2026 US Open Women's Semifinals

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Pegula :

Sabalenka looks good for this title right now, but this is her biggest test yet. Last round with Noskova was a tense shootout between two huge offenses, but Sabalenka was in a similar range of winners/unforced errors in that match. When your opponent is also making some errors, yours don’t seem as bad. Against Pegula, Sabalenka’s unforced error count really does matter. Pegula came in this week with a lot of hype around her level, and she’s played well for most of every match.

Pegula against Navarro was a dominant h2h for JPeg, but the match was very event. Navarro’s backhand being consistent this week and her serve landing made her instantly a top 10 opponent, and it took a long time for Pegula to break her down. It didn’t necessarily come from Emma fumbling, but Pegula started to really find her range on returns and on offense in the third. She was the player hitting with full conviction on winner attempts, and she started to time her forehand during the rally very well, and also her backhand return down the line from the ad side. 3 sets with Navarro doesn’t sound great on paper last week, but Pegula has been more consistent than her opponent in every round, and here she will need to rely on that.

Sabalenka and Pegula have played 13 times already on tour, with Sabalenka up 9-4. The thing I’d note in Pegula’s favor is that their last 4 matches have all gone to a deciding set. It isn’t easy to guarantee victory since Sabalenka’s offense is bigger and more varied, but Pegula is able to get deep into these matches consistently. Pegula’s spot serving has been pretty good leading into this, and it will need to remain solid because Sabalenka getting full swings usually spells a simple 1 break win for her. Sabalenka is going to serve bigger and she was at 61% last round, and that’s about good enough to make her the favorite here. She was in the positive for winners to unforced in her last match, and I think she’s comfortable with a shootout in this environment. The main reason I think Aryna edges by is that Navarro was able to go up a break twice in the third set. If she had Sabalenka’s serve, she likely would have held onto one of those advantages. This should be really entertaining and Pegula can frustrate Sabalenka with her low, powerful, flat hitting. The stretches where Aryna makes errors will see her donate games, but I did like her offensive production last round and I think when she’s hitting the court she’s always a favorite. Sabalenka in 3.

Gauff vs Rybakina :

Rybakina had injury questions coming into this event but she has played excellent thus far. The match against Zheng featured big hitting from both players, but the theme behind Rybakina’s wins is that once she starts hitting the court, she’s relatively unplayable. Rybakina can make simple errors due to her big swings and slow lateral movement, but when she makes clean contact the ball takes off beautifully. She’s just solid enough from the baseline to create pressure for her opponents, and her serve makes up for a lot of the errors that come in when she’s stretched wide. This was a tremendous run for Zheng and it shows that she’s getting back to her old levels, but for now Rybakina has taken over the #1 ranking on tour and it looks possible for her to win this.

Gauff and Rybakina played in Toronto about a month ago and the match went to Rybakina in 3. There’s no guarantee this result repeats itself since Gauff has beaten her before also (2-1 in Toronto 2022), but there were some factors there that will be tough to change. Rybakina has a big edge in this matchup in the forehand exchanges. Gauff is hitting this shot better lately, but she can’t really score in their neutral exchanges. I think this will apply pressure to that wing over a long match and Gauff is prone to some deceleration so she will wind up on defense a lot. The good news is that she’s the best athlete on the women’s tour, and defending and becoming a wall is one of her best modes. Gauff also has an edge in the backhand exchanges, and in Toronto she was able to score easily on Rybakina with shots down the line when she had control of rallies. Rybakina is not running down great shots, and when she has to pick a side she’s not likely to come up with passes. It’s the neutral rallies where I think her power and mechanics being fairly repeatable (when going cross-court) makes a little bit of difference. In the serving department Rybakina is much better. She can throw in some uncomfortably predictable double faults in big moments, but since their previous two matches both went to a third, I think she’ll have ample chances to convert and make up for these lapses. 

Overall Rybakina is hovering at a higher base level, and Gauff is defending much better but playing a smaller game. I would also say that Gauff is around her best level, and Rybakina is not quite at hers yet, so I don’t see a real way for either of these players to pull away completely. I would expect it to be hard for whomever wins the first to keep up the output, and oddly they both have been slow starters who seem to pull away in the second so I’m expecting the tennis in the second to be extremely high level. Rybakina in 3 sort of has to be the pick here. Gauff has the hometown crowd and she’s playing really well, but Rybakina just won in similar conditions and the 2nd and 3rd set were double break wins (5-7, 6-2, 6-2).