2026 US Open Men's & Women's Quarterfinals - Day 1

Men’s Singles :

Tiafoe vs Michelsen :

This tournament has a lot of new names in the quarters, but Michelsen completely deserves his spot here. He has not dropped a set yet, but more importantly he has no dropped his level. Michelsen has been hitting the ball huge off both wings the whole first week, and last round Etcheverry did his absolute best to outlast him and it didn’t work. Michelsen had opportunities to miss or to back off the offense, and he just stayed at his best level. It makes this matchup against Tiafoe very good for fans, because for either player to win it will require one of the best matches of their careers.

Tiafoe is the only one of the two to drop a set so far, but since he needed 5 to beat Martin Damm he has been at his best. Last round Medvedev did his best to throttle Tiafoe with consistency, but Tiafoe was able to come up with the final winner time and time again. He was similar to Michelsen in that he never dropped his level, and he was also consistent enough to make Medvedev force some offense also when things got close.

Tiafoe is 2-0 against Michelsen. One 2-0 win in Houston that we can discard, and one 6-4, 6-3 win in Dallas in 2024 that is somewhat expected but not really reflective of their current levels. Michelsen is playing the best tennis he ever has. We have seen this level of ballstriking from him before but keeping it in the court almost constantly is a new development. The one shot he’s been thriving with is his backhand down the line. He’s been able to hit this with great depth. My issue with crowning him the winner here is that Tiafoe is a very good mover. Michelsen’s offense is bigger than Medvedev right now but he doesn’t move as well. Etcheverry was able to stay 1-2 games behind in each set just by hitting the ball hard to big targets, and Tiafoe adds accuracy and pace to that offensive plan. Both will be able to score on the other, but I’m expecting Tiafoe to be able to turn around slightly more points. Tiafoe in 4-5. Medvedev was the toughest match on paper, but Michelsen is playing better than him this week.

Shelton vs Alcaraz :

Hmm. I said Tommy Paul was the big test to see if Alcaraz was back, and Carlos left no questions about the answer. Compared to his previous level (pre-injury) Alcaraz is not as good, but he has changed some things about his approach that might make him even harder to beat. Before he was always looking to hit something somewhat offensive. He would aim close to the baseline and he could spray errors at times. This past week he has really started to just hit the ball hard in the court and accept what his opponent is going to do. The result is that it’s really hard to create against him, and when he’s not spraying errors his opponents have the added effect of realizing even during the first rally they control that it is going to take a ton of hitting to beat him.

Alcaraz’s backhand has had really nice depth this week at times, but the post-injury level has also seen him miss this shot more than he used to. The errors are not in bunches at all, but he cannot guarantee a shot just because it is a pressure point right now. His forehand in practice looked a little tentative, but Carlos was crushing this shot against Paul. Straight setting Tommy Paul isn’t the most earth-shattering result, but Alcaraz looked like a clear favorite to win this event in that match. The big question this round will be on his serve. If he’s serving well, I think he can win in 3-4. If he’s struggling, Ben does have the quality offense that is required to score on Alcaraz, and he’s playing very well this week.

Shelton had a resurgent Tsitsipas to beat, and he did so easily. Stefanos continues to shank balls and show that his game not being fully developed is always going to keep him from beating the top guys. Shelton’s backhand isn’t an offensive weapon, but it’s very solid and he uses his slice well. By comparison, Tsitsipas’ backhand is a target. Alcaraz is 3-0 against Shelton, and while this post-injury moment is a bit different, I think it has been a tough test for Shelton so far. Alcaraz’s speed and ability to change direction means he doesn’t have to break early when Shelton is on offense. He’s not the greatest returner, but his versatility does help. Shelton at times goes to big kick serves and off-speed stuff, and the Nadal-esque windmill forehand and Alcaraz’ willingness to use height and shape really help with sending these back.

Straight sets doesn’t feel like it’ll happen here. Alcaraz is playing tremendous ball, but Shelton’s offense has been a factor against even the top of the tour. He’s had a solid draw (Griekspoor/Hurkacz/Shapo/Tsitsipas) so I think he’s primed for this, but playing all those offenses means he’s not exhausted either. I’d expect Shelton to be most effective in the first two sets, and for Alcaraz to gradually wear him down if he can get to set 3 at 1-1. The last thought I had last night was actually that Alcaraz’s stamina is something that may arise here. He’s cruising so far so he’s not likely to hit a wall, and he’s in great shape, but he hasn’t played in a while, so in the second week there could be some slight wear and tear. It doesn’t make sense to call for that before it even becomes a question though, so Alcaraz in 4.

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Noskova :

Noskova has shown the power of a serve on the women’s tour. She was a very exciting offensive talent for a few seasons, so success is not new, but her finding the ability to serve well has placed her at the top of the tour almost immediately. Noskova is up to 6th in the world, and has just unraveled one of the better players of this season. I got some pushback on calling Kostyuk a pusher last match, and I think that is fair. When Kostyuk is playing someone she hits bigger than, she crushes the ball. Her offense is constant and she creates good angles. Lately, it seems like when she plays a higher tier opponent, she completely forgets this aspect of her game though. It’s really difficult to play your game when you’re on defense, but Kostyuk had a ton of opportunities against Noskova and couldn’t get much going.

Kostyuk’s dilemma against better players looks like this. She starts trying to infuse height and topspin in order to make life difficult on her opponent. This is fine, but it doesn’t happen. She winds up hitting her forehand very slow, and it tends to lack depth, and her forehand really never winds up anywhere but the middle half of the court. Moonballing can work, slices can work, depth can work, but slow balls that lack depth just make life tougher. The second part of the trouble starts when her opponent hits an angle for themselves. Kostyuk seems to try to counterpunch immediately off of these, and the errors flow. Against Noskova, this was a rough formula. Noskova has that off-forehand production where she’s able to create really good inside out angles. She also makes the ball skid nicely with that slapshot style when she goes inside in. For her to utilize this technique, she needs the ball to be a little high, so Kostyuk sort of played into her hands.

When things go bad, Kostyuk can narrate the story of things going bad. She can make errors and tactical choices in bunches that don’t really put her in good shape, and matches get away from her. I feel like I have the minimal information and am not qualified to suggest this, but I find it very odd that when she’s crashing out, her coach just sits there staring blankly. Tennis coaches tend to be partial babysitters so “shut up and fight” isn’t really on the table, but it reminds me of a kid who’s crashing out or being violent at the playground having a parent who just sits there and ignores it. This is a situation that has arisen a handful of times recently and I think it would help if there were some reinforcement or reassurance coming from her box.

For now, Noskova plays Sabalenka because she was the better player in round 4. Noskova did get tight at the end of the second set, but overall her serving puts her above her opponents. In this next match, I think she’ll be matched in the service department. Sabalenka is 2-0 against Noskova, beating her 6-4, 6-3 in Indian Wells and beating her in straights in Adelaide in 2023. I think the faster courts and Noskova’s recent run give her a bit of a boost, but I’m not seeing the upset here. Sabalenka can get outhit and make errors, and similar to Swiatek if you rush her she refuses to back down and can be forced into mistakes, but she stays committed to offense and she hits much harder than Kostyuk on average. Sabalenka had some moments in the second set where Townsend had momentum, but the match never really felt like she really was in danger or headed toward a loss.

Noskova has to serve well this entire match. If she does, I think she gets a set. Sabalenka is playing decent, but it isn’t her best tennis. In a year where she hasn’t been at her best, I think a start to finish performance of perfect quality isn’t really on the menu. Noskova’s backhand eventually breaks down when I picture this match, and I think she’s a little less adept on defense. Serve, forehand, snag a set, lose the match. Sabalenka in 3.

Navarro vs Pegula :

Ok then. The Pegula cold rumor seems unfounded. Jessica played a pretty solid match against Cirstea. Early on I saw the issue which would have made the prediction easier. Pegula keeps the ball low enough that Cirstea can’t rally swing full. When she leaned into shots, they sailed long. When she decelerated, she left the ball a bit short. Pegula basically hit every ball cross-court in this match, but Cirstea pretty clearly felt trapped in rallies and she never got much momentum. Cirstea only held serve once in the first and twice in the second, and even though Pegula dropped her serve a few times in the second, she’s played really solid. Pegula’s spot-serving is decent this week, and that aspect of her game will be under scrutiny because Emma Navarro is actually serving well here.

Kalinskaya and Navarro seemed like a good match on paper. Kalinskaya had beaten her before, and just beat Svitolina. Navarro proved too solid for her though, and it mirrored the Cirstea match a bit. Navarro didn’t hit many winners, but she hit the court with almost every neutral ball. She only really hit her backhand cross-court, but it was too much for Kalinskaya. Anna took her usual medical timeout, but she just really shot her way out of the match. Navarro also served decent at times and landed 60%, while Kalinskaya threw in 9 double faults and struggled at 50%.

Navarro is at her best and I’ve been wrong about her losing for two rounds already. Her and Pegula just played, and Jess won 7-5, 6-2 in Cincinnati. Navarro is thriving on being a wall, and Pegula is equally wally. Jess is also 4-0 against Navarro, and I would guess that since Navarro hits a pretty flat backhand, Jessica hitting the ball fairly low and with some punch can make things tricky. In a high profile match, things can go very quickly and both these players are consistent and hit well off both wings. I don’t see Pegula bailing out of rallies the way Kalinskaya did, so this should be a long and hard fought battle. Pegula winning in Cincinnati is very similar conditions to NYC courts and weather, so I’m going to be quite boring and take Pegula here. Pegula in 2-3.