2026 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Round Four - Sunday Matches

Men’s Singles :

Mensik vs Rublev :

This is one of the only sections of the draw where seeds are surviving and the names look somewhat as expected, and it’s lining up some incredible matches. Rublev has grinded his way through this draw very reliably. Wins against Borges, Ugo Carabelli, and Buse are matches where he was the favorite, but those are all difficult matchups that require him to be solid and maintain focus. After a somewhat wobbly 2025, it’s a very good sign for Rublev to be playing well. Mensik came into Roland Garros a bit under the radar, and after a 5 set marathon agianst Navone where he looked physically exhausted he was somewhat expected to crash out against De Minaur. Alex plays a really suffocating style when he’s in form and he’d hinted at some good play lately. A 6-0 opening set made it look like things were over, and then somehow Mensik rolled.

Mensik finding his best game is scary because he genuinely has more explosive tennis than Rublev, but he also can be pretty solid from the baseline. His backhand is less likely to hit winners, but he has a compact technique that is probably the best backhand Rublev has faced. Rublev’s main approach is to work the inside out forehand and wear down his opponent’s backhand. He hits big and serves well but his movement isn’t quite as good as the rest of the top 20. Looking at this matchup I’d almost expect Mensik to be just good enough defensively to survive tough rallies, and I would guess that his serve will be a bit frustrating for Rublev to deal with. The h2h confirms this a little bit, as Mensik is 2-0 against him. Both matches were on hardcourt, but this is probably the toughest match Rublev has had and it probably will be very close. In a close match, I think the player with the better serve can thrive. If I’m Rublev here, I’m going to switch it up and attack Mensik’s forehand. Mensik has a very powerful forehand when he’s in control, but on defense he tends to make more errors and his shot has less shape on it and less pace. Overall, the level Mensik displayed as he was closing De Minaur out and the fact that he wasn’t physically toast after a 5 setter makes me think he’ll improve a bit round by round. Perhaps Rublev finally wears him down, but I like Mensik here. Mensik in 4.

Ruud vs Fonseca :

Tommy Paul vs Casper Ruud delivered massively, and I wonder how much Ruud has left in the tank at this point. He was down 2 sets against Paul and really had to play near-perfect clutch tennis to come back in this match. Ruud saved match points and a myriad of break points as the match dragged on, and the highlight of his play this week has been his serving. Medjedovic made a comment about it, and Paul is too polite to do that but it felt like Ruud served his best when he was in trouble. That ability is excellent to have, and he is one of the few players in this event that has made the finals of a major. The question for me here is who has more energy for this match. 

Fonseca has now played two heroic 5 setters in a row. The Prizmic win was great, but the Djokovic win was the type you think about for the rest of your career. Fonseca went down his usual two sets before starting to wear Djokovic down. I called Fonseca in 5, but this is a match that could have gone in many different directions. There were big points in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th that could have swung the match in Djokovic’s direction at any time. I would point specifically to the ball in the 5th where Fonseca went for a re-drop and the ball clipped the net and died as the luckiest one. Any other spot and Djokovic is there and Fonseca goes down 15-0. Little moments in huge matches. Fonseca looked explosive and dominant against Prizmic, but against Djokovic it was much more of a grind. His forehand and backhand are excellent, but he’s not automatic in neutral rallies and it almost cost him.

I have to say that with every loss Djokovic makes me like him more and more. He has become so good at being gracious in these moments and recognizing that these crushing defeats are the best moment in these young player’s careers is excellent perspective.

Fonseca against Ruud is a little different than him against Djokovic. I thought Ruud Paul would be the end of them, but Fonseca put a lot into the Djokovic match. He was the fresher player at the end but it wasn’t the type of dominant closeout that he had against Prizmic. Obviously Djokovic is tiers above Dino in terms of shot selection, but I think he needs to get started way earlier in this next round. Ruud tired seems to still be able to grind. Against Djokovic, Fonseca went to the dropshots early, and I think he needs to present this early against Ruud. Spamming this shot will get him punished since Ruud is very well studied and committed to playing defense, but his big advantage against Ruud is variety on offense. When Fonseca is in the zone he can execute any shot, and keeping Ruud off balance actually is the best way to interrupt his swing mechanics. His footwork when you go behind him can get a little off, and isolating his backhand and coming to net on the second ball is one of the better strategies against Casper. His backhand can go down the line, but generally he’s looking to add shape and spin to the ball, so at times he can get a little transparent with his footwork.

The trouble with Fonseca backing this up is that Ruud has just beaten a very similar offensive talent. Paul is able to hold serve in 60 seconds over and over and Ruud is able to focus and compartmentalize that. I’ve talked about Fonseca’s path a bit, and I’m not really sure what Ruud’s is because I don’t think he has to change much. It’s possible for him to stay consistent and aggressive with his forehand and rely on his serve for pressure moments and think that if he applies the same defensive pressure that Djokovic did, he can win. This likely will be very close in the early sets, and I’m not sure why I don’t expect Fonseca to win. To me, it’s even and depends largely on who has more energy. It’s possible for Fonseca to put on a show and win this in 3-4 sets, but it’s also heavy in my mind that Ruud is younger than Djokovic and will have the legs to go deep. I thought Paul/Ruud would be the end of the road, and they went 5, and Ruud looked like he had been on a sea voyage for 10 years by the end, but he was still ripping the ball at that point, and physical strength has been a factor late in majors for quite some time. I don’t know who to pick. I also am not sure who wins if it goes deep. I know nothing. Fonseca in 4.

Jodar vs Carreño-Busta :

At this point, it’s time to stop doubting PCB. He straight setted Lehecka, and upended Tirante despite Thiago being in tremendous form. He’s been positive in winners to unforced errors the whole week, and Pablo continues to win above 70% of his first serves and a great % of his second serves (64). Jodar is supposed to win this match, but he’s been dropping a lot of sets this week. I would normally use the Michelsen match as a reason to doubt him, yet this one I think makes more sense if you elevate Michelsen to a new tier. Michelsen played incredibly well in this match, and hit well off both wings. It was a match he easily could have won with his quality, and if he was playing Pablo this round, I’d expect a Michelsen win.

Tennis-wise, Jodar has some advantages here. He’s solid on both wings, and is a slightly taller player than most baseliners. It lets him return a bit easier, and it prevents PCB from isolating one wing the way he did to Tirante. Jodar has struggled a bit, but he has found ways to win. I think overall he’s just a bit sharper than Pablo, but with PCB at his best it’s hard to see it being simple. Jodar in 4-5. I might be undervaluing PCB a bit because of how rough he’s been since his return from elbow surgery, and Jodar has been vulnerable so this is one I would expect to be very close.

Just a side note, Jodar made the news yesterday for a video seeming to show him shoving a ball girl, and then gesturing at her angrily. I saw the first video, and I quickly went to my tennis chats to announce that Jodar may be, in fact, a lil bitch. It was disappointing news since he’s such a fun player. Hours later, a second video arrived, showing that the angle was misleading, and the girl actually tripped over the tarp, and Jodar was gesturing at his father in his box, not the girl. It’s not very often when you can see something, completely get it wrong, and not even realize that you are, but it’s a good reminder to maintain some reservations about things. In light of this, I am starting to believe that Tsitsipas may not even be a small cat. Zverev, however, still a douche.

De Jong vs Zverev :

Zverev is literally better than everyone left, and has a fairly simple path to the semifinals, but the pressure is mounting. There have been a bunch of marathon matches already, which helps him also since he’s been cruising. Everything is shaping up for him to actually win a major, and this round is ideal. De Jong has made this run out of nowhere, and it’s exciting to see a young player get his first big results at a major. De Jong’s level suggests he’ll compete well here, but I think the matchup is bad for him. His backhand is weaker than Zverev’s, and De Jong has been winning behind a heavy forehand. Since Zverev is so passive and relies on his serve to drag him through, the heavy forehand won’t be as effective. Zverev isn’t going for anything but the court and a specific side, so he doesn’t really get bother by heavy hitting. They played last year and Zverev won in 4, but most of the sets were blowouts. I’m expecting something similar. De Jong’s quality will get him a stretch of games at some point, but Zverev should win this in 4 at most.

Women’s Singles :

Svitolina vs Bencic :

This is a great match to kick off the women’s side, as both these players can trade from the baseline extremely well. They’re consistent, but they’re anything but defensive. Svitolina leans into as many backhands as she can, and her slapshot forehand that she utilizes when she has time can be really tough to deal with. Svitolina has won the last 4 matches against Bencic, and while none of them were on clay it points to a matchup issue. Bencic plays really solid from the baseline and takes the ball early. This can rush her opponents and apply pressure, but Svitolina’s footwork is really good and her focus on being consistent means Bencic has to hit several quality shots just to get a point. I think Svitolina also locates her serve better and with more variation than Bencic, and while Bencic’s new technique is working for her, I think Svitolina is likely to put a very large percentage of returns into play. Svitolina in 2-3 high quality sets.

Kostyuk vs Swiatek :

This is probably the most exciting match of the day after Ruud Fonseca, and it might even be more so given the draw implications. Marta Kostyuk is coming off back to back titles, and her play here has been very solid. She’s lost all 6 sets played against Swiatek, but this season she’s put massive work into her fitness and is playing more aggressively and more consistent than she ever had in the past. It’s a new player, so while there is some default trouble in an old matchup, I think she will fare well. At the same time as Kostyuk has leveled up, Swiatek has garnered some question marks. Roland Garros is a tournament she is automatically a threat to win, but there is more scrutiny on her game than usual. A 6-4, 6-4 win against Linette probably feels good, but if we compare Kostyuk to Linette, and add in the extra games Kostyuk probably wins, it starts to look like this could be a close match.

For Kostyuk, the plan here has to be depth and power. If you give Iga time, you are cooked. She holds her swings very well, and her backhand especially goes down the line well enough that you don’t want to give her anything slow. It’s a classic WTA tactic, but hitting the ball hard down the middle might work well here for Kostyuk. It will force Iga to pick a wing, and to create her own angles. Swiatek also moves very well on clay, and keeping her in one spot can help a bit. For Swiatek, this match is all about her serving. If she’s landing first serves, Kostyuk can’t get aggressive on returns. Marta is playing great, but she makes some errors of her own and tends to be a bit like Fils/Potapova where she grinds away until she breaks through. Swiatek was only 13/17 winners to unforced errors against Linette, so Kostyuk needs to be patient here. If Swiatek isn’t playing hyper-aggressive, she’s almost a bit better at times. Swiatek’s attitude during struggles can suffer a bit, but a familiar opponent and a well-known challenge makes me think she’ll be focused here and fight until it (hypothetically) sets in that she’s on the losing end. I think Kostyuk wins a set, but goes down swinging. Swiatek has dominated this matchup and she can trade on offense with Kostyuk. Marta’s game has mostly been about heavy aggressive hitting and Swiatek can put a few extra balls back and benefit from Kostyuk errors which do flow (she was 35/32 against Golubic). Swiatek in 3.

Andreeva vs Teichmann :

I was lucky enough to be watching Teichmann vs Muchova, and it was honestly pretty funny. Teichmann is usually a pesky defender who eventually finds some forehands once her opponent is tired. Against Muchova, she turned into Ben Shelton. Jill served the ball huge, and every single ball that came near her got swatted. She hit a metric ton of dropshots, and the offensive onslaught was as surprising as it was interesting. Muchova has dropped the first set many times and reeled in opponents, and she quickly went up 3-0 in the second. It looked like another slow start and heartbreak, but Teichmann continued to play solid and it really did overwhelm Muchova.

This next match is one Teichmann should lose, but the style of tennis she played last round could actually give Andreeva trouble. Andreeva dropped a set to Bassols in the first because she came out swinging big on offense, and it seems that Mirra’s approach is to wear players down and just play consistent. It works, but it can take a long time. I would expect Teichmann’s best chance here to be the first set. Andreeva and Muchova are a similar level, but I guess I am expecting Andreeva to have fresher legs and be a little more prepared to run down Teichmann’s offensive offerings. I also think she’s less prone to trying to do too much with these shots, since she’s just looking to Medvedev her way to the finish line. Andreeva in 2-3. I don’t really expect Teichmann to play as well as she did last round, but who knows who finds a new ceiling in a big moment.

Cirstea vs Wang :

Wang played very well against Starodubtseva, and it sets up a high octane offensive clash, in which there will be a lot of octane, and possibly even some octane. Wtf is octane? Well, google says its a hydrocarbon. So there you go. It says it is also an alkane, but that feels like an overshare. Octane has many structural isomers that differ by the location of branching in the carbon chain, which is pretty sweet. While Wang was making it to the second week at RG for the first time, Cirstea was zipping Sierra. 0 and 0 is a wild scoreline. Sierra really looked off on the day, and part of the shutout was her hitting bigger and bigger looking to wrestle back control from Cirstea. It didn’t work, and Cirstea’s offense is firing on a crazy efficient level. She’s seeing the ball big, and the quick wins are allowing the veteran to get to this stage of the event relatively fresh. I think her run continues here. Wang’s playing solid but she’s not the best mover and defending against Cirstea is going to take something special right now. In 2020 Wang did win a hardcourt match in 3 against Cirstea so its worth tuning in, but this is likely Cirstea in 2.