhand won’t hold up. I half expect this to be another Krejcikova match where she drops a set and just grinds through in the third, but she did lose to Birrell recently so Bartunkova is a threat. Krejcikova in 3.

Pegula vs Bouzas Maneiro :

Bouzas Maneiro and Yastremska had their usual epic battle, and it sets up another tough baseline contest for JBM. Pegula is on a great streak here of good play, and it probably the 4th or 5th favorite to win this event (Rybakina/Sabalenka/Swiatek/Gauff/Pegula imo). You could maybe put Keys/Muchova and Anisimova in there also, but so far this event that’s where I’d land. Pegula won their previous meeting in straight sets, and the only puzzle about naming her as the champion here is the struggle she had in the first set with Sorribes Tormo. I really didn’t expect her to wind up in a tiebreaker, but credit to Sara she played well and had a lot of good variety. I like Pegula here. They both hit the ball hard and are solid athletes, but Pegula has a slightly better located serve and she’s less prone to errors than Bouzas.

Alexandrova vs Jovic :

Big tests here for Jovic. She passed the Tatjana Maria task last round, and now she plays a big server. This is tricky because thus far on tour, Jovic has really only looked stumped against people who hit the ball much heavier than her. Alexandrova fits that mold, but I don’t think her movement is good enough to stop Jovic. Tararudee was able to make life very tough on her by moving the ball and defending, and it only takes 1-2 swings for Jovic to freeze her opponents. She has good variation on the backhand and her forehand isn’t huge but it’s well struck. Jovic in 2-3. Alexandrova in a good patch of play can absolutely snag a set here, but I don’t think her defense or mental stamina are good enough to win.

Bencic vs Kalinskaya :

Bencic has won all of the matches between these two on fast courts (including a 2022 3 set win in Berlin on grass), so despite losing the most recent clay-court meeting in Rome, I like her side here. Kalinskaya’s offense and power off both wings are good enough to compete, but I think Bencic’s insistence on taking the ball early can rush Kalinskaya in a similar way to Swiatek but maybe with less pace and more consistency. This should be pretty close, but I expect Bencic to pull away as the match goes on and she gets her timing against Kalinskaya. Bencic in 2-3.

Liu vs Gauff :

Liu played really solid against Sonmez in round two and pulled off the upset in straight sets. She has never taken a set against Gauff, but Gauff narrowly won her second round against Sierra so she’ll have some belief. For me, belief is good. For the tennis, I think this is a very tough situation. Sierra has power off both wings and is very stable defensively. I think she plays a fairly strong game but her defensive hitting and power are what make her competitive with Gauff. Liu tends to play a more offensive style and isn’t really the best on defense, so she’ll need to be really efficient here and hope that Gauff struggles a bit. It’s possible that this is close, but Gauff probably will be able to score on Liu a bit more often than she was on Sierra. Higher quality shotmaking from the challenger, but a less successful result is what I expect. Gauff in 2.