2026 US Open Men's & Women's Singles First Round - Full Draw
Men’s Singles :
Zverev vs Sonego :
Zverev has finally gotten the major title he has always wanted, and almost immediately there is a chance to add number 2. With Sinner out and Alcaraz in questionable form, Zverev is not just the 1st or 2nd option to win this title, he’s also getting to fly somewhat under the radar since Alcaraz is still the big name. Running just behind him are Djokovic and Medvedev and Fritz, who are all capable of beating him but have different reasons for why they might not. For Djokovic, stamina is the big question. For Medvedev, desire and composure is the issue. For Fritz, he just hasn’t put himself in position to win a major before, so while I think he’s a more consistent performer than the tier just behind him, I don’t think it’s a bad spot for Zverev at all.
Shortly behind them are the Shelton/FAA/Mensik/Jodar/Fils/Paul/Tiafoe grouping (I’m sure I’m leaving someone out). All capable players, but they haven’t done it before and they all have slight question marks about their game at this stage. Shelton’s backhand has kept him from beating the top 2-3 guys in a major. Felix’s backhand and consistency make things very tough for him against the top tier. Mensik has a slight forehand glitch and can have stamina issues. Jodar is young still so while he has the tennis IQ and skill, winning a major would be an extremely incredible task. Paul has had random abdominal issues and can shoot himself out of sets, and Tiafoe might be the player in the group capable of elevating their game to the highest level right now for a single match, but he also tends to play to the level of his opponent which means a tricky path. In short, Zverev has a good chance at this. Hardcourt is not his best surface, but sometimes seeing the ball go through the hoop early can prepare you to win.
Sonego is starting to play better, but it’s a bad matchup against Zverev. Alex tends to sit in the crosscourt backhand exchanges, and Sonego cannot survive these. Zverev in 3. He did smash a racquet in practice so I don’t expect him to feel that comfortable, but the first few rounds for him are very safe.
Halys vs Diaz Acosta :
Diaz Acosta is a solid player and a great defender, but he’s just been playing clay this whole time. Granted he just won a Challenger, but this is a much different surface and one Halys has been active on. Halys in 4.
Dimitrov vs Popyrin :
Dimitrov playing qualifying was interesting, and he got a lucky walkover in the final round against Virtanen. He’ll be warmed up and well rested for this, and Popyrin has been struggling mightily to find his game this season at times. Popyrin also withdrew from his last match against Gaston so I’m having a hard time seeing him win here. Dimitrov in 3-4.
Hanfmann vs Tabilo :
I don’t see either player really dominating this match. Hanfmann has a huge serve (and won their previous meeting) but his lateral movement is slow for the tour. His power should work early since Tabilo can have trouble with his backhand length at the start of a match, but Tabilo’s serve is very effective and Hanfmann’s backhand is not the greatest on defense. This makes Tabilo being a lefty a good situation. Tabilo in 5 is my guess, and since this will come down to who wins tiebreakers there are not really any locks.
Darderi vs Wendelken :
Wendelken vs Gaubus was probably the most exciting match of the qualifiers on the men’s side, and the one thing I was really impressed by was Wendelken’s ability to rip forehand from anywhere. That offense will be essential against Darderi, who is one of the trickier opponents on tour to hit through. The hardcourt game has not been good for Luciano at all, but he still has a decent serve and an effective forehand. Wendelken looked good in qualifying, but Darderi feels like a step up from Gaubus. Darder in 4.
Svrcina vs Royer :
Good qualifying run for Svrcina. McDonald was dominating things with his forehand in the finals but once Dalibor found his backhand it was over. When I was a child I opened my math textbook and someone had removed all the pages and just written “Dalibor is inevitable” inside. I failed that class, but I learned a valuable lesson. This is a tricky match but a good opportunity for both. I would like Svrcina’s side, but Royer did one of the best things in tennis. He dropped down to the Challenger level to get more reps before a big tournament. It worked out, because he won the title in Kingston. This gets tricky because Svrcina won their two previous matches, but they were both on clay where it’s a lot harder for Royer to serve his way through. I would expect this to be very close, and for Svrcina to just outlast Royer in 5. Royer’s offense vs Svrcina’s defense basically, and since Dalibor is short his serve is going to make him take the long road.
Sweeny vs Moutet :
Nice draw for both. Moutet is a headcase but he has played the better level of tennis recently and Sweeny wins with his speed and stamina. Moutet is fine playing long rallies and has the more varied and bigger offense here. Moutet in 3-4.
Fery vs Musetti :
Arthur Fery has a very complete game, and great composure. This is the reason behind his heroic comebacks, but I find that while he does everything well, he doesn’t do anything great. This allows his opponents to play, and so while he belongs on tour, I don’t see him with many easy matchups. Musetti has been playing slightly better every week during the NA swing, and I think Fery will have a hard time hitting through him even with control. Musetti has settled into a nice gatekeeper spot on hardcourt, so I expect him to win a few rounds and then lose to Zverev. Musetti in 3.
Jodar vs Kokkinakis :
Kokkinakis can score on just about anyone, but I think even if he redlines at the beginning he will get reeled in. Jodar is a pretty clear top 5 prospect at this point, and with Sinner and Alcaraz showing signs of being human he has some time to work his way into contention. His serve isn’t huge but he’s able to locate it well on big points, and his shot selection (like most Spanish Federation players) is very intelligent. Jodar in 3-4.
Maroszan vs Zheng :
Maroszan could easily lose this, but Zheng will have to be on offense early and often. Maroszan and Duckworth had a close match this past week, and the one thing that cost Maroszan is his insistence on returning the ball with interest. When players hit a deep shot, he almost always half volleys it. Whenever he’s rushed, he sends the ball long. There isn’t really an adjustment on a break point or set point, and that means Zheng has a window of opportunity. Zheng generally loses to players who dominate the backhand exchanges, but he’s been improving that wing recently. Zheng in 4.
Svajda vs Altmaier :
Svajda is the slight favorite in this one according to the books, but Altmaier is 2-0 against him. Altmaier also has won a few matches recently, and Svajda has lost 4 of his last 5. When Zach plays well, it’s because he’s serving well. His results at majors have been better than elsewhere, but this is a very tricky spot. Altmaier in 5. I think he is just a bit better at tennis even if he’s not really the greatest on hardcourt, and it’s hard to ignore Svajda’s slump.
Cerundolo J.M. vs Ruud :
Ruud had back issues in practice, and I strongly suspect he is just going through the motions here. If he were healthy he’d probably be able to grind past Cerundolo, but Juan has been grinding away and has improved his serving a great deal. I think his 3 set loss to Buse looks a lot better now that Buse has won the title also. Cerundolo in 4 or via withdrawal.
Bergs vs Taberner :
Taberner is a throwback name. He can be solid, but Bergs should win in straights.
De Jong vs Passaro :
Passaro was down early against Mochizuki but he started to really hit his forehand well and that was the end of the match. The amount of spin and wobble he’s getting on the ball right now looks very annoying, and De Jong hasn’t been playing his best the past month. Passaro in 3-4.
Choinski vs Van De Zandschulp :
Botic is playing very well lately. This is a matchup between two big servers who don’t move well, and Botic is a good bit quicker and more versatile on defense. He’s also defending incredibly well to his forehand side, so the only way I see him losing this is if his backhand braks down completely. BVDZ in 4.
Guerrieri vs De Minaur :
ADM is playing some decent tennis lately, so he is supposed to win this comfortably. Guerrieri was slated to lose all his matches so far this event though, and that didn’t stop him. He’s a solid lefty baseliner with good speed, so while I think ADM will wear down his backhand, the rallies should be long and entertaining. ADM in 3-4. Alex hasn’t been his automatic self this season, so I’m not really expecting a ton.
Auger-Aliassime vs Hijikata :
FAA needs to lock in right nowwwwwwww. This is a great opportunity for him if he can find his best serving because even though he isn’t going to be the favorite in the semifinals or finals, he’s likely going to be facing someone who really really wants to win, and him playing well would be frustrating for them. Hijikata is a simple first round, and if he wants to win this event, he needs to put this away in 3. Start strong, be clinical, get to the second week fresh.
Burruchaga vs Khachanov :
Khachanov is having a dismal hardcourt swing so far, but he should still win this. I don’t think it will be close for two reasons. One, Khachanov just lost to Tomic and Kovacevic. Two, Burruchaga plays every single point as hard as he can. Khachanov’s serve should get him the match, but I am guessing he gets rolled in at least one set. Khachanov in 4.
Bonzi vs Molcan :
Molcan has been grinding on clay, so Bonzi’s run in Winston-Salem (Majchrzak, Hijikata, Botic) looks good enough here. He’s also fairly good at navigating the 3/5 structure, so Molcan’s grinding style might backfire if this goes deep. If Molcan had been playing hardcourt I’d like his chances, but it appears he may be less than serious about his chances here. Bonzi in 4-5.
Buse vs Giron :
Buse just picked up the title in Winston-Salem, so despite the fatigue concerns I think he can win this. His hardcourt game isn’t as well planned as Giron’s (big serve/big forehand), but Buse’s main approach to the game is to hit inside out forehands, and Giron’s backhand is a big target. Unless he’s completely exhausted or withdraws, Buse in 4.
Mensik vs Mochizuki :
Mochigoat has arrived in the main draw. They tried to defeat him in qualifying, but he cannot be defeated, even when he is defeated. Shinato should do well here since Mensik is a slow starter, but Passaro’s power was able to make him miss, and Mensik adds a huge serve and a better backhand to the same forehand ability. Mensik in 3-4.
Rodionov vs Mpetshi Perricard :
June was the last time GMP won a match on tour, so it’s not outlandish to think that Rodionov’s powerful offense is enough for him to get through here. I don’t see either player doing great in their opponents service games, but Rodionov is probably a little more consistent from the baseline since he came through qualifying. Rodionov in 4-5.
Vallejo vs Monfils :
It is tough to gauge how much Monfils wants to win at this point. He can still play great tennis, but he gets tired, he plays for the crowd more than he used to, and he has also been spotted giving matches to worthy opponents. I think he has sort of leaned into doing good as he leaves the tour, and creating a highlight moment for a nice opponent seems like something he enjoys. This makes it tough to predict his matches. He can beat Vallejo, but I don’t know if he will. Certainly Vallejo doesn’t sit in the Hijikata/Sweeny camp where he’s a nice story, but working for Vallejo is the fact that he’s playing better ball than them. He serves decent, he rallies well, and he is tenacious. I think Monfils wins a set or two because he wants to, but Vallejo eventually wins on stamina. Vallejo in 5.
Borges vs Tien :
I like Tien here. He’s 2-0 against Borges, and has yet to drop a set. He beat him in the Australian Open this year, and him being a lefty makes Borges’ backhand a slight liability. Tien also hits with more shape while Borges hits a flat ball, so I think in pressure rallies he can hit harder with fewer errors. The courts are good for Nuno’s style, but I’m not really seeing a way for him to create distance or win short points against Tien. Tien in 4 close sets.
Fritz vs Blanch :
Good opener for Fritz. Darwin Blanch is excellent, but I think he will shoot himself out of this match a bit. Fritz in 3.
Bellucci vs Piros :
Piros was basically gone against O’Connell when Chris hurt his ankle and had to withdraw, so this is a very lucky situation for him. Even luckier, he plays a guy who has been losing a ton of matches. On a given point, Bellucci is in the top 30 levels. Overall though, he’s been just a tiny bit off for long periods of time. Missing rally balls is poison on tour, so Piros needs to grind here. I don’t see him as hitting the ball hard enough to really break down Bellucci’s defenses, but if he can make this a long match he might win on %s. Bellucci in 3 or Piros in 5.
Ugo Carabelli vs Struff :
Struff should serve well enough here to win. CUC has had a good season but he’s been slowing down in this hardcourt swing and I don’t love his returning. Struff in 4, but of course the caveat is that Struff makes poor decisions and rushes everything.
Cerundolo F. vs Misolic :
If Cerundolo feels like playing, he can win. Misolic has not played since February, so this very much feels like a check to cover the winter expenses and that we’ll see him start winning again in the winter. Cerundolo in 3.
Blockx vs Barrios Vera :
Classy serving battle here. Blockx is much more solid in the rallies and serves a bit bigger. He’s had injury issues, but should win in 3-4.
Shang vs Trungelliti :
I have to issue a correction. I had mentioned in the Wimbledon article that Trungelliti was mixed up in a match-fixing scandal. It should be noted that he was the one who reported this issue, not the one who was perpetrating it all. Apologies to the Trungelliti family and anyone who was misled by my statement.
Shang has returned from some injury issues and is playing decent ball. The Sonego loss means he could easily lose this match also, but he’s slightly better on this surface than Marco, and should be able to grind out a win. Trungelliti serves better, but I see him dropping sets on hardcourt quite often due to his aggressive style, and I think Shang’s speed will allow him to pick Marco off at net and earn some errors. Shang in 5.
Basavareddy vs Schoolkate :
Nishesh has one of the wider ranges of ceiling to floor on tour, but he was excellent in qualifying. He also served well which is not always the case for him. He got the qualifer vs qualifer spot which is fortuitous for him, and his opponent Schoolkate has been stuck off tour for a while and isn’t playing his best. Basavareddy should be able to utilize his aggressive returning and speed to make inroads here, and I think his service level right now is just good enough to close out. Basavareddy in 4 and Schoolkate somehow winning the 3rd.
Cobolli vs Comesana :
Comesana has been finding his form slowly, but this is a huge ask. I left Cobollo of my list of third tier favorites, and that was probably a big mistake. He has a great forehand and has proven his ability to dial up big serves in big moments. Flavio is a baller and it is likely that he makes a good run here. Cobolli in 3.
Medvedev vs Gaston :
Medvedev lost to Van De Zandschulp in Montreal, but he didn’t seem to care. Medvedev lost to Nakashime in Cincinnati, but he only half seemed to care. Medvedev lost to Damm in Winstom-Salem, and he definitely didn’t care. Medvedev has been burnt out for most of this year, and while he still throws a tantrum and gets frustrated, it feels very much like he’s just going through the motions. The players on tour who are defensive walls tend to have a hard time keeping that going their entire career (Norrie/ADM are good examples of this), and when they’re making errors, not fully committed, or not fully healthy they really can struggle to find wins. Add in that they’re usually big names to snag, and things get rough. Daniil’s last big slump on tour coincided with his shoulder being a bit too sore to really crank out serves, and that seems to be the case recently. His game is still there, but if he’s not scoring quickly on serve then his grinding style really starts to build pressure on him rather than his opponents.
In Montreal, he was completely unable to escape rallies with Van De Zandschulp. Botic was pushing in a lot of rallies, and Medvedev looked stressed out and hesitant. When he finally went for winners, he snatched at the shots and dragged them wide. In short, he’s as beatable as he’s ever been, so this is a match worth scrutinizing. When someone is vulnerable, they do still get to play tennis, and Daniil has shown that he cares enough to grind at the majors so he’s still a deserved favorite against Gaston. Hugo had a good run through qualifying, but Colton Smith was the toughest match he had. He doesn’t really have the power on his groundstrokes to break down Medvedev, and being lefty doesn’t matter as much against Daniil since his backhand is his preferred wing. Gaston’s game is predicated on dropshot/lob combinations, and while Medvedev is poor at net, he does still move fairly well. I have also seen him get visibly annoyed by opponents who spam dropshots, and this can almost help him over the course of a long match because it grants him a little focus.
Every Medvedev match here will be a test, but he should win this. He should recognize that with Alcaraz rusty and Sinner absent, there is a good chance for him to make a deep run, but it still will take a complete reversal of his current trend and that’s tough to do automatically. Medvedev in 4 is what I sort of expect. Gaston is playing well and Medvedev has responded to break deficits by getting frustrated and trying to end the set quickly, so I think it’s entirely possible that he’ll donate one. If he wins in straights that’s actually a great sign.
Gorzny vs Collignon :
Gorzny is a promising player from the US and he’s beaten Borna Gojo and Marc Polmans recently which indicate he’s ready to compete at the Challenger level. This is probably too much of an ask for him, but Collignon does struggle a bit on fast hardcourts and the US Open courts have looked a bit tricky this week. Collignon doesn’t move great and prefers clay, but he does still have a huge serve and very clean groundstrokes when he has time. I think the weight of shot over the course of a long match will give Gorzny a lot of trouble. Collignon in 3.
Munar vs Atmane :
I’m gonna set the over / under for code violations here at 2. Munar has a poor attitude and really doesn’t possess the power or serving to impose himself in the North American swing. He works hard and he’ll push Atmane, but he’s been inactive and he’s been losing. Atmane can crash out and smash racquets, but he has some very solid wins this season (Draper/Khachanov/Etcheverry recently). If those seem unique choices to highlight, I picked those not because they’re recent but because they’re rusty players. Atmane is facing another guy who’s solid but not at his best, and that’s where he’s thrived lately. Munar’s ability to extend rallies and his commitment to hitting the court will allow Atmane to implode, but Terence has shown himself to be a very skilled shotmaker and his percentages should get him through here. Atmane in 4-5.
Shimabukuro vs Rinderknech :
This matchup gives Shimabukuro a boost, but there are some things I’m worried about. Shimabukuro has a very aggressive offense, and Rinderknech doesn’t move well. I think he’ll be able to hold serve often which helps him a bit. The trouble I see is that Rinderknech is a bit of a servebot, but he also tends to play a half-consistent style. Even though he plays aggressively and comes to net often, he doesn’t just bail out of rallies when he’s on defense. I worry he’ll be able to rush Shimabukuro on most second serve returns and Sho can get a little erratic when you take time away. Neither player is playing that poorly recently, but both have struggled in winnable spots. I think Rinderknech wins 3-4 very close sets.
Vacherot vs Kovacevic :
Kovacevic does dress like Ash Ketchum, but he doesn’t seem to win at the end of every episode. Alex has a really enjoyable game to watch with the classic one-hand backhand and a pretty good serve, but his returning is just not automatic and he is often the less consistent player in neutral rallies in a long match. Working for him here is Vacherot’s somewhat surprising slump. After a breakout 2025 and a great early season in Australia, he had a very solid clay swing with a semifinals performance in his home event in Monte Carlo. Recently he’s been struggling to recover from a left foot stress fracture that he received in Madrid, and it seems like he isn’t quite back to form. This makes this a must-win for Kovacevic, but a healthy Vacherot can basically serve even with Kova. It’s pretty standard here to expect Kovacevic to win until Vacherot proves otherwise, but Kovacevic’s returning is poor enough that I don’t see him creating huge distance.
Since this is a major, it is very possible that players are entering just to pick up a check. It all adds up to Kovacevic in 4, but I would look at Vacherot’s early play from the baseline to see how long this will last.
Majchrzak vs Medjedovic :
Spellcheck is crashing out on me right now, but this is an interesting matchup. Neither player has won a match in their last two events, and while Medjedovic is better, the humidity and heat at the US Open is significant. I’m not sure that Medjedovic is going to be able to grind it out here and Majchrzak has been way more active, opting to go to Washington where he beat Tommy Paul. Majchrzak in 5. I do think Medjedovic can win the early exchanges because he has significant power and a better serve, but this is not an event I expect him to thrive in.
Vukic vs Sakamoto :
I had the pleasure of sitting in the stadium for Sakamoto vs Nishikori, and it was awesome. Nishikori came in playing incredibly well, and was visibly second best throughout this match. Sakamoto’s serve is a cannon, and he hit winners during the rally that made the growd gasp. I was too busy eating $7 cookies to gasp, but it was very impressive. The only worry I had about Sakamoto heading into the draw was him playing a super pusher like Norrie or Navone, because his backhand rally tolerance doesn’t really stand up to the test. This draw is fine though. Vukic is a big server with a good forehand, but he has only played at his peak twice this year so I expect Sakamoto to be much sharper, and Vukic to have an awfully difficult time returning serve. Sakamoto in 3-4.
Damm vs Tiafoe :
Tiafoe played an epic match in the US Open against Alcaraz in 2022 and this was where he announced himself to mainstream tennis. That felt like his best chance to snag a major, but this event actually is. Tiafoe worked on his fitness over the offseason and it has given him the ability to grind in long matches. His combination of slightly pushy tennis and alternation of big serves and kick serves in a third has made him a very difficult opponent, and with the humid weather here this tournament is likely to be about grinding. This is a tough start because Damm has a big enough serve to get deep in sets, and because Tiafoe is really his most snaggable in the first rounds. He can hit the ball a little too big early in tournaments and the pace the game is played at in the opening round often makes it difficult to avoid errors. The draw won’t get easier with Sakamoto in the next round, but I think Tiafoe’s heavy forehand will wear down Damm’s backhand over the course of this match. Tiafoe in 4. Damm is very dangerous but he’s blinked in some big moments and I don’t think him being a lefty is a huge boost against Tiafoe since he moves so well to the backhand side and hits such a heavy topspin forehand cross.
Nakashima vs Baez :
Nakashima is the matchup nightmare for these baseliners. He has servebot stats, but plays consistent/conservative enough in rallies that he doesn’t really feel pressured by players like Baez who are looking to outlast their opponent. Nakashima vs servebots and vs defensive baseliners is a matchup I always like for him. Nakashima in 3.
Michelsen vs Cina :
Last year I watched Cina lose a crushing 3rd set to Federico Agustin Gómez, and this year he reversed that result. It’s a solid result for him (beating Bu in 3), and he certainly has the type of game you can expect big things from. There’s nothing flashy, but he reminds me a little bit of Fritz in the sense that his service motion and swings seem so repeatable. He has a solid serve and a smooth forehand and I think he’ll need to be on point here. The way to beat Michelsen is to keep him moving. First serves aren’t going to be dealt with, but if Cina’s % drops Michelsen’s power is likely to be a problem and I think he will be a bit more consistent in the backhand exchanges. Michelsen in 4.
Merida Aguilar vs Fucsovics :
Merida Aguilar had one of the best July/August stretches anyone really can. He made the quarterfinals of Montreal, and managed to win 2 rounds in Cincinnati also. His game is hyper-aggressive and his shotmaking is incredible. In his weight class, he is one of the best player. What was exposed against Tien was that his rally tolerance only lasts as long as the ball goes through the hoop. Once he starts to miss, he bails out of rallies earlier and earlier, and tends to let his box have it. He does still play the match, but it seems more for the crowd at that point. This round he should be sharper than Marton Fucsovics who is 0-2 so far in North America, but it’ll be interesting in his next rounds to see how he handles players who can seriously defend. I would put Fucsovics in that category, but Merida is fine with time and control. It’s when players like Tien make him run lateral sprint drills that he starts to emotionally check out. Merida in 3.
Cilic vs Rublev :
Cilic has become Wawrinka for me. He’s able to win the first set, but as he starts to fade in the second it has that dreaded “oh, my favorite player is a lil old” feeling. He tends to alternate between aggression and safe play at that point, and neither are really his thing. He has always been very consistent and committed to moving his opponent regardless of the situation, and as his interest in sprinting leaves during matches it seems that he sort of just wants things to be over. The choice of when to go safe and when to go big is really tough, and I think compounding this is his opponents clocking his level falling off. Nobody misses the court when they think you might be tired, so all the safe play in the world doesn’t help. Additionally, every error gives them hope, so going for broke doesn’t work. What is the solution? Just become younger. With Dr Blurry’s new Health Goop, you can grow a new anything. Old arm? Grow a new one. Tired leg? Grow two more! The secret ingredient is slime I found in my yard. Call now, supplies are running out (only one bucket of slime remains).
Rublev is really struggling this season, but he should eventually get this done. His mental struggles have never really subsided, and at this point I think it is time to focus more on that than anything else since these are the last few years of his career. He should enjoy them. Rublev in 4. Cilic can still ball, but I think once he loses his first set he will have a hard time reversing course.
Etcheverry vs Kopriva :
Not an easy matchup here, and both will be happy with their draw. Etcheverry has way more success on hardcourts, but not much success this season. Oddly, I feel he’s having a tough year but he’s 23-21 on tour this year. 5-8 on hardcourt isn’t great, but I suppose he is slightly favored against Kopriva. Kopriva’s backhand is much more solid, but this would be half a surprise if he won. Etcheverry in 4.
Fearnley vs Landaluce :
Did Fearnley know he was in the draw? Two lucky loser spots opened up in the men’s draw, and Fearnley was on serve in the third set of qualifying finals. These situations are always a little suspicious for me, because in the past players have opted to lose and take the better draw and help out their friends, and other players have dropped out at certain times to benefit players. I’m not overly suspicious here because the lucky loser is based off a random draw (2 highest ranked players if there’s one spot before the end of qualifying, 3 highest if there are two spots, etc), but Fearnley is being rated highly by sportsbooks here and I don’t quite agree. Rodionov has a big serve and a powerful forehand, but Landaluce is a cut above him. Martin has two rough losses recently to Bellucci and Tirante, but I can forgive the second since Tirante is playing the best tennis of his life.
Fearnley’s game is all about strong pace down the line and aggressive shotmaking. I don’t think he’s the most consistent players, but when he’s hitting the court he’s capable of a top 50 level. It’s lazy, but I think Landaluce is a bit more consistent than him. Landaluce in 4-5. I’m prepared to eat it here, but I think the Fearnley hype has only delivered half the time and Landaluce’s slump doesn’t tend to dip quite as low.
Wawrinka vs Berrettini :
There was a bit of noise about Kypson getting a wildcard spot over Wawrinka, but it seems he is in now after Kypson injured his knee. It’s fair for Wawrinka to get a spot, and I don’t really have a great answer to the debate about aging wildcards. It has been pretty clear for over a season now that Wawrinka is not going to win more than 1 round per event, but he still is one of the best shotmakers on tour and his skill is extremely enjoyable to watch. The system of having a small group of people decide to just randomly award a spot to someone is pretty much flawed from the start, and I think part of the issue with the tour having depth is that there are a lot of good options. I can point to 50 guys in the 100-200 range who would play their butts off if they got on tour. There are 20-30 WTA juniors right now who could snag a pro if they got a chance. There are probably 20 veteran names who could pack the stands right now if they decided to hop into a 250. The qualifier today had seats at every match, but Nishikori’s match had a line to get in that took 20 minutes to clear. The tournament is trying to sell tickets, and tennis isn’t mainstream enough for people to be excited about a lot of the non-veteran wildcards. For every Jodar there’s a Michael Antonius who no on has seen but maybe they should. No matter what they do, someone will be upset. Venus Williams and Andy Murray have kinda kept this conversation at the forefront, and despite this being a somewhat similar spot, I want Wawrinka in the draw. If you watch this match, you will be treated to top tier offense and a great display of skill and shotmaking from both. I think they’re very much even for the first two hours, and then I want to say Berrettini pulls away but he hasn’t exactly been a picture of health and fitness for the last season or two. Berrettini in 4-5.
Navone vs Djokovic :
If ever there was a perfect time to witness the #25 run, this is it. The US Open being so wide open on the men’s side really lends itself to the idea that Djokovic can win, and since his recent losses at majors have mostly been in competitive matches against Sinner and Alcaraz, it’s clear that he can still summon his best level. Working against him is the weather in NY. The heat and humidity is not the conditions where you’d expect a player who’s been losing stamina contests to thrive, but Novak is still much better than most of his opposition. Matches like this won’t help, but this little section of the draw is one he should navigate. Navone isn’t great on hardcourt, but he will make Djokovic supply all the offense. Since Djokovic starts off fairly slow in his first rounds, I would expect him to need to expend a good bit of energy to win this. Djokovic in 4 actually sounds wrong because I think he’s a game or two better in every set, but humid conditions and a player who’s likely looking to avoid redlining in an early round could make for a slow and steady grind rather than a dominant performance.
Shelton vs Griekspoor :
Shelton looked like the Berrettini of his era for a while. His play was tremendous, but he’d come up just short against the big 3 type players. His serving and shotmaking were top tier, and he had been steadily improving his backhand. The best thing about his game seemed to be his ability to step up when he needed to, and this was largely about his serving. Normally, this would be a huge opportunity for him. Last year though, things sort of took a turn. Shelton revealed that he had a little shoulder soreness, and questions about how long he’d be able to uncork huge serves arose. Shelton did just win Montreal so this will sound strange, but he has sort of exited the tier for me where he’s automatically able to beat all opposition by dialing up more pace. For me right now he’s in the second tier, but if he starts cooking this will be a great situation for him.
Griekspoor managed to win some games in Montreal, but his play has struggled this season. In a serving battle, Shelton is a bit more consistent and his baseline game can be hyper-aggressive but his confidence and rally tolerance are better as well. Shelton in 3-4. The loss to Faria in Cincinnati can be ignored after his title run, but first rounds are always difficult.
Dzumhur vs Hurkacz :
Dzumhur seems like an entirely different person from week to week, and the only consistent thing in his game is that he demands the same ball for the next point anytime he scores. This is an interesting match just because of the David / Goliatch aspect, but Hurkacz won the Challenger in Cancun and Dzumhur is unlikely to hold serve often enough to be a huge threat here. Hurkacz’ footspeed means Dzumhur can score, but it would take an injury for Hurkacz to lose here. Hurkacz in 3-4.
Kecmanovic vs Shapovalov :
Whoa. The h2h here is 7-0 for Shapo. 5 of these have been deciding sets, but this is a rivalry that has been going Denis’ way for a very long time. I would actually guess that Kecmanovic is able to grind long enough to profit from Shapo’s errors and impatience, but I guess not. Shapo in 4. Kecmanovic hasn’t been playing well enough at all to justify cancelling the rivalry, and Denis just turned in a nice performance against Jodar (who is in the top ten favorites to win this event).
Norrie vs Van Assche :
If you like ten minute service games, this is the match for you. Their last three matches have all gone to the deciding set, and they’re actually fairly similar players. LVA has a really flat solid backhand, and a whippy forehand. He can start slow, but once he locks into a level from the baseline he is a wall and tends to win marathon matches. Norrie is basically the same, but lefty. There isn’t a quick path for either here, but I do think Norrie has a slightly more powerful serve, and he’s been showing isolated displays of his old level. I’m not expecting Norrie to get back to the top of the tour, but he has indicated in press that he is, and that desire is essential to back a player who needs focus and hustle to get the job done. Norrie in 4-5.
Carreño-Busta vs Lehecka :
PCB retired from his last match so this is not really knowable. Lehecka played well in the last few events, and when he’s hitting the court he’s decent. Lehecka in 3-4.
Samuel vs Machac :
Machac is 0-2 after returning from injury, and Samuel just had a great run in qualifying where he needed a third set to win each match. That’s not really inspiring stuff, but it means his stamina and level enters at a slightly higher tier than Machac has displayed. Healthy Machac is a top 20 player, but he hasn’t been healthy. Samuel in 4.
Harris L vs Kennedy :
Lloyd Harris absolutely befuddled Llamas Ruiz in the final round of qualifying. His serve was annoying, and his topspin made Ruiz miss over and over. If you were in the stands, you might have gotten to keep a ball or two. Kennedy is still a junior prospect so he won’t win here, but he has wins against Uchida and Broady recently so the future is bright. Harris in 3.
Fils vs Tsitsipas :
Tsitsipas’ backhand has gotten a tiny bit more consistent, but it is significantly worse than it used to be pre-slump. He has lost the ability to generate depth, so his game is entirely dependent on his legs and his forehand. These things work great, but it’s a lot of pressure and he’s no spring chicken anymore. Fils is playing at a very high level and just won Cincinnati, and his best thing for me is his consistent hitting in neutral rallies so Tsitsipas is likely going to have to play his absolute best to have a shot here. Fils in 3-4. He does tend to drop early sets.
Bublik vs Wolf :
JJ Wolf has been quietly playing some good tennis on the Challenger tour, and Bublik has not played since Kitzbuhel. Add in that Wolf is 3-0 on hardcourt against Bublik (albeit in 2023/22/19), and this is probably going to be tricky. Bublik is a better player and is much more seriously about his defense and shotmaking now, but no warmup events (pulled out of Cincinnati to attend a Cucumber Festival) makes be actually think Wolf can win this. It’s form vs ability here and that’s always very competitive early. If Wolf didn’t lead the h2h I’d like Bublik, but I expect Wolf in 3 or Bublik in 5.
Tirante vs Mannarino :
Tirante recently hit that level on his forehand where players are able to take full swings without worrying about missing the court. The only question here is how long he can stay there and will his backhand hold up. Mannarino hasn’t done much recently, but he’s always a tricky opponent so the patch of good play Tirante is in needs to continue for this to be simple. Tirante in 4.
Prizmic vs Shevchenko :
Tough spot for both, but winnable for both. Prizmic and Shevchenko’s hardcourt ceilings are pretty close for me. Prizmic is much better on clay, and he can play on hard but his power doesn’t mean as much. It’s also much tougher to take big rips on hard, and Shevchenko is pretty focused on extending rallies and making matches as grindy as possible. This requires Prizmic’s best tennis to avoid a 5th set, and we haven’t really seen that yet. I think he’ll win the early stretches of the match but his percentages might suffer from there. Prizmic in 4 of Shevchenko in 5 (#supercopoutprediction2026).
Paul vs Wong :
Coleman Wong was one of the most dominant performers in qualifying, and this is a tough draw. The two things that can go for Wong are his first serve and his backhand, and Tommy has a very solid backhand and is a pretty aggressive returner of seconds. Tommy was down and out against Vallejo in Cincinnati, but he came back and beat Hurkacz and Zverev in that event as well. My point I guess is that he can fumble sets, but in a long match he can find a way back in. Paul in 4.
Arnaldi vs Duckworth :
Duckworth is currently playing really well in Winston-Salem, so he almost makes me think he’ll win here. Duckworth is a grinder, but he serves really aggressively and he can spray errors and double faults at times. It’s hard for me to see him ever winning quickly, and Arnaldi is inconsistent but plays a good level from the baseline when he hits his level so this could go deep. While I was typing this Duckworth withdrew against Fery, so I’m not sure what happens here.
Wu vs Walton :
Walton is playing really well. I’m a big Wu Yibing fan but he’s had some recent losses that make him feel unreliable, and Walton plays very straightforward and consistent tennis so if you’re spraying errors he’s a tough out. Walton in 5.
Faria vs Brooksby :
Faria just beat Brooksby in Cincinnati, and I’d expect him to do it again. Faria is a claycourt guy, but he has big power on his groundstrokes and a pretty good service delivery. He reminds me of early Khachanov without the defense, and I think Brooksby hasn’t shown the type of defense yet that could profit from Faria’s impatience. Faria in 4.
Safiullin vs Alcaraz :
This is a tricky one. Alcaraz’s practice session is not usually something I watch, but I tuned in this week. It is pretty clear that his forehand production is not back to 100% yet in terms of power. He does have the ability to hit over it very nicely when it sits up, but the full swing forehand that puts a lot of torque on his wrist is something I didn’t see him hit often. He also missed a number of backhands. This doesn’t mean he can’t win, but I think he’s not going to be automatic here, and navigating a weakness while playing is tricky. Safiullin has the serving and power to be effective here, and has played some big matches against big names, but I think his rally tolerance and speed are a big issue against Alcaraz.
Carlitos (as he prefers to be called) really did himself a service with all the work he put in, because even in a subdued state it’s still hard to picture most players beating him. I expect him to get broken a few times in this match, and to have to rely on his legs to get him through, but I think Alcaraz is a guy who enjoys tennis and being back out there in front of a crowd will grant him a little focus. Beating Safiullin in 2025 would be just work. Beating Safiullin in 2026 is a slightly more fun task. Alcaraz in 3-4.
Women’s Singles :
Sabalenka vs Osorio :
Sabalenka arrives at the US Open with a strange combination of pressure and no pressure. She hasn’t won a major this season which leaves her a bit less prominent in the discussion of title favorites, but not having a major also has become the first note announcers are making when discussing her matches. Swiatek and Gauff seem in much better form in terms of focus and decision-making, so for now Sabalenka will have to show improvements to be considered the favorite. She’s had a run of losses that are fine but slightly unexpected, and the question for me is whether the consistent play was the norm or if that was just a peak patch.
Sabalenka was always a bit inconsistent with her shotmaking. She can hit the ball past anyone at any time, but on a given point it always feels like she can miss. During her dominant run at the top, this disappeared. Her backhand technique became more fluid and solid, she started adjusting her forehand to miss, and she added slices and variety to her game which took pressure off having to hit every ball hard. She also started to dig in on defense. There’s nothing wrong with the matches she’s lost this season, but she hasn’t been able to summon her best tennis in those moments and that’s a shift from the 2024/2025 seasons. Losing to Baptiste is fine given her level. Losing to Bejlek is fine given how high her peak is and how many balls she makes an opponent play. All it means to me is that Sabalenka isn’t automatic anymore, and while that’s a puzzle for her to solve, it’s almost good for the tour. The WTA has incredible depth right now, and in the 2/3 format in a humid and hot two weeks it feels like 10-20 different players could win and nobody would blink.
This first round would be tougher but Osorio has also become slightly less automatic. It’s tough to win marathon after marathon and her defensive pressure can sometimes fall short due to difficulties on serve. Sabalenka should win this in two; even if she has some lapses she’s going to get a look at a lot of second serves.
Zarazua vs Iatcenko :
Iatcenko played excellent in qualifying so this is almost doable. My worry here is unforced errors. Iatcenko hits the ball big and has a pretty good serve, but she can struggle a little on the run and her timing can disappear. She’s also not the best returner. Zarazua is a shorter baseliner who is basically looking to outlast and frustrate her opponents, so there is reason to believe she will be the first player to give Iatcenko problems. Zarazua in 3.
Selekhmeteva vs Ito :
Tennis research is fairly easy, but sometimes the information is very conflicting. Ito and Selekhmeteva just played in Toronto, and Ito won in 3. Since then Ito has lost to Dart and Sebov, and Selekhmeteva almost won a 125k event in Philadelphia (losing to Volynets in the semifinal). It’s a very tricky scenario also because of their styles. Ito slices a lot of forehands and doesn’t give her opponents much to work with, but Selekhmeteva has big swings (and is lefty) so her percentages really matter. Since she almost hit through Volynets (she had 6 set points in the 2nd), it’s very tempting to think that she’s at a higher level now, but her loss in Cincinnati to Stoiana is against another player who slices the ball constantly. It’s very generic to predict the same exact result, but one note I have is that the Japanese players are a bit more used to the very hot conditions, so in a long match I think Ito might get past again. Ito in 3 (this is a lazy prediction and does not feel like it has much value).
Krejcikova vs Rakhimova :
This is probably the perfect warmup for Krejcikova. Rakhimova is a great baseliner but she doesn’t have a huge serve and tends to just hit the ball hard in the court over and over. Not many shots are sent down the line, and Krejcikova has a good ability to reflect pace and her only real weaknesses are unforced errors and lateral movements. It is entirely possible that she crashes out first round since she’s on a 3 match skid, but those three losses (Tagger, Samsonova, Bejlek) don’t really look bad in light of what those players have accomplished recently. Krejcikova in 3. I do think she’ll start slow and the heat is not really her favorite thing, but she hits bigger off both wings and has a good serve to rely on in a long match.
Chwalinska vs Townsend :
After the French Open Kalinskaya grumpily said she wanted to see how Chwalinska did on hardcourt, and so far it’s been better than expected. Chwalinska isn’t winning matches in bunches, but her play has been pretty solid. This is a winnable match for both, but I think Chwalinska needs help that won’t arrive. Townsend can lose the plot at times and make many unforced errors, and Chwalinska plays solid defense and uses a lot of dropshots and slices, but Townsend has been fairly consistent this year on offense, and she hits big enough to take the racquet out of the equation for her opponent. This should be a fun match, but Townsend in 2 is what I’d expect.
Parks vs Preston :
Taylah Preston was one of the more promising prospects around this time last year, and somehow Gibson has taken that role over this season. Preston has good power and sotmaking, but the losses have piled up. She had a good run in Vancouver beating Sawangkaew and Hon, and she plays an opponent who is excellent and terrible all at once. Alycia Parks has one of the better serves on tour. She also crushes the ball when she lines it up right, and moves very well. Despite those talents, her consistency has been a constant issue, and she is very results-oriented on the court. Errors don’t sit well with her, and while a coaching shift to Jeremy Chardy last year did have some positive effects on her shot selection (much more patient), the tour knows now that if they can extend rallies she might implode.
Parks has been operating at a higher level, but is still very much vulnerable here. She’ll have crowd support in NY and did just beat Chwalinska in the last event, but she was out against Li the next round with only 49% of first serves in and 11 double faults. That # needs to be at 60 for her to beat people, because her second serve is about as reliable as Shapo’s at 5-5 40-40 in a third set. I’m sort of expecting Parks in 3 here. She is the better player if they both play well, but I find her pretty unreliable when her opponent is hitting the court.
Vandewinkel vs Pliskova :
Pliskova has had some tough draws in this North American swing and it’s left me a bit confused on her level. She lost to Andreeva and Bejlek, but sure she did because they both defend well and make their opponent move. This match against Vandewinkel would normally see her favored, but I think this is a really difficult spot for her. Defensively Vandewinkel is not the best, but she has a great serve and big offense. I think she’ll be able to score on Pliskova a bit easier than Pliskova will on her, and she’s won 13 of her last 15. It can be really tough to play your best against an opponent who you don’t know well, and Pliskova is somewhat in the second second half of her career so I’m not sure if the ability to really dig in is there at times. Vandewinkel in 2-3. Pliskova can wake up but I still think Vandewinkel sits even in the scoreline if she does.
Snigur vs Shnaider :
Snigur’s flat hitting should be good at the USO, so this is not an easy first round for Shnaider. Both players have the offense to score on their opponents in bunches, but I think Shnaider has moved comfortably into a gatekeeping role on tour. I don’t mean that in a bad way; she is in that second tier on tour and just seems able to win the matches she’s supposed to and get to the high-profile matches. She does occasionally win them, but I guess my point is that she doesn’t seem to implode or get panicked in early round clashes. Shnaider in 2.
Kostyuk vs Hunter :
There’s no way Storm Hunter should beat Kostyuk, but she’s been completely overlooked in matches constantly this season. She looked good her final round of qualifying, and Kostyuk has a poor attitude and doesn’t really problem solve well so this could get tricky at times. The matches where you’re expected to just win easily can often have some added pressure and when your opponent seems to want to exist and win it can be a little difficult Kostyuk in 2, but Hunter can possibly make this annoying in one of the sets.
Tauson vs Stephens :
Tauson is starting to build a little momentum, and for her it comes right on time since Sloane has started to play some good tennis again. The big concern for Tauson here is the weather. She does not seem to enjoy the heat and has had fatigue issues in the past, so if this goes long it’s worth keeping an eye on how she looks physically. If she’s fine, her offense should be just enough to beat Stephens. Sloane tends to present matchup difficulties for baseliners because she hits a heavier ball than most of them, but against the top tier offenses she often winds up being a bit too passive and at this stage in her career she can’t/doesn’t wish to really run down balls constantly. Tauson in 2.
Marcinko vs Birrell :
Marcinko is in a bit of a skid, and I don’t think the US Open are the best conditions for her game. She can batter away when she’s on but she tends to need time. Her opponent Birrell is playing slightly better but lost her last 5 matches in a row. This is a lucky draw for both, but Birrell won in three in Austin earlier this season so I’d give an extremely tiny nod to her.
Alexandrova vs Kessler :
Alexandrova can really lose some matches when she’s struggling, but August saw her wake up. She had wins against Sabalenka and Gibson so she should be the favorite here. Kessler is tenacious when she’s on but recently she’s had issues with her length and hasn’t really been able to grind matches out. Alexandrova in 2; she won their previous meeting last year in straights also and is playing decent ball right now.
Ruzic vs Li :
Ruzic has lost 4 of her last 5 on hardcourt, so her main hope here is Ann Li falling apart. Li really doesn’t problem-solve well on court so this is possible, but she’s been playing some of her better tennis in the past few weeks so it’s likely that she’s a little more offensively capable than her opponent which means an early lead and a good look at finishing the match. Li in 2-3.
Gibson vs Vekic :
This is unknowable for me. Gibson had a great flat backhand and a high ceiling, but this season has been rough on her. Vekic is on a 5 match losing streak, but she’s been close in all those matches (4 deciding sets in a row). I think Vekic’s ceiling is slightly higher, and she might be more consistent also, but she is another player who can get very flustered on the court and I think Gibson moves better than her and will give her trouble with her backhand down the line. Vekic in 3.
Kalieva vs Tararudee :
Tararudee has escaped the qualifier role at the majors, and now she plays Kalieva who is into her first major after solid wins against Costoulas and Valdmannova. I think Tararudee is beatable, but might be too consistent here for Kalieva. Valdmannova had runs of 3-4 games in a row at times and Tararudee is likely to take advantage of any leads she can get. Tararudee in 3. This should be very lose and Kalieva is a good player, I just think Tararudee is a little too composed in baseline rallies to lose a long match.
Noskova vs Volynets :
Volynets has just won the 125k Philadelphia event, and Noskova has shown some slight signs of the major winner hangover. That makes this a very tricky opener. Noskova still has the serve to carry her through, but she can struggle with being patient in the rally. It’s difficult when you see opportunities on every ball, but Linda will need to find the line between aggression and implosion to make a good run here. I think she can win this match, but it might take 3 sets if she tries to force the issue too much, because Volynets’ plan is to extend rallies and earn errors and she’s one of the better players on tour at that style of defense. Noskova can expect a diet of moonballs and lobs and slices here.
Pegula vs Ruse :
Ruse is a solid opponent here, but Pegula is playing tennis in another tier. With a little help from the draw she could actually win this tournament. Pegula in 2.
Williams vs Kenin :
I saw Kenin practicing and she looked relatively happy, which was good because her coach/father seems miserable 24/7. They have this Eeyore / Winnie the Pooh dynamic that seems unproductive, but Kenin has a pretty winnable first round here. Venus Williams can still play and make shots, but she cannot run. Tennis is a running game. Kenin in 2.
Sawangkaew vs Udvardy :
Udvardy has gotten on tour with tenacious defending and aggressive shotmaking in return games. It has been a long road to the tour for her and she has grinded many seasons of clay-court tennis at the Challenger and ITF levels. Panna’s hardcourt game isn’t bad, but Sawangkaew is a specialist at this so she’ll have a slight edge. There isn’t a quick path out of rallies for either, but Sawangkaew should be a little more automatic with her decisions which should make a difference. Sawangkaew in 2.
Zhang vs Fernandez :
Shuai Zhang can still play really well at times so this isn’t simple at all. The trouble is she’s a step slow now and the one thing Fernandez does exceptionally well is vary her location during baseline rallies. She’s also a very good counterpuncher so I think Zhang will be competitive in rallies but will wind up making a small error on the last shot quite often. Fernandez in 2-3.
Paolini vs Erjavec :
Decent luck for both to draw each other while struggling. Paolini should win in two.
Stefanini vs Yastremska :
Yastremska is supposed to win this but I have a hard time seeing it. Stefanini has a two-handed forehand which is interesting but also makes her very consistent. She hits the ball hard and she defends well. This basically asks the question you’re supposed to ask Yastremska which is “can you hit the ball in the court?” Yastremska has huge power but doesn’t tend to back off her shots, so errors can spray. She’s having a pretty mediocre season, and going in here I think Stefanini is the more reliable pick. The trouble is that she hasn’t really beaten anyone in qualifying who hits the ball that big, so how she deals with Dayana’s pace will be an issue. Stefanini in 3.
Golubic vs Parry :
I don’t think anyone really wants to play Golubic first round. She has no serve, but every shot you could possibly want from the baseline. She requires you to either serve great, or have the power and consistency to work long points, and that’s something a lot of players don’t have. She’s 2-0 against Parry, so this is tricky. Parry is on a great run in Monterrey, but it’s hard to turn things around after a big run, and the fatigue tends to be worse the second day. Golubic in 3 seems likely here. Parry is beating a lot of offensive prospects in Monterrey and I don’t think Golubic will give her the same errors.
Grabher vs Cirstea :
Grabher has a huge forehand but really is best on clay. Cirstea is playing great this season and should win in 2.
Svitolina vs Sierra :
Sierra is usually pretty consistent but she’s had issues this season with keeping the ball in play. Svitolina should take advantage of these lapses in 2 sets.
Joint vs Samsonova :
Maya Joint went from sliding off tour to playing some of her best tennis. This is one of those matches where her task is simple also. Samsonova hitting the court beats almost everyone. Samsonova missing the court loses to most players. Joint is a good counterpuncher but here her main goal should be remain solid and isolate Samsonova’s backhand. I do think Liudmila has put in extra work on her fitness this year (her legs look very strong) and that has helped her percentages a bit recently. They played 3 in Toronto, and I’d expect a similar tug of war with Samsonova eventually finding her range. Samsonova in 3.
Wang Xinyu vs Arango :
Arango is on half a skid and Wang beat her in straights in both their previous meetings (including this season in Doha). Wang in 2.
Blinkova vs Kalinskaya :
Kalinskaya withdrew from her last match with lower back and hip pain. She was down 5-0 in the third at that point, so there’s that. She should beat Blinkova if she’s healthy but with her it’s hard to know when the injuries are very serious and when the trainer calls/withdrawals are because the L is something she does not want to take. Chronic injuries are terrible and I wish her well, but enough opponents have grumbled about this to make me think there is some gamesmanship involved at times.
Navarro vs Boisson :
Navarro is having a decent 2026 compared to last season, and Boisson serves well but still hasn’t completely solved hardcourt tennis. Navarro in 2-3. She does love to go to a deciding set and Boisson won a match or two recently, so I wouldn’t automatically expect a shutout.
Koevermans vs McNally :
Koevermans can beat a lot of players in this draw. She has a huge serve and great power on her groundstrokes. The problem here is McNally is going to make her play all of the tennis. She’s able to put enough returns in play to test Koevermans percentages and she defends well enough to possibly wear down Koevermans legs. Add in that Anouk has played three rounds of qualifying already and I think McNally eventually gets this done. This could be a blowout (if she’s returning well) or a 3 set comeback (if Koevermans is able to maintain her level from qualifying in the early games and get comfortable).
Lee vs Boulter :
Boulter is the better player here by a good bit, but she really hasn’t thrived in ultra-humid conditions. Her beating Volynets in Cincinnati is a good sign, but her losing to Kayla Cross in Toronto is the worry here. Lee moves the ball very well and in patches where Boulter isn’t serving a high % I think she’ll thrive. Someone in 3 is my real guess. Boulter can win this if she finds her level, but I think it will be tricky against a new opponent with a ton of hometown support in difficult playing conditions. (Lee is my pick if you make me pick)
Muchova vs Kraus :
I’m not sure how well Muchova will play this week. She hasn’t played since Wimbledon, and lack of matches is fine if you practice but lack of matches in this heat can leave you a little bit fried in an early round. Kraus is a relatively safe opponent, but she has good power and has been getting closer and closer to being a regular winner on tour so this could be tricky early. Muchova in 2 but I think one set gets tricky because Kraus has been able to win 3-4 games in a row at times.
Women’s Singles :
Andreeva vs Tjen :
These two just played in Cincinnati and Andreeva won 6-1, 7-6. It’s about what you’d expect. Tjen has the biggest shot on the court with her forehand but it’s not possible to play constant offense and Andreeva doesn’t have huge holes in her game aside from a lack of power at times. I’d expect Andreeva to win in 2 again.
Knutson vs Lys :
Lys won their previous meeting in 2024 so this will likely be close given how well Knutson played in qualifying. Beating Lepchenko and Salkova is good stuff, and Lys just lost to Kenin in Cincinnati. I think the slight step up in level is going to be a tough one. Lys is vulnerable against most players but does have a good quality backhand and the ability to defend and move the ball well. Lys in 3.
Bartunkova vs Sherif :
Bartunkova had a great in Monterrey. It ended in a teary third set against Mertens, but Bartunkova’s serve and forehand are incredible and her ability to come up with ideas for shots is really useful. I think she only really struggles when he backhand is visibly weaker than her opponents because she sort of fights it off in those spots, so this is a safe match. Sherif is just not that good on hardcourt. Bartunkova in 2.
Maria vs Ostapenko :
I had the pleasure of watching some of Ostapenko’s practice session and she did not look enthused about tennis. This is not her weather and oddly in practice she missed a lot of low backhands. I could be conflating things but Maria’s slices are likely to be frustrating here. Maria won their two previous meetings but they were on grass which is understandable. I think Ostapenko going 0-2 in her leadup matches is telling. Maria in 2.
Potapova vs Valentova :
Valentova is in the finals of Philadelphia right now (thank you user prettytoe1692 for noting this event had not concluded) and I look at her as a rhythm player so I expect her to play well this week also. Fatigue is a slight concern since Potapova hits the ball big, but Anastasia just lost to Sloane Stephens and I haven’t seen the high level she played on clay recently. Valentova in 2-3.
Rus vs Jeanjean :
This is likely to go the distance, but I am again being swayed by in-person sights. Rus was struggling mightily against Bandecchi, but once she found her range she controlled the match completely. Since Jeanjean tends to win with her defense and forehand, I think Rus will have a hard time until she doesn’t. Jean jean has lost to Stefanini and Frech recently which is right around the level Rus is bringing. Aranxta also seemed unbothered by the conditions which I found impressive because I basically chose which stadium to attend by which had shade. Rus in 3.
Tagger vs Korpatsch :
Tagger was a big name coming out of the juniors and had some early success on tour. This was followed by the inevitable slump that comes with expectations, but in Prague she really played excellent ball and she’s brought that across the Atlantic Ocean. Korpatsch is a defensive wall so I always worry she’ll pull an upset, but Tagger beat her last season in straights and I think her serving gives her a big edge since Korpatsch doesn’t really have a big delivery. Korpatsch practiced with Seidel on Friday who has the same type of big power as Tagger, so I’d expect a very competitive 2-3 set win for Tagger. Just a side note but Tagger losing her last two matches makes me really disagree with the heavy -500 price tag that’s been attached. Starodubtseva is a somewhat similar task to Korpatsch because she’s looking to outlast you from the baseline. Staro has more power, but it’s never easy on tour.
Krueger vs Anisimova :
It’s funny to see discussion online of Anisimova’s big slump while she’s 10 in the world and just beat the Wimbledon champ in Cincinnati. I think there is a case to be made for her not being the pinnacle of focus and desire all the time, but Amanda has turned in so many good performances on offense that we’ve started to expect them. She very well could have beaten Pegula in Cincinnati (had a few open shots in the tiebreaker that she just missed) and she should beat Krueger here. Ashlyn has huge power and can run away with a match late, but she is likely going to be rushed here and Anisimova will be applying a lot of pressure to her second serve. Anisimova in 2.
Jovic vs Frech :
Frech is playing well recently and Jovic has been less than automatic. She’s another player who did so well in her early time on tour that we sort of expect her to just find a way to win. For a small athlete who hits big, I think this is slightly unrealistic. Switching balls and surfaces and grinding away for whole seasons is an easy way for players to wind up slightly flat or off in a given match. Iva should win this, but losses to Korneeva and Bouzkova in recent weeks show that she can be outlasted. Frech is a decent candidate to do this, I do think that she might be the less durable athlete though and she’s slightly outmatched off both wings. Jovic in 2-3.
Linette vs Jones :
Jones played excellent in qualifying and can absolutely win this match. Linette is capable of some great tennis, but she’s lost 4 of her last 5 and has been seen fairly frustrated on court both in matches and practice. It’s really hard to find your best tennis when you’re burnt out and it’s hot and humid, so I think the qualifier gets by here. Jones in 2.
Oliynikova vs Brantmeier :
Brantmeier had some early forays onto the tour but never really got the run of wins to stay there. This is absolutely a must-win for her. Olynikova is a scrappy defender but she makes all her $ on clay. I don’t think anyone else has been shut out or breadsticked on hardcourt this season as many times as her, and Brantmeier did play Shymanovich and Vandewinkel closely. Since Brantmeier has a slice backhand and not much in terms of tour results, this could go either way but one of them is at her best on the surface and the crowd should back her. Brantmeier in 3.
Eala vs Stoiana :
Stoiana is a good player and had a great run in qualifying, including beating Yue Yuan in the finals. If I was offered tickets to this match, I’d buy them. I don’t think the upset is really on the table, because Stoiana has had some troubles holding serve and Eala is a very tough player to score on. I don’t like Stoiana’s chances of hitting through her at 40-40, and Eala’s serve isn’t huge but is hit at a good % generally and is slightly annoying to return. Eala in 2.
Bejlek vs Bucsa :
Bucsa can keep this close but she hasn’t been consistent enough lately to hang with Bejlek. Bejlek in 2.
Kalinina vs Sakatsume :
This is a tricky spot. Sakatsume vs Ristic was the final round of qualifying and there was shade and a woman near me had tater tots I could smell so I watched the entire thing. Sakatsume was just more efficient on defense because she’s comfortable on hardcourt, but Ristic missed a lot of shots she didn’t exactly need to go for. She spent the match trying to wrestle back control and I’m not sure Kalinina will offer up the same misses. Kalinina has played 3 hardcourt matches the entire year and has lost two of them, but she took a set off Navarro. It’s the sort of match Kalinina could lose a 6-0 set in and I’d still think she had a decent chance to win. Sakatsume also doesn’t have huge power on her service delivery so I think Kalinina’s big swings may be effective. Kalinina in 3.
Badosa vs Kasatkina :
Badosa has not playing since Hamburg and Kasatkina has been pretty active, so I like her side here. She also won their last two hardcourt meetings. Badosa at her best can win, but if she was at her best she would not have skipped the warmup events. Kasatkina in 2 (I’m assuming Badosa is injured).
Gauff vs Sonmez :
Gauff serving well and hitting her forehand with confidence is a dangerous thing for the tour. Sonmez will make this exciting and she always competes, but right now Gauff is probably my pick to win this tournament. Gauff in 2.
Swiatek vs Wang Xiyu :
Tough opener for Swiatek since Wang hits the ball so big. Xiyu is a tall lefty with great power and an effective serve. Mobility wise I think she will get worked here, but it’s not exactly who I’d want to play in an early round and the Chinese players get a lot of support in NY. Swiatek in 2.
Podoroska vs Waltert :
Podoroska doesn’t necessarily have to lose this. She’s using her protected rankings to get into these events, but she did beat Seidel in Cincinnati. She has a good forehand, and Waltert isn’t really a hardcourt specialist. Waltert in 3 would be my guess but Podoroska might be able to drag this out and sneak a win.
Stearns vs Dart :
Stearns just won this matchup 1,6 in Cincinnati. Dart will be sharp coming off a qualifier run, but she was down and out against Watson and Stearns will be more familiar with her game this time. Dart did win their USO clash in 2021, but that is a long time ago. Stearns has become halfway consistent this season and I think she has the defensive ability to outlast Dart (who can make some racquet errors in long rallies and get frustrated). Stearns in 3.
Jacquemot vs Bouzkova :
Bouzkova has re-engaged wall mode and Jacquemot will not be able to deal with this. Bouzkova in 2.
Keys vs Korneeva :
Another really tough first round for a title hopeful. Keys is playing well this season, but Korneeva has recently played her peak level. If Madison doesn’t start off well she’ll wind up in a third set here, but Korneeva withdrew from her last match so she might not be 100%. Keys in 2-3.
Bondar vs Havlickova :
I like the qualifier here. Uchijima and Hibino are two very unique and difficult outs, and Havlickova was able to navigate both of them. She has good power, she’s fairly aggressive, and Bondar is better on clay (and just lost to Bucsa in Monterrey). Havlickova in 3.
Zheng vs Liutova :
Nooooo. Zheng is trying to get back on track, and Liutova is trying to establish herself on tour. I think both are possible, but this is a really unlucky first round for both. Liutova has qualified here, and won 2 of her last 3 events on or near tour. The one she didn’t win was a quarterfinals appearance, so it is safe to say this girl can seriously ball. If you watch her, the one thing that will stand out will be her willingness to hit the court. She has a very stable base and just seems like a ball machine. People send pace, she reflects it back. People make her run, she puts one extra ball back in play. With time or inside the baseline she does play an effective offense, and her play is really composed consider she’s still a junior. Very few players have done what she did in winning the Memphis title, and this is a winnable match for her.
To win here, something has to bother Zheng. Zheng serves much bigger than Liutova, and she has very repeatable mechanics on both wings. She’s very willing to trade moonballs, and the one thing that has unraveled her in my experience has been pace. If she’s having to rush, she tends to get stubborn about her shot selection and errors can build up. I don’t know that Liutova can really bother her with this, but I do think that she’ll be the more consistent player. If Liutova wins, it will have to be the long way. I expect Zheng to win when she’s in form, and again something will have to rattle her for Liutova to have a shot. Liutova in 3 of Zheng in 2. I don’t really think of Zheng as “back” yet, but I think she matches up decently here.
Putintseva vs Bencic :
Bencic is always good for a deep run at a major, and she’s been playing well this whole season. Putintseva is a fake test, and Bencic is not fake. Bencic in 2.
Osaka vs Zakharova :
Osaka will need her best tennis right away here. Her ability to reflect power on the backhand will be tested, because Zakharova goes for a winner on almost every shot. It reminds me (this will sound silly) of Cilic in a sense, because she never really hits a generic ball. Every shot is intended to move her opponent to the next position. This does leave her open to unforced errors at times and variance, but she’s gotten more consistent each season. I’m still expecting Osaka to come through, but a hyper-aggressive player is not who I’d want first round if I was her.
Cocciaretto vs Siniakova :
Cocciaretto withdrew from her last two matches with a knee injury and “illness”, so only her and her camp know how prepped for this she is. Siniakova is the favorite and she did win their previous hardcourt meeting.
Zidansek vs Timofeeva :
I found one small branch of shade at the Zidansek Andreescu match, and it was remarkable how well Andreescu was playing. It was also evident she was supplying all the offense, and it seems like she just hit herself out of the match eventually. Zidansek is good at dragging things out, and even though she was a bit lucky to advance, her winning in a marathon has been a hallmark of her career. Timofeeva withdrew from her last match, but had been in good form recently. If she’s healthy, she can win, but it’s a similar situation where it needs to happen quickly.
Quevedo vs Mertens :
Quevedo has a really nice game with crisp groundstrokes and good speed, but her hardcourt results are not good enough to think she has a shot here. Mertens is in the Monterrey finals and is likely to show up in excellent form here. Mertens in 2.
Sakkari vs Montgomery :
Sakkari just played 3 with Swiatek in Cincinnati, and Montgomery just needed a huge comeback to beat Carson Branstine, but their odds are fairly close. This does not make sense to me, so perhaps America loves Montgomery (fair), or perhaps someone knows something I don’t (illegal!), or perhaps they’re just wrong. Sakkari can implode at any moment, but she’s still a great athlete and can play some tennis. She has wins against Rakhimova and Korneeva recently and I think her level is good enough to beat Montgomery. I’m having trouble finding her record against lefties but I think she does have a fairly compact backhand with not much backswing so I could see high topspin forehands from Montgomery being an issue. Idk. Sakkari in 2.
Starodubtseva vs Seidel :
It is unclear to me when Staro will ball and when she won’t find the court. I do think Seidel did well to practice against Korpatsch since Starodubtseva will be a similarly wallish task, but her hardcourt results have not been good enough thus far for me to see her winning this. Starodubtseva in 3. I think Seidel can definitely blast her off the court for a set, but that’s probably it.
Vidmanova vs Bouzas Maneiro :
Big puzzle here. Vidmanova has a tremendous serve and is very good at closing to net. She’s capable of beating most players on tour, and definitely can get to the business end of most sets. The trouble is that she’s not the best defender yet, so players can also score on her. Bouzas Maneiro is very difficult to predict. She was hitting her backhand incredibly well in her last few outtings, but still lost to Siniakova and Wang. While she lost to them, she did almost beat Svitolina, so it’s a puzzle knowing when she’s really going to thrive and when she’s going to slump. Sometimes Bouzas will just spray errors, and when her timing goes she can lose a set quickly. Double faults, errors, these things will hand the match to Vidmanova. If Vidmanova gets a break, I think she can close out. The flip side is that I don’t think she has the rally tolerance to deal with Bouzas, and I think this winds up in a third. Vidmanova in 3, but I do not think this match is knowable until it begins.
Rybakina vs Frodin :
Thea Frodin actually was the stunt double for Serena in the King Richard movie which is pretty cool. She has a solid serve and a pretty useful backhand, so the future is bright for her after winning the USTA 18s Championship and getting herself a wildcard spot here. I don’t think she can beat Rybakina, but she should acquit herself well. Rybakina in 2.