2026 US Open Men's Semifinals

Men’s Singles :

Zverev vs Khachanov :

There was a time back in 2016 when this was the matchup we’d all expect in future semifinals. Khachanov, Zverev, Medvedev, Thiem, Coric, and a few others were all starting to show great promise, and pundits started to call them the next gen. All of the players had great results, but it didn’t really go according to plan for any of them. Khachanov became a second week regular in majors, but could never really look like a threat to beat the top players. Zverev had promise because of his Masters 1000 results against players like Federer and Nadal, but his talent/athleticism/hard work have been dragging him forward. He does not really appear to understand the game well, and even though he finally got a major and has a great career on paper, many still see it as a story of underachievement. Medvedev wasn’t really expected to become a huge thing because of his frame, but he arguably did the best of all of them. While some of the others fizzled and cracked under pressure, Medvedev maxed out his results by focusing on the aspects of his game he could control.

That leaves Thiem and Coric. Thiem did everything you could want him to do, and also did so while playing visually entertaining tennis. I felt he’d wind up as a Federer type whose emphasis on drilling and precision made him an offensive terror, but he didn’t get a chance to get there. The heir apparent on clay got a little bit robbed, but I’d say he backed up all expectations. Coric, hmm. I firmly believe that no one on tour ever wore tighter shirts than Coric, but having to remove your gear with a scissor after matches is probably very costly for your sponsor. My point here (if I have one) is that this semifinal is both unexpected and expected based on when you float the idea of it. At the beginning of this year absolutely not. 2016 sure probably. Zverev is always a consistent performer at majors, but Khachanov really looked like he was sliding towards retirement as his focus turned to family and his results started to fizzle. Both seem healthy for this though, and since it’s likely a golden opportunity unlikely to arise again, I think we get a good match.

Khachanov wasn’t at his best against Blockx, but I think part of the plan was to wear Blockx down. Not giving your opponent any big hope or errors to work with can make your own game smaller, but Blockx was clearly injured the round before and ended up having to retire down 2 sets. Zverev also turned in a half-assed performance in terms of shot selection against Botic, but I think that was because it was the second best path to the win. The best is obviously playing well and running through your opponent with crisp offense, but if you can assuredly outlast your opponent as long as you don’t miss, then hitting the court and dragging your way through works. Botic really never looked like he wanted to put in 5 hours and rally, and he was generally the one who bailed out of rallies with an offensive attempt. Zverev said “here prove it” but added “prove it 300 times in the next 3 hours”. It was a good gameplan.

Zverev and Khachanov have played a lot, and most of the matches have gone to Zverev. He does everything a bit bigger than Khachanov, but just by a little. Khachanov’s edge might be in the forehand, as he hits his with more depth generally, but it’s not such a dominant exchange that I think he’ll win the match with it. Khachanov’s best play so far was against Tien, where he really hit well on offense consistently in the 4th, but I think Learner hits a small ball than Zverev on average. What I expect from this is a very close match because of Zverev’s passive shot selection. I don’t think he can just turn it up automatically, and Khachanov is familiar with the matchup. I expect a lot of rallies that look generic on tv, but in person you will see that they’re both hitting the ball as heavy as they can to prevent their opponent from playing offense. Big serves, a lot of grinding, and for me I think the main offense is going to be down the line from both. Both have great wingspan and move well, both have extremely solid backhands, and I think Khachanov’s technique will break down first in neutral rallies, but Zverev’s will when he’s on offense. Zverev in 5. Khachanov has a few random wins against Zverev including 2025 Toronto, and he’s coming in fresh. So far Zverev has had an extremely easy draw and he’s managed to go to 5 with Halys and Sonego who would be losing to Karen’s current level. I do think Zverev still wins because he is better, and Khachanov has to basically redline for a long duration just to get to the finish line. It’s hard to do that and maintain your timing and technique, especially since he has a very extreme Western grip.

Shelton vs Tiafoe :

Before the 5th set against Shelton, there was a lot of buzz about his chances. I remember saying that if he was to win, it would mean that we’d witness one of the best sets of tennis in recent history. Alcaraz’s level at the end of that match was incredible. He had ironed out the forehand issues that he had early in the match, and he had eclipsed the “his wrist/forearm might be fatigued” concerns I had. Ben proceeded to play one of the most clutch sets of tennis you will ever see. The sheer number of “you must win this point or you lose the match” situations that he had to hit a second serve in are insane, and he came up with pace and spin on those deliveries that were so unique and impressive. Alcaraz’s returning wasn’t exactly perfect at the end, but he put himself in position to win over and over and Shelton came through. There were dozens of serves I rewinded multiple times to watch. Shelton is removing all “flat” descriptions from his delivery. Everything has a great volume of spin, and it makes me think that maybe he’s adjusted his delivery slightly because of the shoulder soreness. If he has, he has finally come full circle to be able to serve effectively again with a technique that’s more about spin and deception. I just cannot say enough about the timing of his use of the body serve and his poise in that 5th. That was point blank one of the most entertaining matches I have seen since the big 3 era. Up there with Tiafoe Alcaraz from 2022. It is a well deserved win for Ben, but job’s not done.

Shelton has the tricky task of resetting after a major life moment. Beating Alcaraz in that stadium was a Super Bowl type moment, and it’s easy to have a big adrenaline dump after that, or to feel satisfied. You also have established a very high level, but for your opponent, the draw always gets easier after you take out the top player. The doubts are replaced with hopes, and while hope and fear are both phantoms that come from thinking of the self (Lao Tzu), hopes take longer to burst in sport. Tiafoe will know that he can compete with Ben on this stage, and he’s been playing very well lately. Tiafoe is through after his own heroic 5 set win, but his was in the form of a lengthy comeback. Michelsen played 3 of the best sets I’ve seen from him ever to start to match, and if he continues playing at this level he’s going to find himself in the top 10 by midway next season. Tiafoe really didn’t have momentum until late in the third when Michelsen was broken serving for the match, but that is a pretty classic Frances move. He is uniquely able to grab breaks down a set and a break in the 2/3 events, so why not here. Michelsen still played well after that and could have won, but he was no longer perfect from the baseline. He occasionally missed an offensive attempt, and Tiafoe was able to score on him in long rallies.

For me, Tiafoe was better leading into that round, but Ben displayed the higher level by a good bit in the quarters. They also just met in the Washington finals, with both near their best, and Shelton won in straight sets. I think Tiafoe can win similar points that Alcaraz did off Shelton’s backhand. Shelton has turned in some good performances against Sinner and Alcaraz, but almost every set-ending shot has been a backhand put into the net. He’s improved on that wing and he’s able to focus more than he used to be, but the swing is still a bit too small and quick to avoid errors. I’ll leave it to a professional coach to say exactly what’s wrong with it, but it feels to me like a small amount of error can result in the ball sailing on Ben or dipping low. Tiafoe can isolate this with his forehand, and it should be successful. No he doesn’t hit as hard as Alcaraz, but the errors I don’t think are player dependent. It’s just a wing that can break down every 10-15 shots. 

For Shelton, I think the plan is simple. Tiafoe can be a little passive on defense and tends to outlast opponents, and he started pretty slow against Michelsen. Shelton is much faster around the court than Alex, and he’s in great shape so I think any lead is something he can hang onto. Ben can get into trouble forcing the issue, but I think the Alcaraz match helped him massively correct this. Alcaraz started to look winded in the 2nd, and he was making some curious forehand errors. Shelton for one of the first times in these big matchups had to lock in and play consistent rather than go for his shots, and he did so. The Alcaraz lapse or injury or fatigue was the spot where Shelton needed to ask the question, and he did so. Even when Alcaraz turned back up, Shelton didn’t drop that mode of always looking to see if Carlos would miss, and that’s something that I think improves his base level immediately.

I like Shelton here in 4. Tiafoe is capable of winning this match and it’s going to involve a ton of highlight rallies and exceptional shotmaking, but I think Shelton’s serve is a bit bigger on average, and his forehand is also. Tiafoe has the better backhand, but I think Shelton is more focused on hitting to the open court with his forehand than he is on grinding away in traditional lefty patterns.