2026 US Open Men's & Women's Singles Third Round - Day 1

Men’s Singles :

Medvedev vs Rinderknech :

I saw some nice AI written tennis articles saying Medvedev’s experience in NY would give him a big edge here. I’m not so sure. Medvedev looked more focused in round one, and he has yet to drop a set, but heading into this event he wasn’t really at his best, and this round is a massive step up in competition from anyone he’s played so far. Gorzny did fine against Daniil, but isn’t really a threat. Gaston has a tremendously entertaining game, but grinding out wins on outdoor hardcourt has never been something that was expected from him. Rinderknech is playing as well as I’ve seen him, and he’s been building this momentum for quite some time. He’s up to 29 in the world, and Medvedev has had trouble with serve and volley players at times in the past. His accuracy will be put to the test in a big way here, and I think his forehand will have to shape up if he wants to win. 

The Botic Van De Zanschulp loss was fixated one theme: Medvedev’s forehand being unable to penetrate the court. He had openings, but couldn’t really swing full and feel confident. It let Botic just hit calm looping forehand to that side when he was in trouble, and Medvedev really was rendered ineffective unless Botic made an unforced error. I’m not sure if Rinderknech’s team will be altering his strategy, but Medvedev’s forehand not being accurate is an issue because the route past Rinderknech is to convert passing shots. I am sure that Med’s backhand is up to the task as he’s hitting it cleanly this week, but that’s just half the battle. Medvedev just lost to Rinderknech in Shanghai last season, and while he’s known for tanking in the smaller events, I don’t see a quick way for him through this match. He’s going to have to grind, and he’s going to have to manage his emotions which has been an issue for him the past few months. I would expect Rinderknech to win at least one of the opening sets, but since Munar was able to almost wear him down it’s hard to see him completely pulling off the upset. Medvedev in 5 feels like where I’d land, but Daniil has not beaten anyone good at all recently, and after watching Felix and De Minaur unable to summon their best tennis it’s difficult to put a lot of faith in Medvedev.

Vacherot vs Tiafoe :

This is a very hectic section of the draw. Two weeks ago Tiafoe was the easy pick here. He made the finals in Cincinnati, and he’s had a decent year. The first round saw Tiafoe barely beat Martin Damm though, and Vacherot came out playing excellent. I’ll go quickly because it’s already getting late: I don’t see a quick way past Vacherot for Tiafoe. He’s in great shape, he has a huge serve, and his backhand is just solid enough to keep him from landing in that Hurkacz category where his slightly slow speed and height make him miss shots. Frances leveled up against Sakamoto in terms of the scoreline, but I’ll set aside this match and say that this section of the draw is not great for someone to win the USO. There are a lot of very offensive players, and Medvedev/Rinderknech are there in the next round. It’s a lot of work very early and a lot of unique offenses that take a lot of focus and scramble to beat.

Tiafoe does tend to elevate when he is at this event, and this is the match he needs to do so in. I am not sure that will happen. The one thing working for him is Vacherot being freshly back to competing on tour, but there’s no way to guarantee that he hits a wall until he hits one. Sakatoto got close, Damm almost won, and Vacherot is a lot more durable from the baseline than either of them, and serves similarly well. Vacherot in 4 is the awkward outcome I think is most likely. Tiafoe has been able to drag and outlast many opponents, but I think he’s a little fatigued himself after the Cincinnati result and Valentin was one of the most impressive players for me in the first few rounds.

Michelsen vs Merida Aguilar :

The hot and humid conditions at the USO are extremely difficult, but ever since the Jodar match I have wondered if something isn’t going around in the locker room. Many players have crashed out looking flat, but they also look genuinely nauseous. Djokovic, Fils, Musetti, Nakashima, Jodar, these are guys who generally don’t hit a wall only one round or one set into an event. Gauff indicated she has a cold (which is rough as she was my pre-tournament pick to win), and I think there is a slight flu or virus going around. As such, Michelsen’s result is both wildly impressive and also hard to place. He played great, but Nakashima wasn’t himself. It makes this match another tough one, but this whole half of the draw is rough this round. Good thing for the tournament as I think we get a bunch of 4-5 setters of high quality, but bad thing for small turtles attempting to predict tennis.

Merida had some dumb questions for his box early on in the match, but eventually Rublev started to fall apart more. I am not a fan of people who make an error or double fault and then gesture to their box for an answer. There is no question. Go get tennis balls and try again. Asking what you’re doing wrong is okay, but it’s also a very troubling question. How much tennis do you need to play to know you decelerated and hit the net. To me, it’s almost always complaints and blame deflection, which again is troubling because nobody is assigning blame. Your box is supporting you, and mistakes are part of sport. Solo sports are really difficult to navigate, and you are not a robot. The crashouts are natural at times, but distractions are a leak, and Merida’s ship has a few leaks. Kyrgios, Zverev, and a handful of other players who don’t spend time pruning their mindbush have done similar stuff, and since Merida has such an entertaining game, I hope he leaves this habit behind as he continues settling in to the tour.

Merida can score on Michelsen, and Michelsen can score on Merida. Michelsen’s serving is big enough, and heavy balls to Merida’s backhand can force errors. At the same time, Merida has deft dropshots and real unpredictable shotmaking, and Michelsen is a little bit clunky at times when it comes to changing direction. Both of their most recent losses were to Fritz, and these two just played in Montreal with Merida winning a very competitive 3 set match. Michelsen won in Indian Wells in straights, so I think part of the story here is that the pace of the court helps Merida a little, but also that he is improving. I’d say Michelsen is near his peak, and Merida is also. Very likely this goes to a few tiebreakers and I’ll take a 5 setter if it’s available. Merida in 5.

Etcheverry vs Navone :

Navone outlasted Djokovic, and outlasted Berrettini. Will he outlast Etcheverry? Neither one of these players is unbeatable on hardcourt, but I think Etcheverry has equal stamina to Navone here. Etch also hits a much heavier ball and serves better, but the wrinkle here is that Navone’s swings are more repeatable. His backhand is extremely solid, and despite Tomas’ run here, it’s been a mediocre hardcourt season for him. This will take 4.5 hours for Etcheverry to win, but he’s my pick. It seems dumb to doubt Navone after he beat two players that I would have beating Etcheverry, but … oh wait that is dumb. Hmm. Dang. Idk. I think Etcheverry has the combination of physical strength and hard hitting that it will take to win, so I will stick with it, but hmm. Anytime the universe allows you to realize how dumb you are, it’s a blessing. Etcheverry in 5.

Shelton vs Shapovalov :

LVA and Svajda are my two most interesting puzzles from this round. Musetti would be on the list but it’s pretty clear he was struggling in the heat. LVA was a wall against Norrie, and could not hit the court against Shapo. It was a very one-sided affair, and he never found his rhythm as he usually does. It left me thinking Shapo would be a very tough out, but now he’s playing another lefty with probably a larger offensive output, so it’s tricky. Shelton is also 4-0 against Shapovalov. Their most recent match in Dallas went to 3, and I’d echo that here. Shapovalov is playing too well to get shut out here, but Shelton got great reps in against a bigger serve last round, and I don’t think Shelton is going to give him the sort of gifts that LVA did. Shelton in 4.

Lehecka vs Tsitsipas :

Lehecka has won the last two meetings here (both in 2024), and I think that is a little surprising. Even with Tsitsipas’ decline, Lehecka still loses a ton of matches on tour. I would have thought that Tsitsipas being able to rush him with forehand pace would have an effect, but perhaps not. Tsitsipas is maybe one of the bright surprises of this draw, as his first round against Fils is not a match many expected him to win. He had some struggles early with Harris, but won in 4. Lehecka and Tsitsipas have about the same amount of problem-solving skill on court, but both can serve huge and smash the ball on their forehand side when they’re playing well. Lehecka actually has an advantage here on the backhand exchanges even though he can lose range, but I’ll be honest I spend a lot of the year fading Lehecka. The weeks he plays well are difficult for me to accept, and he’s been playing solid lately. The old Tsitsipas could win this, so this will basically show whether he’s still going to be a factor on tour or not. I don’t think he’s winning titles, but he’s become a very good draw for most opponents so this tier of opponent would be a new height if he wins. Lehecka in 4 is my pick. Tsitsipas is surging but his backhand is still a target.

Bublik vs Paul :

Bublik rolling Mannarino was pretty impressive, simply because it required him to focus and keep the ball in the court for a few hours. That’s the level of focus that actually will help against Tommy Paul, because Tommy’s game really does ebb and flow. Paul has all the tools necessary to compete with the highest level opposition, but at times he can sprays errors because he has a very whippy forehand and uses a lot of height and shape. His backhand is solid, but he has pretty significant extension on it so at times he can get caught reaching.

Their last meeting was a 5 set win for Bublik in last year’s US Open, and given their approximate levels coming in here it makes sense for them to have another very close contest. I’d caution that Bublik had one of his best years last season, and also that it was his first win against Tommy in quite some time. I like Bublik again, and it’s mostly because Paul has dropped sets due to sloppy play. I think Bublik can crash out and dump service games, but his technique doesn’t tend to disappear for a whole game the way Tommy’s can. Paul is also carrying a lingering ab issue which hasn’t been present but always makes me hesitant to believe he’s 100%. Bublik in 4.

Wu vs Alcaraz :

Alcaraz dropped the first set against Faria, and I think the scrutiny and worry lasted about 5 minutes. He proceeded to zip Faria in the next game, and it was a solid performance from Alcaraz. His odds in the futures markets quickly jumped, but those tend to reflect public perception so I am still expecting him to have a difficult time against Paul/Bublik. If that gives away my pick here, I apologize. Wu is playing great, and hits the ball really well on his forehand wing. He’s great at trading pace, so this is going to be a really good match to watch, I just have a hard time awarding him the win in his comeback tour. Their previous match in Shanghai was a straight set win for Alcaraz, and here I’d actually consider it a great sign for his level if he can dismiss Wu in straights. I am a big Wu fan, and Carlos does tend to donate sets because his goal is to enjoy the game and get to the finish line, but I think the issue here is that Wu plays at one speed. His game is almost all fast paced hitting, and it requires some variation to really beat Carlos since he employs so many pace changes himself. Alcaraz in 3.

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Rakhimova :

It is now midnight EST and I think I’m running out of time for anyone to even read this, so I’m gonna go quickly here. Sabalenka was as good as she’s been in a while last round against Iatcenko. Normally she could find a way to struggle with Rakhimova, but with that performance I think she can win 6-3, 6-3.

Townsend vs Shnaider :

Really fun matchup here between two very similar players. Both have slightly slow lateral movement, but make up for it with heavy hitting and good serves. I’d say Townsend serves better, but she can make errors and Shnaider’s swing production is more reliable. I’m expecting Townsend’s best shot to be the first set, but for Shnaider’s pace to be an issue for her after that. Shnaider in 3.

Kostyuk vs Alexandrova :

I’m starting to see Kostyuk as a bit of a pusher. It isn’t a bad thing and her ability to grind out matches is exceptional, but it makes it hard to like her in matchups against offensive talents. You need to have some way to get yourself clear of opponents to really get the big titles. The opposite view of this (and the more positive one) is that she is maxing out her ability. She doesn’t do anything “the best”, but she does everything well and she has fought her way to the top of the tour in a manner that didn’t really look possible early in her career. She has adopted a more tenacious attitude, has maxed out her fitness, and she’s regularly challenging for the titles that I worry she cannot get. Alexandrova is sometimes very dangerous, but 3 sets with Birrell is not a great sign. I think this is not her weather at all, and the volume of tennis you have to play to beat Marta will be an issue. Kostyuk in 2-3.

Li vs Noskova :

Li and Vekic played a really fun match. If you had either player to win, you probably had a very rough time, but if you enjoy watching tense rallies and seeing big hitting, you had a great night. Li and Noskova is likely to be another big offensive showing, and I think Noskova’s serving is more reliable so she should win. Li is peaking, but I think these two have very similar shot selection and Noskova is actually a big more skillful in every department and slightly more consistent. Noskova in 2. Early in her career she routinely played 3 sets, but I have a hard time saying why Li will get a set unless Noskova throws in 2-3 games in a row full of errors.

Pegula vs Fernandez :

Pegula won this matchup in Miami earlier this year, but Fernandez beat her in Washington the year before and those are very similar conditions to the USO. Fernandez is playing well this week, but honestly so is Pegula and Jess is still in or near the top 5 contenders to win this title. Fernandez wins mostly all her points from the baseline and Pegula is solid enough to defend against her and probably a bit more solid in neutral rallies. Fernandez has found her best tennis again, but it’s perhaps still not enough. Pegula in 2.

Paolini vs Cirstea :

Paolini is 3-0 against Cirstea, but I might pick against her here anyway. Stefanini proved to be a bad choice. It felt like Paolini was there for the taking, but Stefanini plays solid and earns errors. In this matchup, Paolini wound up being the only one really creating a lot of offense for herself. I’m not sure if Paolini will keep leveling up at this event goes, but I have to go with what I’ve seen. Cirstea has been hitting incredibly good shots on a consistent basis, and she beat a very solid Parry last round. Paolini’s defense and proclivity for height and moonballs will create some issues, but I think she’s in that ADM category where she’s dropped a whole level. Cirstea in 2.

Svitolina vs Kalinskaya :

Kalinskaya beat Svitolina 3,4 in Doha at exactly this price, and she’s playing decent ball here also. Svitolina is looking like she’ll end up one of the greatest players never to win a major, but I think she’s still in the top ten candidates to take this title. This should be a long grind, and even though Maya Joint had Svitolina on the ropes, I think Svitolina remains the more tenacious option here. Kalinskaya is known for medical timeouts and injury woes, and Svitolina will have a hard time but ample motivation. Svitolina in 3.

Navarro vs Muchova :

Navarro and McNally reminded me a lot of Stefanini Paolini. McNally was able to dominate when she was earning errors, but Navarro hitting the court made her look somewhat ineffective at times. Navarro Muchova should be fun, but Muchova actually made this prediction easy last round. Boulter was struggling, but Muchova has really carried her mixed doubles level into the singles. She has better offensive capabilities than Navarro, and I think her fitness is a little better right now also. Muchova in 2.