2026 US Open Men's & Women's Singles Fourth Round - Day 1

Men’s Singles :

Medvedev vs Tiafoe :

Medvedev has a pretty dominant record against Tiafoe, and I’m interested to see how he unravels the current level Tiafoe is playing at. Frances displayed maybe the highest level of tennis anyone has so far last round. I didn’t actually dislike how Vacherot played, but Tiafoe had every answer. He’s crushing forehands, he’s covering the court exceptionally well, and his serve is firing. Tiafoe has the rare ability to dial up big T serves exactly when he needs them, and the pace change and variation is really effective. Since I was doubting Medvedev against Rinderknech, I am going to unceremoniously double up on that here. Tiafoe’s record against Medvedev is poor, but they are in two very different places in their career. This will be close as long as Daniil is serving well, and if that falls off I think Tiafoe becomes the favorite.

Rinderknech was really ineffective against Medvedev, but he didn’t exactly pressure him. He had a hard time landing first serves, and he made a number of errors in neutral rallies. There have been a lot of night and day performances in this event already on the men’s side, and this was one of them. The opponent matters, and Medvedev was steady, but Rinderknech really could not hang. Tiafoe’s fitness and forehand are his best weapons here. Medvedev’s height and reach let him put a lot of returns in play, and his deep return position helps also. Tiafoe’s kick serve might actually be his saving grace here as he’s able to move Daniil a bit even on second serves, but he will have to apply constant pressure and keep his percentages high. I think it is possible, and I think it is by far the most difficult opponent Medvedev has faced. Tiafoe in 5.

Michelsen vs Etcheverry :

Etcheverry was just about a game better than Navone in each set, and about a point better than him in all his service games. It was a steady grind where his power made the difference. This next match is doable, but Michelsen is playing his best tennis right now so it would take some physical letdown or implosion for Etcheverry to win. Merida did his usual box inquisiton while losing, and seemed to be limping a tiny bit. Neither of these helped, but Michelsen was hitting big constantly and really going after Merida’s second serves. These two have not met, but here Michelsen is peaking at his home slam and playing a version of Etcheverry who is only just starting to get his game back together this week. Michelsen in 3-4.

Shelton vs Tsitsipas :

Lehecka was cruising in round three against Tsitsipas, but really fell apart as the match progressed. Once he started missing Stefanos really took over, as his forehand and athleticism make him pretty tough to play passive against. Lehecka kept firing which meant errors, and if he backed off he had to run and trade on defense which isn’t really his strong suit at all. A lot of these big hitters don’t really end up having the softest hands on defense, and absorbing power just doesn’t happen. Tsitsipas’ run has included a win against Fils who is somewhat on Shelton’s level, but Ben is playing very well. Him being lefty makes the task against Tsitsipas simpler. He just has to loop his forehand cross and serve wide from the ad side and half the battle is won.

There’s nothing easy at this point in the draw, and Tsitsipas will be able to wear down Shelton’s backhand for some errors. He also is serving fairly well, but overall Shelton has been much better on hardcourt this season and the hometown crowd is behind him in a major way. Shapovalov also played some great tennis (until the end of sets he was leading) and Shelton weathering the storm is likely to have him a bit sharp here. Shelton in 4.

Paul vs Alcaraz :

Pre-tournament this is where I had Alcaraz losing, but he has been way better than I expected in his first event back. Wu and Faria have had their moments, but Alcaraz has never really looked to be in trouble. The question for me here is how soon he goes into lockdown mode. Alcaraz’s shot selection is much different at 3-3 in the first than it is down a set or in a 4th or 5th set. He plays for the crowd and he goes for whatever he thinks will work or look nice, but this can lead him to dump sets. The question I have is, when he moves away from this because Paul is playing solid, will he still be coughing up errors? If he’s able to grind, I think he wins here in 4. Alcaraz has beaten Tommy the last 5 times, and he lost their first two meetings so it has been a prominent reversal.

Alcaraz’s level is only a cause for scrutiny because he’s Alcaraz. If he was a brand new player and was playing the way he is, I would still actually have him sitting as a very strong threat to beat Paul, so if there are higher levels left in the tank I like Alcaraz’s side. That’s not saying much, but this is the big test for him. If he wins this, he can challenge for the title. Alcaraz in 4. I think Tommy can compete with him, but Alcaraz is a puppy and the challenge seems to interest him and promote him to a new level in matches.

Women’s Singles :

Townsend vs Sabalenka :

I don’t think anyone is too excited about playing Townsend on hardcourt. She has the ability to hit serves that actually cannot be returned, and her forehand creates depth and pace that force you way out of position. I’ve noticed that while Townsend doesn’t hit clean winners on her forehand, her opponents regularly wind up deep in the court and outside the doubles lines on the next ball. She also is known for coming to net, so even when her opponent gets to a ball in time, they seem to have to try to manufacture length. Shnaider played a very good second and third set against Taylor, but the entire time it felt like the match was on Townsend’s racquet. My point is that Townsend’s offense really doesn’t have an off-switch, and her shots and serves are likely to be effective against Sabalenka.

Aryna has yet to drop a set, but she hasn’t been her automatic self this season. There have been random losses and so a difficult opponent like Townsend is a cause for peering. Good Sabalenka can just win this in 2-3, and it will always seem like a foregone conclusion. Her serving is good enough and her ballstriking is heavier than most anyone on tour. Bad Sabalenka is always lurking though, and losing confidence can cause her to spray errors. Errors compound for her, because her biggest leak is that when she’s missing she becomes very invested in the story of the struggle and gets involved with her box. It’s almost like she feels pressure from them, and it hurts her to miss and let them down. Sabalenka is supposed to win this in two, but similar to last match I think it is possible for Townsend to start off very hot in the first set. Sabalenka in 2.

Kostyuk vs Noskova :

The Noskova Li match was a really rough watch, or an amazing one. Both players hit great serves and played tremendous offense at times, but they both also struggled in big moments, and Li stepped up in a big way in the second only to struggle to hit the court in the third. Tennis must be very difficult sometimes, because some players whose trouble is inconsistency and errors don’t seem to be able to iron that out. For now, we get a rematch of a Wimbledon match. In that match, Kostyuk was a bit of a favorite, and Noskova’s serving completely changed that outcome. Linda is serving well here again, and Alexandrova did go up a break in the second against Kostyuk. I think this result might flip. Noskova is not as automatic here on offense, and while she’s serving great, it’s possible for Kostyuk to grind more on defense in these conditions. This match is also at noon, and I think Marta’s fitness is a bit better than Noskovas. Kostyuk in 3.

Pegula vs Cirstea :

Might eat it here, but Pegula looked very rough against Fernandez. Her tennis was solid when she hit the ball, but Fernandez fell apart in the third, and Pegula did not look healthy. She looked to be struggling with the heat and with a few players experiencing illness recently, it led me to think she might not be 100% going forward. When she had to make gets wide, she really looked hampered. Maybe it’s something that can be solved with fluids, but I think it’s a bad time to be vulnerable on defense. Cirstea is playing some of the best ball she ever has, and she’s able to generate good power off both wings. More importantly, she takes the ball cross-court and down the line pretty evenly, and that’ll be a tough ask if Pegula isn’t moving great again. Their Cincinnati match went to 3, and I think Cirstea gets through here. If Pegula is physically fine, it still may go to a third because she does have some minor lapses in hitting. Cirstea in 3.

Kalinskaya vs Navarro :

Muchova crashing out was one of the more puzzling events in a strange day, but Navarro does have a world class tennis level in her somewhere, so even in half a slump she’s still a dangerous opponent. Two rounds in a row she basically turned the match into a backhand exchange and it worked perfectly. McNally couldn’t quite hang, and Muchova sort of fell apart. She went away from the backhand slice as the match progressed, and her two-hander looked like she wasn’t comfortable and was focusing on trying to produce the right technique. This can make for good contact, but it also makes you very predictable on that wing. Your opponent can see you.

While Navarro was resurrecting her season, Kalinskaya was frustrating Svitolina in a massive way. Kalinskaya can phone in her effort at times or show up injured, but with control she’s able to play some excellent tennis. One of the best examples of this was the Australian Open this year. Swiatek absolutely smoked her in the first set, but played a bit passive in set two. Kalinskaya returned the smoke, and while she lost, it shows that her accuracy and power are easily repeatable off both wings. Svitolina left the ball short and did her usual scrambling, and even though it took 3-4 good shots to score, Kalinskaya scored. By the third Svitolina got a bit rushed on her shots, and started to miss some routine balls and choose the occasional wrong shot. It was a good win for Kalinskaya, and she’s 2-0 against Navarro so this is a good spot for her. Kalinskaya’s backhand is good enough to deal with Emma’s approach, and I think this is how she’ll be able to stop Navarro’s run. Kalinskaya in 3. I don’t think she digs hard enough or focuses at a level that will let her stop Emma completely, but I think Navarro can get a little bit straightforward with her shot selection and Anna should be able to pick her spots and survive her defensive duties.