2026 US Open Men's Singles First Round - Bottom Half

Men’s Singles :

Medvedev vs Gaston :

Medvedev lost to Van De Zandschulp in Montreal, but he didn’t seem to care. Medvedev lost to Nakashime in Cincinnati, but he only half seemed to care. Medvedev lost to Damm in Winstom-Salem, and he definitely didn’t care. Medvedev has been burnt out for most of this year, and while he still throws a tantrum and gets frustrated, it feels very much like he’s just going through the motions. The players on tour who are defensive walls tend to have a hard time keeping that going their entire career (Norrie/ADM are good examples of this), and when they’re making errors, not fully committed, or not fully healthy they really can struggle to find wins. Add in that they’re usually big names to snag, and things get rough. Daniil’s last big slump on tour coincided with his shoulder being a bit too sore to really crank out serves, and that seems to be the case recently. His game is still there, but if he’s not scoring quickly on serve then his grinding style really starts to build pressure on him rather than his opponents.

In Montreal, he was completely unable to escape rallies with Van De Zandschulp. Botic was pushing in a lot of rallies, and Medvedev looked stressed out and hesitant. When he finally went for winners, he snatched at the shots and dragged them wide. In short, he’s as beatable as he’s ever been, so this is a match worth scrutinizing. When someone is vulnerable, they do still get to play tennis, and Daniil has shown that he cares enough to grind at the majors so he’s still a deserved favorite against Gaston. Hugo had a good run through qualifying, but Colton Smith was the toughest match he had. He doesn’t really have the power on his groundstrokes to break down Medvedev, and being lefty doesn’t matter as much against Daniil since his backhand is his preferred wing. Gaston’s game is predicated on dropshot/lob combinations, and while Medvedev is poor at net, he does still move fairly well. I have also seen him get visibly annoyed by opponents who spam dropshots, and this can almost help him over the course of a long match because it grants him a little focus.

Every Medvedev match here will be a test, but he should win this. He should recognize that with Alcaraz rusty and Sinner absent, there is a good chance for him to make a deep run, but it still will take a complete reversal of his current trend and that’s tough to do automatically. Medvedev in 4 is what I sort of expect. Gaston is playing well and Medvedev has responded to break deficits by getting frustrated and trying to end the set quickly, so I think it’s entirely possible that he’ll donate one. If he wins in straights that’s actually a great sign.

Gorzny vs Collignon :

Gorzny is a promising player from the US and he’s beaten Borna Gojo and Marc Polmans recently which indicate he’s ready to compete at the Challenger level. This is probably too much of an ask for him, but Collignon does struggle a bit on fast hardcourts and the US Open courts have looked a bit tricky this week. Collignon doesn’t move great and prefers clay, but he does still have a huge serve and very clean groundstrokes when he has time. I think the weight of shot over the course of a long match will give Gorzny a lot of trouble. Collignon in 3.

Munar vs Atmane :

I’m gonna set the over / under for code violations here at 2. Munar has a poor attitude and really doesn’t possess the power or serving to impose himself in the North American swing. He works hard and he’ll push Atmane, but he’s been inactive and he’s been losing. Atmane can crash out and smash racquets, but he has some very solid wins this season (Draper/Khachanov/Etcheverry recently). If those seem unique choices to highlight, I picked those not because they’re recent but because they’re rusty players. Atmane is facing another guy who’s solid but not at his best, and that’s where he’s thrived lately. Munar’s ability to extend rallies and his commitment to hitting the court will allow Atmane to implode, but Terence has shown himself to be a very skilled shotmaker and his percentages should get him through here. Atmane in 4-5.

Shimabukuro vs Rinderknech :

This matchup gives Shimabukuro a boost, but there are some things I’m worried about. Shimabukuro has a very aggressive offense, and Rinderknech doesn’t move well. I think he’ll be able to hold serve often which helps him a bit. The trouble I see is that Rinderknech is a bit of a servebot, but he also tends to play a half-consistent style. Even though he plays aggressively and comes to net often, he doesn’t just bail out of rallies when he’s on defense. I worry he’ll be able to rush Shimabukuro on most second serve returns and Sho can get a little erratic when you take time away. Neither player is playing that poorly recently, but both have struggled in winnable spots. I think Rinderknech wins 3-4 very close sets.

Vacherot vs Kovacevic :

Kovacevic does dress like Ash Ketchum, but he doesn’t seem to win at the end of every episode. Alex has a really enjoyable game to watch with the classic one-hand backhand and a pretty good serve, but his returning is just not automatic and he is often the less consistent player in neutral rallies in a long match. Working for him here is Vacherot’s somewhat surprising slump. After a breakout 2025 and a great early season in Australia, he had a very solid clay swing with a semifinals performance in his home event in Monte Carlo. Recently he’s been struggling to recover from a left foot stress fracture that he received in Madrid, and it seems like he isn’t quite back to form. This makes this a must-win for Kovacevic, but a healthy Vacherot can basically serve even with Kova. It’s pretty standard here to expect Kovacevic to win until Vacherot proves otherwise, but Kovacevic’s returning is poor enough that I don’t see him creating huge distance.

Since this is a major, it is very possible that players are entering just to pick up a check. It all adds up to Kovacevic in 4, but I would look at Vacherot’s early play from the baseline to see how long this will last.

Majchrzak vs Medjedovic :

Spellcheck is crashing out on me right now, but this is an interesting matchup. Neither player has won a match in their last two events, and while Medjedovic is better, the humidity and heat at the US Open is significant. I’m not sure that Medjedovic is going to be able to grind it out here and Majchrzak has been way more active, opting to go to Washington where he beat Tommy Paul. Majchrzak in 5. I do think Medjedovic can win the early exchanges because he has significant power and a better serve, but this is not an event I expect him to thrive in.

Vukic vs Sakamoto :

I had the pleasure of sitting in the stadium for Sakamoto vs Nishikori, and it was awesome. Nishikori came in playing incredibly well, and was visibly second best throughout this match. Sakamoto’s serve is a cannon, and he hit winners during the rally that made the growd gasp. I was too busy eating $7 cookies to gasp, but it was very impressive. The only worry I had about Sakamoto heading into the draw was him playing a super pusher like Norrie or Navone, because his backhand rally tolerance doesn’t really stand up to the test. This draw is fine though. Vukic is a big server with a good forehand, but he has only played at his peak twice this year so I expect Sakamoto to be much sharper, and Vukic to have an awfully difficult time returning serve. Sakamoto in 3-4.

Damm vs Tiafoe :

Tiafoe played an epic match in the US Open against Alcaraz in 2022 and this was where he announced himself to mainstream tennis. That felt like his best chance to snag a major, but this event actually is. Tiafoe worked on his fitness over the offseason and it has given him the ability to grind in long matches. His combination of slightly pushy tennis and alternation of big serves and kick serves in a third has made him a very difficult opponent, and with the humid weather here this tournament is likely to be about grinding. This is a tough start because Damm has a big enough serve to get deep in sets, and because Tiafoe is really his most snaggable in the first rounds. He can hit the ball a little too big early in tournaments and the pace the game is played at in the opening round often makes it difficult to avoid errors. The draw won’t get easier with Sakamoto in the next round, but I think Tiafoe’s heavy forehand will wear down Damm’s backhand over the course of this match. Tiafoe in 4. Damm is very dangerous but he’s blinked in some big moments and I don’t think him being a lefty is a huge boost against Tiafoe since he moves so well to the backhand side and hits such a heavy topspin forehand cross.

Nakashima vs Baez :

Nakashima is the matchup nightmare for these baseliners. He has servebot stats, but plays consistent/conservative enough in rallies that he doesn’t really feel pressured by players like Baez who are looking to outlast their opponent. Nakashima vs servebots and vs defensive baseliners is a matchup I always like for him. Nakashima in 3.

Michelsen vs Cina :

Last year I watched Cina lose a crushing 3rd set to Federico Agustin Gómez, and this year he reversed that result. It’s a solid result for him (beating Bu in 3), and he certainly has the type of game you can expect big things from. There’s nothing flashy, but he reminds me a little bit of Fritz in the sense that his service motion and swings seem so repeatable. He has a solid serve and a smooth forehand and I think he’ll need to be on point here. The way to beat Michelsen is to keep him moving. First serves aren’t going to be dealt with, but if Cina’s % drops Michelsen’s power is likely to be a problem and I think he will be a bit more consistent in the backhand exchanges. Michelsen in 4.

Merida Aguilar vs Fucsovics :

Merida Aguilar had one of the best July/August stretches anyone really can. He made the quarterfinals of Montreal, and managed to win 2 rounds in Cincinnati also. His game is hyper-aggressive and his shotmaking is incredible. In his weight class, he is one of the best player. What was exposed against Tien was that his rally tolerance only lasts as long as the ball goes through the hoop. Once he starts to miss, he bails out of rallies earlier and earlier, and tends to let his box have it. He does still play the match, but it seems more for the crowd at that point. This round he should be sharper than Marton Fucsovics who is 0-2 so far in North America, but it’ll be interesting in his next rounds to see how he handles players who can seriously defend. I would put Fucsovics in that category, but Merida is fine with time and control. It’s when players like Tien make him run lateral sprint drills that he starts to emotionally check out. Merida in 3.

Cilic vs Rublev :

Cilic has become Wawrinka for me. He’s able to win the first set, but as he starts to fade in the second it has that dreaded “oh, my favorite player is a lil old” feeling. He tends to alternate between aggression and safe play at that point, and neither are really his thing. He has always been very consistent and committed to moving his opponent regardless of the situation, and as his interest in sprinting leaves during matches it seems that he sort of just wants things to be over. The choice of when to go safe and when to go big is really tough, and I think compounding this is his opponents clocking his level falling off. Nobody misses the court when they think you might be tired, so all the safe play in the world doesn’t help. Additionally, every error gives them hope, so going for broke doesn’t work. What is the solution? Just become younger. With Dr Blurry’s new Health Goop, you can grow a new anything. Old arm? Grow a new one. Tired leg? Grow two more! The secret ingredient is slime I found in my yard. Call now, supplies are running out (only one bucket of slime remains).

Rublev is really struggling this season, but he should eventually get this done. His mental struggles have never really subsided, and at this point I think it is time to focus more on that than anything else since these are the last few years of his career. He should enjoy them. Rublev in 4. Cilic can still ball, but I think once he loses his first set he will have a hard time reversing course.

Etcheverry vs Kopriva :

Not an easy matchup here, and both will be happy with their draw. Etcheverry has way more success on hardcourts, but not much success this season. Oddly, I feel he’s having a tough year but he’s 23-21 on tour this year. 5-8 on hardcourt isn’t great, but I suppose he is slightly favored against Kopriva. Kopriva’s backhand is much more solid, but this would be half a surprise if he won. Etcheverry in 4.

Fearnley vs Landaluce :

Did Fearnley know he was in the draw? Two lucky loser spots opened up in the men’s draw, and Fearnley was on serve in the third set of qualifying finals. These situations are always a little suspicious for me, because in the past players have opted to lose and take the better draw and help out their friends, and other players have dropped out at certain times to benefit players. I’m not overly suspicious here because the lucky loser is based off a random draw (2 highest ranked players if there’s one spot before the end of qualifying, 3 highest if there are two spots, etc), but Fearnley is being rated highly by sportsbooks here and I don’t quite agree. Rodionov has a big serve and a powerful forehand, but Landaluce is a cut above him. Martin has two rough losses recently to Bellucci and Tirante, but I can forgive the second since Tirante is playing the best tennis of his life.

Fearnley’s game is all about strong pace down the line and aggressive shotmaking. I don’t think he’s the most consistent players, but when he’s hitting the court he’s capable of a top 50 level. It’s lazy, but I think Landaluce is a bit more consistent than him. Landaluce in 4-5. I’m prepared to eat it here, but I think the Fearnley hype has only delivered half the time and Landaluce’s slump doesn’t tend to dip quite as low.

Wawrinka vs Berrettini :

There was a bit of noise about Kypson getting a wildcard spot over Wawrinka, but it seems he is in now after Kypson injured his knee. It’s fair for Wawrinka to get a spot, and I don’t really have a great answer to the debate about aging wildcards. It has been pretty clear for over a season now that Wawrinka is not going to win more than 1 round per event, but he still is one of the best shotmakers on tour and his skill is extremely enjoyable to watch. 

The system of having a small group of people decide to just randomly award a spot to someone is pretty much flawed from the start, and I think part of the issue with the tour having depth is that there are a lot of good options. I can point to 50 guys in the 100-200 range who would play their butts off if they got on tour. There are 20-30 WTA juniors right now who could snag a pro if they got a chance. There are probably 20 veteran names who could pack the stands right now if they decided to hop into a 250. The qualifier today had seats at every match, but Nishikori’s match had a line to get in that took 20 minutes to clear. The tournament is trying to sell tickets, and tennis isn’t mainstream enough for people to be excited about a lot of the non-veteran wildcards. For every Jodar there’s a Michael Antonius who no on has seen but maybe they should. No matter what they do, someone will be upset. Venus Williams and Andy Murray have kinda kept this conversation at the forefront, and despite this being a somewhat similar spot, I want Wawrinka in the draw. If you watch this match, you will be treated to top tier offense and a great display of skill and shotmaking from both. I think they’re very much even for the first two hours, and then I want to say Berrettini pulls away but he hasn’t exactly been a picture of health and fitness for the last season or two. Berrettini in 4-5.

Navone vs Djokovic :

If ever there was a perfect time to witness the #25 run, this is it. The US Open being so wide open on the men’s side really lends itself to the idea that Djokovic can win, and since his recent losses at majors have mostly been in competitive matches against Sinner and Alcaraz, it’s clear that he can still summon his best level. Working against him is the weather in NY. The heat and humidity is not the conditions where you’d expect a player who’s been losing stamina contests to thrive, but Novak is still much better than most of his opposition. Matches like this won’t help, but this little section of the draw is one he should navigate. Navone isn’t great on hardcourt, but he will make Djokovic supply all the offense. Since Djokovic starts off fairly slow in his first rounds, I would expect him to need to expend a good bit of energy to win this. Djokovic in 4 actually sounds wrong because I think he’s a game or two better in every set, but humid conditions and a player who’s likely looking to avoid redlining in an early round could make for a slow and steady grind rather than a dominant performance.

Shelton vs Griekspoor :

Shelton looked like the Berrettini of his era for a while. His play was tremendous, but he’d come up just short against the big 3 type players. His serving and shotmaking were top tier, and he had been steadily improving his backhand. The best thing about his game seemed to be his ability to step up when he needed to, and this was largely about his serving. Normally, this would be a huge opportunity for him. Last year though, things sort of took a turn. Shelton revealed that he had a little shoulder soreness, and questions about how long he’d be able to uncork huge serves arose. Shelton did just win Montreal so this will sound strange, but he has sort of exited the tier for me where he’s automatically able to beat all opposition by dialing up more pace. For me right now he’s in the second tier, but if he starts cooking this will be a great situation for him.

Griekspoor managed to win some games in Montreal, but his play has struggled this season. In a serving battle, Shelton is a bit more consistent and his baseline game can be hyper-aggressive but his confidence and rally tolerance are better as well. Shelton in 3-4. The loss to Faria in Cincinnati can be ignored after his title run, but first rounds are always difficult.

Dzumhur vs Hurkacz :

Dzumhur seems like an entirely different person from week to week, and the only consistent thing in his game is that he demands the same ball for the next point anytime he scores. This is an interesting match just because of the David / Goliatch aspect, but Hurkacz won the Challenger in Cancun and Dzumhur is unlikely to hold serve often enough to be a huge threat here. Hurkacz’ footspeed means Dzumhur can score, but it would take an injury for Hurkacz to lose here. Hurkacz in 3-4.

Kecmanovic vs Shapovalov :

Whoa. The h2h here is 7-0 for Shapo. 5 of these have been deciding sets, but this is a rivalry that has been going Denis’ way for a very long time. I would actually guess that Kecmanovic is able to grind long enough to profit from Shapo’s errors and impatience, but I guess not. Shapo in 4. Kecmanovic hasn’t been playing well enough at all to justify cancelling the rivalry, and Denis just turned in a nice performance against Jodar (who is in the top ten favorites to win this event).

Norrie vs Van Assche :

If you like ten minute service games, this is the match for you. Their last three matches have all gone to the deciding set, and they’re actually fairly similar players. LVA has a really flat solid backhand, and a whippy forehand. He can start slow, but once he locks into a level from the baseline he is a wall and tends to win marathon matches. Norrie is basically the same, but lefty. There isn’t a quick path for either here, but I do think Norrie has a slightly more powerful serve, and he’s been showing isolated displays of his old level. I’m not expecting Norrie to get back to the top of the tour, but he has indicated in press that he is, and that desire is essential to back a player who needs focus and hustle to get the job done. Norrie in 4-5.

Carreño-Busta vs Lehecka :

PCB retired from his last match so this is not really knowable. Lehecka played well in the last few events, and when he’s hitting the court he’s decent. Lehecka in 3-4.

Samuel vs Machac :

Machac is 0-2 after returning from injury, and Samuel just had a great run in qualifying where he needed a third set to win each match. That’s not really inspiring stuff, but it means his stamina and level enters at a slightly higher tier than Machac has displayed. Healthy Machac is a top 20 player, but he hasn’t been healthy. Samuel in 4.

Harris L vs Kennedy :

Lloyd Harris absolutely befuddled Llamas Ruiz in the final round of qualifying. His serve was annoying, and his topspin made Ruiz miss over and over. If you were in the stands, you might have gotten to keep a ball or two. Kennedy is still a junior prospect so he won’t win here, but he has wins against Uchida and Broady recently so the future is bright. Harris in 3.

Fils vs Tsitsipas :

Tsitsipas’ backhand has gotten a tiny bit more consistent, but it is significantly worse than it used to be pre-slump. He has lost the ability to generate depth, so his game is entirely dependent on his legs and his forehand. These things work great, but it’s a lot of pressure and he’s no spring chicken anymore. Fils is playing at a very high level and just won Cincinnati, and his best thing for me is his consistent hitting in neutral rallies so Tsitsipas is likely going to have to play his absolute best to have a shot here. Fils in 3-4. He does tend to drop early sets.

Bublik vs Wolf :

JJ Wolf has been quietly playing some good tennis on the Challenger tour, and Bublik has not played since Kitzbuhel. Add in that Wolf is 3-0 on hardcourt against Bublik (albeit in 2023/22/19), and this is probably going to be tricky. Bublik is a better player and is much more seriously about his defense and shotmaking now, but no warmup events (pulled out of Cincinnati to attend a Cucumber Festival) makes be actually think Wolf can win this. It’s form vs ability here and that’s always very competitive early. If Wolf didn’t lead the h2h I’d like Bublik, but I expect Wolf in 3 or Bublik in 5.

Tirante vs Mannarino :

Tirante recently hit that level on his forehand where players are able to take full swings without worrying about missing the court. The only question here is how long he can stay there and will his backhand hold up. Mannarino hasn’t done much recently, but he’s always a tricky opponent so the patch of good play Tirante is in needs to continue for this to be simple. Tirante in 4.

Prizmic vs Shevchenko :

Tough spot for both, but winnable for both. Prizmic and Shevchenko’s hardcourt ceilings are pretty close for me. Prizmic is much better on clay, and he can play on hard but his power doesn’t mean as much. It’s also much tougher to take big rips on hard, and Shevchenko is pretty focused on extending rallies and making matches as grindy as possible. This requires Prizmic’s best tennis to avoid a 5th set, and we haven’t really seen that yet. I think he’ll win the early stretches of the match but his percentages might suffer from there. Prizmic in 4 of Shevchenko in 5 (#supercopoutprediction2026).

Paul vs Wong :

Coleman Wong was one of the most dominant performers in qualifying, and this is a tough draw. The two things that can go for Wong are his first serve and his backhand, and Tommy has a very solid backhand and is a pretty aggressive returner of seconds. Tommy was down and out against Vallejo in Cincinnati, but he came back and beat Hurkacz and Zverev in that event as well. My point I guess is that he can fumble sets, but in a long match he can find a way back in. Paul in 4.

Arnaldi vs Duckworth :

Duckworth is currently playing really well in Winston-Salem, so he almost makes me think he’ll win here. Duckworth is a grinder, but he serves really aggressively and he can spray errors and double faults at times. It’s hard for me to see him ever winning quickly, and Arnaldi is inconsistent but plays a good level from the baseline when he hits his level so this could go deep. While I was typing this Duckworth withdrew against Fery, so I’m not sure what happens here.

Wu vs Walton :

Walton is playing really well. I’m a big Wu Yibing fan but he’s had some recent losses that make him feel unreliable, and Walton plays very straightforward and consistent tennis so if you’re spraying errors he’s a tough out. Walton in 5.

Faria vs Brooksby :

Faria just beat Brooksby in Cincinnati, and I’d expect him to do it again. Faria is a claycourt guy, but he has big power on his groundstrokes and a pretty good service delivery. He reminds me of early Khachanov without the defense, and I think Brooksby hasn’t shown the type of defense yet that could profit from Faria’s impatience. Faria in 4.

Safiullin vs Alcaraz :

This is a tricky one. Alcaraz’s practice session is not usually something I watch, but I tuned in this week. It is pretty clear that his forehand production is not back to 100% yet in terms of power. He does have the ability to hit over it very nicely when it sits up, but the full swing forehand that puts a lot of torque on his wrist is something I didn’t see him hit often. He also missed a number of backhands. This doesn’t mean he can’t win, but I think he’s not going to be automatic here, and navigating a weakness while playing is tricky. Safiullin has the serving and power to be effective here, and has played some big matches against big names, but I think his rally tolerance and speed are a big issue against Alcaraz.

Carlitos (as he prefers to be called) really did himself a service with all the work he put in, because even in a subdued state it’s still hard to picture most players beating him. I expect him to get broken a few times in this match, and to have to rely on his legs to get him through, but I think Alcaraz is a guy who enjoys tennis and being back out there in front of a crowd will grant him a little focus. Beating Safiullin in 2025 would be just work. Beating Safiullin in 2026 is a slightly more fun task. Alcaraz in 3-4.