2026 US Open Men's & Women's Singles Third Round - Day 2

Women’s Singles :

Andreeva vs Bartunkova :

I know Andreeva is supposed to win this, but it’s tough to overlook Bartunkova’s offense. She’s serving great, and hitting her forehand well. If you want her to practice long difficult rallies, she just spent two hours doing just that. Bartunkova and her team had a great plan against Tatjana Maria. Maria slices like 90% of her shots, and this can really throw players off. Bartunkova solved this equation though, and other players should follow suit. Rather than grind rallies out or look for the perfect ball, Bartunkova just came to net constantly. She got lobbed after hitting some volleys right back to Maria, but basically she was able to cut off Maria’s slices before they ever became an issue, and the constant pressure eventually paid off because Maria has no plan B. She can’t shift to the topspin game, so unless she starts hitting slice passes down the line, she can’t defend against this. Steve Johnson can also tell you that slice passes down the line are too slow to get past anyway.

I think Bartunkova will lose long rallies to Andreeva, but maybe she can stay out of them. This is the first big test of Andreeva this event, and I think her hardcourt results so far haven’t been beyond question. She lost to Kostyuk, she lost to Fernandez, and Bartunkova at her best is a tough matchup. Andreeva in 3 would be my guess. I do think she’s improved on serve and will do well here, but Bartunkova has the offense to make her consistency less of a factor.

Potapova vs Anisimova :

Anisimova had a really tough test against Tagger. Lilli is shaping up to be a really enjoyable player to watch, and her height makes it so that she doesn’t have to hit the ball at full exertion to be effective. Early on Tagger was rushing Anisimova on the forehand and that caused a bit of trouble. As the match dragged, Amanda started getting the ball deep to Tagger’s backhand and that proved to be her best tactic. Tagger has a great one-hander, but having to half-volley over and over is a tricky task, especially when anything short will be dealt with by Anisimova.

Next for Anisimova is a very winnable match against Potapova. Potapova hits the ball heavy and can catch fire for a few games, but she’s not been her best on hardcourt and she raised and dropped her level at times against Jeanjean, needing 3 sets to get through. I think this is relatively safe for Anisimova, and my biggest concern for the Americans right now is that whatever virus is going around seems to be in their camp. Gauff, Pegula, and Svajda have all indicated or appeared to be dealing with some malaise. Anisimova in two.

Jovic vs Eala :

Jovic is 2-0 in this matchup, but I expect this to be very close. So far this tournament, Jovic has won matches, but hasn’t really been dominant. At the start of the year she was hanging onto her serve more comfortably, and Eala is playing very well this week. Jones and Frech are solid players, but I would rate Eala higher than them right now. Jovic’s recent losses to Bouzkova and Korneeva have also been to players who are difficult to hit through. Jovic’s first win against Eala was on clay and I think she has a bit more power than Eala so that makes sense. The second was on grass and again Jovic’s offense has a bit more mettle to it to a fast court helps. Hardcourt is probably Eala’s best surface, so I will tentatively say this goes to a third. I don’t rally see a great place for Eala to score here, and one of the benefits to having a great backhand (which Iva does) is that you can negate some of the lefty tactics. There’s not a lot to separate them. Both are having great years, they’re ranked only 4 spots apart (14 Jovic and 18 Eala), and they both will have a ton of crowd support. I think Jovic has been slightly there for the taking in the early rounds, so I’d give the ever slightest chance to Eala to make this happen. Eala in 3.

Bucsa vs Gauff :

Gauff admitted having a cold and that’s scary stuff for her fans. We have already seen several players look completely unable to play, and I’m not sure what measures can be taken to remove a cold in a short time period. If Gauff is fine, this is a fairly simple match for her. Bucsa has incredible offense, but she also misses quite often, and her balance/strength when she’s forced to run and hit can suffer on her backhand wing. Gauff in 2. I think Bucsa needs a very fast start in any given set to get to the end with a chance.

Swiatek vs Bouzkova :

Swiatek is playing solid hardcourt again, and it’s easy to forget she won this tournament in 2022. Bouzkova is a tough out, but doable for Iga. Bouzkova makes you play 2 hours of tennis, but I think Swiatek’s ability to redirect with control and the way she holds her backhand makes her very tough to read here. Bouzkova’s defense will make this interesting but I think Swiatek wins in 2. She has yet to drop a set to Bouzkova in her career.

Keys vs Zheng :

Can Zheng do this? Madison Keys wasn’t at her best in the first round, and struggled again against Bondar. She had to save match points, and required a massive comeback from 5-2 down in the third set. At the same time, Zheng was playing some very solid tennis when she needed to. Early against Putintseva she could barely land a first serve (41%), but in the third set she served the best she has all tournament. The equation here is pretty simple. If she’s serving well she can win against the level Keys has displayed thus far. If she’s not landing she’s likely to get battered, because even in difficult form Keys still hits the ball very hard. The thing that makes me think this is possible is their Miami match. Keys wasn’t at her best and Zheng was able to win in three. I’m expecting something similar here. Keys needed to get very lucky last round, and Zheng has sort of been hinting at her old level this week. Zheng in 3.

Osaka vs Mertens :

This is a replay of the Toronto match from a few weeks ago that saw Osaka win 1,2. Osaka has played solid this week and every few months on tour she’s improved a tiny bit. I don’t think she’s ready to win a major title just yet, but she’s able to produce top 10 tennis again. Mertens is coming off the title in Monterrey so she’ll probably fare a bit better here, but it’s hard to overlook their Toronto match and Osaka doesn’t really look fatigued. She’ll also gt a lot of crowd support in NY. Osaka in 2.

Starodubtseva vs Rybakina :

It’s probably very fresh in both players minds that Starodubsteva beat Rybakina in 3 at Roland Garros this year. Hardcourt obviously gives Rybakina’s game a huge boost, and I think her serving gets her through here. I really like Starodubtseva’s ability to find a level of striking and stay locked in, but I think Rybakina has looked sharp this week and should only really see difficulty late in the second set. Rybakina in 2.

Men’s Singles :

Zverev vs Tabilo :

5 sets! Zverev has really struggled to win comfortably so far, and it half makes sense. He was seen throwing a racquet during a practice before this event, and the sharp hardcourt level he has shown at times this year just hasn’t been there. His game is good enough that he’s been able to clutch these matches, but with Alcaraz coasting and Fritz at his best, Zverev is starting to look like a second week contender rather than a favorite. Next for him is Tabilo, who outlasted Popyrin. I don’t think Tabilo is the guy to take Zverev out, but Zverev has just been mediocre this week. Tabilo’s backhand is not strong enough to win this match, but I half expect him to get a set based off Zverev’s struggle so far. Zverev in 4.

Darderi vs Sweeny :

Svrcina was pretty solid against Darderi, but he just has to win way too many points from the baseline in long rallies to thrive on hardcourt. Darderi has the big serve and the big forehand against these baseliners that allows him to win, and that is my story here against Sweeny also. Sweeny was one of the first to win via weather, as Musetti was doubled over after almost every point in this match. It’s a great result for Sweeny, but he still only really scores on his forehand and I think Darderi hits that shot much bigger and has the stamina to win. Darderi in 3.

Zheng vs Gea :

Very interesting. Gea has beaten Zheng twice this year, and while they were both 3 setters, Gea has a 6-0 or a 6-1 set in both meetings. I wouldn’t have guessed this heading in, but Gea has proven to be that Starodubtseva style player who finds a level from the baseline and stays in it. He’s a strong finisher, and last round he completely dominated Svajda so he may have physically recovered from his 5 set exploits against Cerundolo. The Svajda win was fortuitous, but I didn’t really think Svajda was okay. He could barely land serves, and he hit his forehand wide and long regularly. It’s as bad as I’ve seen him play, and night and day from his match against Altmaier. I’m not giving everyone the virus excuse this week, but he was in puzzling form. Zheng defeated the hero Bu in 4 sets, and it was some of the best tennis I’ve seen from him. He always fares well at this event, and he’s hitting his forehand down the line really calmly. Since Gea won both of their previous meetings, I think he will have an impact on Zheng’s game. The one thing Zheng can struggle with is players who can isolate his backhand, and Gea will know that. Gea in 5. I really do think Zheng wins at least one of the early sets, and there is no way he plays as bad as Svajda.

Bergs vs Van De Zandschulp :

Interesting that these two have not met yet on tour. Also unfortunate, because despite Botic’s wins I don’t think this is a simple one. Bergs main focus is pushing the pace and rushing his opponents, and Botic is a tiny bit slow. Bergs played well last round also and navigated a tough out; De Jong was really serving well (kinda unexpected) and hitting his backhand down the line very well (kinda unexpected). With Zverev looking rough, Botic half looks like he could go on a run here, so this match is one I think he’ll want to leave it all out there on. Start off fast, never give up the lead, and you can really make Bergs game look generic. If the scoreline is close or he gets a lead, he starts playing much more aggressively. Bergs is a belief player and you must not allow the ball to go through the hoop. I think Botic serves better here, but he has to be a little more careful about how he plays on defense. He’s done a fair bit of softer hitting, and Bergs can take advantage of this. As for De Minaur, it does look like his best days are behind him. I don’t know if it’s nice to add that, but he has just seemed unable to get automatic this season. Botic in 4.

Khachanov vs Bonzi :

Buse looked absolutely exhausted against Bonzi, and it sets up a fun match against a resurgent Karen Khachanov. Khachanov is through after a solid upset of FAA. Felix was hitting the ball heavy early and it looked like the workload for Khachanov would be immense, but Felix started to make errors after the first and never found his best game this week. Bonzi is solid and is capable of elevating for a big match, so this is not a blowout. He has a really solid backhand, and I think this will come down to who is able to execute for longer. Khachanov is my pick to do this. He’s playing well this week, he doesn’t have much wear and tear on him from this season because he’s been losing and inactive, and Bonzi thus far hasn’t played anyone as good as him. Khachanov in 4.

Mensik vs Tien :

Today was pretty good, but Saturday looks amazing. These two have only met once, in the Next Gen finals, and it was a thrilling 5 set affair. Can we get another? Mensik is not likely to love the heat here in NY, but he’s playing well and his draw hasn’t been too rough so far. The problem I see arising is that Tien is such a difficult out. He can place the ball anywhere in the court and he constantly makes his opponent run. It doesn’t really appear to be super strenuous work for him most of the time, and he made quick work of Monfils so he’ll be fresh here. Mensik’s serve and power can definitely keep him in this, but I think Tien actually has the edge in a long match despite not having a huge weapon at his disposal. His serve being returnable almost helps him wear down his opponents because they have to play semi-long rallies a few times each service game, and I think over time Mensik’s forehand will break down a little bit as it’s probably the only swing on the court that isn’t very reliable. Tien in 5.

Fritz vs Cerundolo :

Cerundolo and Struff had a very swingy clash, and in the end Cerundolo was just a little more steady. I don’t think his recent level gives him any chance here, as Fritz just turned in the highest level performance of anyone in the event last round. Bellucci isn’t really a threat, but Fritz lost only 2 games in the match. I think Fritz will be clinical again, and Cerundolo’s struggles have alternated appearance with his powerful hitting. Fritz has the defensive swings to deal with big hitting, and his only real weakness here is his movement. Fritz in 3.

Blockx vs Cobolli :

Cobolli has established quite well that he does not need the first set to win matches, but he has a hard matchup here. These two just played in Cincinnati, and Cobolli won 7-5, 4-6, 7-5. That doesn’t really indicate a dominant matchup, and Cobolli has been playing rough at times in this event. Cobolli is Keys for me right now. He’s winning, but it’s not really with his best level of tennis and his best results on tour usually feature that. Blockx is executing his offense really well, and I think he can pull the upset off here. Cobolli really can’t afford to go down in the scoreline here, but when you’re struggling for confidence and playing a big server, that can be a tough ask. Blockx in 4.