2026 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Round Four - Monday Matches

Men’s Singles :

Cerundolo JM vs Berrettini :

Cerundolo and Landaluce played one of the longest matches in tennis history last round. They battled through 4 tiebreakers and took 6 hours and 3 minutes to find a winner. This is unreal stuff, and for the final set tiebreaker to be 10-8 just makes it even wilder. Six hours of tennis would make me pick the next opponent usually, but Berrettini played a marathon of his own. He was on the court for 5 hours against Comesana and there were 3 tiebreakers and one 7-5 set. To me, Cerundolo is more prepared to play this volume of tennis and come back the next day. Berrettini has gotten back into good tennis form, but stamina is a tricky issue with a lack of matchplay.

In the early stages of this match, I think Matteo will dominate. His serve is a huge weapon and it’s been tough to break him this week. Cerundolo is playing well, but he’s mainly about wearing his opponent down and staying consistent. Where I think the match will turn is around the 2nd/3rd set. As Cerundolo puts a lot of balls in play, but he doesn’t end the rallies. This means even points that Cerundolo wins are lengthy battles for Berrettini. Cerundolo being lefty also makes this a tricky matchup because Berrettini’s backhand is a bit weak. This will be a long day, and Berrettini looked to be on his last legs at the end of the fifth set against Comesana. It’s a little speculative because Berrettini is the better player, but I think Cerundolo drags this out and wins in 4-5.

Tiafoe vs Arnaldi :

The Tiafoe Faria match got a little spicy last round. After a few call disputes, Faria came to net and Tiafoe told him he wasn’t hard, and to just play. I generally agree with this statement about most tennis players, but I also think it’s not the best to bring it up when you are also a tennis player. Sure I like Tiafoe’s odds of being tougher, but I think when you’re actually tough you don’t have to lash out at people who are actually pretty soft. In any event, it was a fun clip to watch, but not really a consequential or important moment. What is important is that Tiafoe managed to turn the match around after going down two sets, and as this tournament goes on he starts to be one of the players left who has the most experience deep in a major.

Tiafoe isnt really known as a clay-court specialist, but his athleticism, forehand, and kick serve are making him a very tough out. He’s probably favored or even against most of the players left, and even though Arnaldi is playing at a great level, Tiafoe is the type of player who can still win any set he gets deep in. Many matches on tour see him down a set and struggling in the second, only to grab a late break and run away with the match. His speed makes it tough to score on him, and his forehand is a problem if you’re tired. 

This next match I think is a little bit of a stylistic issue. Arnaldi isn’t going to blow Tiafoe off the court, but he also isn’t going to try. He is primarily a grinder from the baseline, and he showed that in the battle with Collignon. The whole match Collignon looked like he was just hanging on in defensive spots, and just able to play enough offense to hang onto his serve. Arnaldi ended up winning in 5, and I think he’ll get better round by round here. Last year these two played in Madrid and Arnaldi won in 2, and I expect him to thrive here also. Tiafoe is really solid, but Arnaldi is a test of your focus and consistency, and Tiafoe can get frustrated by court conditions and at times get slightly impatient in rallies. I expect Tiafoe to come out strong and to make his usual late match surges, but I think Arnaldi’s pressure to grind away a set or two in the middle of the match. It’s just a very long day playing him, and while he is playing some good offense, it’s a bit like Norrie where he’s hitting probing shots more often than clean winners. I think the close match with Faria and Arnaldi’s recent surge in play will make for the slight upset here. Arnaldi in 4-5.

Auger-Aliassime vs Tabilo :

I don’t know about this one. FAA has played well in the last few rounds and I feel he’s able to match Tabilo offensively. I see Felix is only -175 on most books, and that feels a bit close for me which raises some alarm bells. I watched Tabilo beat Kouame, and it looked like Kouame could have gotten up a set or two with some better execution. He was defending very well, and Tabilo looked like he wanted it to be easy. He bailed out of rallies early, and early in the match he was only scoring when Kouame missed a forehand. Koaume had an incredible run, and I think he does better when he’s given pace to work with so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares against different types of challenges going forward.

Tabilo has a huge serve and a great forehand, and being lefty is a good plan against Felix. FAA has a huge heavy forehand, but his backhand is a wing he can struggle with at times, and he sometimes fights the ball off rather than hitting through. Based off the odds and their fairly equal abilities on offense, I would expect this match to have some overtime sets. Tabilo can certainly win if given the opportunity, it just seems to be that as the matches go deeper that FAA’s weight of shot will become a big factor, and I think he is better on defense than Tabilo as well. FAA in 5. This is his toughest test so far.

Cobolli vs Svajda :

Svajda is out there doin a lil mischief in this draw. He’s been a massive underdog in almost every match and has taken out two huge names already in Popyrin and F. Cerundolo. I mentioned that Cerundolo could implode, but I really didn’t think it would happen. Here for the second or third time I will predict that Svajda loses. Cobolli hasn’t dropped a set yet, and he’s a more powerful and more experienced version of Svajda. Since Svajda has been operating at this level, I think this will be a tug of war early. Cobolli wins behind his movement and a very heavy forehand, but he can miss also and he can make some errors on the backhand as well when he’s off-balance. If Svajda’s first serve % dips, it could be a quick match, but I don’t think he gets shut out here given how well he’s started off in matches. Cobolli in 4.

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Osaka :

Funny how things change. A few years after Osaka’s Roland Garros troubles, she finds herself in the round of 16 here and playing well. Playing Sabalenka is not a great spot, but the benefit of playing a #1 seed is that you inherit their draw if you win. Osaka is obviously not the favorite here, but she did take a set against Sabalenka in Madrid about a month ago. Osaka’s serve and power will let her score on Aryna, so this should be competitive while her first serve percentage stays high. The Madrid match though showed that over time this % drops, and once it does Sabalenka is much more consistent in baseline rallies. This is worth watching and the winner has a very good chance to make the semis fresh with Shnaider/Keys waiting in the next round. Those two are in good form, but both are big offenses who shorten points and Keys (who seems expected to come through) isn’t really at her best on clay. Sabalenka in 2 close sets. The set Osaka won in Madrid was a tiebreaker, and serves and offenses are given a bit of a boost because of the elevation in Madrid so I think this will be tougher for Naomi. Sabalenka has had some implosions against big offenses like Cirstea and Baptiste, so there is a risk factor here.

Keys vs Shnaider :

Keys managed to squeak past Mboko last round and it sets up a tougher defensive test. Mboko is good on clay, but her game isn’t suited to the surface yet. When Keys was able to hit big, Mboko had timing issues. It made the task simple for Madison, and here I think it’s not the same. Shnaider is comfortable on clay and hits big, so Keys will have to revert to a more varied offense. To beat Shnaider, you need to expose her slightly slow lateral movement. She can uncork big power on the run and that usually keeps her safe in the earlier rounds, but running sprints is not her strong suit. Madison needs to hit the initial shot, and then get ready to reflect the pace that comes back to the open court. She also needs to have soft hands and good footwork ready to soak up and reflect the pace that Shnaider brings when she’s on offense. I think this will be deceptively close, but Keys has won all 3 of their previous matchups (albeit on faster surfaces) and I think at the finish line she is a little bit better on defense and hits a little bit bigger. Keys in 3.

Potapova vs Kalinskaya :

Time to get some things wrong. Potapova has just beaten Gauff in a tremendous match. I worried Gauff’s serve would be under pressure, and it was for the entirety of the match. It’s a testament to Potapova’s great play lately that she was able to win this match, and it sets up a match that’s much easier on paper. Kalinskaya and Gauff on clay are not really considered in the same tier, so Potapova should be a big favorite. I’m not so sure though. Kalinskaya does some things worse than Gauff, and some things better. What she does (in my opinion) best that will help in this match is she does everything pretty well. Her level can be very steady on serve, in rallies, and on both wings. This consistency is what Gauff lacks at times, as she often changes gears during matches and goes more defensive as things get tight. 

Kalinskaya being a more reliable on offense makes me think that she’ll be less bothered by Potapova’s aggressive returning. You can stand in on any serve you want, but if it’s a good delivery your percentages will suffer. Kalinskaya also has a very good forehand, so the big targer players isolate against Gauff isn’t there. Potapova will have to play tennis to win here, no particular strategy or weakness equals a simple win. This all made me a big skeptical, so I checked the h2h. This only lent itself more to my suspicion, as Kalinskaya has won both of their previous matches. They were in 2022 and 2019, but I worry that Potapova is the slightly less consistent player here, even if she is more powerful.

Backing things up after a huge upset is tough mentally because there’s a huge flow of emotions,and Kalinskaya just played some good tennis against Korneeva and Osorio. There was a medical timeout for Kalinskaya in the second set against Osorio, but honestly she takes medical timeouts whenever she’s losing so I don’t put too much stock into it. Maybe I’m reading too much into things, but I think Potapova is going to have trouble here. Kalinskaya in 3.

Chwalinska vs Parry :

Let’s get more things wrong. Chwalinska is on an absolute tear. This has been the best result of her career and will likely get her onto the tour for at least a season. The wins she has here are also world-class stuff. Beating Zheng and Mertens in blowout fashion is incredible, and defeating Sakkari is excellent. The Sakkari match is partially why I think this next one is dangerous. At first glance I was sure I like Chwalinska in a blowout. Parry beat Anisimova, but Amanda hit a wall physically (likely due to lack of matchplay; same thing I worry about with Berrettini) and started to spray errors. I looked back at the Li match though, and Ann really had a difficult time dealing with Parry. Parry created 9 break points against Anisimova, 12 against Li, and 11 against Kalinina. Those are three huge offenses and they all had trouble with her. There are varying reasons why, but I am seeing a theme.

One of the things I was surprised at when this match opened in the markets is that Parry was only +140. With Chwalinska’s wins entering the public domain of knowledge, I think they could have sold her at -200 or more and balanced investment. The French player will garner a lot of casual investment for entertainment or loyalty purposes, but still it is a little off. I also hesitate when lower tier players face a player from their realm. Chwalinska has beaten some great tour level players here, but her few losses recently have been to players around Parry’s level. Ponchet, Zidansek (twice), Uchijima. These are all baseliners who try to hit a heavy ball and drag their opponents, and this is exactly how Parry plays. The one-hander against a lefty is usually a really bad matchup, so I’ll be looking early on to see how Chwalinska’s forehand is affecting Parry and how that forehand deals with Parry’s backhand slice, a shot we see very often. This is my second “hmm” prediction in a row, but I think this will be close. Parry tends to win when she’s the bigger hitter, and she’s successfully tired out 3 big offenses in a row. Parry in 3.