2026 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Semifinals 🐢

Men’s Singles :

Arnaldi vs Cobolli :

Somewhat anti-climactic end to Berrettini’s run at Roland Garros. It was great to see him playing well, but halfway through the 2nd set against Arnaldi he sprained a muscle in his right leg and was unable to continue. Arnaldi was up 7-5, 5-2 so it wasn’t necessarily the whole reason for the win, but Berrettini has dealt with a bunch of injuries and time off tour in the past few seasons so this must have been frustrating. Hopefully he’s able to heal by Wimbledon, as he’ll have a decent chance of making a run there also with his serve and backhand slice. For now, Arnaldi has completely resurrected his career in the space of just a single month. He’s up to 34 in the live rankings, and considering how solid he can be on hardcourt, he can potentially stay in the top 50 for quite some time. Getting into the top 100 pretty much guarantees that your expenses for the year are paid by the 1st round prize money at the 4 majors, and being seeded at some of the M1000s and smaller events can really provide a cushion that keeps players on tour for a long time. This is a well-earned result, and it’s not necessarily over.

Arnaldi had spent the most time on court of any player heading into the quarters, so a quick forfeit is exactly what he needed. He played the equivalent of a heavy practice session, and he’ll have a day to recover. The next round is also uniquely familiar to him. If you’re looking for data on a matchup, this one delivers. Arnaldi and Cobolli have played 5 times already, and all 5 have been on clay. The matchups in 2021/22 were all three setters, and after Cobolli won the first, Arnaldi won their next three meetings. This includes a 2-0 win in 2023, but this was around the time that Cobolli’s offense wasn’t really together yet and Arnaldi had become a staple on tour. I had written a bit about how it seemed Italian tennis had a gauntlet or orb or something that only one player could use at a time, and Arnaldi had given it to Cobolli. It’s great to see that they now both possess orbs. Orbs 4 all. The most recent meeting was last season at this exact tournament. Cobolli won a fairly comfortable 4 set match (6-3,6-3, 6-7, 6-1). I gave Cobolli an excuse for the 2023 result, and I’ll offer one to Arnaldi here also. He really was not at his best last year, and he lost his timing and depth control on his forehand and backhand for long stretches.

It’s always a bit confusing to watch someone who’s clearly trying hard and training just shank balls and struggle, but that seems to be a thing on tour. The slumps can drag on, and the hardest round in many events is often the first because the pace of play is so intense. Even if you have a lot of variety of skill, players are often hitting the ball a bit too big to really utilize that. This is another reason that Arnaldi’s new ranking is a huge boost for him. As a baseliner who tends to wear players down, he doesn’t have a huge edge against a lot of the 50-100 guys in an early round. The baseliners are fresh and can hang in with him, and the offenses are fresh and can hang onto their serves enough to be fairly competitive in the scoreline.

So far this event, Cobolli and Mensik have displayed the highest level of tennis. Arnaldi has been dragging his way through matches; admirably so, but not in a dominant way. Cobolli has been very organized and barely dropping sets. He lost the first to FAA, and I thought he’d win up in a 5th, but he was way more efficient with and way more careful with the ball today. FAA indicated in press that he’s not really feeling like he’s become the player he thought he would. I would agree, but I think the issues are very clear. He isn’t careful enough with the ball on big points, and his backhand is one of the worst of the top ten. The first one is something his coaches need to hammer home. There was a break point today where he got a forehand to work with on the return. He quickly went behind Cobolli with big pace and depth. It was a nice attempt, and would have scored, but it landed 5-6 inches long.

This uniform approach to big points something that I feel Shapovalov does also. They tend to play quickly on these points, and remain as aggressive at 0-0 as they are at 30-40. Honestly, you can’t do that. Nadal was a guy who played every point the same and was often aggressive in those situations, but that’s fine when you’re extremely consistent. When you’re a big hitter, you need to play a little more measured on big points, especially because when you’re a big hitter your opponent is likely to be less proactive on defense. They’re looking to make sure they make balls, so even if you don’t rip everything you’re likely to get a look at another shot. There was a break point later where Felix went for a backhand down the line to end the point. Yes, Cobolli was in the backhand corner on the other side, but it’s a shot FAA doesn’t have and the ball wasn’t a setup. It’s fine to go down the line with your backhand, and you should play this shot often enough to keep your opponent honest, but you have to be realistic on break points. Your opponent is absolutely happy to see you trying to play creative tennis in those spots, and it made Cobolli’s job easy.

To his credit, Flavio played really well today. He served well, and he didn’t miss much when he had control of the rally on his forehand. Closing the roof probably should have helped Felix, but he didn’t have it today. I would also note that the main court has become extremely slow in this second week. It was most noticeable first in the Cirstea Andreeva match, and it has remained that way. This is now a different event, and in some ways Felix’s run was in trouble in the second week no matter who he played. I don’t mean to diminish Cobolli’s win with that; he was incredible, I just want to note the different conditions.

For this semi, I do expect Cobolli to keep the run going. Arnaldi gets a day off, but he hasn’t exactly found quick ways through matches. Cobolli is completely fresh, having only dropped two sets, and he’s playing some of his best tennis. Arnaldi will want to avoid forehand exchanges here and isolate Cobolli’s backhand. Given their match history, I would not expect a shutout for Cobolli. Arnaldi is a better defender than Felix and has a way better backhand. The downside is that he doesn’t serve as well as Felix, so his service games will likely be under a lot of pressure. Cobolli (to me) is as good defensively as Arnaldi, and is serving better and playing more aggressively right now. Given his win against Zverev earlier in Munich, it would set up a very intriguing potential final. Cobolli in 4.

Zverev vs Mensik :

Zverev comes in here as an almost 5 to 1 favorite, and I haven’t really seen something that would justify that so far. He’s been cruising through this draw and play some good ball, but there are still some issues with his game. He’s leaving his forehand short quite often, and he’s playing 6 feet behind the baseline. This is the depth he’s comfortable hitting the ball full from, and his serve keeps him somewhat safe, but these things have been exploitable in the past. To me, he looks very susceptible to the dropshot when he’s playing forehands. Also, Zverev and Mensik just played in Madrid and the score was 6-5, 6-7, 6-3 for Zverev. Madrid is faster and does benefit servers a bit so I would probably remove a game or two from Mensik, but that was at a time where Mensik was not really playing his best.

Last round, Mensik turned in his best performance so far. He was an actual wall, and it stalled the run of one of the more impressive players in the tournament. Fonseca grinded away and kept trying to break Mensik down, but Jakub moved and defended incredibly well, and he was very efficient dealing with the dropshots. During big points, Fonseca wound up hammering away and Mensik was content to lift the ball and just try to create depth. It worked over and over as Fonseca eventually made errors, or went to dropshots which were decent quality but were summarily dealt with. Mensik’s volleys and net approaches were near perfect, his defense was stifling, and he was able to score time and time again with his T serve. It was also a straight set win which gives him some reprieve from the marathons he played against Navone and Rublev earlier in the tournament.

So, where does Zverev win? I think there are two small things he does that Fonseca didn’t. One, he gets better balls to work with from his serving. Late in the match it became a real issue, but Fonseca really was unable to hit a serve that Mensik couldn’t put into play with decent pace and depth. Zverev’s delivery is much higher and makes it a lot harder for Mensik to generate depth. In Madrid, their serving stats were pretty similar (80/81% first serves M/Z), but that shift here gives Zverev a chance to remain fresher as sets progress. Mensik is capable of holding serve and making this contest very interesting, but the other slight difference is Zverev’s reach. Tall people aren’t instantly better returners, but their height/reach makes them able to put a racquet on more things. Mensik’s T serve is worth sitting on, and Zverev’s coaches will have instructed him to do so on the duece side. Zverev is notorious for not listening to his coaches, but this is a Grand Slam semifinal so he may be willing to swallow his pride.

Mensik should be fine in rallies early in the match. He has a very compact and consistent backhand which won the war of attrition against Fonseca. Commentators complain that he drops the racquet on his forehand and tends to muscle through it rather than having a fluid swing, but he has somewhat mastered this technique. Additionally, Zverev’s forehand is not hit with such depth cross-court that it will apply pressure here. The worry for me as this progresses is that they’re fairly equal offensively, and Zverev has the fitness edge. Tiebreaker and serve-heavy sets aren’t the most taxing, but the likelihood of Mensik’s body breaking down first is strong. Zverev can win by holding serve and winning close sets, and he can also win by grinding away. His particular style of play is somewhat careful and passive, and this will force Mensik to supply the offense if he starts to fatigue.

In the end, I think Mensik is actually ready to compete at this level. I would have thought Fonseca could win a set and be competitive in the early goings, and I think Mensik is a bit physically stronger than him and also more consistent on defense. There was a slight scare last match where Mensik’s left glute seemed problematic, but he said it was just muscle tightness. I’m expecting an absolute classic here. Mensik will have to use the dropshot a little more often in order to really create doubt in Zverev’s head, but it should be worth the price of admission. Zverev remains my pick because I think he can hold serve often enough to get to the point in the match where Mensik gets tired, but I think it’ll take a long time to get there. Zverev in 4-5.

Women’s Singles :

Shnaider vs Chwalinska :

Sign me up for a Chwalinska jersey. I have doubted her for too long. FOR TOO LONG! This is a very surprising semifinals, and after the Zheng and Mertens result I really should have seen half of it coming. Zipping players of their caliber is really solid, and since then he draw has gotten a bit easier. Speaking of zipping players, Shnaider has arrived in the semifinals after shutting out Aryna Sabalenka in the third set of their quarter. It is hard to say much positive about any of Sabalenka’s losses. We can point to the windy conditions, but the losses seem to come out of nowhere. She’ll be playing really well for a few rounds, then fumble a simpler spot. It’s impossible to be automatic on tour and every opponent you face deep in an event is at a high level, but losing from a set and 4-1 up in a tournament where all your toughest opposition has crashed out is a wild turn of events. Sabalenka said she felt like quitting tennis in press, and I don’t think this is dramatic. There is a natural tendency to just not want to do something anymore after it crushes you. I play a sport sort of at a high level and after most tournament losses there is a good 60-120 seconds where I am like “f this, I quit, I’m not even having fun, why am I doing this” etc etc. Everyone has a different refractory period, so I’m sure Sabalenka will be fine emotionally. These lapses though are a tough thing to coach because they seem so random, and Sabalenka seems to become very impatient and resigned to her fate in these spots so it has to be tough for her coaches to help.

For now, it’s the Shnaider and Chwalinska show. So far Chwalinska has stumped all her opponents with high looping forehands and efficient shot selection on her backhand. It worked nicely against Kaliskaya last round, and even poked her enough to make a vaguely grumpy comment in press. She pointed out that Chwalinska has only played clay mostly, and that now that she’s ranked high (30th in the live rankings) she has to play other surfaces. Kalinskaya added that she would like a rematch on hard or grass. It didn’t seem massively spicy, but as the main clip from her press conference it did seem a little silly. Since I’ve struggled to understand Chwalinska results so far, I went for some outside help. Gill (DC Analyst and lovely fellow) pointed out that Chwalinska’s opponents thus far have struggled to supply their own pace, and this has led to errors. Shnaider (his ideas not mine/am dumb) is very good at this, and seems to prefer having time for a full swing. This also is a lefty vs lefty battle, so a lot of Chwalinska’s routine patterns are a bit less effective. So for the 4th time, I will doubt Chwalinska.

These two met once before in 2022, and Shnaider won 6-4 6-4. This one will almost certainly be closer, because Chwalinska’s dropshot-heavy approach coupled with her forehand accuracy will expose Shnaider’s slightly slow movement. There has also been a trend on the tennis tour for a long time of players struggling to back up their level after a huge win. Beating Sabalenka is a huge win, and it’s hard not to feel satisfied or have a big adrenaline dump after that. 2022 also was a few seasons ago, and while Chwalinska has always been a prospect, she has a very small frame and this can result in some big disadvantages in ball-striking early in a player’s career. Her level here is very good, and I think this goes the distance. Shnaider’s power and left-handedness are things Kalinskaya didn’t really possess, and she’s a bit more consistent than Sakkari who also faired well. Shnaider in 3. I will happily be wrong here since Chwalinska is so fun to watch, but I think I have to stop use brain and let Gill use brain.

Kostyuk vs Andreeva :

These two have met twice this year, and Kostyuk has won both matches. The first was in Brisbane, and was a 7-6, 6-3 win for Kostyuk. The second was only a few weeks ago in the Madrid final, and it was a very close match that ended 6-3, 7-5 for Kostyuk. The scorelines here and the moment make it pretty easy to expect another great match. Madrid is much faster than RG, but the slower court isn’t likely to change the quality of the rallies. Andreeva has been playing excellent this event, and her accuracy and depth on her shots has been top tier. She has had a relatively easy draw so far (Ferro/Bassols/Bouzkova/Teichmann/Cirstea), so I’m not sure if the level of play will be guaranteed here. Andreeva’s draw was not her fault, but it’s worth noting that Kostyuk’s path almost guarantees her level (Selekhmeteva/Volynets/Golubic/Swiatek/Svitolina).

For me, beating Svitolina is very similar to playing Andreeva. Both have incredibly consistent ballstriking and great technical skills. They are a level of gatekeeper that only potential title winners generally get past, and it is the manner in which Kostyuk won that makes me like her side here. She hits bigger than Andreeva, and can also play the type of long points that the job requires. I think Mirra is serving well and fairly accurate at times, but Kostyuk has a slightly stronger delivery. She reminds me a little of Alcaraz in that sense. It isn’t the most renowned delivery, but it’s good enough to get her balls to work with. With a slower court it will be tough to hit through Andreeva, but I think Kostyuk hits a heavier ball than Mirra and will be able to defend evenly and score slightly more in a long match. Kostyuk in 3.