2026 US Open Men's Finals

Men’s Singles :

Zverev vs Shelton :

So far in my finals analysis I have written the phrase “idk” about 40 times. I am starting to believe it. One of the most peculiar US Opens in quite some time has arrived at the end-point, and I firmly believe there is enough data in both directions to make this truly up for grabs. The player who rises to the occasion on the day is going to hoist a huge title and have incredible momentum going into the 2027 season, and with Sinner’s recovery nearing and Alcaraz looking like he will return quickly to his best form, the player who loses will have a potentially long wait to get another shot at a major.

Since this feels very close, I will just break down my research for this. First, the semifinals. Zverev and Khachanov felt close, but every set that Zverev won made the finish line feel much further away than the distance it was. Zverev’s conservative play has been one of the weaknesses in his game, but it becomes palpable how much work you will have to do to make a comeback. Since there wasn’t much margin in the sets won, it felt like a Khachanov comeback would take 3-4 hours and he would have to be very clutch. Karen hit a good level late against Tien, but when your opponent hits bigger than you (Zverev), it’s much harder to control rallies as often as he did against Learner.

Khachanov could potentially have won both tiebreakers (up a minibreak at one point in both), so while it was a straight sets win, it wasn’t exactly dominant. Zverev dragged through this match the way he did against Botic, and I think this is either his actual level, or a solid game plan. His team has to know that he wins a large % of the time if he doesn’t make a lot of unforced errors, so playing secure and just challenging your opponent to come up with a whole match of offense is a good route to success. That gets you to the finals with a weak draw, but I’m not sure if it gets you Grand Slam titles. There is always someone in the draw whose tennis is peaking, and I think that (at times) has been Shelton. So for Zverev, B+ progression through the draw, but I’m not really seeing a level of tennis that will be dominant.

Shelton vs Tiafoe was pretty much guaranteed to have fireworks, but it was a little bit flat at times. Tiafoe and Shelton both looked a little less than warmed up at the start and Tiafoe seemed to be fighting a bit of arm fatigue. Shelton was making backhand errors, and not really locked in on defense. Tiafoe was a bit sharper and returning well, and he won the first set. The second saw Shelton hint at the range of play he had against Alcaraz. He started to land some forehands, and he was able to break Tiafoe in back to back games. Stretches of hot play can happen, but in the men’s tour when you get broken, break back, and then go down 0-40, it feels like you are not getting momentum back anytime soon. Both players were scoring most effectively when they took their forehands down the line, and it’s funny to watch them both look to hide their backhands so much that they leave the same shot open. Shelton won in 4 which is solid, but he had a little help. It was not Tiafoe’s best performance, and he shanked a decent number of forehands at inopportune times.

As far as the gameplan, Tiafoe sent the ball to Shelton’s backhand repeatedly, and this was pretty successful until halfway through the match. Shelton wasn’t immediately surrendering the point, but when Tiafoe hit his forehand cross it felt like there was no shot Ben could hit that would score or get control back. This “there is no escape from this” feeling takes a lot of patience and resolve to navigate, because the idea of trying to force offense is always tempting. The bright point I felt was late in the match. Shelton’s backhand absolutely caught fire in the last few games and he was able to hit sharp angles cross-court, but the big news was that he was able to play solid on that wing when he needed to. He did the same thing against Alcaraz when he needed it, and I think these matches are presenting moments where he wants to win so bad he will do whatever physical and mental work it takes to focus and hit his backhand in the court. You need this ability to dig in and ensure consistency in order to win big titles, and I’d say the hallmark of the big 4 was their ability to stay alert and maintain a level. Djokovic is able to find consistent depth and really turn tennis into what looks like table tennis for him. Nadal is able to follow the ball and defend and grind and basically eliminate errors or breaks in pressure (for his opponent) in the match. Federer was able to consistently come up with one more creative shot no matter how many times you returned the ball, but without forcing the issue or being afraid to hit probing slices or reset shots. This stuff immediately tests how long your opponent can focus for, and if they haven’t been getting the reps and working on raising their mental endurance, you tend to just start outlasting everyone. As a result, I think these pressure moments and close matches are incredibly good for Shelton’s development.

Shelton won his semifinal and played a good level, but it wasn’t exactly the level he displayed against Alcaraz for a good stretch of the match. He is in incredible shape and I don’t expect him to gas out in the finals, but I wonder if he’ll be able to start quickly, and how he is feeling after a long two weeks. He also has put in a ton more work than Zverev. If Sonego / Halys / Tabilo / Darderi / Van De Zandschulp / Khachanov play a team competition against Griekspoor / Hurkacz / Shapovalov / Tsitsipas / Alcaraz / Tiafoe, who wins? The tricky questions will start at this point. Does Shelton’s draw leave him much sharper than Zverev because he’s been more battle tested? Or does Zverev’s relatively calm path through the draw leave him fresher and able to redline sooner and more often. I genuinely think that this is a server’s battle, and Zverev being fresh when Shelton has started to rely more and more on spin and less on flat power can give a slight boost to Zverev.

Let’s talk price. After the semis, I expected Zverev to be about -200 against Shelton. He’s 5-0 against him, and while Shelton has improved every season, all 5 of these meetings are within the last 2 years. Zverev won their first meeting in Cincinnati in 2024, and I watched this match for reference just to see how far Shelton has come. Shelton and Zverev both had an awfully difficult time returning that day, but Shelton’s backhand was really rough. He tended to miss routine balls, and went with the chip and charge play too often. Since then, Zverev has not dropped a set to Shelton. They had a tiebreaker at the world tour finals last season, but he beat him 2,2 in Cincinnati before that. Zverev is also 88-18 against lefties. I can discount some of this because his record is not as good against lefties in the top ten, but his backhand basically negates a lot of their generic patterns so it is a big concern for Shelton. After all this pretty dominant statistical evidence, Zverev still opened at just -156. This was actually about their price in Cincinnati, but at 5-0 and well rested, -156 is not really a dominant open.

After seeing this price, I dug a little bit into the idea that Shelton might win. When we expect something, we see signs that verify it, but there is some interesting stuff here. My question here was who is going to step up in the finals. Since Zverev has proffered up some very passive and tentative performances in big moments, I wanted to see how Shelton fares in them. Shelton is 7-2 in tour finals, and while he lost to Zverev in the Munich finals (clay), the list of who he beat is very interesting.

2023 Japan Open (Tokyo, Hard): Defeated Aslan Karatsev 2024 U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship (Houston, Clay): Defeated Frances Tiafoe 2025 National Bank Open (Toronto, Hard / Masters 1000): Defeated Karen Khachanov 2026 Dallas Open (Dallas, Hard): Defeated Taylor Fritz 2026 National Bank Open (Montreal, Hard / Masters 1000): Defeated Brandon Nakashima 2026 Stuttgart Open (Stuttgart, Grass): Defeated Taylor Fritz 2026 BMW Open (Munich, Clay): Defeated Flavio Cobolli

None of these guys are big 3 caliber players, but all of those are names of people who are a very tough out in those spots. If any of them are playing well enough to make the finals at those particular events, their games have to be tough to overcome, and Shelton got it done. Working in Shelton’s favor also is that his level is brand new. I felt like he dished out some very middling performances this season, but he has improved every year on tour. The tennis he’s playing this fortnight is his best level ever, and his defending is what has improved the most. While I was watching Alcaraz play Shelton I was pretty sure there was little to no way for Zverev to beat Alcaraz, so why doubt the guy who beat the guy?

This leads more into the “moment” debate. Zverev is a generational choke artist. He’s been playing solid but mediocre. He already went to 5 with two players who have an offense but shouldn’t be in a fifth with him. His match with Khachanov was straight sets, but it did not hit anywhere near the level that Alcaraz/Shelton did. The last small note I will offer for Shelton’s side is the crowd. He can be a little cringe at times, but the US Open crowd is one of the most vaguely poorly behaved crowds in tennis. Many people feel completely comfortable overlooking tennis etiquette because Zverev makes a good villain, and they will be rabid to support Shelton. With his playstyle and ability, they don’t even have to manufacture this support. He will give them chances to cheer and he will fight for this title. With the price, his finals record, his newfound consistency, and the crowd, it does really make a good case for this to be a winnable match for Shelton.

The Zverev side has already been somewhat spelled out with the lefty stats and his record against Shelton, and the question is how far that needle has moved. Shelton has improved, but his backhand errors are not really player dependent. Everyone he’s played has gotten a handful of rally-ball errors, and going to that wing has looked like a safe plan. Zverev’s height and two-hander makes him a good returner against lefty servers, and his serve is probably up there with Ben’s. Tiafoe was competitive early, and honestly Zverev is a much trickier out for Shelton in rallies because he’s not really looking to open up angles the way Tiafoe is. Early on in their matches (although I only watched a set from an old one and the recent Cincinnati) Shelton was also scoring consistently on Zverev with the wide serve from the ad side, and he doesn’t really hit the huge angle on this one as often anymore. This serve makes Zverev go from a two-hander to a one handed slice return quite often, and Zverev really doesn’t hit this shot well or make the transition quick enough. Ben also isn’t up the huge pace on T serves anymore. His move towards pace changes and huge spin is really exciting to watch, but I wonder how he fares against Zverev’s backhand returning with this. I should note that Shelton is still capable of dialing up the big pace on his serves, it just is more of a special occasion thing.

Zverev being tall makes him a little bit more capable of getting kick serves back in play, and Shelton is hitting a lot of these lately. Zverev also hits his backhand down the line well, and while it isn’t hit to score in neutral rallies, I don’t really think Shelton is going to trade backhands down the line with him too successfully without errors. That means when Shelton goes cross-court, Zverev can escape down the line with his backhand, and the equation then becomes his forehand against Shelton’s backhand. Zverev isn’t hitting clean winners with his forehand, but his safe shot selection almost traps Ben in the same exchanges that Tiafoe did, and Zverev is fresher so he won’t shank as many as Tiafoe did.

So really, I think the match hinges on Shelton’s backhand and Zverev’s ability to return on his forehand wing. Both will be able to hold pretty consistently, and I would expect 2 or more tiebreakers because of the tension and adrenaline (these things don’t really promote returning, and the flow of high profile matches can feel very sped up and disjointed due to the added crowd cheer time and the importance of each point). I started off not exactly sure who’d win, and I am still there, but this is probably the best I can explain the match. tl;dr Shelton already beat players better than or competitive with Zverev, but this matchup in particular is a “prove it” moment. I will gladly see Ben do it, and I am reminded somewhat of the Shapo Zverev AO 2022 match where Zverev pushed and Shapo ran away with things. Still, “prove it” is a tough task, and Shelton’s level against Tiafoe may have lost to Zverev. I also loved his play against Alcaraz, but Alcaraz put himself in trouble by playing a somewhat error prone level in the 2nd and 3rd sets. Carlos also put himself in position to win numerous times in the 5th set, so there is a small part of me that thinks Zverev being a better server and maybe a more constant test of his percentages will make things tough.

Go Shelton, but I am leaning towards Zverev winning this in 5. He can match Shelton in the serving department, and then his grinding push-mode tennis will apply pressure when he is able to get into return games. I also somewhat think that other opponents were anxious to escape their backhand exchanges when Shelton hit his forehand cross-court, and Zverev will probably be fine sitting in these. The good news is that if Shelton wins, it will be a highlight reel performance, because he’ll have to use his mind and hit a ton of forehand winners.

Ty all for reading, I’ll be posting a recap of the finals/tournament Monday and then I’ll be sleeping for three days. Ty for all the corrections, notes, differing opinions, etc. Trying to understand tennis is a work on progress and all that stuff helps massively.

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