2026 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round One - Day 1 Writeup 🐢

Another year and another Wimbledon. This one is a bit unique as the landscape has changed a bit and some familiar names are missing, but this first round is filled with some very competitive matches. Looking through the draw about 90% of them could have an argument made for either player, so I’m expecting a metric ton of 4-5 set duels. The weather doesn’t look too bad for this next week, so this should be an excellent tournament.

Sinner vs Kecmanovic :

This may be an unpopular opinion, but I expect Sinner to roll here. There is no one in the tournament at a similar level to him, and his RG exit was in the toughest physical conditions and partially due to illness, not a result of him losing at tennis.

Everyone will remember Dimitrov going up two sets on Sinner last season at Wimbledon with a display of perfect tennis, but part of the sentiment around that match was everyone sort of waiting for him to fade and Sinner to grind it out. A terrible injury ended the match, but from there Sinner was unbeatable. Djokovic looms as a dark horse at this point, but he’s also in the top 5 threats in the tournament and that speaks to the fact that there isn’t really anyone rising to challenge for this title just yet. The gap in the level of tennis the field is capable of and Sinner is significant, so I think it will take a physical letdown or a meteoric performance from one of the top 5 to take Sinner out. Medvedev has matchup issues in the rally against Sinner that are hard to overcome, Zverev is not as good on grass as he is on clay, and the FAA/Shelton tier is capable of the offensive output but them taking Sinner out and winning the title would represent by far the best thing they have ever done in their tennis career. In short, I think Sinner backs up his title.

The lack of matchplay is a small concern, but Jannik went to Hurlingham and dispatched Norrie easily. He’s also 4-0 against Kecmanovic dating back to 2019 which was very early in his career, so I don’t think he’ll have much trouble here. Sinner in 3.

Borges vs Boyer :

Nuno Borges just got the business from Ethan Quinn in Mallorca, and this is another tricky matchup. Borges’s main problem in his last match was dealing with chip returns off his serve, and Boyer’s camp will have noted this if they are worth the money. Boyer’s early career has been highlighted by strong hitting and serving, and has been held back by a genuinely terrible attitude. Things set him off very easily, and once he’s angry he stays there. I think this is a close matchup but since Borges keeps such an even keel and has decent durability on defense he should edge it out. This is the first of many matches where the expected outcome can’t be straightforward because of how well the underdog is playing (Boyer had a good run through qualifying beating Llamas Ruiz and Pellegrino). Borges in 4ges. His flat hitting and decent serving should be just enough to get him by.

Vukic vs Brooksby :

Brooksby started to show signs of life against Martin Damm in London, and his ability to keep the ball low makes him a tricky out on grass. These two just met in Eastbourne and Brooksby won in straights, so that is what I’d expect again. Vukic will be competitive as long as he’s landing first serves, but once his percentage drops Brooksby should pull away. Brooksby in 3-4.

Nava vs Buse :

Nava has some decent lower-tier wins on grass against Pinnington Jones / Krueger and he has a pretty good service delivery. His aggressive play will likely make him competitive here, and Buse’s win against Tsitsipas is more about Stefanos having no backhand than it is about Buse being some dominant force on grass. Where I do like Buse is in stability. Nava is used to long matches but his level can vary a bit, and I think Buse’s gameplan is more defined because he does it every match. Extend rallies, and isolate his opponent’s backhand. That is the exact formula to wear down Nava, but on grass it’s sometimes difficult to guarantee defense, or even returns in play. Expect a shootout here, Buse in 5.

Jodar vs Gill :

It’s hard not to pick Jodar in any match he plays at this point, but he has played 0 grass events leading up to Wimbledon, and his only previous matches on the surface were in the junior Wimbledon event in 2024. If he were facing a trickier opponent I might doubt his chances, but Gill has not proven himself to be a dominant force just yet. Jodar in 4-5. I really cannot stress enough that lack of experience on grass is a problem against guys who are used to it, and the British players just understand how to play here. The trouble with adjusting my estimate of Jodar if he rolls is Gill should lose this in straights. Jodar also has a big serve at times so he could be completely fine on day 1.

Shapovalov vs Carreño-Busta :

PCB’s serve is not good enough to win on grass, but Shapovalov is a problem solver. He can absolutely come up with a way to make this a competitive match, and that’s what we love about him. For Shapo supporters, it has been a fun but long road. He does not seem to fix his issues, and he is dangerous in any match in both directions. Against Cilic recently he was up a set and a break and lost many games in a row to wind up in a third. In the third he was up a break again and lost. The guy needs a coach. Shapovalov in 3 is supposed to be the result here but this is a guy who plays one speed and does not deviate even when it is clearly not working. His service motion also collapses on big points, and his attitude on court during tough patches is still reminiscent of the angry kid who accidently injured an umpire. This is not a nice thing to suggest but for many tennis players, having a loved one in their box does not help. It applies too much pressure to the athlete and they aren’t good enough yet to carry it. They don’t want to disappoint their loves ones, and they dread and experience that possibility anytime things aren’t going their way. For Denis, I think someone who’s a decent role model and very no-nonsense would work. He has everything necessary to become a consistent performer, it’s just mental stuff that holds him back from being a top ten player.

Basing vs Mochizuki :

Max Basing is pretty good. He was Stanford’s #1 and now he’s venturing out on tour, so qualifying in his first major is a great step. Mochizuki also came through qualifying so both will be happy about their draw. Very generous of tennis to always have qualifiers with the chance to draw another qualifier as a second round result at a major can pay for their whole year of traveling. Basic is really solid on his backhand and hits it pretty flat, and he has a good forehand technique that doesn’t really result in too many errors. Right now, his serve is a little bit weaker than most of the tour, so beat Mochizuki could be tricky. Shintaro is a very accurate player and he has incredible skills at net, so if he’s getting deep returns in Basing could have a long day.

One wrinkle in this being straightforward is Basing beating Bertola 3-2 in the final round of qualifying when Mochizuki lost to him in straights a few weeks ago, but I suspect that this is a decent matchup for Mochi. He’s just played a similar player in Tabur, and I think he’ll be a little bit more able to hold serve in a long match here. Mochizuki in 4-5.

Quinn vs Darderi :

Quinn has just lost a close final against Davidovich Fokina in Mallorca, so he starts out as the favorite here. Backing up a deep run when you’re as slender as Quinn can be tough, so the question here is whether Darderi can drag him or not. Quinn has adopted chip returns and they’re working great on grass, but those are a little more effective after the court has been worn down a bit. These two have never met, but have very similar approaches. Both do all the work with their serve/forehand, so I would expect this to be a wrestling match. Darderi has struggled on grass so far, but I don’t think this is a shutout. Quinn in 4.

Ruud vs Hurkacz :

Ruud is very capable of playing well on grass, but he doesn’t train for it the way he does other surfaces. He’s a golfer in July, and Hurkacz is one of the best threats on grass you will find even in his rusty state. Ruud with a good serving performance hangs even, but if Hurkacz plays well he should win in 4.

Medjedovic vs Ofner :

Ofner beat Medjedovic in the first set and got a retirement from him last year at Wimbledon, so this is not a simple match. Hamad has the skill to win this, but not the patience. He’s lost his first two grass matches, but a 3 set loss to Humbert is not that bad right now. Ofner hasn’t played any grass since last season, and he hasn’t been sharp this year so I think Medjedovic should even the score here. This is one where I would not really blink at any outcome, and since Ofner should be competitive, Medjedovic in 4-5 is my pick. The trouble with that is he has had health issues frequently and attention span issues, most recently in RG where he got frustrated against Casper Ruud and proceeded to just blast away until it was over.

Kwon vs Landaluce :

Kwon is a year and a half into his mandatory military service for South Korea, and he’s made good use of his special permission to compete at Wimbledon by qualifying. This is a guy who was really doing well on tour and who plays extremely aggressive, so his qualifying run should ring alarm bells. Landaluce is just starting to prove himself on grass, but has dropped sets to guys around this level. Landaluce has gotten into a great position on tour, but I think grass is still his worst surface so a surging qualifier (who also won a challenger event a month ago represents a really tough challenge. Kwon has had some tough losses on tour so I’m not sure he gets all the way through, amd this is a big step up from the guys at the Challenger level also. Landaluce in 5.

Muller vs Paul :

Muller hasn’t been too active and Tommy Paul has a bigger serve and better offense. This is Muller’s first tournament since the French, so it’s possible he’s just picking up a check. Paul in 3.

Nakashima vs Pinnington Jones :

JPJ has a good ability to hold serve, so this should be entertaining and contain a lot of games. At the same time, Nakashima has prove to be a really difficult matchup for servebots because he serves really well but also plays a very error-free grind it out baseline game. Nakashima in 3-4.

Struff vs Baez :

This is where Struff really gets to mess with us. He’s finally started to win matches, he’s playing one of the shortest players on tour who genuinely has no serve, and he even beat him in their only meeting on clay where Baez is best. So why do I feel like Baez is going to find a way to unravel him and win? Baez has done nothing on grass and Struff has a bunch of good wins, so barring a complete brain fart from Struff he gets through. I just sometimes look at his face and think there is a guy who is trying not to fart. Struff in 3, or a very strange Baez in 4 where the comments section implodes with people who put Struff in their parlay

Merida Aguilar vs Ugo Carabelli :

This one is tough to call. I think Ugo Carabelli is more consistent and serves a bit bigger, but Merida is way more aggressive and has more variation in his game. Hard for me to a clear winner here as neither has ever won a grass-court match, but Carabelli has played 8 and Merida only 2. Experience wins? I’m really not sure here. Ugo Carabelli in 4.

Cilic vs Medvedev :

This is a rematch of a Wimbledon match from 2021 where Cilic took a quick two set lead on Medvedev and ended up losing in 5. What was clear from that is Medvedev believes he can outlast Cilic. He never altered his game that day even though he was getting ran around the court constantly. Fast forward 5 years and I believe Cilic has lost a step physically, but Medvedev has also slowed down on defense and in the serve department. He’s no longer a guarantee to thump aces, and that makes this close again. Marin will have opportunities and Medvedev can unravel, so I’d expect Cilic to win a few games in a row in random patches here. Overall, I expect a mirror of their Hertogenbosch match from a few weeks ago where Medvedev won in a 3rd. Medvedev’s just a tiny bit more physically able in a long match.

Auger-Alliassime vs Shevchenko :

Felix is in the second tier of threats for me at this event. He can always serve well enough to win on grass. Shevchenko just lost to Baez at Hurlingham, and while exhibitions don’t matter, that is not a great result. His game is a little too passive on grass and you don’t get opportunities to grunt when the points are short. FAA in 3-4. I’m putting the 3-4 generally because it’s so easy to drop a set when everyone is holding serve at a high percentage. Even the non-servebots on the ATP tour are capable of powering through most service games if their first serve % is above 70.

Walton vs Prizmic :

This is going to be a theme but I’m not totally sure about this one. Wimbledon is always extremely tough to call in the early rounds because so many players are just not great on grass. Walton had three wins in a row at Mallorca so he seems like a solid pick, but two of those were against Challenger level guys, and not the top tier. The other win was against Kyrgios who is Kyrgios. Nick played well against Moutet but I’m not sure how many matches he has in him at any given event and losing to a compatriot wouldn’t bother him much if his knee was bothering him (he indicated after his opening week of tennis that he had a knee issue). Prizmic has barely played on grass, but took sets off Hijikata and Tsitsipas so he’s not completely harmless. Prizmic’s strides on offense on clay make him a threat here with his big hitting, but I wonder if he isn’t a bit ineffective on the surface, which would make Walton the overall better player since he’s consistent. Walton is the more established player on grass but I think Prizmic can eventually grind this out. Prizmic in 5.

Vallejo vs Mejia :

Opportunity is here for the qualifier. Mejia was solid in his run and beat Schoolkate in straights in the final round. That’s good enough to beat a guy with only 1 grass-court match in the last 5 years. Vallejo had two tiebreakers with Hanfmann but won only 36% of his second serve points. I think Mejia is more comfortable and more effective on the surface right now, and will edge this out in a close 4 sets.

Zheng vs Norrie :

Thus far in Zheng’s career I’ve only doubted him against players with a very solid backhand, so this one is interesting. Norrie’s backhand is pretty stable, but this match isn’t a backhand exchange because Cam is a lefty. Norrie is running on 5 losses in a row and has not won a set in any of them. He forfeited his French Open match after a set, and I guess the tournament decided that a penalty wasn’t necessary even though it was public knowledge that he was injured heading in.

I don’t really mind Norrie’s slump because he does some adversarial things on court that I don’t support, but he’s still a really tough out. Zheng’s been super active on grass in the past month and has some good wins, but he also has lost to players at a level below Norrie. This is a good test. Given Norrie’s fitness issues, I almost think it’s better if the first sets are close. I’m guessing Zheng wins via forfeit a runaway 4 setter, or Norrie is able to break down his backhand and plays fine. No real way to know even having watch the Lehecka/Norrie match, because exhibitions tend to be played at a fairly casual level. I’m aware that the format is predictions but I’d rather paint the situation accurately than make up stories. This is 50/50 but depends largely on Norrie’s physical state, and that’s something he’s been unclear about lately when it comes to entering a major.

Davidovich Fokina vs Cerundolo J.M. :

Juan has been playing decent on grass lately, but is playing the Mallorca title winner here. ADF finally winning a title has to give him a good bit of freedom here, and the best thing about his play right now is that he’s serving well. He’s always had the tools to play top tier tennis but he has a rough time scoring on his serve. This past week he’s been landing it deep in the box and it’s paying off. Barring a mini-party-mode Fokina style yacht bender (idk if these even exist), Fokina should be prepared to beat Cerundolo here. His backhand is solid enough to deal with lefties and he’s more versatile on offense and moves better on this surface. ADF in 3-4.

Tirante vs Maroszan :

Tirante’s serve and forehand are actually pretty decent weapons on grass, but I think this is a tough matchup and poor timing because Maroszan has finally seen the ball go through the hoop a couple times. The caveat here that makes Maro a risky bet is the treatment he had on his leg during the ADF match in Mallorca and the fact that he faded as that match went on. A few days of rest and a much simpler opponent should see Maroszan win in 3-4. He was holding over 90% of his first serves that landed in some sets in Mallorca, and his clean hitting is very useful on grass.

Fucsovics vs Van Assche :

I’ve seen this one before. Van Assche enters a major without any real tour results, and is expected to get rolled, and then 5 hours later he’s alive in a 5th set. Since he hasn’t played since RG, I’m going to expected Marton to win this. Fucsovics used to be quite solid on grass and he beat Hurkacz at Hertogenbosch. Fucsovics in 3, but somehow it’ll wind up in a fifth.

Svrcina vs Tien :

I like Svrcina’s finesse and speed on grass, but I do not fancy his serving ability. Tien should win in 3 and by a break each set.

Rublev vs Safiullin :

This should be good. Both players have huge power and neither move well on the surface. Rublev played only Halle heading in (lost to Hurkacz quickly), and lost an exhibition to Kokkinakis. Safiullin qualified, but took 5 sets to beat Jerome Kym in the finals. Kym is a promising talent, but if you want to beat Rublev you need to be really efficient when you have chances since he tends to play steady and hit hard. With Rublev in middling form this year and Safiullin playing well, I think this goes to at least 4 sets. I’m still picking Rublev because I think he is a little better in the backhand exchanges, but on grass these edges get small since there don’t tend to be a lot of baseline rallies til late in the match. Rublev in 4-5.

Kovacevic vs Van De Zandschulp :

Two good offenses here. For me, Kovacevic’s defensive backhand and returning on that wing are a slight issue on grass. His game is there, it just feels like he is not extremely dangerous on his backhand most of the time and isn’t the most consistent on that wing either. People familiar with Botic Van De Zandschulp will know he’s a big server with great technique, but also that he can go through patches of errors and shanks. In a 2/3 format I think Kovacevic has a slightly better chance, but in a long match I think Botic will be more capable on serve. BVDZ in 5.

De Jong vs Hijikata :

De Jong has a pretty solid serve so this isn’t a bad matchup, but Hijikata has been very active on grass and playing great tennis. De Jong hasn’t played since RG and I expect Hijikata to win this comfortably. Hijikata in 3.

Bautista Agut vs Fonseca :

RBA used to be a significant problem on grass. As he’s lost a step defensively, I think Fonseca should win this. He’s shown some promise on grass (nothing remotely close to his hardcourt or clay results) and his serve/hitting should eventually break down Roberto’s consistent hitting. Fonseca in 3.

Rinderknech vs Tarvet :

Tarvet came through qualifying without dropping a set, and Rinderknech has not been sharp to start the grass season. This really seems like a good spot for the challenger. Tarvet has a big serve, but he’s pretty solid in the rally also and grass is his specialty. Obviously Rinderknech has a huge serve and he’s the hardest test for Tarvet so far, but I think this is a very even matchup and the slightly difference in my mind is Tarvet is comfortable with the conditions while Rinderknech is still looking to find his mojo. Tarvet in 4.

Trungelliti vs Damm :

Damm is expected to roll here which is tricky because Trungelliti’s serving and athleticism aren’t so bad. I’m willing to buy Damm winning here, I just wonder how simple it will be since he seems to have a temper and can be a bit impatient. Damm in 3.

Gaston vs Tsitsipas :

This is like when a school gives the two wild kids detention at the same time and they wind up meeting and plotting to make even more trouble. Gaston is a petulant little goober with one of the most skillful and entertaining games on tour, and Tsitsipas is a wannabe bully whose backhand is slowly disappearing like Marty McFly in that one Back To The Future movie (spoilers sorry). I am sort of a fan of Gaston when I have time to watch, but Tsitsipas has embraced the villain role to a degree that makes his cockiness irredeemable. He can turn it around at any given moment, but he is a douchebag in my eyes until he does. Tennis-wise, I think Gaston qualifying is excellent. Him being lefty and Stefanos having trouble on his backhand gives him a good chance, but Tsitsipas’ serve and forehand are decent enough weapons to let him win this. Gaston is 4-0 on grass this stretch, and his skill and deft slices mean a close match. Tsitsipas is prone to shanks late in sets, and I think the slices and dropshots will be difficult for him to deal with. Gaston will also know that Tsitsipas tends to go at opponents at net, and he has good hands so he should be able to convert a few extra points that he wouldn’t be able to if Tsitsipas just hit a pass like a normal human being. In the end I think Tsitsipas’ serving and athleticism will just get him through. Tsitsipas in 5.

Wu vs Djokovic :

This is the perfect first round to get a look at Djokovic’s level. He tends to start very slow in majors and eases into a draw, but Wu’s style will test that. Yibing has lost both his grass openers in straight sets, so I don’t expect any upsets here, I just think that a player who looks to take the ball early and take time away from Novak will be an early wakeup call for him. He ran out of juice in Paris, but I still think Djokovic is capable of winning tennis as long as there is no massive grind. Grass and a fairly safe draw are a good formula for him to make another second week run, and that’s what he has here. Djokovic in 3. He hasn’t played any events, but giving this guy a month to prepare is enough to make him a legitimate top 5 threat at Wimbledon.

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Kostovic :

Kostovic was excellent in qualifying, coming from behind to beat Sramkova and then straight setting Zhu in the final round. The reward is a huge clash against Sabalenka, which is both terrible luck and good luck. Playing the #1 player on tour is a pretty cool experience and a good look for a talented prospect at the level that needs to be achieved. Sabalenka has had a mundane grass swing by her standards, and it seems like her recent struggles have gotten to her head. She lost a 3 set match against Pegula in Berlin, and almost lost to Bartunkova the round before. Her consistent performances and title runs really all came together after a run of good play. Prior to that steady run, Sabalenka had been fairly inconsistent and could lose at any given moment if she lost her focus or got upset. It is possible that could return, so while this qualifier is not the biggest threat, it would be a good sign if Sabalenka can win the first few rounds comfortably. Offensive players thrive on confidence and are great frontrunners. Sabalenka in 2.

Oliynykova vs Kessler :

Oliynikova has a lot of slices and skill, but she’s really a clay-court specialist at this point. Kessler can overhit the ball at times, but she’s a consistent grinder on grass and she has a half-decent serve. This is one where Oliynykova will struggle to defend her serve mightily. Kessler in 2.

Ostapenko vs Dart :

Ostapenko retired from her last match in Eastbourne, so this is tricky. If she’s healthy, she’ll clobber Dart. Dart has a real issue holding serve, and can have double fault issues. Ostapenko is one of the more aggressive and powerful returners on tour, and has some decent pop on her serve even if the service motion buildup is hilariously cute. Ostapenko in 2.

Ruzic vs Raducanu :

Raducanu cut her practice session short today and postponed her press conference, so there’s a good chance she’s too injured to compete. Ruzic has done well on grass so far, but would lose to healthy Raducanu. Anything less though would be a loss for Raducanu, because Antonia is capable of dispatching a player who can’t move or swing fully.

Fernandez vs Tjen :

Tjen has actually beaten Fernandez in both their previous meetings (hardcourt) and is starting to figure grass out. She took a set off McNally in her last outting and Fernandez has lost to Sonmez and Wang recently which are right around Tjen’s level. This seems like a spot where Fernandez gets a boost from grass, but the window to beat Tjen easily here may have disappeared. Tjen has a really good backhand slice which she hits almost all the time and it’ll be interesting to see how Fernandez does when she has to generate her own pace on grass off of this shot. Fernandez in 3.

Xu vs Kasatkina :

Kasatkina has not won a grass match yet this season, but Xu has shown that she only has 1 full set of tour-level tennis in her. This probably won’t be straightforward given Kasatkina’s preference for defense and outlasting opponents, but she should be a bit more durable in long rallies. Kasatkina in 2-3.

Gasanova vs Arango :

Gasanova was starting to make her way on tour a few seasons ago but has been very absent from the spotlight for the last season or so. All that changed in the qualifying even this week, as she came from behind against Emerson Jones and then straight setted Semenistaja in the finals. It sets up a winnable match against Arango. Arango really plays a defensive-minded game and slices a lot of backhands, and while this is good on grass, it allows players to control rallies. Gasanova’s defensive physicality isn’t world class, but her ballstriking is excellent. I think she’ll be able to wear Arango down in win in 3.

Jacquemot vs Osaka :

Osaka hurt her right foot last week in the Bad Homburg semifinal, so this is not really a great match to analyze. If she’s okay, Jacquemot is not much of a threat, but it remains to be seen if she’ll take the court.

Muchova vs Zakharova :

Bad draw for Zakharova. Her hyper-aggressive shot selection can really bother the mid-tier defenders on tour on grass, but Muchova just won a title and her defense is solid. This could be tough for Muchova in short sections, but overall she serves and hits too big for Zakharova to avoid errors. Muchova in 2.

Andreescu vs Zhang :

Andreescu qualifying makes my ears just perk up. Most of her downfall has been due to injury, so I don’t rule out more good tennis from her if she’s healthy. She should be able to outduel Zhang here, but it might take three sets. Zhang is not moving great lately so grass is a rough one, but she’s still serving well and hitting with good pace when she has time. Andreescu has traditionally dropped a ton of first sets also, so I’m picking her in 3 here.

Parks vs Dudeney :

Parks has lost her last 7 matches on grass, but Dudeney has similar numbers. Dudeney is new on tour and has a decent serve and good movement for a taller player. She’s turned in some good performances like a close two set loss to Yastremska, and some rough ones like a 6-0, 6-3 loss to Bouzas Maneiro. This is largely down the Parks’ level. She’s a better server and a slightly better athlete, but it’s clear her coaches biggest work has been keeping her patient and keeping her from getting too results-oriented on court. With the hometown crowd and Parks in rough form, this probably winds up in a third. Parks should win, but she should have beaten Inglis, Brockman, and Arango and she didn’t. Dudeney in 3. Maybe Parks levels up because it’s a major but with her career going less than stellar, I have a hard time believing she’s just hunting major results.

Sawangkaew vs Chwalinska :

Chwalinska had a dream in Paris with a finals run there, and the question now (as grumpily put by Kalinskaya in her press conference after losing to Maja) is how is she going to do on grass. So far she played Magda Linette and lost in three, which isn’t a bad start. She has a qualifier here so there are some expectations, but this might be a tough matchup. Sawangkaew is really efficient from the baseline and has some good offense also. Her qualifying means she’s playing near her best level because she can win on tour but also lose at the ITF level. I’m expecting a grind here where Sawangkaew is able to edge a decider. Sawangkaew in 3. I’m not doubting Chwalinska here, I just genuinely think that Sawangkaew is capable of very high level tennis so this would be a good win for Chwalinska.

Siniakova vs Zheng :

Siniakova leads this h2h 3-1, and all 3 were on grass. Two of those were at Wimbledon, so it’s hard for me to give the nod to Zheng. Zheng has also had some struggles with confidence and lost some deciding sets recently. She has everything going for her in this matchup; bigger serve, younger, more power, better backhand, and yet she keeps losing. Siniakova in 3. Zheng could win this, but the players that don’t deviate their approach when struggling really don’t make me believe they’re going to figure it out.

Stearns vs Bartunkova :

Bartunkova is one of the more exciting offensive prospects on tour, so this is a really tough match for Stearns. Bartunkova beat Shnaider and Mertens in Berlin and got to a third against Sabalenka. Her serve is in the top 20 deliveries for me when it lands, and she has some excellent skill for a taller player. Bartunkova in 2.

Krejcikova vs Klugman :

Krejcikova had to withdraw from a match a week ago against Montgomery, but she should advance here if she’s healthy. Klugman is solid but this is a big step up in ballstriking and I think Krejcikova will be able to ply her offense. Krejcikova in 2.

Linette vs Andreeva M. :

This is a pretty good opportunity to see how far Andreeva will go here. Her game doesn’t exactly scream grass-court monster, but the tour is in a strange state right now. Almost every top player has some reason they’re not confident or has experienced strange dips. With Andreeva finding her best level at RG and with her spot-serving improving a great deal, this is the sort of fortnight where she could run through a draw that’s sort of waiting for someone to announce themselves. This is a lofty prediction obviously, especially since she lost quickly to Alexandrova in Rosmalen. Andreeva is 3-1 against Linette and the only question here is how quickly can she figure out grass. If the surface is really giving her trouble, Linette serves well enough and is strong enough defensively to remove Andreeva from this tournament. Andreeva’s resurgence is interesting because her ceiling here is super high for me and her base level is also super low. I’ll be watching. Andreeva in 2 or Linette in 3 for me here. Either Andreeva serves well and dominates or grass is actually going to take her apart and she won’t be able to play her usual consistent baseline tennis.

Pegula vs Vidmanova :

Vidmanova has a huge serve and is in that next tier of offensive prospects (the one Bartunkova has exited this season), but Pegula is too much right now. Pegula in 2.

Sorribes Tormo vs Jimenez Kasintseva :

SST hasn’t played a grass match since 2024. VJK hasn’t win 2025. I don’t expect a deep run from either with Pegula waiting. I’d go with Kasintseva simply because she’s younger and hits a bit harder.

Yastremska vs Ito :

Ito can be a very tricky matchup, but she hasn’t found ways to win matches lately. Yastremska is a flight risk because of how aggressive she is, but her power should eventually let her win. Yastremska in 2.

Bouzas Maneiro vs Potapova :

Potapova retired from her last two matches and Bouzas Maneiro is decent on grass, so I think the Spanish player advances here.

Alexandrova vs Udvardy :

Alexandrova finally woke up in Bad Homburg, and given Udvardy’s short stature, she should be able to hold serve and break often here. Udvardy is playing excellent, but grass is not really her best chance to win on tour since her serve is not that strong. Alexandrova in 2.

Tararudee vs Tagger :

Tagger is in that period of a junior career where the tour is now aware of you, and the expectations start to be a burden. I’m sure she’s enjoying her time competing, but for now I think it would benefit her fans to view her ranking and place on tour as a huge accomplishment for a while. Lilli is excellent, but once the tour knows your game and your reputation, you don’t get many easy matches. Playing Tararudee first round is pretty good for her, considering Tararudee has just lost to Erjavec (who’s struggling badly this season). I think Tagger hits a little bigger here but the one-hander on grass isn’t an automatic thing. Tagger in 3.

Putintseva vs Maria :

Tatjana Maria is a known problem, and still wins. You know it’s a day filled with slices, and it still bothers you. This one is a little tricky because Putintseva has beaten Maria the last 4-5 matches, but Putintseva is quite bad on grass. It sort of equalizes things, so I would not be surprised if Putintseva surprised people and snagged a set or more here. Her speed and patience really do help a bit against Maria, and being short doesn’t hurt when getting low for slices. Maria in 3.

Cristian vs Jovic :

Clay was a tough puzzle for Jovic, but Iva seems to be figuring grass out quickly. She managed to make the semis in London, and should have a small edge here. Cristian thrives on extending rallies and matches, but she often gives up breaks and has to make comebacks. I think Jovic applies such good pressure in return games that Cristian will have a hard time performing those same heroics here. Jovic in 2.

Bencic vs Stojsavljevic :

Stojsavljevic has some decent results (beat Korneeva) near tour recently and made the quarters of junior Wimbledon a few years ago (when she was only 14), so this is a well deserved wildcard. Bencic should win in two, and one thing I’m looking at here from Bencic is how her new service motion works out on grass. The sliding serves can really be effective here, and I think she’s flying a bit under the radar at a time where the usual suspects are suspect.

Wang Xinyu vs Cocciaretto :

This should be a powerful clash, and most Cocciaretto matches wind up in a third. Wang will be happy to oblige, as her aggressive style can lead to errors in bunches when she’s dealing with too much pace. I think the surface is both good for both of them, but also too fast for both of them, so I’m expecting a match where neither has much rhythm. Wang is a little better with her movement so I’d give a small nod to her. Wang in 3.

Jones vs Parry :

Parry seems to be doing well on grass, so this is a good spot for her. Jones has a great forehand and good power, but she’s looked a bit flat on tour in the big moments at times. The players that struggle for a stretch do tend to get more training time and wind up fresh for the second half of the season, so I wouldn’t worry too much. Here though, I think Parry serves a little better and hits a little bigger. Parry in 2.

Frech vs Kalinskaya :

I like Kalinskaya here, but there is a lot that you have to ignore to get there. Frech is 2-0 vs her, but in fairness one was a withdrawal and one was in 2017. Also, Kalinskaya withdrew from a match recently, and she’s pretty consistent with injury withdrawals once they start. Frech also has been pretty active on grass, so this is a spot where Kalinskaya needs to level up or she’ll be 0-3 against Frech. It’s hard to really get a gauge of how much she cares in the early rounds, and how healthy she is. My opinion is of no value here, but I like Kalinskaya anyway because she serves bigger than Frech.

Li vs Sonmez :

Sonmez is 2-0 against Li, but I don’t actually like her here. I watched her and Dart last week, and they both really struggled to hold serve. Li serves much better than either, so despite her deciding set losses recently against Golubic and Alexandrova, I think she has a chance here to win. Li in 3. There will certainly be a lot of return winners from Sonmez, but I think her serving woes are going to be an issue this week.

Liu vs Vandewinkel :

Claire Liu’s qualifying run was pretty good, and she’s had a good couple months here. Vandewinkel is a promising player and has a big serve and good power, but I think she gets outlasted here. I don’t think there’s much value in me knowing that Vandewinkel will hold serve a bunch, but I think she will have a good stretch of games here. She beat Bartunkova recently which is a good result in hindsight. Liu in 2-3 close sets.

Sierra vs Bondar :

Bondar retired from her last match, and grass is generally not her best surface. Sierra has notched a bunch of wins on grass already this season, and I think she’ll be too solid here. I also expect her to be too durable, so if Bondar plays well, her injury issues might arise against due to the heavy workload against Sierra. Sierra in 2-3.

Gauff vs Korpatsch :

Korpatsch is playing Gauff at the right time since she’s struggling for form and just lost to Badosa, but I don’t think there is a great path to victory for her since she doesn’t really have the type of offense or power it takes. This could be tricky if Gauff is struggling with her timing as she sometimes does on grass, but Gauff in 2.