2026 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Quarterfinals Day One Writeup 🐢

Just to recap, last time I posted I expressed doubts about Djokovic’s stamina, and this angered some people. I realize I must keep all tennis fans happy, so to make up for it, I have placed several Novak Djokovic haikus strategically throughout this article to keep their spirits high. I assure you they are very organic and will not interrupt the flow of the writeup. Thank you.

Men’s Singles :

Sinner vs Struff :

Perfectly oval,

Is the shape of his noggin,

greatest of all time.

Sinner and Struff arrive at this round in wildly different ways, but this should be a fun match. Sinner and Mochizuki was a great matchup due to Shintaro’s skill. He never really had momentum to win, but he played hard throughout and since he has such good placement and variety they combined for a number of highlights. Sinner maybe still isn’t at the level he was last season around this time, but it feels like there isn’t a clear answer to who his main competition is. Zverev is cruising, Djokovic will give a good account of himself and can redline with good success against Sinner in the first half of the match, Felix has a sort of “this era’s Berrettini” puncher’s chance, but there are issues with these guesses. Sinner has been a matchup nightmare for Zverev, Djokovic is about to play a long match against Felix and might need a physical letdown from Jannik, and Felix’s backhand is not up to par. At this point, it’s not as expected as Roland Garros due to his physical woes and unforced errors, but Sinner should win this tournament. That makes the remaining matches work, and in this case, that might be the correct view for him and his team.

Overhead smashes,

are not the tool of the goat,

these he leaves for you.

Struff at this point is playing at his top level. He’s serving very well, and he’s played enough tennis that his groundstrokes are all in good form. The wildly impatient approach to shotmaking and net approaches lead him open to random errors or breaks, but in the 3/5 set format he’s been able to really apply pressure and find wins. The match with Hurkacz was a long and somewhat hard to watch affair. There was a great level of play from both, but Hurkacz seemed to hurt his back and right-side (hip area) after going up two sets, and he was eventually forced to retire. Due to his serve, Hurkacz was able to hang in all the way until the fifth, but it’s hard to watch a guy’s resurgent moment come to this kind of end. Hurkacz had been off tour with injury issues for a long stretch and had infrequent wins since coming back. Hopefully his injury is nothing that requires too much time off because the North American swing should be profitable for him if he’s healthy.

Since Struff was down against Hurkacz, and since Sinner is the defending champion, the eventual victory here seems assured. Sinner has already beaten Kecmanovic and Borges (players considered a higher level than Struff), so this isn’t a massive step up on paper, but their most recent match indicates that this could be tricky. Sinner and Struff last played in Halle, and it was a 6-2, 6-7, 7-6 win for Sinner. Halle is in Struff’s homeland, so there’s a chance he was feeling more comfortable, but it’s hard to ignore the offensive onslaught that he has unleashed this week. There is a level of offense on grass where the opponent doesn’t matter, so the intent to shut Struff down in straight sets may not be possible. Sinner also having some slight timing issues this week at times could be a factor here because Struff is hitting his forehand very hard.

The place I think Sinner will hurt Struff ultimately is on 2nd serve returns. Struff will go for some 1st serves there, but I don’t think his kick serve on 2nd is good enough or varied enough to keep Jannik from teeing off. 60% first serves is decent, but Struff will want to get that # up to the 65-70 range to match Jannik. Sinner doesn’t rely as heavily on his serve as Struff, but it’s at a minimum equal and most days a bit more consistent and dangerous. Jannik’s backhand is also much more solid, so in those cross-court exchanges he doesn’t have to change much and can expect Struff to miss in a consistent % of those rallies. Sinner in 4 is my pick here. He hasn’t been superhuman at all, and their previous meeting was very close. There is some buzz that the weather will be hot here, but this is a morning match and it’s expected to be around 70. Later in the afternoon things will go up to 85, so I’d look more at heat to be an issue in the Djokovic/FAA match as that one starts around 3:30pm London time.

Djokovic vs Auger-Aliassime :

beat nadal on clay,

and beat federer on grass,

he’s got a great pass

The tricky part about the bracket format is that if I doubt someone one round, their opposition likely goes up the next. This can lend itself to the same scrutiny rising over and over and making the writer feel very stupid (like the Cobolli run the last two rounds). Luckily, the more loyal Djokovic fans (who are in a deep slumber now due to my gentle haikus) are here to call me stupid, so all is well in the world. The Safiullin match was more comfortable in the ending scoreline than I expected, but there were once again some slight issues. Losing points or games to Roman in his best form isn’t a bad thing at all, but the fact remains that Djokovic is not as automatic on defense as he once was. Safiullin led in the first set and things looked comfortable, but the classic “serve it out” break arrived, and credit to Djokovic this has been a tenet of his career. You can get a lead on the greats, but they’re always able to get a look in a service game if it’s a big one. I would say one of the best things about watching the big 3 battle was how much less it mattered who was serving in a given game.

After he got back the first, Safiullin had a big journey to make. There aren’t huge expectations going into a match, but after serving for the set, and having looks in the tiebreaker, losing on a quick error at 5-6 really makes the finish line suddenly twice as far away. Safiullin continued to grind and played decent (maybe a little tentative on the backhand), but winning the early sets allows Novak to manage the match so well. He dropped the 3rd but it didn’t really feel like a momentum swing.

lifting a boulder,

jumping over a mountain,

easy for novak.

While Djokovic enjoyed a fairly calm win (except for a small obscenity warning in the 3rd), FAA and ADF played a titanic clash. Fokina came in at a great level and true enough it took a lot to take him out. There was some grimacing late in the match, but he played solid and pushed Felix to the brink. The difference in the end for me was Felix’s serving. Fokina had maxed out his delivery for a few weeks, but it was more about location than pace. Auger-Aliassime has a very repeatable delivery but he really thumps the ball. His average first serve was 14km/hr faster than ADF, and his average 2nd 8 km/hr quicker as well. 27 aces and 4 doubles is solid, and 65% first serves in is pretty good in a 5 set contest.

This next match will be all about Felix’s errors. When both players are fresh, Djokovic has a clear edge in a few departments. His backhand is the main one. Djokovic has one of the steadiest backhands on tour, and FAA can actually struggle to make clean contact at times. Felix can sometimes fall into the trap of trying to run around this wing too often, and getting handcuffed and leaving the ball up for Djokovic is never a good thing. The other thing I’d point towards Djokovic on is the variety. Novak is way more comfortable hitting slices and using dropshots, and his ball-control is better than Felix in net rallies or scrambles. Defensively he’s more likely to put up a difficult lob and I also think he’s better at picking his passes. This isn’t saying much, because Djokovic is just levels above most players at tennis.

one time a panda,

was choking on a waffle,

novak saved its life.

This match is in the afternoon and it is projected to be fairly warm outside. 85 degrees is about the warmest temperature Djokovic has played in thus far, and I will once again me squinting at his physical state. I realized there is better way to frame this last night. It isn’t that I think Djokovic automatically will hit a wall physically, it’s that I see that as the only way he does lose. Most of Djokovic’s losses in this encore stage have been him playing at a higher or equal level against top opponents, but fading or getting a bit unlucky at the end. To get there, you have to do a lot. Djokovic vs Felix is about luck and the day’s level. FAA is likely to be the 2nd best player out there while Djokovic is fresh, but if he can maintain a level, he is likely to get a lapse in play from Djokovic. The other ((small) pls don’t hate me) opening I saw for Felix is Djokovic’s movement. It takes quality shotmaking, but his recovery to center isn’t quite quick enough to keep an opponent from scoring. The question here is whether Felix can weather the early storm long enough to take advantage of the hot conditions and Djokovic’s small blink in level that seems to occur around the 3rd set.

This is a big step up in competition for Djokovic, but he definitely has the ability to win this. I just think he has to win it quickly, and the only way for that to happen is if he redlines and plays at a new level for this event (entirely possible, but hard to expect), or if Felix implodes and loses the first two sets without wearing Djokovic down. With Felix’s serve, it’s not likely to me that this goes quickly, and I think he got decent prep for this by playing ADF. Fokina isn’t Djokovic in terms of precision and consistency, but he makes you play a lot of solid tennis from the baseline in order to win. I think this is the end of the road for Djokovic, so either we get to witness a high level performance (which makes things exciting against Sinner), or a tremendously close match in which Felix is just a little fresher at the finish line. FAA in 5.

Women’s Singles :

Osaka vs Muchova :

Osaka turned in one of her best performances of the week against Sabalenka and it sets up a rematch of the Bad Homburg final that saw Osaka withdraw with a foot injury. As she’s sort of constantly in a hunt for her previous high levels of tennis, any good match for her seems like a promise of more to come. When Osaka is off, she can spray errors. When she’s hitting the court though, her pace makes her relatively unplayable. Her inside-out backhand in particular has looked solid this event, and since Muchova goes to the squash-slice quite often on that wing, Osaka’s team will want to have her come to net (just favoring the ad side on the way forward) often after this shot. The best part of Osaka’s game is obviously her serve, and she was at 62% against Sabalenka and won 87% of those. The usurping of Serena that Osaka pulled off was largely due to her having an unreturnable serve that she could rely on, and as she finds that part of her game again, it opens up possibilities for this title. Right now, the bottom of the draw is full of potential new finalists, and the top is full of solid competitors, but ones who don’t really thump down aces. This means that at worst, Osaka can decide this tournament in tiebreakers.

alligator shirt,

a most flexible legend,

he will win one more.

This being a rematch, it’s tempting to doubt Osaka. Muchova is a really high quality player who is always dangerous in these major second weeks. She has great ability to infuse power on her forehand, and good defensive skills elsewhere. She’s not known as a servebot, but it’s a good delivery. I think the Bad Homburg injury was pre-match though, so I’m going to discount that result. Osaka called a medical timeout early in that match, and I think her movement was hampered. A foot issue will also impact your serving. Here she seems healthy, and I think she’ll be slightly more efficient on serve.

These high profile matches aren’t always a guarantee even if they go one way. The player who lands a few more shots near the baseline on big points can squeak by, so I think this will be a tug of war where the more confident player wins the set. When Muchova starts to land she really opens up, and tends to get more and more creative and hard to play until she starts to sort of heat-check and miss. The variety can definitely be a bonus against Osaka, who can miss in bunches and get a little comfortable dwelling in thought. On the other hand, having to make more decisions can often complicate things and lead to second-guessing, and Osaka’s approach seems much simpler, perhaps to her benefit. Osaka in 3. I don’t really think Muchova will be dominant on offense, but her defending is better than Sabalenka and Osaka has had a relatively easy draw thus far aside from last round.

Pegula vs Gauff :

This is a very interesting match. Last round I watched Bencic play Gauff. For the umpteenth time, it seemed like she was playing well enough to win. Belinda was down a break early in the first, but when she broke back and won the set, things looked promising. From there, it was an exciting but somewhat difficult to watch battle from the baseline. Bencic is good enough to break Gauff, but when she’s defending her own serve there are just too many long points.

Bencic plays a very aggressive game in terms of when she takes the ball and what she goes for, but it isn’t Struff level stuff. She takes the ball early to take time away from her opponent, and she’s very good at redirecting which keeps her opponents on their toes. This works great early on because she’s able to run Gauff around and even score in bunches, but late in the match it feels like her normal game suddenly seems risky. She still hits to the open court and tries to end points, but a lot of the time she backs off the aggression. Her style is more about taking time away than it is about accuracy, so at 30-30 in the first it seems ideal, and at 30-30 at 3-3 in the 3rd set half-volleying a backhand suddenly makes us hesitate. This compounds when Gauff settles into defense mode, because now the big swings aren’t really getting rewarded with errors, and breath to swing again becomes a commodity.

The last match seemed like an inevitable but perpetually close rivalry, and this one seems like a similar one (on this surface at least). Pegula’s hitting style works much better on grass, and her shot selection is more about net clearance and accuracy than it is about deception. The flat balls she hits have given Gauff a little trouble in the past (though they have split matches often enough that both will have chances) and her backhand is a bit more consistent on defense than Bencic’s. Pegula has also just completed a nice pre-match against Jovic where she had to deal with a very efficient backhand and arguably a better forehand.

the finger lady,

tried to announce your demise,

but you were too clutch.

The challenge of beating Gauff always includes the caveat that she can beat you. Gauff’s serve has a wide range of quality, and so does her forehand. She does probably have the best backhand on tour also and her speed and defense can get her through entire matches. Her serve and forehand having such variance is something to note because we always worry it will implode, but it also can thrive. She gets in these break/break/break battles but then she’s the one who winds up getting a few easy points or hitting a good forehand pass. The grit she showed in navigating Bencic and the way she finished strong makes me think this will be a close match, but I think Pegula will be playing the role of Gauff her and Gauff will be Bencic. Pegula is a little more steady here and the court gives her a slight boost. Pegula in 3. Given Pegula’s steady approach and small margins in net clearance, I think there will be a patch where Gauff is a bit better and earns errors, but in a long match I think Pegula’s flat-hitting will be the difference-maker.