2026 Wimbledon Men's Semifinals Writeup 🐢

Men’s Singles :

Sinner vs Djokovic :

Like clockwork, Djokovic has come up big once again against a challenging Next Gen opponent. The quarterfinal between Auger-Aliassime and Djokovic was one of the more interesting roller coasters in quite some time, but there was one main theme throughout: Felix’s backhand depth. FAA’s backhand is known as his weakness, and the issue was at the forefront of his match against Novak. He hit the shot in the court pretty consistently, but the majority of backhands landed around the service line, and very few had the pace to really bother Djokovic. The result is that while he hung in rallies longer than expected, he never really had a chance to score off that wing. Ultimately it was his backhand slice that broke down first on big points, but at this point he has settled into the Berrettini role where he can get deep in the majors and generate some excitement against the top tier but can’t really win enough baseline rallies to score.

It was a great run from Felix and he was in a 5th set tiebreaker with Djokovic, but this was a match that highlighted some of the leaks in his game. He fought off a number of backhand exchanges, but when he got his forehand involved he wasn’t really able to take control of rallies. There were a number of misplayed points at net, and even on grass you want to win some of the dropshot exchanges. The 5th set tiebreaker actually started off with a very high dropshot from Felix that isn’t really part of his game, and it set the tone for the breaker as he would go on to miss a very makable volley at 2-3 and send a few backhand slices long on neutral points. Overall it just felt like he really needed a physical letdown from Novak to win, and that was narrowly avoided.

The first set was pretty competitive, and the tiebreaker was decent from Felix. A missed swinging volley (when he had the whole court) ended up deciding things, but getting to a tiebreak was good for FAA. The second set saw him find his best tennis. He was in a great service rhythm, and Djokovic started to slow down. Novak was not really lunging for serve returns, and had lost a step in rallies as well. He started to look a little lackluster, and even when he had chances late to get back into the set he seemed a little tired. What happened then was sort of funny; the tournament director decided to close the roof. Djokovic immediately protested, and went on a nice little rant when a tournament official came out to explain. Felix also wanted to continue to play outdoors, but the decision had already been made and the roof was closed.

It’s possible Djokovic didn’t realize he was starting to slow down, or that he had a second wind, or that he was worried that a closed roof would improve Felix’s serving, but a 20 minute timeout was exactly what he needed. It reminded me a lot of the US Open match where he tore his abdominal muscle and couldn’t move. Fritz had him on the ropes and barely able to hit the ball and they decided to stop play to remove fans for the curfew. After the 20-30 minute break, Djokovic was able to play and move again and closed out. Here, the breather was good and the cooler conditions were great for Djokovic. He never really looked fatigued again, and the biggest booth was that Felix completely lost his service rhythm. In the first set he was at 60% first serves, 81% of those won, and 52% second serves won. In the second he hit 74% first serves, won 90% of those, and won 57% of his second serves. The third saw him drop to 60% in, 67% 1st serves won, and only 36% of his seconds. He also seemed to take time to readjust to the slightly different trajectory of the ball and his baseline played pretty bad until a few games into the fourth set.

It’s obviously not Novak’s fault that they closed the roof, and in a late match this was always a possibility, but it changed the match a bit. Felix is a rhythm player and tends to start slow and find his best contact and shotmaking in the second and third sets of matches. Djokovic also has a lot of experience making this shift (since he’s been in the late rounds of Wimbledon and playing the big time-slots)) for a long time and it showed. While Felix’s numbers went down, Djokovic’s immediately went up. He landed 81% first serves in the third, won 76% of those, and won 50% of his second serves. With a second wind he once again was a favorite in almost every baseline rally, and I honestly think he was unlucky not to close out in four. 

Djokovic’s ability to dial up a big serve at a key moment has always been a big key to his Wimbledon success, and it was no different here. He also started to open up a bit on offense as the match got later and it caused FAA to get a little too defensive. Just putting the ball back is a decent plan if your opponent is nervous, but Djokovic at this stage is playing with pretty good freedom. He still wants to win, but he has shown grace and class in all his losing efforts the past few seasons and I think this makes it tough to really pressure him into errors without big pace or good combinations. The other tricky part of Felix settling into push-mode in some ways is that when he did have a bit more time, he was very aggressive and often telegraphed his shots. He rushed the net and got passed a handful of times behind shots where Djokovic moved very early to his ball, and he also tried to infuse extra pace on some forehands and hit the net in points where he had and lost the advantage. 

Tennis is tricky in these spots. You get your opponent in trouble, go for something big, they barely get it, you hit another shot, and maybe now they hit a slightly better defensive shot. Maybe they get some depth, or a good moonball, but that urge is still there to try to close out the rally because at one point you were a big favorite to do so. There’s no easy solution for Felix since his backhand is too weak to battle Djokovic with much success, so while I am pointing at some mental errors, there probably wasn’t a better solution. I criticized his dropshots, but I do think with his powerful forehand it is the natural shot to work into his game.

The next round is what we’ve been waiting for since the start of the event. The Djokovic matches against Alcaraz and Sinner are some of the most exciting on tour because there are no bad outcomes. If Sinner wins, it’s a tremendous victory against one of the best of all time. If Djokovic wins, it’s a chance for him to get his 25th Grand Slam which would be one of the best stories of all time. It’s all just historical lore at this point, but it’s amazing to watch. Some may be surprised by this, but I think Sinner wins this match. Djokovic has spent twice as much time on court so far this event, and the last round against Felix was a massive contest. Djokovic was the more consistent player and had more variety, but knowing he could wear down Felix’s backhand doesn’t make the work any less arduous.

Djokovic and Sinner met in last year’s Wimbledon semifinals as well, and Sinner won in 3 sets. I’d say both are playing a little worse this year, but I am expecting a similar result. Sinner has been making some errors, but a major portion of the advantage Novak had against FAA is gone here. Sinner’s backhand is very solid and he has good pace, depth, and variety. Novak’s spot-serving and overall game are easily good enough to compete and he’s a big step up from everyone Sinner has faced so far, but it’s going to be 85 degrees tomorrow during their match and this is a difficult turnaround for Djokovic. It would make sense that they close the roof during this match, but I think the same slight fatigue issue that has arisen in the last 3 rounds for Novak will also be a thing here, and playing a 5 hour match against a powerful server has to have him at least a bit sore for this. Despite the thought that Sinner outlasts Djokovic, this hot weather also presents the slight possibility that Jannik’s heat issue can arise. He’s looked fine so far, but it’s a possibility. There is a culture shock for both of these players in store as both are playing their most difficult opponent so far, and one who doesn’t really have a hole in their game. The backhand exchanges will be fairly even, they both have the ability to serve well (Sinner’s might be a little more powerful at this point), and there aren’t any glaring holes in their game.

My analysis here is not that complex. Sinner has the advantage of being younger, and he has navigated his draw much easier than Djokovic which results in a lot less wear and tear on his body. I feel like he is fresh, and has enjoyed decent success in this matchup on grass. Even if Djokovic plays well throughout and doesn’t hit a wall, I still think Sinner has a decent chance to grind it out in a long one, but I think this will be an aesthetically pleasing but somewhat comfortable win for the defending champ. Sinner in 3-4.

Zverev vs Fery :

Arthur Fery has completely changed his life in the past two weeks and it has been with great effort, grit, and composure. It has been a while since the tour saw a player go on this sort of run without having some sort of massive offense (like a Karatsev). Fery is up to 36th in the live rankings and will stay there for a full year. He’s clearly best on grass, but his game style is going to net him wins on hardcourt also. Fery has a good serve, decent power, and good consistency. It’s really the type of game that can struggle to guarantee wins in a qualifier bracket (because there are so many huge offenses and similar players in there), but one that can often take advantage of a slumping pro or an other-court specialist in an early round. Getting into all the main draws just guarantees that you wind up in some free spots. Players get injured, players crash out, players get frustrated. I think Fery will stay on tour for at least a few seasons with these opportunities, and while I don’t think he’ll back up his Wimbledon semifinal, the fact that he has such a complete game and such a good attitude means he will harvest all available points when they appear.

For now, I think his goose may be cooked, but not because he isn’t playing great. Fery managed his game very well against Cobolli, and I think he managed to get out in straights because of the way the match played out. Fery and Cobolli were fairly even in the first, but a late break (on his first break point of the match) sent the set Fery’s way. This was a small setback for Cobolli, but it seemed more like one of those “ok, now there’s more work to do but let’s get to work” moments. Cobolli came out in the second and applied a lot of pressure right away. He was able to go up 2-0, and that’s where his mentality got a little bit fumbled. Fery held, and was able to break back for 2-2. This was a big letdown obviously, but Cobolli stayed in this mode of trying to dominate the match. He ended with 41 unforced errors, and this was the story for me. Fery played solid, and the task of beating him is not a quick one. His favorite player is Nadal, and his commitment to defending and his willingness to just reset the point make sense in light of that. I think Cobolli had a great run of being clutch in big moments, but here he tried to dominate in a spot that I don’t think he could.

I didn’t love the hyper-aggressive hitting from Cobolli, but credit to Fery. When Flavio did give him balls to work with, Fery’s footwork was good and he sent the ball quickly to the open court. He approached to Cobolli’s backhand a good amount, and overall it was the type of performance that would make me think he had a chance against most opponents.

This next round for Fery is an uphill battle. Zverev has found his best tennis at the right time here. He’s brimming with confidence after winning Roland Garros, and the issues he had with grass in the past seem to be absent. Fritz was injured only a few games into the match, but Zverev took it to him. He landed 77% of his first serves, won 77% of those, and won 72% of his second serves. The picture that paints is accurate. His serving is top tier right now, and there are no issues with his delivery or double fault woes (only 2 for the match to go with 14 aces). The next problem is that his usual passive shot selection has also been adjusted. He was crushing his backhand against Fritz, and it has tremendous depth on the inside-out which is an extremely difficult shot to defend on grass. He saved all 4 break points he faced, and was 29-15 winners to unforced errors. This all spells a problem for Fery, because the last few victories have been grinds.

Fery beat Bergs by just outlasting him physically. He played well, but when Bergs was fresh he dominated. Fery beat Dimitrov by matching his baseline ability and dragging the match deep. Fery beat Cobolli by snagging an early lead and then playing consistent while his opponent swung big out of mild frustration. I don’t think any of these plans work against Zverev. He’s serving too well and his height and stable base make him a good returner. I think Fery’s quality will make for a very entertaining match, but his looks at breaking serve will probably be scarce and his own service games will be under constant pressure. Fery has been broken 13 times in the last three rounds and Zverev has been broken twice. Zverev in 3. He’s playing a better brand of tennis and he’s serving at his peak level.