2026 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Quarterfinals - Wednesday Matches 🐢

Men’s Singles :

Berrettini vs Arnaldi :

At this point, Berrettini is the guy left with the most Grand Slam experience. It would be Zverev, but he is a goldfish and doesn’t remember anything that happened last month. This goldfish nature explains why he consistently includes himself in the upper tier and believes he has a shot; the fantastic implosions and folding performances against the top players just zoom right out of his head. 

A few times this tournament I expected Berrettini to lose, but he has gotten back to a good level. Physically, I still have questions about long matches, but he managed to keep things short against J.M. Cerundolo. Cerundolo had put on some great performances, but last round was a little round. He started holding serve well in the second set, but lost his focus in the tiebreaker. He was up a break in the third and serving for the set, but he got impatient and started hitting some bailout dropshots. There were also a few net rushes that just didn’t make sense. Cerundolo had a decent percentage of points won in neutral rallies, but I think the scoreboard pressure and the feel on-court are much different. I often sit there and go “why did he force that, he’s wearing him down!” but on the court when Berrettini is holding fairly easily and you’re scrambling it probably doesn’t feel that way. Sometimes you wind up going for big offensive shots just because you want enough control of rallies that you can breathe, physically and emotionally. Matteo did look a little tired in the third set, but it didn’t affect his tennis too much. So heading into this quarterfinal, Berrettini is relatively healthy, and that’s good news because he’s facing a grinder.

Matteo Arnaldi has been one of the most interesting stories of late. After a lengthy slump he dropped back to the Challenger tour at a particularly stacked event in Cagliari. He managed to win the title and he’s been playing excellent tennis since then. Berrettini will start this match as a slight favorite, and part of that is because of Arnaldi’s win. Tiafoe was up 2-1 and 4-1 in the fourth, and Arnaldi had to grind really hard to win. Arnaldi has now spent more than 17 hours on court this tournament, and it will be tough to return Berrettini’s serve if his legs are not fresh. This seems to me another match where Berrettini’s opponent needs to weather an early storm and hope for a letdown, but I am a little more optimistic about Arnaldi than I was about Cerundolo. There are a few reasons, and here they are! Wow! A few reasons! GATHER ROUND, KIDS, IT’S FEW REASONS TIME! One, Arnaldi serves way more powerfully than Cerundolo. J.M. ran through some service games, but he was only really able to serve Berretitini’s backhand on second serves. Two, Arnaldi hits the ball much more aggressively on his backhand. Cerundolo mostly hits down the line with moderate depth and height, and the variation is not really there. Arnaldi batters his backhand, and he’ll know that that is the whole game here. Three, Arnaldi really has more variety in his game than Cerundolo. I thought J.M. could wear down Berrettini, but he wasn’t able to consistently make Berrettini run. The points were short, and that keeps a server fresh.

If it sounds like I’m ignoring the fatigue on Arnaldi, I sort of am. We just saw Fonseca look a bit flat today and lose, so there is risk here. Trying to outlast an offense and win is also very tricky, but I’m hesitant to declare Arnaldi as just a defensive test here. It takes a ton of shots and good serving to score on Tiafoe, and Arnaldi was able to. I certainly would be picking Tiafoe to beat Berrettini here, so I think I lean towards Arnaldi. Arnaldi in 4. Full disclosure, I’m going to have to pick Cobollo/FAA against the winner of this so I could doubt Berre all the way to the finals.

Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli :

This one is very close. FAA and Cobolli have been moving steadily through this draw in very impressive fashion. Both have fairly similar games. Huge forehands that supply most of the offense, strong first serves, and solid but slightly defensive backhands. Both are great movers, and while Felix is ranked higher, Cobolli is 3-0 in this matchup. Those matches were on hardcourt, but since Felix is supposed to be better on hardcourt that makes this very tricky.

In a 2/3 match, I probably like Cobolli here. He can play a bit more aggressive and I think he has more of a sense of urgency early in matches. Clay at RG is less of a sprint though and more of a long tug of war. In a long match between two very capable players, anything can happen. The one thing I felt compelled to look up here though were average speeds. If they end up being evenly matched, I believe the harder hitter will get the benefit of more bad bounces and be able to apply slightly more pressure than their opponent. Here are the stats. 121 MPH / 113 MPH average 1st serve speed. 99/94 average 2nd serve. 81/76 average forehand. 71/71 average backhand. All categories are in Felix’s favor, and that’s why he’s my pick here. I think he actually is the toughest matchup left for Zverev on this side of the draw, because he serves very well, but also because he is content to hit heavy shots and make his opponent run. He has shown an ability to elevate in big moments (most notably against Sinner at the US Open last season), and while his game is vulnerable against everyone in the top 100 in an early round, he is also a dangerous matchup for anyone in a later one. FAA in 5. This does not strike me as a match where either really dominates long stretches, and I expect most of the early sets to be decided by who blinks or makes a few errors.

Sabalenka vs Shnaider :

Shnaider pulled off a tremendous three set win against Madison Keys last round and it results in her best finish at a major. She’s hitting clean and has great power, which gives her a decent chance in most matchups. Unfortunately, there is a great big Sabalenka in the way. Sabalenka and Zverev seem like they have a really good chance to win here, and round by round their competition keeps dropping. The players remaining are dangerous, but Sabalenka’s best play wins here. She has been extremely good on serve, and the match with Osaka was a good sign. Osaka played well, and Sabalenka still seemed like she’d win, even when she was trailing on the scoreboard. “Seemed like” doesn’t mean a lot, but there is a palpable tension in matches that seems to affect players. It just wasn’t present for Sabalenka. She really has continued to improve her game despite a long stretch at #1, and she should repeat the straight set win here.

Despite Sabalenka being the clear pick, Shnaider can still make herself a problem. Sabalenka is only 64% lifetime against lefties, and the only opponents she has a lower win percentage against are the top 10 and in finals (which makes sense). It will be interesting early to see how well Sabalenka does on defense, because that will determine how long this match goes. Sabalenka is likely to hang onto her serve very well, so if Shnaider wants a set it’ll have to be a tiebreaker. Once you make some noise on the scoreboard, Sabalenka’s game does change, as does her demeanor. I don’t expect a third set, but it’s something to look out for if it happens. Sabalenka in 2. This is hers to lose and she has the simpler side of the draw also.

Kalinskaya vs Chwalinska :

In a beautiful landscape of matches I don’t think I”m qualified to predict, this lands squarely on the peak of the strongest mountain, or something majestic like that. Kalinskaya and Chwalinska is a quarterfinals that I don’t think anyone saw coming before the tournament, and one of them absolutely belongs here. Chwalinska has played incredibly well this week, and it should be noted that this run is after a successful qualifying bid, so it’s even more impressive. Chwalinska has beaten Zheng, Mertens, and Sakkari already, and last round she won comfortably again vs Diane Parry. Parry looked competitive early, but she began forcing offense and errors flowed. She gestured to her box about the height of Chwalinska’s shots, and that was a little puzzling to me because that has been the main thing that Chwalinska has done so far. You either need to accept the tricky battle from behind the baseline, or you need to be very proactive about your footwork. Parry seemed committed to playing offense and ending points, and I just don’t think it was realistic. When she did try to force things and left the ball short, Chwalinska was efficient about playing dropshots off both wings.

This matchup is tough because of Chwalinska. It is hard for me to see her losing as well as she’s playing, but she also looks extremely vulnerable. Her tactical decisions have been as good as anyone in this tournament, but the ball is there to be hit if any opponents have patience. Digging through Kalinskaya’s year so far, a lot of her losses have been to flatter hitters which is a good sign. She’s a tricky matchup here because she has rally tolerance when she needs to, and also because she has the ability to create angles and pace off both wings. I do expect her to play comfortable here also, because she probably should be out of this tournament. Kalinskaya defeated Potapova, but she was not the better player. Potapova was in rare form and applied constant pressure. She broke more times and created more break points (9/14 vs 8/12). Kalinskaya also had to break twice while Potapova served for the match, and overall she just hung on long enough for Potapova to crack. This was a match that really illustrated the benefit of perspective and composure. Kalinskaya was in rough shape at times, but she stayed calm. On the other side of the net, Potapova reacted constantly, and there is no amount of coaching money I would accept to deal with the dirty looks she gave her camp. More than just affecting your game, it is important to keep the crowd neutral at worst. If you’re displaying a poor attitude, the French crowd is very likely to get behind the underdog.

Kalinskaya has the patience that Zheng and Parry don’t have. She has the offense that Mertens and Sakkari don’t. Other names may loom larger on paper but I think Kalinskaya lands more central on all the metrics, and doesn’t really struggle in any. If it seems like I’m awarding her the win, I’m not. I think that all these positives make her the hardest match Chwalinska has had, but Maja is playing extremely well and is very consistent here. This likely goes to a third, and Chwalinska has finished strong in every single one of her matches. The flip side is that I don’t think Maja brings the type of offensive pressure that Potapova just did, and Kalinskaya was able to endure that. The end result here is that I don’t know what will happen. It’s hard to choose Chwalinska when each new triumph is her best yet, and although her level is great, I feel like her opponents have not been patient enough. In a quarterfinal, I think Kalinskaya will be committed unless her body gives up on her. Kalinskaya in 3.