2026 US Open Men's & Women's Singles Fourth Round - Day 2

Men’s Singles :

Zverev vs Darderi :

At the start of the tournament, I felt Zverev was a cut above most of the field and that a deep run would be pretty simple. The 2nd and 3rd tier names sound exciting at the start of an event, but when it’s the quarterfinals and Zverev is playing a Mensik or a Tien, it takes a very special performance from them to win. Zverev’s average is high, even if for a top player, his average is low. So far this week Zverev has not looked sharp. He can still hit the ball and play tennis, but he’s been winding up deep in the court, his timing doesn’t look great, and his forehand has been average. This would spell disaster, but his draw has opened up massively. He now plays Darderi in the 4th round, and despite Luciano’s great season, he is into this round due to a favorable draw also.

Darderi has played Wendelken, Svrcina, and Sweeny to get here. This is a great draw even though they’re all fine players. Darderi does almost all the work on hardcourt with his forehand, and I think it’s just too hard to hit through Zverev for a long period here. These are the matches where Zverev has to iron out his timing and get a little sharper if he wants to win, because Alcaraz is looking pretty sold (up 6-4 rn against Paul and hitting the ball fairly well most of the time). Zverev in 3. Darderi can run away with a set if he gets the lead against weaker players, but I think it’ll be hard to hold even if he gets ahead here.

Gea vs Van De Zandschulp :

Goatic is taking us on the scenic route on the way to his first Grand Slam quarterfinal, and I sort of do not appreciate it. Beating Bergs is never simple, but is always possible. Bergs was able to run Botic around and really frustrate him into errors, but his game just isn’t dominant enough (because his backhand is pedestrian) to shut anyone out. Botic was as far from comfortable as he can be, but at the end of close sets he was the player able to win short points more often and able to close out more efficiently.

Van De Zandschulp vs Gea is an interesting spot. Gea has just outlasted Zheng with some spirited play, and the hallmark of his game has been consistent hitting and stamina. He stays at the same level from the 2nd set til the end of the match, and as his opponents fatigue he’s really good at noting opportunities and playing a little selective offense. He has a great and repeatable forehand technique, and a pretty good serve. This next match is about his defense. Gea being consistent is good, but Botic wont have a problem with hitting the ball. He’ll have a problem with having to come up with shot after shot. Botic is at his best for a few games or in a single set, and a lot of the time he’s just hitting the court in between. His forehand technique can break down a little, and he can get handcuffed on the backhand. The opposite side of this is that he’s a much better server than his opponent here, and that can keep points short for him. I think Gea played a great match against Zheng, but Zheng is not as dangerous on offense as Botic. Slight edge to BVDZ here for me. Gea is a great player but he’s in a lower weight class as far as serving and ballstriking and I think Botic playing Bergs was good prep for this match. Botic in 4.

Khachanov vs Tien :

Tien is obviously a good player, but styles matter. I dug through Khachanov’s history, and I want to highlight his losses to Darderi, Munar, and Brooksby. Karen’s level is significantly higher than it was then, but struggles against players who grind away from the baseline seem to be possible. With Tien playing excellent ball, the first thing I want to see is how he deals with Khachanov’s ball. Khachanov hits harder off both wings than Tien, but isn’t as creative with his shots. If the weight of his shots bothers Tien, he’ll have a chance in this match. He’s serving great and has good experience managing the major format, but that all becomes somewhat moot if he’s having to play long rallies with Tien. Tien will just grind you out, and if you can’t jam him up or ace him, you basically lose. I think early on Khachanov can get things done here, but his resurgence does not make me think that he has the rally tolerance to win this match. I would have Mensik beating him, so it’s hard to not see Learner getting through also. Tien in another scenic route match. Tien in 4.

Cerundolo vs Blockx :

This has been one of the crazier events in recent tour history. Not in terms of the upsets, but in the way that they’ve happened. Fritz was coasting in his match against Cerundolo, and Francisco had really not been playing well in the last month or two. Fritz was dominating rallies, holding serve fairly easily, and what happened was pretty interesting. Sometimes when you’re dominating an opponent, you open up, but sometimes, you are thriving so much from their errors and impatience that you focus on not missing. You start to just move them and expect the errors, and what happens over a long match is that you stop being unpredictable and play them into form. They start getting comfortable in rallies, and you wind up “just making the court” on defense, expecting them to miss. At the start of the match where they think a certain level is required, sure they’ll miss and bail out of rallies early. If you’re not doing anything though, they’ll start to push. Cerundolo started to be the one applying pressure, and despite being a great player, Fritz is not really a great defender.

When Taylor started trying to turn it back up, it was a little too late. Cerundolo in a rhythm is a really tough out. He hits the ball with low net clearance and he hits hard off both wings. It’s hard to create once you’re in a neutral rally, and because Cerundolo is so strong and fast, he’s able to create good depth with his forehand from anywhere. It makes it tough to approach, and Fritz sort of never looked better for the last three sets. I will now proceed to doubt Cerundolo against, because I think he has a very similar test here. Blockx has a tremendous serve, a solid backhand, and a very aggressively struck forehand. The one thing that was clear during his match would Cobolli was that the man does not blink. He converted points over and over with sharp hitting and he stayed aggressive about his shot selection. There was never a “I just want this to be over” moment which is fairly common when leading a tennis match or pulling an upset. Cerundolo is going to be about even in rallies, but I expect Blockx to be able to hold serve easier, and I do not think he will fall victim to the slight error that Fritz made in the third. Blockx in 4.

Andreeva vs Potapova :

Early on in the Anisimova match I began experiencing dread. I don’t really mind any particular players winning and I think sometimes not having a favorite in a match makes it easier to enjoy good tennis, but when I write these articles, I get attached to my picks. What troubled me was in the second game, Potapova already made one thing clear. She was not going to try to do too much, and if Amanda converted, that was fine. Potapova got drawn wide, but rather than attempt anything special, she just hit the ball over the low part of the net and accepted the defensive role. Anisimova hit 3 balls in a row into the net, and that remained a theme here. Potapova hit the court and didn’t expose any angles or give Anisimova any higher balls to work with, and Anisimova made errors. It was a rough one, but kudos to Potapova for staying within herself and being willing to see what happens. For baseliner, she does serve fairly well at times and that helps when closing out matches. This next match I think will take a long time but go to Andreeva. Mirra is not going to give Anastasia the plethora of errors (46) that Anisimova did, and she’s not anxious to exit the points either. Andreeva also beat Potapova last year at this event in straights (6-1, 6-3) so I think this is a spot where Potapova is playing well but has found an opponent whose style and qualifications (being a wall herself and having slightly more offensive range) make this a very tough match. Andreeva in 2.

Jovic vs Gauff :

Gauff and Bucsa was competitive early, but Gauff has a bit too much rally tolerance for Cristina. I squinted a bit at Gauff to see if she’s feeling the effects of a cold she mentioned, but she seemed fine. Coco is at this point one of the best athletes that’s ever played on tour, so if there’s anyone who can navigate a slight malady, it’s her. This next matchup will be a good look at how the rest of the event will go for Gauff. Jovic and her played a great 3-set match in Rome on clay, and Iva has just played a marathon against Eala that will have her very efficient from the baseline.

Jovic hits hard off both wings, and while Gauff’s backhand is the best on tour, Jovic is good enough on that wing to trade. The problem for Jovic so far this event has been double faults, and I think this is likely to be the uncomfortable end factor here. Gauff is one of the best on tour at breaking serve, and when you’re down in the scoreline and struggling to land second serves, it can build the pressure. Gauff had a very close match with Badosa, and her forehand can break down a bit, but she’s been above average lately on serve and with her forehand, so I think any regression will still leave her at least as effective as Eala in terms of competing in baseline rallies with Jovic. Jovic’s main issue this season has been losing to players who hit bigger than her (physical strength), and I think they’re even on the forehand here and Gauff is a little bit stronger on average on the backhand. I’m expecting a very competitive stretch in both sets here, but I think barring an implosion Gauff wins this in two close sets.

Swiatek vs Zheng :

Zheng should likely not even be in this round, but here we are. As you probably know already, Zheng was down 5-0 in the third against Keys. There were a number of close points along the way, but once she got to 4-5 it almost felt sure that Keys would get broken again. It was a match of streaks for Keys, and she just seemed to struggle choosing between fast offense and grinding in the third after she got the lead. Even in the final games, there were a few balls where she went for something and then immediately flinched, almost as if she saw the opportunity but would rather have grinded given the circumstances. For now, it’s a much needed run for Zheng. She’s been struggling after returning from surgery, and this run will have her feeling some of the pressure off.

This next round is an interesting one. Against Bouzkova, Swiatek made a lot of errors. She struggled to hold serve. It made her look very vulnerable, but I think styles are a big factor. Bouzkova doesn’t hit huge, but she makes almost every ball. She is a wall, and Swiatek basically supplied all the offense during their match. Iga looked impatient at times, and just kept blasting away until she either converted or missed. I actually think it was an okay tactic, because if you cant back your own percentages with control of rallies then you should be fine going back to the drawing board and improving anyway. Swiatek wants this title, so she’s aiming high. If I’m a coach developing a player, I really do want to work with her on knowing when to reset the rally, but on the day it was fine. The big 3 and players like Barty were always very good at acknowledging when someone had gotten out of trouble, and that’s something Swiatek should adopt. Her athleticism is fine, and I feel like at times she tries to always come up with something to gain control. I would exchange that for a little bit of defense and patience at times, but she’s her and I’m me so I think she is aware of that option and has bigger plans.

Zheng is very solid in the rally, but not as fast as Bouzkova. She serves big which can apply pressure, but her serve has disappeared at times this week. I think Swiatek will get broken trying to play a very aggressive game, but I think her ability to create short angles off both wings will pay dividends here. She is also 4-0 against Zheng on hardcourt, so with her in decent form I think Swiatek can win again. Zheng’s resurgence is scary, but I do not think Swiatek will fumble in the manner that Keys did. Swiatek in 3.

Osaka vs Rybakina :

Mertens has given us some of the best matches in these big events, but just cannot seem to get her big moment. Since she just won a title, I’m sure she’s fine, but Osaka was there for the taking. Naomi is back to decent form pretty consistently, but her decision-making when things get tough is not always the best. She can get pretty results-oriented out there, so she’s not exactly an easy pick against Rybakina. Osaka is playing better tennis, but Rybakina is a lot calmer about her business. Rybakina was down in the first set against Starodubtseva, and she missed a number of shots. I genuinely expect her to lose this match if she plays that same level, but it’s hard to guarantee that players don’t find their best gear in a practice session, and great champions also do have the ability to elevate their focus against good opposition. Honestly this is all a way of me covering my butt in case Rybakina wakes up, because I have liked Osaka’s level more here. She also will have massive crowd support, and while Rybakina is calm, she can get a little discouraged. Osaka in 2.