2026 US Open Men's Singles First Round - Top Half

Men’s Singles :

Zverev vs Sonego :

Zverev has finally gotten the major title he has always wanted, and almost immediately there is a chance to add number 2. With Sinner out and Alcaraz in questionable form, Zverev is not just the 1st or 2nd option to win this title, he’s also getting to fly somewhat under the radar since Alcaraz is still the big name. Running just behind him are Djokovic and Medvedev and Fritz, who are all capable of beating him but have different reasons for why they might not. For Djokovic, stamina is the big question. For Medvedev, desire and composure is the issue. For Fritz, he just hasn’t put himself in position to win a major before, so while I think he’s a more consistent performer than the tier just behind him, I don’t think it’s a bad spot for Zverev at all.

Shortly behind them are the Shelton/FAA/Mensik/Jodar/Fils/Paul/Tiafoe grouping (I’m sure I’m leaving someone out). All capable players, but they haven’t done it before and they all have slight question marks about their game at this stage. Shelton’s backhand has kept him from beating the top 2-3 guys in a major. Felix’s backhand and consistency make things very tough for him against the top tier. Mensik has a slight forehand glitch and can have stamina issues. Jodar is young still so while he has the tennis IQ and skill, winning a major would be an extremely incredible task. Paul has had random abdominal issues and can shoot himself out of sets, and Tiafoe might be the player in the group capable of elevating their game to the highest level right now for a single match, but he also tends to play to the level of his opponent which means a tricky path. In short, Zverev has a good chance at this. Hardcourt is not his best surface, but sometimes seeing the ball go through the hoop early can prepare you to win.

Sonego is starting to play better, but it’s a bad matchup against Zverev. Alex tends to sit in the crosscourt backhand exchanges, and Sonego cannot survive these. Zverev in 3. He did smash a racquet in practice so I don’t expect him to feel that comfortable, but the first few rounds for him are very safe.

Halys vs Diaz Acosta :

Diaz Acosta is a solid player and a great defender, but he’s just been playing clay this whole time. Granted he just won a Challenger, but this is a much different surface and one Halys has been active on. Halys in 4.

Dimitrov vs Popyrin :

Dimitrov playing qualifying was interesting, and he got a lucky walkover in the final round against Virtanen. He’ll be warmed up and well rested for this, and Popyrin has been struggling mightily to find his game this season at times. Popyrin also withdrew from his last match against Gaston so I’m having a hard time seeing him win here. Dimitrov in 3-4.

Hanfmann vs Tabilo :

I don’t see either player really dominating this match. Hanfmann has a huge serve (and won their previous meeting) but his lateral movement is slow for the tour. His power should work early since Tabilo can have trouble with his backhand length at the start of a match, but Tabilo’s serve is very effective and Hanfmann’s backhand is not the greatest on defense. This makes Tabilo being a lefty a good situation. Tabilo in 5 is my guess, and since this will come down to who wins tiebreakers there are not really any locks.

Darderi vs Wendelken :

Wendelken vs Gaubus was probably the most exciting match of the qualifiers on the men’s side, and the one thing I was really impressed by was Wendelken’s ability to rip forehand from anywhere. That offense will be essential against Darderi, who is one of the trickier opponents on tour to hit through. The hardcourt game has not been good for Luciano at all, but he still has a decent serve and an effective forehand. Wendelken looked good in qualifying, but Darderi feels like a step up from Gaubus. Darder in 4.

Svrcina vs Royer :

Good qualifying run for Svrcina. McDonald was dominating things with his forehand in the finals but once Dalibor found his backhand it was over. When I was a child I opened my math textbook and someone had removed all the pages and just written “Dalibor is inevitable” inside. I failed that class, but I learned a valuable lesson. This is a tricky match but a good opportunity for both. I would like Svrcina’s side, but Royer did one of the best things in tennis. He dropped down to the Challenger level to get more reps before a big tournament. It worked out, because he won the title in Kingston. This gets tricky because Svrcina won their two previous matches, but they were both on clay where it’s a lot harder for Royer to serve his way through. I would expect this to be very close, and for Svrcina to just outlast Royer in 5. Royer’s offense vs Svrcina’s defense basically, and since Dalibor is short his serve is going to make him take the long road.

Sweeny vs Moutet :

Nice draw for both. Moutet is a headcase but he has played the better level of tennis recently and Sweeny wins with his speed and stamina. Moutet is fine playing long rallies and has the more varied and bigger offense here. Moutet in 3-4.

Fery vs Musetti :

Arthur Fery has a very complete game, and great composure. This is the reason behind his heroic comebacks, but I find that while he does everything well, he doesn’t do anything great. This allows his opponents to play, and so while he belongs on tour, I don’t see him with many easy matchups. Musetti has been playing slightly better every week during the NA swing, and I think Fery will have a hard time hitting through him even with control. Musetti has settled into a nice gatekeeper spot on hardcourt, so I expect him to win a few rounds and then lose to Zverev. Musetti in 3.

Jodar vs Kokkinakis :

Kokkinakis can score on just about anyone, but I think even if he redlines at the beginning he will get reeled in. Jodar is a pretty clear top 5 prospect at this point, and with Sinner and Alcaraz showing signs of being human he has some time to work his way into contention. His serve isn’t huge but he’s able to locate it well on big points, and his shot selection (like most Spanish Federation players) is very intelligent. Jodar in 3-4.

Maroszan vs Zheng :

Maroszan could easily lose this, but Zheng will have to be on offense early and often. Maroszan and Duckworth had a close match this past week, and the one thing that cost Maroszan is his insistence on returning the ball with interest. When players hit a deep shot, he almost always half volleys it. Whenever he’s rushed, he sends the ball long. There isn’t really an adjustment on a break point or set point, and that means Zheng has a window of opportunity. Zheng generally loses to players who dominate the backhand exchanges, but he’s been improving that wing recently. Zheng in 4.

Svajda vs Altmaier :

Svajda is the slight favorite in this one according to the books, but Altmaier is 2-0 against him. Altmaier also has won a few matches recently, and Svajda has lost 4 of his last 5. When Zach plays well, it’s because he’s serving well. His results at majors have been better than elsewhere, but this is a very tricky spot. Altmaier in 5. I think he is just a bit better at tennis even if he’s not really the greatest on hardcourt, and it’s hard to ignore Svajda’s slump.

Cerundolo J.M. vs Ruud :

Ruud had back issues in practice, and I strongly suspect he is just going through the motions here. If he were healthy he’d probably be able to grind past Cerundolo, but Juan has been grinding away and has improved his serving a great deal. I think his 3 set loss to Buse looks a lot better now that Buse has won the title also. Cerundolo in 4 or via withdrawal.

Bergs vs Taberner :

Taberner is a throwback name. He can be solid, but Bergs should win in straights.

De Jong vs Passaro :

Passaro was down early against Mochizuki but he started to really hit his forehand well and that was the end of the match. The amount of spin and wobble he’s getting on the ball right now looks very annoying, and De Jong hasn’t been playing his best the past month. Passaro in 3-4.

Choinski vs Van De Zandschulp :

Botic is playing very well lately. This is a matchup between two big servers who don’t move well, and Botic is a good bit quicker and more versatile on defense. He’s also defending incredibly well to his forehand side, so the only way I see him losing this is if his backhand braks down completely. BVDZ in 4.

Guerrieri vs De Minaur :

ADM is playing some decent tennis lately, so he is supposed to win this comfortably. Guerrieri was slated to lose all his matches so far this event though, and that didn’t stop him. He’s a solid lefty baseliner with good speed, so while I think ADM will wear down his backhand, the rallies should be long and entertaining. ADM in 3-4. Alex hasn’t been his automatic self this season, so I’m not really expecting a ton.

Auger-Aliassime vs Hijikata :

FAA needs to lock in right nowwwwwwww. This is a great opportunity for him if he can find his best serving because even though he isn’t going to be the favorite in the semifinals or finals, he’s likely going to be facing someone who really really wants to win, and him playing well would be frustrating for them. Hijikata is a simple first round, and if he wants to win this event, he needs to put this away in 3. Start strong, be clinical, get to the second week fresh.

Burruchaga vs Khachanov :

Khachanov is having a dismal hardcourt swing so far, but he should still win this. I don’t think it will be close for two reasons. One, Khachanov just lost to Tomic and Kovacevic. Two, Burruchaga plays every single point as hard as he can. Khachanov’s serve should get him the match, but I am guessing he gets rolled in at least one set. Khachanov in 4.

Bonzi vs Molcan :

Molcan has been grinding on clay, so Bonzi’s run in Winston-Salem (Majchrzak, Hijikata, Botic) looks good enough here. He’s also fairly good at navigating the 3/5 structure, so Molcan’s grinding style might backfire if this goes deep. If Molcan had been playing hardcourt I’d like his chances, but it appears he may be less than serious about his chances here. Bonzi in 4-5.

Buse vs Giron :

Buse just picked up the title in Winston-Salem, so despite the fatigue concerns I think he can win this. His hardcourt game isn’t as well planned as Giron’s (big serve/big forehand), but Buse’s main approach to the game is to hit inside out forehands, and Giron’s backhand is a big target. Unless he’s completely exhausted or withdraws, Buse in 4.

Mensik vs Mochizuki :

Mochigoat has arrived in the main draw. They tried to defeat him in qualifying, but he cannot be defeated, even when he is defeated. Shinato should do well here since Mensik is a slow starter, but Passaro’s power was able to make him miss, and Mensik adds a huge serve and a better backhand to the same forehand ability. Mensik in 3-4.

Rodionov vs Mpetshi Perricard :

June was the last time GMP won a match on tour, so it’s not outlandish to think that Rodionov’s powerful offense is enough for him to get through here. I don’t see either player doing great in their opponents service games, but Rodionov is probably a little more consistent from the baseline since he came through qualifying. Rodionov in 4-5.

Vallejo vs Monfils :

It is tough to gauge how much Monfils wants to win at this point. He can still play great tennis, but he gets tired, he plays for the crowd more than he used to, and he has also been spotted giving matches to worthy opponents. I think he has sort of leaned into doing good as he leaves the tour, and creating a highlight moment for a nice opponent seems like something he enjoys. This makes it tough to predict his matches. He can beat Vallejo, but I don’t know if he will. Certainly Vallejo doesn’t sit in the Hijikata/Sweeny camp where he’s a nice story, but working for Vallejo is the fact that he’s playing better ball than them. He serves decent, he rallies well, and he is tenacious. I think Monfils wins a set or two because he wants to, but Vallejo eventually wins on stamina. Vallejo in 5.

Borges vs Tien :

I like Tien here. He’s 2-0 against Borges, and has yet to drop a set. He beat him in the Australian Open this year, and him being a lefty makes Borges’ backhand a slight liability. Tien also hits with more shape while Borges hits a flat ball, so I think in pressure rallies he can hit harder with fewer errors. The courts are good for Nuno’s style, but I’m not really seeing a way for him to create distance or win short points against Tien. Tien in 4 close sets.

Fritz vs Blanch :

Good opener for Fritz. Darwin Blanch is excellent, but I think he will shoot himself out of this match a bit. Fritz in 3.

Bellucci vs Piros :

Piros was basically gone against O’Connell when Chris hurt his ankle and had to withdraw, so this is a very lucky situation for him. Even luckier, he plays a guy who has been losing a ton of matches. On a given point, Bellucci is in the top 30 levels. Overall though, he’s been just a tiny bit off for long periods of time. Missing rally balls is poison on tour, so Piros needs to grind here. I don’t see him as hitting the ball hard enough to really break down Bellucci’s defenses, but if he can make this a long match he might win on %s. Bellucci in 3 or Piros in 5.

Ugo Carabelli vs Struff :

Struff should serve well enough here to win. CUC has had a good season but he’s been slowing down in this hardcourt swing and I don’t love his returning. Struff in 4, but of course the caveat is that Struff makes poor decisions and rushes everything.

Cerundolo F. vs Misolic :

If Cerundolo feels like playing, he can win. Misolic has not played since February, so this very much feels like a check to cover the winter expenses and that we’ll see him start winning again in the winter. Cerundolo in 3.

Blockx vs Barrios Vera :

Classy serving battle here. Blockx is much more solid in the rallies and serves a bit bigger. He’s had injury issues, but should win in 3-4.

Shang vs Trungelliti :

I have to issue a correction. I had mentioned in the Wimbledon article that Trungelliti was mixed up in a match-fixing scandal. It should be noted that he was the one who reported this issue, not the one who was perpetrating it all. Apologies to the Trungelliti family and anyone who was misled by my statement.

Shang has returned from some injury issues and is playing decent ball. The Sonego loss means he could easily lose this match also, but he’s slightly better on this surface than Marco, and should be able to grind out a win. Trungelliti serves better, but I see him dropping sets on hardcourt quite often due to his aggressive style, and I think Shang’s speed will allow him to pick Marco off at net and earn some errors. Shang in 5.

Basavareddy vs Schoolkate :

Nishesh has one of the wider ranges of ceiling to floor on tour, but he was excellent in qualifying. He also served well which is not always the case for him. He got the qualifer vs qualifer spot which is fortuitous for him, and his opponent Schoolkate has been stuck off tour for a while and isn’t playing his best. Basavareddy should be able to utilize his aggressive returning and speed to make inroads here, and I think his service level right now is just good enough to close out. Basavareddy in 4 and Schoolkate somehow winning the 3rd.

Cobolli vs Comesana :

Comesana has been finding his form slowly, but this is a huge ask. I left Cobollo of my list of third tier favorites, and that was probably a big mistake. He has a great forehand and has proven his ability to dial up big serves in big moments. Flavio is a baller and it is likely that he makes a good run here. Cobolli in 3.