2026 US Open Women's Singles First Round - Bottom Half

Women’s Singles :

Andreeva vs Tjen :

These two just played in Cincinnati and Andreeva won 6-1, 7-6. It’s about what you’d expect. Tjen has the biggest shot on the court with her forehand but it’s not possible to play constant offense and Andreeva doesn’t have huge holes in her game aside from a lack of power at times. I’d expect Andreeva to win in 2 again.

Knutson vs Lys :

Lys won their previous meeting in 2024 so this will likely be close given how well Knutson played in qualifying. Beating Lepchenko and Salkova is good stuff, and Lys just lost to Kenin in Cincinnati. I think the slight step up in level is going to be a tough one. Lys is vulnerable against most players but does have a good quality backhand and the ability to defend and move the ball well. Lys in 3.

Bartunkova vs Sherif :

Bartunkova had a great in Monterrey. It ended in a teary third set against Mertens, but Bartunkova’s serve and forehand are incredible and her ability to come up with ideas for shots is really useful. I think she only really struggles when he backhand is visibly weaker than her opponents because she sort of fights it off in those spots, so this is a safe match. Sherif is just not that good on hardcourt. Bartunkova in 2.

Maria vs Ostapenko :

I had the pleasure of watching some of Ostapenko’s practice session and she did not look enthused about tennis. This is not her weather and oddly in practice she missed a lot of low backhands. I could be conflating things but Maria’s slices are likely to be frustrating here. Maria won their two previous meetings but they were on grass which is understandable. I think Ostapenko going 0-2 in her leadup matches is telling. Maria in 2.

Potapova vs Valentova :

Valentova is in the finals of Philadelphia right now (thank you user prettytoe1692 for noting this event had not concluded) and I look at her as a rhythm player so I expect her to play well this week also. Fatigue is a slight concern since Potapova hits the ball big, but Anastasia just lost to Sloane Stephens and I haven’t seen the high level she played on clay recently. Valentova in 2-3.

Rus vs Jeanjean :

This is likely to go the distance, but I am again being swayed by in-person sights. Rus was struggling mightily against Bandecchi, but once she found her range she controlled the match completely. Since Jeanjean tends to win with her defense and forehand, I think Rus will have a hard time until she doesn’t. Jean jean has lost to Stefanini and Frech recently which is right around the level Rus is bringing. Aranxta also seemed unbothered by the conditions which I found impressive because I basically chose which stadium to attend by which had shade. Rus in 3.

Tagger vs Korpatsch :

Tagger was a big name coming out of the juniors and had some early success on tour. This was followed by the inevitable slump that comes with expectations, but in Prague she really played excellent ball and she’s brought that across the Atlantic Ocean. Korpatsch is a defensive wall so I always worry she’ll pull an upset, but Tagger beat her last season in straights and I think her serving gives her a big edge since Korpatsch doesn’t really have a big delivery. Korpatsch practiced with Seidel on Friday who has the same type of big power as Tagger, so I’d expect a very competitive 2-3 set win for Tagger. Just a side note but Tagger losing her last two matches makes me really disagree with the heavy -500 price tag that’s been attached. Starodubtseva is a somewhat similar task to Korpatsch because she’s looking to outlast you from the baseline. Staro has more power, but it’s never easy on tour.

Krueger vs Anisimova :

It’s funny to see discussion online of Anisimova’s big slump while she’s 10 in the world and just beat the Wimbledon champ in Cincinnati. I think there is a case to be made for her not being the pinnacle of focus and desire all the time, but Amanda has turned in so many good performances on offense that we’ve started to expect them. She very well could have beaten Pegula in Cincinnati (had a few open shots in the tiebreaker that she just missed) and she should beat Krueger here. Ashlyn has huge power and can run away with a match late, but she is likely going to be rushed here and Anisimova will be applying a lot of pressure to her second serve. Anisimova in 2.

Jovic vs Frech :

Frech is playing well recently and Jovic has been less than automatic. She’s another player who did so well in her early time on tour that we sort of expect her to just find a way to win. For a small athlete who hits big, I think this is slightly unrealistic. Switching balls and surfaces and grinding away for whole seasons is an easy way for players to wind up slightly flat or off in a given match. Iva should win this, but losses to Korneeva and Bouzkova in recent weeks show that she can be outlasted. Frech is a decent candidate to do this, I do think that she might be the less durable athlete though and she’s slightly outmatched off both wings. Jovic in 2-3.

Linette vs Jones :

Jones played excellent in qualifying and can absolutely win this match. Linette is capable of some great tennis, but she’s lost 4 of her last 5 and has been seen fairly frustrated on court both in matches and practice. It’s really hard to find your best tennis when you’re burnt out and it’s hot and humid, so I think the qualifier gets by here. Jones in 2.

Oliynikova vs Brantmeier :

Brantmeier had some early forays onto the tour but never really got the run of wins to stay there. This is absolutely a must-win for her. Olynikova is a scrappy defender but she makes all her $ on clay. I don’t think anyone else has been shut out or breadsticked on hardcourt this season as many times as her, and Brantmeier did play Shymanovich and Vandewinkel closely. Since Brantmeier has a slice backhand and not much in terms of tour results, this could go either way but one of them is at her best on the surface and the crowd should back her. Brantmeier in 3.

Eala vs Stoiana :

Stoiana is a good player and had a great run in qualifying, including beating Yue Yuan in the finals. If I was offered tickets to this match, I’d buy them. I don’t think the upset is really on the table, because Stoiana has had some troubles holding serve and Eala is a very tough player to score on. I don’t like Stoiana’s chances of hitting through her at 40-40, and Eala’s serve isn’t huge but is hit at a good % generally and is slightly annoying to return. Eala in 2.

Bejlek vs Bucsa :

Bucsa can keep this close but she hasn’t been consistent enough lately to hang with Bejlek. Bejlek in 2.

Kalinina vs Sakatsume :

This is a tricky spot. Sakatsume vs Ristic was the final round of qualifying and there was shade and a woman near me had tater tots I could smell so I watched the entire thing. Sakatsume was just more efficient on defense because she’s comfortable on hardcourt, but Ristic missed a lot of shots she didn’t exactly need to go for. She spent the match trying to wrestle back control and I’m not sure Kalinina will offer up the same misses. Kalinina has played 3 hardcourt matches the entire year and has lost two of them, but she took a set off Navarro. It’s the sort of match Kalinina could lose a 6-0 set in and I’d still think she had a decent chance to win. Sakatsume also doesn’t have huge power on her service delivery so I think Kalinina’s big swings may be effective. Kalinina in 3.

Badosa vs Kasatkina :

Badosa has not playing since Hamburg and Kasatkina has been pretty active, so I like her side here. She also won their last two hardcourt meetings. Badosa at her best can win, but if she was at her best she would not have skipped the warmup events. Kasatkina in 2 (I’m assuming Badosa is injured).

Gauff vs Sonmez :

Gauff serving well and hitting her forehand with confidence is a dangerous thing for the tour. Sonmez will make this exciting and she always competes, but right now Gauff is probably my pick to win this tournament. Gauff in 2.

Swiatek vs Wang Xiyu :

Tough opener for Swiatek since Wang hits the ball so big. Xiyu is a tall lefty with great power and an effective serve. Mobility wise I think she will get worked here, but it’s not exactly who I’d want to play in an early round and the Chinese players get a lot of support in NY. Swiatek in 2.

Podoroska vs Waltert :

Podoroska doesn’t necessarily have to lose this. She’s using her protected rankings to get into these events, but she did beat Seidel in Cincinnati. She has a good forehand, and Waltert isn’t really a hardcourt specialist. Waltert in 3 would be my guess but Podoroska might be able to drag this out and sneak a win.

Stearns vs Dart :

Stearns just won this matchup 1,6 in Cincinnati. Dart will be sharp coming off a qualifier run, but she was down and out against Watson and Stearns will be more familiar with her game this time. Dart did win their USO clash in 2021, but that is a long time ago. Stearns has become halfway consistent this season and I think she has the defensive ability to outlast Dart (who can make some racquet errors in long rallies and get frustrated). Stearns in 3.

Jacquemot vs Bouzkova :

Bouzkova has re-engaged wall mode and Jacquemot will not be able to deal with this. Bouzkova in 2.

Keys vs Korneeva :

Another really tough first round for a title hopeful. Keys is playing well this season, but Korneeva has recently played her peak level. If Madison doesn’t start off well she’ll wind up in a third set here, but Korneeva withdrew from her last match so she might not be 100%. Keys in 2-3.

Bondar vs Havlickova :

I like the qualifier here. Uchijima and Hibino are two very unique and difficult outs, and Havlickova was able to navigate both of them. She has good power, she’s fairly aggressive, and Bondar is better on clay (and just lost to Bucsa in Monterrey). Havlickova in 3.

Zheng vs Liutova :

Nooooo. Zheng is trying to get back on track, and Liutova is trying to establish herself on tour. I think both are possible, but this is a really unlucky first round for both. Liutova has qualified here, and won 2 of her last 3 events on or near tour. The one she didn’t win was a quarterfinals appearance, so it is safe to say this girl can seriously ball. If you watch her, the one thing that will stand out will be her willingness to hit the court. She has a very stable base and just seems like a ball machine. People send pace, she reflects it back. People make her run, she puts one extra ball back in play. With time or inside the baseline she does play an effective offense, and her play is really composed consider she’s still a junior. Very few players have done what she did in winning the Memphis title, and this is a winnable match for her.

To win here, something has to bother Zheng. Zheng serves much bigger than Liutova, and she has very repeatable mechanics on both wings. She’s very willing to trade moonballs, and the one thing that has unraveled her in my experience has been pace. If she’s having to rush, she tends to get stubborn about her shot selection and errors can build up. I don’t know that Liutova can really bother her with this, but I do think that she’ll be the more consistent player. If Liutova wins, it will have to be the long way. I expect Zheng to win when she’s in form, and again something will have to rattle her for Liutova to have a shot. Liutova in 3 of Zheng in 2. I don’t really think of Zheng as “back” yet, but I think she matches up decently here.

Putintseva vs Bencic :

Bencic is always good for a deep run at a major, and she’s been playing well this whole season. Putintseva is a fake test, and Bencic is not fake. Bencic in 2.

Osaka vs Zakharova :

Osaka will need her best tennis right away here. Her ability to reflect power on the backhand will be tested, because Zakharova goes for a winner on almost every shot. It reminds me (this will sound silly) of Cilic in a sense, because she never really hits a generic ball. Every shot is intended to move her opponent to the next position. This does leave her open to unforced errors at times and variance, but she’s gotten more consistent each season. I’m still expecting Osaka to come through, but a hyper-aggressive player is not who I’d want first round if I was her.

Cocciaretto vs Siniakova :

Cocciaretto withdrew from her last two matches with a knee injury and “illness”, so only her and her camp know how prepped for this she is. Siniakova is the favorite and she did win their previous hardcourt meeting.

Zidansek vs Timofeeva :

I found one small branch of shade at the Zidansek Andreescu match, and it was remarkable how well Andreescu was playing. It was also evident she was supplying all the offense, and it seems like she just hit herself out of the match eventually. Zidansek is good at dragging things out, and even though she was a bit lucky to advance, her winning in a marathon has been a hallmark of her career. Timofeeva withdrew from her last match, but had been in good form recently. If she’s healthy, she can win, but it’s a similar situation where it needs to happen quickly.

Quevedo vs Mertens :

Quevedo has a really nice game with crisp groundstrokes and good speed, but her hardcourt results are not good enough to think she has a shot here. Mertens is in the Monterrey finals and is likely to show up in excellent form here. Mertens in 2.

Sakkari vs Montgomery :

Sakkari just played 3 with Swiatek in Cincinnati, and Montgomery just needed a huge comeback to beat Carson Branstine, but their odds are fairly close. This does not make sense to me, so perhaps America loves Montgomery (fair), or perhaps someone knows something I don’t (illegal!), or perhaps they’re just wrong. Sakkari can implode at any moment, but she’s still a great athlete and can play some tennis. She has wins against Rakhimova and Korneeva recently and I think her level is good enough to beat Montgomery. I’m having trouble finding her record against lefties but I think she does have a fairly compact backhand with not much backswing so I could see high topspin forehands from Montgomery being an issue. Idk. Sakkari in 2.

Starodubtseva vs Seidel :

It is unclear to me when Staro will ball and when she won’t find the court. I do think Seidel did well to practice against Korpatsch since Starodubtseva will be a similarly wallish task, but her hardcourt results have not been good enough thus far for me to see her winning this. Starodubtseva in 3. I think Seidel can definitely blast her off the court for a set, but that’s probably it.

Vidmanova vs Bouzas Maneiro :

Big puzzle here. Vidmanova has a tremendous serve and is very good at closing to net. She’s capable of beating most players on tour, and definitely can get to the business end of most sets. The trouble is that she’s not the best defender yet, so players can also score on her. Bouzas Maneiro is very difficult to predict. She was hitting her backhand incredibly well in her last few outtings, but still lost to Siniakova and Wang. While she lost to them, she did almost beat Svitolina, so it’s a puzzle knowing when she’s really going to thrive and when she’s going to slump. Sometimes Bouzas will just spray errors, and when her timing goes she can lose a set quickly. Double faults, errors, these things will hand the match to Vidmanova. If Vidmanova gets a break, I think she can close out. The flip side is that I don’t think she has the rally tolerance to deal with Bouzas, and I think this winds up in a third. Vidmanova in 3, but I do not think this match is knowable until it begins.

Rybakina vs Frodin :

Thea Frodin actually was the stunt double for Serena in the King Richard movie which is pretty cool. She has a solid serve and a pretty useful backhand, so the future is bright for her after winning the USTA 18s Championship and getting herself a wildcard spot here. I don’t think she can beat Rybakina, but she should acquit herself well. Rybakina in 2.