2026 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round One - Day 2 Writeup 🐢

Men’s Singles :

De Minaur vs Burruchaga :

De Minaur is having a very human year. His backhand hasn’t been automatic, some of his losses have been puzzling, and the ability to just outwork everyone has faded a little. The good news for Alex fans is that he’s worked pretty hard this entire time. He’s made a bit of progress every week, and grass gives his game a big boost. His flat shots slide through the court nicely, the grass gives his somewhat weak serve a little edge, and his athletic ability is a good factor. This is a good opener for him since Burruchaga is not really established as anything but a clay-court specialist so far. De Minaur in 3.

Mannarino vs Droguet :

The French tennis federation can have 100 players on tour, and they will somehow sport 100 completely unique styles. The result of everyone from France having a fairly unique offensive output is that they tend to split sets when they meet. Mannarino is a very tricky lefty with one of the best sliding serves in the game on grass. He gives you no pace to work with and his backhand slides the court nicely. Droguet is a tall server with good power and skill. Most of the work here for him will be done on his forehand. The loss to Rodionov doesn’t scream upset, but Rodionov is a different type of lefty (a more powerful and direct approach). Mannarino lost his last 4 sets and he’s not exactly in the first half of his career, so I expect Titouan to win a set or two here. In the end I think Mannarino can expose his movement and that will be the difference. Mannarino in 4-5.

Bellucci vs Svajda :

Svajda is not having a great run on grass, and it seems like his results might be based more off form than surface at times. Zachary had a good clay swing which was completely surprising, so with his run of losses here to Dzumhur and Damm I think Bellucci can find his way through. Bellucci has beaten Bublik and Bolt recently, and taken sets off Collignon and Humbert. It’s decent, and his athleticism and experience on grass should matter here. Bellucci in 4.

Tabilo vs Majchrzak :

Tabilo leads this h2h 2-0 (one clay and one hardcourt) but he’s been really rough to start the grass swing. He has a strong serve and a great forehand, but if grass is giving him trouble right now this is a tough opponent. Kamil just beat FAA, Medvedev, and De Minaur in Hertogenbosch and he’s playing very solid from the baseline here. It seems like he’s destined to get his first win against Tabilo. Majchrzak in 3-4. Honestly Tabilo has been winning 2 games per set in his last few outtings so it’s hard to call for him to suddenly wake up even against a familiar opponent.

Khachanov vs Harris :

The upset is definitely possibly here. Khachanov has lost both his matches to start grass season (3 sets with Quinn and 2 with Damm) and his slumps the last few seasons have not really seemed within his control. He’s always been a dominant physical force and I guess as he ages and as players improve that’s less and less the case. Here we have a really good matchup between two powerful players, but Harris has been playing and winning constantly. He only dropped one set in qualifying and he’s been active in Challengers before that. In my mind Khachanov will be a little more durable in baseline rallies since he’s a faster athlete than Harris (large fellow), but Harris has shown in the past that he has the ability to win sets when given the opportunity on tour, and that tennis acumen is hard to overlook. I think this winds up in a 5th, and it’s really hard to point to either having a big edge when it gets there. Tentatively, Harris in 5.

Hanfmann vs Mpetshi Perricard :

I think I like Hanfmann here. Both these guys have huge serves and good power, and neither moves well enough laterally to really defend that great at tour level. GMP has way more variety, but I think that’s where things go sideways. Hanfmann has really good ability to generate power from anywhere and I think he’ll be able to pick GMP off enough times at net to win. Hanfmann just lost in two to Darderi but he was 0/13 on break points there, so his level is pretty good even if he was unlucky. Hanfmann won their previous meeting on hardcourt in a third set, and since all sets contained a break this tells me that at the very least he can get some returns in play. Hanfmann in 5.

Griekspoor vs Duckworth :

Griekspoor is having a bad time out there, and the struggles continue even though they are evident. At times he reacts poorly, at times he just plays through it. Tallon is a professional so he knows the results will come eventually, but it’s a vulnerable time for him and Duckworth is very scrappy. Luckily for Griekspoor, Duckworth has also lost his last few matches including a 2-0 L to Hussey and a similar L to Vukic. I think Griekspoor’s serve is just a bit better than Duckworth’s, and he should squeak by but it’s hard to rely on him at this point. Griekspoor in 4.

Navone vs Cobolli :

Cobolli is not really great on grass at all, and hasn’t been active after Roland Garros where he took advantage of a chaotic draw to make his first major finals. His serve and forehand should be enough to get him through here since Navone doesn’t really have the right weapons for grass, but if he’s rusty it could be a long day since Navone makes up for his defensive style by being ultra consistent. Cobolli in 3.

Mensik vs Samuel :

Samuel is pretty good and Mensik has not really figured out how to play on grass yet. It feels like his forehand production is an issue, as his backswing and swing has a sort of glitch in the middle. With the ball bouncing somewhat erratic on grass, it feels like he can get caught snatching at it at times. His backhand also doesn’t have a ton of shape. Jakub should win this match just on his serve (he has the most unreturned serves on tour or the highest % of unreturned or something) but with Samuel’s grass-court excellence I think this could be trickier than fans of Mensik want. He also has tended to start slow at majorsMensik in 4-5.

Sweeny vs Dimitrov :

This is not a good matchup for Sweeny but in one sad way, it is. Sweeny had a great run through qualifying where he just basically outlasted everyone. Blanch got an injury, and Barrios Vera ran out of serves. Sweeny is a shorter player (5’7” or 170cm) and doesn’t really serve huge, so against Dimitrov his best plan is the same plan. He has to outlast Dimitrov and genuinely hope for injury or fatigue to become an issue, but given Grigor’s physical woes this is not so outlandish. Dimitrov did struggle a bit late in the match against Shelbayh last week, and he was flat and expected to lose the next round, but since it was against Fokina (the eventual champion) it’s hard to say that there’ll be a dropoff in a single match. Basically, I expect Sweeny to defend admirably and make this entertaining, but Dimitrov should be a bit too good on serve and too good defensively. Even when you land something good or there’s an erratic bounce, Dimitrov tends to play a good slice so this is a long day. Dimitrov in 3 or a “not again!” Dimitrov withdrawal.

Wawrinka vs Berrettini :

This is a fun matchup between two gentleman who could really do well here. Berrettini had to retire in Paris and it’s unclear how recovered he is since he hasn’t played since then. Wawrinka is more active, but grass isn’t the best for a guy who’s struggling a bit with his movement. Stan tends to have 2 incredibly solid offensive sets of tennis in him, so this could be very competitive for a while. I think Berrettini eventually gets through because his serve is bigger and his game is more suited for grass (nice slice bh and very aggressive forehand from anywhere), but it feels silly to say the guy recovering from an injury is going to wear someone down. Berrettini in 4.

Collignon vs Fils :

Welcome back Fils! It’s always good to see him recover so quickly from injuries. Unfortunately, he has only played Boodles so this is a question mark. He beat Mensik,and lost a 7-6, 6-1 outting against Tommy Paul. We know he has a great serve and is solid at tennis, but his modus operandi has been misfiring early and then coming back based on his incredible stamina. If he’s coming back from injury, it’s hard to believe that will be automatic. Fils blasts away until he locks into a level, and my point here is that Collignon is very solid and serves big, so it could be very close if Fils gives up a lead. Chances are low he just plays his best and wins in straights, so this will be worth looking at. For now, I actually like Collignon’s chances of getting through here, and if Fils can win I would tentatively say he’s back. Collignon in 4-5.

Humbert vs Bergs :

Rematch of the Eastbourne final where Bergs was able to win in three. The only thing I actually like about Bergs over Humbert is his physicality, so I have to pick him again here. The ability to recover in 2-3 days is there for most pro athletes, but Humbert can look a little weak at times so I think Bergs may just drag him again. Obviously Humbert’s spot serving and pinpoint offense can beat anyone, but it feels like this is a tough spot for the runback. Bergs in 4-5.

Shimabukuro vs Faria :

Grumble. Shimabukuro is playing really well, but this is a tough matchup. Shimabukuro’s aggressive returning and skilled service games tend to both baseliners and offensive talents a bit more. He can overwhelm some players, and with others he can get to tiebreakers. Faria sort of sits in the middle. He has a lot of power, a big serve, but he plays fairly conservative. I think it will come down to Shimabukuro’s error count, and I’d set this match at exactly even. If they play ten times, I don’t think anyone will dominate. Here I’ll give a slight nod to Shima because he’s been playing on tour and winning there, and he’s the toughest competition Faria has played. Shimabukuro in 5.

Dzumhur vs Fery :

Fery’s playing well and Dzumhur doesn’t have the weapons to hurt people on grass. He won’t quit and he’s playing another baseliner so it could take a while, but this is a must-win for Fery. Fery in 3.

Virtanen vs Shelton :

Spooky opener for Ben. Otto Virtanen has a huge serve and can win 4 games in 4 minutes. If you enjoy hyper-aggressive trickshot tennis, this is the match to watch. Shelton should win, but he needs to play immediately here and I think it’ll still be tough to win in straights. Virtanen was solid in qualifying and I think his eventual downfall here will be a little less rally tolerance than Ben on big points. Any early round against an in-form servebot at Wimbledon is a really difficult spot, especially since Virtanen is more likely to sling offense in a tiebreaker than to revert back to hoping. Shelton in 4. I think Shelton is probably the 2nd threat to win this event so perhaps a wakeup call is useful. Djokovic and Zverev have a better chance of always going deep and doing well, but Shelton’s serve and more offensive style give him a better chance of snagging Sinner once he gets there. I’m not sure if that makes sense, but I think Djokovic and Zverev can guarantee a 4 set battle against Sinner, whereas Shelton gets straight setted quite often but has the tools to snag him on the days he blinks. Clearly, Sinner has never blinked against Shelton in the past, but this is a moment where there is a lot of scrutiny on his physical ability.

Fritz vs Draper :

This is a pretty funny first round when juxtaposed next to Kypson vs McDonald. Draper is back from injury and looks decent on court. He lost to Humbert in Eastbourne but lefty matchups can often be tricky and I liked what I saw. The risk of him exiting the event at any moment is there so this analysis is mostly moot, but I think he can beat Fritz. Fritz is returning from a knee injury and has played a bunch of tennis. The finals run in Halle was great, but somewhat unexpected. He’s a healthy favorite here to get to the finish line in sets, but I wonder if he doesn’t have a matchup issue here. Draper won their last few meetings. The one thing I think Draper does well that hurts Fritz is hold/vary his forehand well. He hesitates on the backswing to see where his opponent shifts, and Fritz is not a sprinter so this can freeze him. Draper also takes his forehand down the line very easily and often which is a shot Fritz does not defend well (especially on grass). Taylor has committed himself to defense in the past few seasons and gotten better, but I don’t think his returning is that great against wide serves and Draper has a very good slider and a powerful T serve to back it up.

Given their last month, I would expect Fritz to grind through here eventually, it’s just hard to believe that he’s going to shut down a guy who’s been giving him defensive trouble for years, on a surface where playing defense is very difficult. Draper in a strange 4, but if Fritz wins it’ll be a great sign. Right now I have doubts about his ability to physically push through two weeks of grass-court tennis. I don’t want bad things to happen but grass is a lot of cumulative strain on the knee and he’s played a bunch of tennis already.

Kypson vs McDonald :

Mackie looked great in qualifying. His speed and ability to play only forehands really helps him out on grass. On the flip-side, Kypson just lost to Vukic. I think Kypson’s serving keeps him around this one for a while, but McDonald eventually pulls away. Fun story, my friend went to watch Mackie a while ago at a qualifying event, and his family heard him cheering and invited him to sit in their box. Nice guy, nice people. McDonald in 4.

Bonzi vs Diallo :

Bonzi would be my pick her a month ago with Diallo coming back from injury, but Gabriel has gotten better every match he’s played. His serve is huge and his offense is crisp, so the only task here is to avoid crashing out of sets with unforced errors. Bonzi is still decent even though grass isn’t his best surface, so this is likely to contain some tiebreakers and could go either way. Diallo in 5 is my guess. Having the huge serve to rely on can be a huge boost in majors.

Sonego vs Etcheverry :

I’m not sure if you’ve ever seen the way Cookie Monster eats cookies, but that seems to be the way Lorenzo Sonego approaches tennis. The event cannot occur fast enough for him, and the result is a lot of errors that didn’t seem necessary. Sonego the hedgehog is a wildly entertaining player, and when he finds his best tennis he’s so enjoyable to watch. The trouble is the rest of the year he sprays errors. This match is very winnable for him since Etcheverry’s swings are always a bit rushed on grass, but Etcheverry is more likely to hit the court in the long run so I am very much in the “do you want this bad enough to remain composed” camp for Sonego. Etcheverry in 5.

Tiafoe vs Atmane :

Tiafoe just won the title in Halle and him, FAA, Hurkacz and Shelton are the second tier challengers for me. You really need the big serve to go deep in Wimbledon, but you have to also be fairly durable in rallies. Tiafoe checks those boxes when he wants to. You also need great reactions and reflexes and physical strength and speed, and Tiafoe checks those boxes. His new training program hasn’t made him better at tennis, but it feels like at the end of long matches he’s just able to keep going mentally. That’s big. Atmane is a difficult opener because his forehand can hit the ball clean by anyone at any moment, but I think Tiafoe’s defending and consistency will win. Tiafoe in 4.

Kopriva vs Choinski :

Scary one here. I will have many adjustments to make and players stock/level will shift after the first round, but this is one I think is very difficult to call even though I have a 50/50 chance. Kopriva is good on grass, and I don’t think that’s common knowledge. He lost in 3 to Quinn, but that’s not such a bad result. His backhand down the line is very effective here due to the slippery nature of the courts, and he serves decent. The trouble now is that Choinski has beaten him their last two meetings (albeit on clay) and he has been thriving at the Challenger level. He has wins against Popyrin and Giron, and those are two players who would be small favorites to beat Kopriva. This is one where Kopriva will have to dig in and try to outlast Choinski. Jan has a good serve and good power, and he’s fairly consistent, but it’s a very singular approach. Kopriva is the better defender but he has less offense and plays with more variety, so basically he has to be very clutch and a little lucky. Kopriva in 5.

Jacquet vs Gaubus :

These two actually met in qualifying at Wimbledon last year and Jacquet won in two. Gaubus is solid, but he doesn’t have the serving ability that Jacquet does. I honestly would not expect these two to qualify on grass, but here we are. Jacquet in 4. He’s a very good athlete and has good slices, and his first serve is a big boost here as the match drags on.

Kokkinakis vs Bublik :

I would try to get inside the mind of Kokkinakis and Bublik, but I do not think I would escape. These are two very confident bois, and this should be a match filled with bravado and huge hitting and incredible shotmaking. Bublik has played a bunch of warmup events and not really played his best. I think the upset is very much here for the taking because Kokkinakis is motivated to get back on tour and because he plays his best tennis in the first round at majors. Kokkinakis in 5. It’s entirely possible that Bublik decides to go all out and exposes Thanasi’s backhand, but I think emotionally he will blink and get upset first and more often and that can be an issue since Kokkinakis stays very keyed in on how his opponent is feeling.

Lehecka vs Popyrin :

If I have to choose one ATP player to hit the court for me for 1 million dollars, these two will be my photographers after Navone gets me the money. This is a great section of the draw for spectators. Popyrin has lost his last 4 mtches, but he has a huge serve and can produce highlight reel stuff. Lehecka has been having an up and down year, but he did okay in London and he went to Hurlingham and beat Norrie. I think both are in a rough spot confidence-wise but Lehecka is producing better tennis more often. Lehecka in 3-4. Popyrin has timing errors when rushed and hardcourt and clay seem much better for him to find his way out of that.

Molcan vs Altmaier :

Altmaier retired from his last match so I would lean towards this being even at worst for Molcan. He’s 1-0 against Altmaier (on clay) and had a bunch of break points to beat Maroszan in his last outting. Molcan will have to do a ton of running and grinding to get through here but Altmaier being potentially injured makes a long match tricky. Molcan in 4-5.

Michelsen vs Fearnley :

Fearnley is still struggling with injuries and inconsistency. Michelsen isn’t great on grass but he should win by keeping a base level. Michelsen in 4.

Munar vs Cerundolo :

Cerundolo just won a title and played very well to do so. Cerundolo in 3. Munar has an underrated serve for a shorter player but this is too uphill.

Arnaldi vs Halys :

Arnaldi has looked kinda rough on grass, so this is doable for Halys. He’s had an up and down season and hasn’t been totally healthy, but his serve is good enough to win here. He also beat Arnaldi in Madrid on clay this year which isn’t the same conditions, but does tell me he can play tennis with Arnaldi without getting grinded down. Halys in 5.

Moutet vs Giron :

Moutet has been active but losing. Giron has been active but losing deciding sets. It’s hard for me to see Giron’s backhand holding up here against a talented lefty but Moutet has seemed less than serious lately. I’d expect Giron to win the early sets but then it could get very tricky. Giron in 4 or Moutet in 5.

Royer vs Wendelken :

Royer has not ben active and had to retire from a clay Challenger recently. To me, Wendelken is not at this level yet at all but it feels like this is possible. Royer has really struggled with fitness this year and he only won 36% of his second serves in his only grass match. Granted, it was against Quinn, but this feels like it’s even. Royer has the serving and experience to win, and Wendelken is sharper but relatively new to the tour. I’ll go with the hometown favorite. Wendelken in 4.

Blockx vs Zverev :

Blockx has not played since Roland Garros so this is a mystery match. He might be playing just because it’s a major, or he might be healthy enough to compete. If he’s healthy, his serve and forehand will be very effective. Zverev should still win. Grass is not the best surface for his approach to the game but he still is allowed to serve and he’s more stable from the baseline than Blockx. Big backhand advantage here for Zverev. Zverev in 4.

Women’s Singles :

Svitolina vs Snigur :

Svitolina retired with a right hip issue in her last outting so this is unknowable. Snigur has a good style for grass because she hits extremely flat and she’s put on some great performances against top tier opposition, so this is Svitolina if she’s healthy and a close match if she’s not.

Erjavec vs Jeanjean :

Jeanjean was exceptional in qualifying and the win against Volynets in particular impressed me because they have such a similar approach. Erjavec has been struggling to find her form, and a few set wins recently indicate it’s coming. For me, qualifying in the WTA represents a tremendous level so I like Jeanjean to be more consistent here. Jeanjean in 2.

Tomljanovic vs Bolkvadze :

Great result for Bolkvadze to qualify. I think Tomljanovic will wear her down with her heavy hitting, but this should be competitive early on. Ajla has been getting back in shape but hasn’t been able to secure easy wins lately, so she’ll be happy to get this done in 2 if possible. Tomljanovic in 2-3.

Krueger vs Vekic :

Wild to see Krueger having to qualify, but her game is the type that can disappear for a while. She has huge easy power and reminds me of early Samsonova in the sense that she is constantly winding up in a third despite having all the tools to win. Krueger has a tough one here as Vekic is playing well again. Donna has always been pretty good on grass, and she just beat Raducanu, Boulter, and Pliskova in her last event in London so there won’t be a significant complaint about playing another big offense. With Krueger holding 71% of her first serves and second serves I think this goes to tiebreakers and I expect it to wind up in a third. Vekic and Krueger are just very similar players. Big power, great serves, but a tendency to spray errors in bunches. I’d lean Krueger in 3, but the manner in which she loses makes it look like a bad choice. Krueger is 13-1 on grass this season, and while those are lower tier matches, I have a hard time thinking she’s going to crash out here.

Navarro vs Badosa :

These two met last season in Berlin on grass and Badosa won 7-6, 6-3 so this is tricky. Navarro has completely come alive this month and is playing great, but Badosa has also arisen. Paola managed to beat Gauff from a set and a break down, and Navarro has just lose to Ruse. This should be very close, and I think the slight advantage for me is in Navarro’s mentality. She can drag her way through matches in a very frustrating way, but she doesn’t really react visibly to stuff and she doesn’t fall apart. Her game can be too passive, but she stays steady and I think Badosa’s roller coaster shotmaking and reversion to grinding may let Navarro squeak by. Navarro in 3.

Selekhmeteva vs Kraus :

I like Selekhmeteva here, but not by a lot. Kraus has been pretty good this season, and played a lot of grass Challengers leading up to this. The trouble is neither one of them is at their best on this surface. Selekhmeteva is a powerful lefty so I think her game translates easier, but Kraus is more consistent in general. Selekhmeteva in 3.

Podoroska vs Kostyuk :

I would not have guessed Podoroska had a protected ranking spot for this event, but here we are. Kostyuk in 2.

Paolini vs Montgomery :

Paolini is not the same player that made two major finals, and while her commitment to hard work and focus is still there, she’s not automatic from the baseline anymore which is making her beatable. Oddsmakers actually have her as the underdog here against Montgomery which is a testament to how human she has become. Montgomery just won Hertogenbosch which is meteoric for her career, and she’s on a 10 match win streak and did well in qualifying. It will be really difficult for Paolini to stop that, but it could be a very long day. Montgomery in 3.

Shymanovich vs Golubic :

Shymanovich is a bit like Shnaider in that she can generate big power from anywhere on the court. Her weakness is her movement and lack of variety, but she’ll be competitive here. Golubic comes in having made the Nottingham final, and her skill and slices are likely to get her by here. Golubic in 2-3. Viktorija should win, but since she doesn’t have much of a serve the possibility of her dropping a set is always there against a big hitter.

Kalinina vs Rakhimova :

Kalinina is 2-0 against Rakhimova (on clay) and should serve her way through this. Rakhimova is probably in better form from the baseline but Kalinina’s game works better on this surface.

Sakkari vs Tauson :

Tauson starting to win matches again is very welcome. She went three with eventual champion Muchova and didn’t seem too physically cooked during the event so I have a feeling she’ll win her. Sakkari is always a threat but it seems like her decision-making on court has not really improved. Could be time for an extra coach. Tauson in 2.

Eala vs Zarazua :

Eala can get outhit but here she actually is the strongest avenger. Zarazua wins with defensive pressure and a backhand that never misses. That should bother a lefty a little but Eala has a pretty balanced offense so she’ll be able to score off Zarazua’s forehand. Eala in 2.

Williams S. vs Joint :

Joint has played a little better this grass swing, so initially I liked her chances. The last time Serena was on tour, her lateral mobility was really hampered by her slight lack of fitness (which Mouratoglou hinted at in the documentary but was chastised for), and that made her vulnerable. It affected her play because getting late to the ball and having balance issues makes your contact worse and that means less spin and easier shots for your opponents. Her serving was still pretty good, but that only makes you 50/50 against most top 50 players.

With that in mind, Joint’s ability to reflect pace and take the ball down the line sounded pretty good. But then I watched Serena play doubles. The GLP-1 drugs have been a cause for debate, but she is carrying no extra weight right now. The result is some of the cleanest hitting I’ve seen from her in a long time, faster reactions, and overall a version of Serena that we have not seen before. Early in her career she was dominant and extremely strong. At the end she was still a threat to anyone but had a clear vulnerability. Now, she’s fit and playing with no external pressure, and I think she rolls here. There may be some slight nerves to work out after not playing singles for so long, but she looked to be the best player on court in the doubles win with Mboko and she was very quick with her reactions, whether it was calling Mboko off shots or cutting balls off at net. Williams in 2. With the rest of the tour in a strange new landscape of who’s good and who’s expected to win and who’s slumping, this is a dangerous floater in the draw.

Valentova vs Pliskova :

Valentova had a good week in Eastbourne, beating Tomljanovic, and Klugman, but I think she loses this. She’s one of the players on tour who’s capable of winding up as a top ten player and possibly a Grand Slam winner, but her games ebbs and flows right now. She isn’t really consistent, and she swings very big so it’s hard to rely on her. I think Pliskova can maintain a more steady level because her game is based on a few shots she’s been doing for 10+ years, so in a tough shootout with a lot of offensive tennis I think Pliskova gets by in 3.

Townsend vs Swiatek :

Swiatek is the defending champ here, which is probably not a situation most people expected from her given her struggles on fast courts. Grass rewards offense, but it also rewards athleticism. This is a matchup of both. Townsend has a great serve and a powerful forehand, and Swiatek is one of the best athletes on tour. I think the result is a tense match where Swiatek’s lapses in confidence look bad, but one that lasts long enough for her to get through. Townsend has only played two warmup matches for this event, and I think despite Swiatek’s loss to Navarro she’ll rebound and play well here. Swiatek in 2 close sets.

Anisimova vs Gjorcheska :

Gjorcheska won pretty much every round of qualifying as an underdog, and she’ll have the chance to keep that run going as she plays last year’s finalist. Anisimova is not in form right now, and is newly back from injury. I don’t rule out a deep run, but it feels like she can’t shut anyone’s offense down right now. Her movement just isn’t sharp yet, and it’s tough to make that change quickly on grass. I don’t expect her to lose here, but the match against Keys in the third round looks very dangerous. Anisimova in 2.

Marcinko vs Kenin :

Marcinko is having a great year, and since Kenin is still struggling to find any consistency from round to round, I think Marcinko’s aggressive ball-striking will wear her down mentally. The wrinkle here is that Marcinko retired from her last match with an abdominal injury. As a result, there’s not much to do here but wonder. Healthy Marcinko in 3. Kenin in 3 if Marcinko is picking up a check.

Begu vs Swan :

Swan retired from her last match against Krueger so this is tough to call, but she did beat Begu in 2018 on grass. Is that a data point? I don’t think so. Swans are elegant but aggressive. Begu is just elegant. Begu beat Parry which is a good win but Swan beat Golubic. Closing my eyes and picking Begu.

Day vs Keys :

Kayla Day has been hovering around the outskirts of the tour for a while now and draws like this do not help. She didn’t drop a set in qualifying so her level is wasted here against the Eastbourne champion. Keys in 2 high quality sets.

Cirstea vs Bejlek :

Cirstea’s serve and power should be a good factor here. Bejlek has started to play better on grass but she’s still a bit hesitant and some errors flow when she mistimes the ball. Cirstea in 2.

Birrell vs Korneeva :

Birrell is an interesting player because she can beat Krejcikova but lose this match. Korneeva has been a fixture in major qualifying for a while now and as one of the more hyped juniors it seems like she’ll get on tour soon. Birrell at her best can hit with anyone but she has lapses in her timing and consistency and I think playing a very in-form junior is a bad formula there. Korneeva should win by maintaining a level for longer in the match. Korneeva in 3.

Osorio vs Waltert :

Neither player is that great on grass. Waltert might hit a little bigger with control but I think her defense is much worse here. Expecting Osorio so just be able to grind it out in a third.

Seidel vs Noskova :

Noskova looks half-healthy again and Seidel’s movement on grass is not good enough to defend just yet. Noskova in 2.

Shnaider vs Lys :

Shnaider has lost all three of her grass matches this month. This is not ideal. Lys beat Frech, but this is a much different task. Lys really has a decent chance here because Shnaider does get frustrated at errors and she’s not playing great yet on grass this swing. Hard to really expect her implode, but I think this could win up in a third. Lys in 3. Shnaider is just not holding serve well so far on grass and I think that removes a big aspect of her game.

Kudermetova vs Samsonova :

Regardless of who wins, this will be a fast one. Kudermetova is a good baseliner, but she plays very quickly. Samsonova basically has never seen a ball she didn’t like, and tees off on everything whether things are going well or poorly. I don’t mean this in a bad way either, because Kudermetova plays very solid most of the year and Samsonova’s mobility almost requires her to go big or go home. Kudermetova won their last meeting in three and qualified here so her form is guaranteed. That makes it tough because Samsonova her donated losses to Dart, Mertens, and Teichmann recently. She did play decent in Bad Homburg in a losing effort against Svitolina, but this feels like Charlie Brown when he goes to kick the football. I don’t have a way to guarantee that Samsonova keeps it on the court, but if she does, she wins quick. Samsonova in 2 or Kudermetova in 3. Is picking two outcomes a copout? Yes.

Boulter vs Grant :

Incredible stuff from Grant this season and her power and athleticism pair nicely with her ability to win matches. She only dropped one set in qualifying (to Preston who is really good) and she has an opponent who can sometimes lose her timing. Boulter is a big offense and has a great forehand down the line. When she’s serving well, she wins this in two. If she’s struggling to land first serves, she’ll get broken and wind up in a third here. Boulter’s second serve is just not great, and her first step is not quick since she’s a bit taller. This means her opponents can move in and apply pressure and the whole thing just becomes very tense. She held just 29% of her second serves last round against Fernandez, and Grant is a less adept but similar baseline test. I think Boulter wins in 2-3, but I worry that if she has to defend here she’s really not holding any advantages.

Gibson vs Bouzkova :

Offense vs defense here. Gibson seemed like a good fit for grass, but her results were slow to start the swing. She has a really flat backhand and a good serve, but lost to Charaeva in qualies in London. She then had three sets with Francesca Jones, but backed that up by beating Zheng. It shows promise, but maybe not the type of consistent offensive output that it requires to beat Bouzkova. Bouzkova has just won the title in Nottingham, and it seems like grass has saved her entire season. I haven’t liked her forehand production in a while, but if she’s winning, I have no comments of value. She should grind out another win here based on surface comfort. Bouzkova in 2.

Mertens vs Siegemund :

Mertens is 2-0 in this matchup, and while they haven’t played in 6 years, Mertens is younger and playing a bit sharper. Siegemund will make every match a grind and she has good variety on grass, but Mertens is a defensive presence that I think gets through comfortable. Mertens in 2.

Haddad Maia vs Timofeeva :

BHM lost her last 7 matches,and Timofeeva qualified. Timofeeva has promise but can be a bit inconsistent on offense, but this is a tremendous spot for her even if Haddad Maia used to be good on grass. Something very puzzling is up with Bella; she has just lost constantly and does not seem to be injured or honestly playing that terribly. She’ll just randomly hit balls wide after making 3-4 perfect contacts. Timofeeva in 2.

Ruse vs McNally :

Ruse is playing some good grass-court tennis, and this is a good boost for a difficult season. Given her run at Bad Homburg, she’s a small favorite here, but “supposed to win” doesn’t always translate. McNally thrives on pressuring her opponents and extending rallies, and she has a good forehand. I think this will take a while to complete, but Ruse is serving at above 75% first serves and holding more than 50% on her second serve, so she should have an edge on short points and avoid the fatigue. Ruse in 2-3.

Boisson vs Rybakina :

Rybakina has managed to fly under the radar here decently, and she has a decent draw if she can get going early (Ruse could be trouble in round 2 if she’s not timing it right yet). Boisson is not good on grass yet. Rybakina in 2.