2026 US Open Women's Finals

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Rybakina :

Heading into this event there were questions floating around about the strength of both of these players. Sabalenka had suffered a handful of losses to players considered somewhat below her caliber. Those players were peaking offensively (Baptiste, Bejlek, Alexandrova), but it still had her looking somewhat vulnerable. A tricky contest against Townsend and a dead-even clash with Noskova added to the intrigue, but last round Sabalenka was as good as she has been all season. She was serving extremely well, and any serves within her wingspan were battered. Sabalenka was taking about 2-3 swings on average to end a point, and Pegula tried to weather to storm and wait for a letdown, but it just didn’t come.

While Sabalenka was establishing a new ceiling in this event, Rybakina and Gauff had the epic clash they always do. It almost mirrored their Toronto clash as far as the flow of play. Early on Gauff was able to score a bit easier in baseline rallies, and her pace and defense had Rybakina making errors. The set could have gone either way, and I think this is unfortunately the way of big clashes in the WTA sometimes. Whoever plays the 30-30 point mid-set the best manages to go up 3 games in a set where both players were fairly equal. The big difference in the first (aside from Gauff facing 0 break points) was that Gauff won half of her second serve return points. This let her apply pressure in moments where Rybakina was already a little tenser, and Gauff is very hard to beat when you’re not serving great (Rybakina was at 52% in the first set).

In the second, things flipped a little. Rybakina started serving a bit better (56%), and Gauff’s serve percentage dropped a bit (48%). This was really the difference, but as Rybakina was able to keep Gauff behind her in the scoreline after an early break, she was able to play a bit freer. Elena can make puzzles mistakes and freeze a bit on her groundstrokes, but when she has the lead she tends to open up and hit cleaner (and swing faster which helps). The finals set saw Gauff really step it back up, and it seemed like it was headed for a tense finish. Gauff landed 71% of her first serves in the final set, but the last three games abruptly ended in breaks of serve, and Rybakina advanced.

It was a great moment for Rybakina and a well-deserved final, but I am not sure she displayed the better tennis. The wrinkle there is that I think she defeated the more difficult opponent. Gauff has greatly improved her serving, and while it isn’t the most technically pure swing, she has figured out how to swing on her forehand to create angles and to generate depth. Having that comfort in varying swing speeds to produce height and depth is a really good thing to iron out, and since Gauff was already winning and challenging for titles with a serve/forehand issue, it’s possible she could continue to improve. Gauff praise aside, I think Sabalenka is the early favorite for this title. She can match Rybakina in the serve department, she hits the ball as big off both wings, and the X factor here for me is her movement. Sabalenka can hustle very well for a taller player, and she is physically strong in a way that allows her to ratchet things up as she goes.

Sabalenka is 2-0 against Rybakina this year, and I’d point to some stats from their Miami meeting that I think tell the story. Sabalenka served fewer first serves in, but won a higher percentage of them. She won way more return points on first serve (43 vs 17) and more on second as well (57 vs 45). The story it tells me is that her quickness and defense allow her to convert more often on defense, and this applies a lot of pressure to Rybakina’s serve over time. Rybakina’s shot selection is steadier and her ballstriking has a more repeatable technique on her forehand, but I think she’s basically playing the role of Pegula here where she needs to stay the course and wait for a Sabalenka letdown. For Rybakina to win here she needs to play her best from start to finish, so I think she will wind up down a set and this time she wont have as many opportunities to control rallies in the second. Sabalenka in 2.