2026 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Quarterfinals Day Two Writeup 🐢

Women’s Singles :

Noskova vs Mertens :

Noskova and Mertens have never met before, and their first meeting is on the grandest of scales. A chance for the Wimbledon semifinal awaits, and even more important it’s a semifinal in the weaker side of the draw. Paolini and Kostyuk is the other quarterfinal, and while everyone is playing well, there isn’t a traditional Rybakina/Sabalenka type who is a big favorite to serve them out. This is a huge opportunity for anyone who manages to squeak by here. I say squeak because I am watching that guinea pig commercial with that actor guy whose name isn’t Linus but he kinda looks like a Linus and he’s a cowboy in one thing and a cool mutant in another, but I also say it because I expect these matches to be very close.

Noskova is the more powerful server here, and the player more capable of scoring quickly here. She has a tendency to play well for a few games in a row then take a game or two off, and the result is a lot of 3 set results. This actually might give her a bit of comfort here as she knows how to manage her game best in a 3rd set. Wimbledon is different than another tournament, but when you’re consistently grinding your way to late wins in semis and finals elsewhere, your game is pretty composed. It’s a nice note, but even as I’m writing it I’m reminded that Elyse Mertens has a ton of experience and tour. Mertens has been playing very efficiently when she has control, and the only hole in her game is that she isn’t the biggest server. Generally, when she plays a Sabalenka or some other big hitter at the end of a tournament, she loses a close one. Noskova is a more doable task because her lateral movement isn’t exceptional, but Linda is a small favorite here because she’s more likely to hang onto her serve if she has the lead.

Mertens and Bouzkova was a close match where Mertens honestly hit a little bigger. When she’s hitting the heavier ball it really is difficult to beat her, and for many seasons she’s been the WTA De Minaur in terms of consistently beating lower ranked opposition but not quite having the full recipe to get by the top 5. The Rybakina win is good enough on paper to call for her to beat Noskova, but Rybakina helped out a bit. Noskova remained pretty steady against Keys, and while she wound up off balance and handcuffed quite a bit, she was actually able to convert from those spots. Noskova’s plan for the ball is very much a last minute decision, and that’s helping her on grass. In neutral rallies, I think Mertens will thrive. Her backhand is very solid and she’s always been a good counterpuncher. She’s been playing the dropshot well also. A Mertens win isn’t out of the question, and the one shot I think she’s been hitting extremely well is her forehand to her opponent’s backhand. It’s not really hit down the line or close to the sideline, but she’s been landing it very deep all tournament and this will be effective against Noskova’s backhand. Noskova has a great backhand, but when she’s on the run or sliding into position she can shorten the swing a little and send it into the net.

This match comes down to Noskova’s serving % and unforced error count. She’ll have ample opportunities to score on Mertens since she does most of her work in baseline rallies, but she’ll need to maintain a consistent level and keep the ball on the court because Mertens has every shot and will adjust well if there’s some glaring weakness or lapse in play. This should be a good match. I do like Noskova to come through in a third. Her best level is good enough to score on Mertens, and I think she brought that level for a large chunk of the match against Keys.

Paolini vs Kostyuk :

Interesting. From the early buzz, it seems that people expect Kostyuk to win this one. I agree, but I don’t think it will be easy. Paolini in form is adept at extending rallies and applying defensive pressure, but she also has proactive footwork. A lot of players will settle into defense and get stuck behind the baseline. Even when they earn a shot ball, they let the shot come to them. These are pros, but it’s really hard to hit a ball that’s dropping or that has no pace. What Paolini does best is register when her opponent has left one short and she rushes these balls and takes them early. This means that despite Kostyuk being a great defender, she won’t just get a pass and be break-even on defense. Paolini requires you to maintain depth and use enough pace to keep her off balance. Since this is grass, the high bounce strategy isn’t really viable against her either. She’s played better every round, and after playing Eala she’s in probably the best form she has been all week.

So how does Kostyuk win? The main thing that’s really changed for her this season is her fitness. I am obviously not qualified to state exactly what shifted or changed about her diet or training routine, but Kostyuk showed up for this season leaner than she ever has. She was in shape before, but now she is at a much higher tier and it is paying off. Against Paolini, having that gas-tank and having that physical strength and balance is huge. Paolini will make you run, all the rallies will be 5+ shots, and she will use moonballs and lobs to buy time. Being able to do the footwork for 2+ hours and having the muscle strength to hit the ball solid when fatigue is actually setting in is a big key, and that is the one thing that Kostyuk has.

Kostyuk’s serve is solid but returnable for Paolini. She has good RPMs and consistency on her groundstrokes off both wings, but they aren’t really clearing the court in such a manner that she’ll be scoring easily. This is a match where Kostyuk has to wear Paolini down, and luckily she has put in a lot of work on clay so she understands point construction and patience fairly well. Her waking up on grass is a very welcome thing, and this is a good chance for her to make her first Wimbledon semifinal. Kostyuk in 3. Kostyuk could prove to be a break better each set but generally it’s very difficult to beat Paolini for a long stretch, and 6-3, 0-2 is a very common occurrence for her matches.

Men’s Singles :

Cobolli vs Fery :

Alright Cobolli. After a few matches in a row where Flavio looked a bit rough but incredibly clutch, he found someone having a rougher time. De Minaur had some good momentum coming in but this was not one of his best performances. He was quoted in press as saying “I’m broken inside. That’s the reality. You invest so many hours into this job and so many years to have moments like these. Not being able to live up to it is truly heartbreaking.” He would then pause and look off in the distance before stating :

“don’t you close that roof,

for then Felix has no chance,

I want a fair fight.”

The De Minaur sorrow post-match is something a lot of players experience. Some don’t train fully or commit to finding out their true level (Kyrgios types) as one level of self-defense, but the ones that do often get the reward of finding their ceiling. De Minaur is having a legendary career, but his playstyle and swing mechanics simply have not allowed him to beat the biggest hitters on tour. I would note that this melancholy of not being able to live up to expectations is pretty common, but it’s good to investigate these things. However good we’re doing in life, we will always move the bar of “acceptable self” just a bit beyond where we are. Always one more dollar, one more pound lost, one more etc etc. The ability to examine ourselves and see what we might improve or want to change is a great tool, but it’s a survival instinct, not an accurate judgement. When we judge, even when we are right, we are wrong. Understanding is better. For Alex, I would wager that he has does not frequently count his accolades or praise himself, and genuinely if you are going to beat yourself up you have to do the opposite. Ramana Maharshi often said, love all of your dream, or none of it. You can see the emotions and judgement as a natural thing, but ultimately noise; or you can accept those moments, but remind yourself that they are temporary. There are highs and lows on a roller coaster and results-wise, a tennis career is a constant roller coaster. Yes he is upside down right now, but a round ago he was going “wheee”. Listen to me Alex, you will go “wheee” again.

For now, Cobolli has finally broken me also. I can no longer doubt him. Throughout this event he has been able to dial up big first serves when he needs them, and his heavy hitting and athletic ability have kept him just a bit more steady on offense than his opponents. He is still shanking forehands here and there, but my plan for a robotic RBA type to appear and grind him out does not seem likely. Fery is that type of steady player, but I think his last match took just about everything out of him. Fery had to come back from two sets and a break down against Bergs, and he had to do the same against Dimitrov. He was toast, and he kept grinding until Dimitrov finally got a bit fatigued. Fery has an interesting approach to the game. There is no real sense of urgency to end points, but he can infuse pace when he needs to. He doesn’t go hyper aggressive with his shot location, but he can do so on big points. The result has been that he can get blitzed in some service games because he’s not really applying a ton of pressure, but also that at the business end of sets he’s able to produce some immaculate shots.

I think Cobolli’s ability to elevate means the Bergs and Dimitrov results won’t happen to him. If he’s up on Fery, he’ll be able to close out. He also has a tremendous amount of fitness in his game, so outlasting him does not really make sense to me. Fery’s steady play will definitely make this an entertaining moment, and he absolutely has no quit in him, but I think Cobolli has the proper combination of stamina, strength, and serving to get through here. Cobolli in 3.

Fritz vs Zverev :

Fritz has become such a good competitor that I really can’t remember at times why he used to bother me. The USTA format has long been to throw wildcards at their prospects until they remain on tour. This has resulted in a lot of US players who fold up a bit in tough spots early on in their career. They almost all wind up fighting back eventually, but I think seeing opportunities squandered just makes me roll my eyes. For a while, Fritz’s moping and folding bothered me, but it has been several years since that period, and his effort and professional approach on tour has really eclipsed that leak in his game. This next match is a great example of how mature Fritz has become. He is playing a guy who’s been in the top 5 for as long as I can remember, and Fritz is the guy who’s been thriving in the matchup.

Taylor has been perfectly built to win close matches with Zverev. His backhand is just steady and solid enough to trade cross-court against Zverev’s powerful offering, and his best forehand swing is rolling over the ball cross-court when it sits up high or short. These are the two aspects of Zverev’s forehand that frequently occur, and that’s basically why Fritz has been winning. His service delivery is eminently repeatable, and at times Zverev’s has been an issue. These matchup woes might be slightly less on display here, because Zverev really has gotten a bit better in the past few months. It’s almost as if the absence of Alcaraz and Sinner in some big events has let him see the ball go through the hoop, but more importantly for his confidence and execution the looming losses have been absent. Dreams are beautiful when you don’t have any worries. Zverev’s serve has been maybe the best in the tournament so far, so this is a doable but uphill task for Fritz.

Taylor’s height and reach have made him a moderately good returner against servebots. His lateral movement has never been great, but he’s been willing to scramble and fling himself in the past season or two in a way that has unlocked some better defensive skills. When you first start making new gets, you can guarantee looking silly and puffing up some setups, but eventually you develop the skills. If there’s one small concern for Zverev’s side, it’s the quick turnaround. His match with Lehecka was suspended due to the curfew and they played two more competitive sets yesterday. This means Fritz will be a bit fresher. I also think Fritz is a better grass-court player from the baseline. He’s not Federer by any means but Zverev can be a little uncomfortable on the surface because he prefers to play deeper in the court and has a very big swing production. Tiny errors, and small physical issues are the deciding factor here, but I really don’t see a way (even with the h2h going Fritz’s way lately) for this to be an easy day for Fritz. Zverev is serving too well, and Fritz is not really the type to blow anyone out. This is two baseline grinders who happen to also be servebots. Fritz in 5. I think in a long match Fritz will have fewer mood swings and also will gradually wear down Zverev’s forehand. Zverev has definitely been hitting that wing better and more aggressively in recent weeks, but it still is the weakest shot on the court in terms of mechanical repeatability.