2026 Roland Garros Women's Round Three - Saturday Matches 🐢

Sabalenka vs Kasatkina :

This is a match that has been played many many times. Prior to her mini-slump, Kasatkina was one of the top players on tour and regularly met Sabalenka late in events. The first set was often close, but Sabalenka really dominated the matchup. Kasatkina’s game is predicated on being able to move her opponent and frustrate them into errors, but her ball is hit hit heavy enough to keep Sabalenka from leaning on it. Sabalenka also takes good advantage of Kasatkina’s serve. The bright side here for Kasatkina is that Jacquemot was very competitive against Sabalanka, but the downside is that Sabalenka’s level tends to vary from round to round. I think this is Sabalenka in two. She may get frustrated at Kasatkina’s defending and accurate shots, but she just isn’t under a lot of pressure here.

Jovic vs Osaka :

I was researching this and actually was surprised that Osaka is still ranked so high. 16 in the world is excellent, and her keeping her focus and winning on clay is also. A round ago, I might have liked Naomi in this matchup. Things change quickly though, and Jovic turned in her best performance thus far on clay in the third round. Navarro had beaten her in a 3 set clash in Strasbourg, but she was barely able to win games in this one. Jovic won 0,3 and it looked as if she was finally figuring out her timing on clay. The slight timing errors being gone would make her a whole lot more effective from the baseline, and might outweigh the slight softening of her pace that clay puts into place.

Osaka is playing decent, and her serve makes this tricky. A lot of Jovic’s losses have been to bigger hitters, so Osaka’s hard hitting should make some inroads here where Navarro couldn’t. The flipside is that Osaka probably is the more erratic of the two. Peak Osaka (who has made some appearances this season) can blast through this match, but I think it’s necessary against an opponent who is coming in confident. Osaka only won 37% of her second serves last round, and I think Jovic will be a significant problem in that department also. Jovic in 2 close sets.

Mboko vs Keys :

Mboko went the traditional tennis favorite route of dropping the first and reeling her opponent back in, but it was a very tense match. Mboko was a bit better when she dug in on defense, but she had trouble defending her serve. Siniakova’s heavy topspin approach really seemed to bother Mboko and it’s something opposing coaches will make a note of. Overall, I just think Mboko’s swings are not well suited for clay so she’s a little more error prone due to trying to add extra oomph to shots. This is my main reasoning for picking Keys here. Keys isn’t really a clay specialist by any means, but her style of ballstrking is more suited to the courts, and she can match Mboko in the serving department. In any Keys match, there is the caveat that she can get impatient and spray errors, but at a major you would expect her to be a little more focused. Keys in 2.

Shnaider vs Oliynikova :

This is a heavier match than most. Oliynikova has been vocal in press about the invasion of and war being waged on Ukraine by Russia. She indicated that Shnaider has been somewhat supportive of this on social media, and pointed out that she participated in the Gazprom event. Ukrainian athletes are not shaking hands with Russian opponents, but this seems a bit more amplified. I don’t really think it’s my place to analyze that aspect, and it honestly feels like it would be better not to be approaching a match like “hmm, this person actively dislikes this other person I wonder how it will affect their game.” If you want my political opinions, I am happy to offer them, but no situation in this world is simple, and the more you say the more that remains unsaid. Experts in topics like armed conflict march out 1,000 page books when they want to discuss something seriously, and I think a lot of the negative and unhealthy discourse in the online sphere is because people attempt to approach complex subjects with limited knowledge and in short-form discussion which falls massively short of understanding, and also massively short of being productive for either party.

As far as the tennis, this is a tricky match for both. Shnaider has the power to actually hit through Oliynikova, but can have some stamina issues and some issues with unforced errors. These tend to come late in sets. Oliynikova is one of the more ornate pushers on tour. She’s a very good defender, but doesn’t have a lot of pace on the ball. She uses a lot of slices and moonballs, and has excellent dropshots. It all hinges on how much defense she can play here. If she’s able to put back most of the early stuff Shnaider brings, she can make life very tricky at the end of sets. Everyone can hit cleanly at 2-2, but at 5-5 30-30 it’s hard to tee off on slices and moonballs and the deceleration will give Oliynikova time to ply her craft. I still think Shnaider wins in 2, but this is a tricky spot and likely an uncomfortable spot for both of them.

Potapova vs Gauff :

Gauff is expected to win this, but I don’t think it will be easy at all. A quick look at the h2h shows Potapova has won the last two meetings, including one on clay. These matches were in 2023, but Potapova was worse then. Potapova has been crushing the ball and playing so tenaciously that she’s almost becoming consistent, and I think there will be a lot of pressure on Gauff’s mechanics here. The backhand is rock-solid, but her forehand can get wobbly, and if Potapova is hitting big on returns, Gauff’s first serve percentage will matter. I wasn’t impressed by Potapova’s three set win against Boulter, but it wasn’t bad tennis either. Gauff has been in excellent form, but I’m not really one to ignore h2hs, especially when they’re a bit surprising. This is Gauffs toughest match this week by a lot and I think she may be under pressure for a stretch of games. I say this only because Potapova tends to swing big until she finds her range. She’s a bit like Fils in this regard. She may drop a set due to some errors, but she’ll keep working on it until she gets into a groove. Gauff in 3. I don’t think Potapova will be able to close out, but her aggressive returning has proven to be an issue for Gauff in the past.

Osorio vs Kalinskaya :

Kalinskaya is often the more consistent player, and her I think she’s pushed out of that role which will be interesting. For Anna, being a steady baseliner who also hits the ball a bit bigger than most players who fit that role makes her a matchup nightmare. Here, Osorio is very used to being outhit, and I think Kalinskaya’s percentages will matter a lot here. She’s just defeated Korneeva in two, but she was 17/39 winners to unforced errors and I think that spells a loss here. Since Osorio isn’t really dominant in rallies, it should take a long time for her to get the win. Osorio in 3.

Sakkari vs Chwalinska :

Lazily, I will now board the Chwalinska train. Beating Zheng was impressive, and beating Mertens is even more so due to how consistent she can be. Sakkari might actually be her simplest match so far, but it’s a slightly different stylistic challenge. “Nastypav” on reddit called the Chwalinska Mertens matchup perfectly. They explained that Mertens does better with pace to redirect, and that Chwalinska doesn’t give you that. I love the r/tennis sub because they know tennis, and I learned a lesson there. This Sakkari match is a bit different because Sakkari hits with a bit more shape on her forehand, and because she’s way less consistent but more physical than Mertens. She was able to outlast Liu in three exciting sets, and it’s a spot she’d normally be very happy about. For me, Sakkari’s errors aren’t connected to anything. She can get impatient and play dropshots, but she just has mechanical issues on both wings that lead to her snatching at the ball sometimes. With Chwalinska being lefty and looping the ball very often, I think Sakkari’s backhand will have a long day. Maybe it takes a while to wear her down, but I expect Chwalinska to notch another straight set win.

Parry vs Anisimova :

The Parry party is in full swing, and I’m glad to see it. Diane Parry has a super smooth game, and she deserves this spot as she completely flabbergasted Ann Li. Ann has been playing really solid, but Parry made her implode in very confusing fashion. It’s a testament to the unique skill that Parry possesses. This next round doesn’t seem doable to me, but who knows how durable Anisimova is right now after a layoff. She’s been clinical against every opponent, and Parry can have trouble landing first serves and also leaves her topspin backhand short at times which spells trouble. This will be about Anisimova’s percentages, and thus far she’s been quite good. Anisimova in one close and one blowout set.