2026 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Round Three - Friday Matches

Women’s Singles :

Kostyuk vs Golubic :

Kostyuk’s run has incredibly impressive. She has not lost since Miami and that loss was to Rybakina. While it’s incredibly difficult to keep streaks alive, Kostyuk took a large break after Madrid and that is essential for maintining focus and keeping yourself in peak physical shape. Sinner may have been dealing with some illness outside of the heat issue, but it does feel like he was put in a tough spot since his homeland’s country fell right before Roland Garros. In any event, Kostyuk is playing well and has a winnable match here. Golubic is peaking and just beat Udvardy and Parks fairly easily, but the real result I’d point to is her three set contest with Krejcikova a week earlier. Golubic is of small stature so for her to be battling even with a big hitter is a sign that she can compete with just about anyone right now.

The Kostyuk win seems likely, but dropping a set against Volynets is a reminder that Kostyuk is incredibly talented, physically fit, and motivated, but not automatic. Her game and approach can vary from point to point, and she wins with overall ability, not any single shot or serve. The baseline rallies are likely to be competitive, and the edge here is on serve. Kostyuk serves much bigger than Golubic, and while the matches are over 4 years old and on faster surfaces, she hasn’t dropped a set in their two previous meetings. I partially expect Golubic to have a look at a set here, but Kostyuk should win regardless.

Wang vs Starodubtseva :

This has been a chaotic 48 hours in pro tennis, and probably the most unwelcome event of them all was Hailey Baptiste’s injury during her match against Xiyu Wang. Wang was leading in the first set when Baptiste jumped to hit a forehand. She didn’t seem to land too awkwardly, but she sustained ligament injuries in her left knee. Hailey later confirmed there were ACL and meniscus injuries, so she is likely out for the rest of this season. This is painful because she was playing the best tennis of her career, but she had also gotten into the best shape of her career so at least she’ll have a head start on rehab. The moment was a little unfortunate as her father jumped the barrier when she fell, and the umpire had to go move him away. It makes no sense to move someone’s father away from their injured child, and it must have been unfortunate to be the umpire there. The tour has rules about boxes not interacted with players or entering the court, and there are also legal and procedural rules to call the Drs. Still just a bad spot all around, but to the umpire’s credit he was by Baptiste’s side in only a few seconds.

This next match is interesting. Wang may have gotten the win via forfeit, but she was winning the first set at that point. Her serve/forehand combo is really effective when she’s playing well, and she might be a bit outmatched as far as rally tolerance here against Starodubtseva, but I think this is a fairly even match. Starodubtseva pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the event, and it was interesting to see her take such a measured approach. Rybakina made 71 errors in her loss, and Starodubtseva recognized early that she didn’t need to take risks. She played admirable defense but never really went huge, just kept hitting the court and forcing Rybakina to create the next shot. Rybakina’s coach left during the second set, and it might have helped if he did some coaching before he did. Elena just really couldn’t find the court but I think a safer approach could have worked at times. Rybakina indicated that her coach was feeling sick and the exit was not unplanned, but it seems like it was a tantrum on his part.

Wang isn’t nearly as dangerous on offense as Rybakina, but she’s in better form. Starodubtseva won’t get the benefit of unforced errors here, so she’ll need to be a little bit more aggressive. The good news for her fans is she’s one of those players who hits a level and stays there. When her timing is off she loses in the first round with a barrage of errors and games quickly lost. When she finds her game she tends to not miss a ball for long stretches, and that is the exact formula to grind past Wang. Starodubtseva in 3, I think Wang is playing incredibly well, and is 25-2 in her last 27 matches. There just isn’t a quick path past her, but a majority of those matches were at a lower level.

Swiatek vs Linette :

Swiatek and Linette met in Miami and it was a close win for Linette. They both were very effective on serve and had similar stats, but it’s a loss that added to the doubts in Swiatek’s camp. Her hardcourt game is still not really well defined, and yet these are matches she’s expected to win automatically. I think that divide is making her “slumps” seem more pronounced than they are. She’s been at the top of the tour for forever and she just won Wimbledon last year. The hardcourt titles are unlikely to come, but at some point you have to chalk that partially up to the physical limitations. Sabalenka and Rybakina can serve bigger and hit harder and those are huge bonuses in those events to get through early rounds without fatigue.

Swiatek has changed some aspects of her game, but I think because her game isn’t really complete and never was a finished product, this flux period where she isn’t reliable is almost necessary. In any event, this is clay and those issues are less prevalent. Linette has just done her a huge favor by removing Ostapenko from the draw, and this is a better matchup for Swiatek because Linette is a less aggressive returner, and because the only trouble Swiatek really has in a major way is being rushed on the baseline and having her serve pressured. Linette’s resurgence has been a bit of a surprise at this event, so I think Swiatek wins this in 2.

Sierra vs Cirstea :

I thought Sierra might challenge Paolini, but she went a step further and beat her. It’s a good win and Sierra is quietly transitioning from a junior prospect to a dangerous opponent in any draw. Her ballstriking is impressive and powerful on both wings and the only hole in her game I see is there isn’t a ton of variation. This match against Cirstea feels like a wrestling match. Both hit the ball hard, both serve fairly well, but Cirstea might be a little more able to convert when she has control of rallies. They met last year at the US Open and Cirstea won 7-5, 6-0 so I would think Sierra has both hope and some adjustments to make. Clay should add a game or two to Sierra’s scoreline, but Cirstea has been at her best the past few weeks so it’s a tougher test than Paolini who was struggling to find consistent tennis. Cirstea in 3.

Teichmann vs Muchova :

Teichmann is making her way back towards the top 100, but this is entirely too much to ask. Teichmann outlasts people from the baseline and finds forehand winners, but the opportunities just dont arise against Muchova unless you apply pressure or hit big to her backhand. Muchova in 2.

Andreeva vs Bouzkova :

Andreeva got rolled in the first set by Bassols, but I would suggest ignoring that because of the way she was able to win the remaining sets. Mirra has had some emotional matches and some high highs and low lows on tour, and she reminds me a little of Gauff in terms of her career because she’s getting all this stuff done before she’s really old enough to be expected to deal with it well. Crying, tantrums, doubting yourself, struggling to look at your coaches, getting upset with rowdy crowds, this is all stuff that instagram munches on but is pretty normal for a young person living a very unique life. Gauff is one of the most mature young people you could ever meet, but her experience as a junior on tour already had her as a seasoned pro by the time she was 20. Andreeva is on a similar course, so while there seems to be more of a roller coaster, the composure and grit to dig in and stop Bassols is just evidence that the trials and tribulations are not all bad.

Bouzkova is a great defender but Andreeva matches that and has a much more effective offense to go along with it. Andreeva in 2.

Svitolina vs Korpatsch :

I read a story where Korpatsch said that her family slept in their car at tournaments early in her career, and it just really made sense as to why she plays the way she does. Korpatsch eats every last crumb, she digs out every single ball she can, and she plays every point like it’s the last. Wang had chances to beat her, but eventually faltered by being forced to play so many shots. It’s strange having control but being the fatigued one, but thats what happens if you play Korpatsch and aren’t consistent. It becomes a mental battle, and Wang looked visibly discouraged by the end even while on serve.

Here, Svitolina should roll. Its similar to the match above; Svitolina can rally as long as Korpatsch can, but hits much bigger and has a better serve. Korpatsch does play some effective offense with her backhand down the line, but I think Svitolina wins no matter how long it takes.

Stearns vs Bencic :

There are some disparities in this round, and this one is about the backhand. Both players can send big forehands out there, and both have an effective serve. Stearns is more about location and tends to go wide very often, and Bencic has adopted a new technique that sends the ball with a lot of bend. Bencic’s delivery does tend to get returned, but making players adjust seems to get her a second neutral ball to work with which suits her game. Stearns’ backhand isn’t bad at all, but the cross-court exchanges are likely to favor Bencic in a major way. The 2-0 win against McNally is actually pretty similar in my brainbox to the task at hand here. Stearns is quick, has a solid and effective forehand, but Bencic should be a bit too solid overall to lose to a one-armed attack. Bencic in 2 close sets.

Men’s Singles :

Borges vs Rublev :

The draw has opened up in several ways here. Yes, Sinner and Alcaraz are gone, but also, many of the gatekeepers are absent. Draper isn’t here, Fils is out, Musetti is absent. We can focus on the big names, but it’s these second tier “always make the second week but never win the title” guys that tend to eliminate the Rublevs and Khachanovs and De Minaurs of the world. These guys are really not bad, they just have some bad matchups just ahead of them. With the draw opening up, they have an interesting chance. As I finish typing this I’m recalling that this is actually the one section of the draw where 7 of 8 seeds have survived. De Minaur, Mensik, Rublev, Ruud, Paul, Fonseca, and Djokovic are in this region, so Rublev may still be cooked. For now, this is a matchup that favors Rublev. He hits the ball heavier and with more spin than Borges, and that has been a key in the matchup, Rublev is 4-0 against Borges, and won in 3 in Monte Carlo this year (6-1 in the third) so he will like his chances. Borges seems to be in great form and has two upset wins already, and Rublev has dropped sets to Buse and Ugo Carabelli, so this should also have some momentum swings. I just think Borges has to do this entirely with his legs on defense, and a flatter hitter can cough up errors over a long match. Rublev in 4.

Tirante vs Carreño-Busta :

Tirante backed up his win against Llamas Ruiz with a solid performance against Davidovich Fokina. His forehand has been a cannon this week and hes been somewhat fortunate to play guys where it’s the biggest weapon on the court. PCB is a solid opponent with a lot of experience, but he tends to be very solid off both wings but not the most dangerous opponent. There are a few points I would make here that I think will make this close. One, PCB is holding serve at a really high rate. Two, he has played less tennis than Tirante since he got a forfeit against Kokkinakis and won in straights against Lehecka. Three, they played last year in Rome qualifying and the first set was a tiebreaker (Tirante then had to forfeit). Pablo reminds me a bit of Linette here where the resurgence is fairly new. It makes it hard to see him beating Tirante in a long match, which I expect this to be. Tirante in 4-5. I think PCB is capable of applying great pressure in rallies by not missing, but over the course of a long match I think Tirante will have more stamina and hit slightly harder.

Michelsen vs Jodar :

Sinner losing has led to me imagining everyone in this draw winning, and oddly Jodar is near the top of my list for longshots. He would have to beat Zverev along the way which would require a massive effort and likely 5 sets, but he’s one of the players in the draw who can probably beat anyone else in a given set. It’s funny to think about a Jodar title when he just struggled with James Duckworth, but I think matchups are important. Jodar moves the ball very well and is hyper aggressive at times. Michelsen has a powerful serve and heavy groundstrokes, but he can be a little slow on clay. I think Jodar is a matchup problem for him, and he was a few points away from losing the first set tb to Basavareddy which would have landed him in a 5th if the match played out the same way it did from there. I also think Duckworth’s speed and grinding style made it so that Jodar was supplying all the offense and that can be rough. This is more of an offensive duel and I think Jodar’s movement, defense, and variety will let him outlast Michelsen’s powerful game and win in 3-4.

De Minaur vs Mensik :

I don’t particularly want to play De Minaur, but I definitely don’t want to play him after a marathon 5 setter against Mariano Navone. Playing Navone for 4 hours and 41 minutes is a heroic task. One rally can be 20 shots, and Navone did his best to wear down Mensik. In the end, two points separated them in the final tiebreak. The ending was a little controversial for me because Mensik was clearly cramping and decided not to serve. He went to the umpire to discuss something and was pretty clearly stalling. The umpire assessed a second serve penalty (which is the second time he had done so in the match), but after he did Mensik went to his towel and took his time and gave himself a massage until the cramping stopped. It was a tremendous match, but I think the gamesmanship in these spots is a little unfair.

While Mensik was grinding away and looking exhausted (had to be helped up after the match when he fell to the floor), ADM was receiving a forfeit from Blockx. Alex is not the better player in my mind. Mensik has a tremendous serve and hits the ball way bigger. This situation though and ADM’s style of defending every point and making his opponent run is likely to create fatigue in Mensik and back to back marathon matches doesn’t seem doable based on how he looked in the fifth. ADM in 4.

Khachanov vs De Jong :

De Jong was excellent against Cina last round, and these two played three close sets in Rotterdam earlier this year. De Jong actually might have the more effective forehand, but Khachanov’s backhand has a similar advantage. Serve-wise, Khachanov is better. He also plays his best tennis at majors, but frequently plays to the level of his opponents. My math here is lazy, but simple. Trungelliti is a player very near the level of De Jong, and is arguably better offensively. Khachanov was close to ending up in a 5th with him, so despite his excellent play thus far, I think it’s very possible this is close. Khachanov has dropped a match to Humbert, lost a set to Gaston, but also has beaten Prizmic and gone to three with Ruud in this Euro clay swing, so the dilemma really is how he matches up here. I think the rallies will be long and the scoreline close, but it’s hard to ignore Khachanov having the experience and results at majors. Khachanov in 4-5.

Fonseca vs Djokovic :

This is incredible. The Prizmic Djokovic rematch was something I circled on my draw early on, but this is probably more exciting. Fonseca was down 2 sets against Prizmic, but he really finished strong. The level he displayed in the 4th and 5th are above what Djokovic has shown in recent history, and since the path past Novak appears to be grinding him down with heavy hitting, the style was ideal also. Early in the match Dino dominated behind huge returning and good serving, but I liked how Fonseca just stayed the course. He did what he could, kept the ball in, and waited. It’s one of the more mature performances he has had on tour. He is also getting a fairly huge boost from the crowd. Prizmic argued frequently with his box and did not appear to react, but the Fonseca crowd has become predictably obnoxious. If you yell before the point is over, maybe you were surprised. If you do it a few times, maybe you’re new to tennis. If the majority of the section does it every single time he hits the open court, you’re being a jerk. I’m not sure what the solution is. You cant really call hindrance on it, because that would be punishing Fonseca. At the same time, that might convince them to stop. It’s especially bad because it will lead to opposing teams doing that. The “they’re doing it too” argument has almost always been offered up when someone is behaving poorly.

I bring up the crowd because Djokovic can get a little frustrated at times, and in this case I can commiserate if frustration arrives. Since he’s the consummate professional, I’m sure he’ll have prepped, and if he chooses to to engage, I’m sure it won’t impact his game too much. So why did I even bring it up? I don’t know.

This match will answer questions. Prior to Sinner’s loss, I actually thought Fonseca might win. He’s playing well and Djokovic has looked solid but vulnerable. He no longer has the 2nd option to just lock in and outlast everyone, and while he’s still a top 5 talent, that 2nd option is something he went to very often when he was near his peak. He shouldn’t be that fatigued here, and the sun won’t be a huge issue since this is a night match. The cooler conditions might make this a longer grind, and while it does nerf Fonseca’s power a bit, I wonder if he won’t be the player who’s still able to rip winners in slower conditions. With Sinner’s exit, the title becomes a very real possibility for Djokovic, so the questions it’ll answer is what he has in the tank. He’s obviously trying to win every big tournament he enters, but the conservation of energy aspect can go out the window if making the final becomes the task rather than making the final with enough energy to beat Jannik. I’m very interested to see how much he digs in, and how much he’s able to dig in.

Based off what I’ve seen so far, I think Fonseca is the better player. That sounds silly, but Djokovic has shown this year that he’s not a wall anymore, and he doesn’t have enough matchplay to be automatic. Fonseca played 5 sets, but he looked very strong physically by the end. I’m expecting this to be an absolute classic. Fonseca admitted in press he’s been actively wanting to land in Djokovic’s draw while he’s still on tour, and playing one of your heros is rough but wanting to play them does tend to lead to solid performances. For the tennis, they match up very similar, but Fonseca really does have every shot and mixes it up in a way that’s hard to read. It’s a steady and balanced game and minimized errors (Djokovic) against a grinding and flashy offense. In the past Djokovic was good at fooling me by looking off in early rounds and stepping it up when needed, but I tentatively think that stepping it up is something he can only do reliably for 1-2 sets now. Fonseca in 5.

Ruud vs Paul :

These two have been great at majors despite not being the most publicized names. With Sinner out, they enter the discussion for many people of big titles, but this matchup is one that likely cooks the winner. Ruud was exhausted against Safiullin, and while he won in straights against Medjedovic, he did look a step slow. He also is visibly sunburnt and has the expression of someone who just got off a deserted island. He did play good tennis last round, but Medjedovic got frustrated early and bailed out of many rallies. He tried to outhit Ruud and forced winners and just generally made the task simple for Ruud. Ruud hit with big topspin and kept Hamad moving, and Hamad tried to beat him from positions where you can’t really do that. Early on Medjedovic asked his box “since when does Ruud serve like this” and while it’s a funny comment, it reminds me of the way Bublik narrates situation awkwardly when he feels anxious. “Be quiet, dig in” is rude, but good advice for some spots. Your opponent playing great is annoying, but you can’t pretend it’s an outlier when you’re playing a sport professionally. People ball. Anyway, Medjedovic earned a lot of fans because of his entertaining style (including one point where he hit like 5 moonballs just for fun), but he afforded Ruud a simple day.

Now to talk about Paul being tired. Tommy had a very lucky draw against Sonego, who had not really enjoyed success against him and came in in rough form. Paul was able to grind his way to a two set lead, but he really looked fatigued in the third. He came into this event a bit tired after a finals run in Hamburg, and I think this will be rough. Ruud has won most of their meetings, and their one on clay was 6 years ago. That 5th set win for Ruud was one that saw Tommy hit double the winners and unforced errors of Ruud, but that illustrates the issue on this surface. Ruud’s normal game is well suited for clay and he’s serving well, and Paul will need to force the issue to get Casper out of his rhythm. Recovering during the event does happen sometimes which is good for whomever wins, but I think barring injury withdrawal this match is likely to be extremely long and involve a bunch of heavy rallies, so the winner will likely be in trouble against Djokovic Fonseca. Ruud is better on the surface and looked slightly better physically last round, so I’m taking him here. Ruud in 4-5.

Halys vs Zverev :

Halys enjoyed a nice 3-0 win against Humbert, and his reward is an entertaining matchup against Zverev. Halys’ serving and power will allow him to pressure Zverev, and it’ll be a good look at how Zverev is dealing with the sudden pressure of being the frontrunner to win this title. Without Sinner and Alcaraz, Zverev really is well ahead of the pack. He has a positive h2h against almost everyone left, and he’s playing well and has a fairly simple draw. Historically, he has not done well with thoughts, and right now he likely has an unlimited supply. This is one he should win no matter what, but I will be peering closely at what he says in press and how he handles difficult moments on the court. Zverev in 3-4.