2026 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Quarterfinals - Tuesday Matches 🐢

I’m going to go a little quick today because I am actually hitting a wall and struggling to stay awake.

Men’s Singles :

Mensik vs Fonseca :

The big question here is about Mensik’s stamina. His match with Rublev was only 4 hours long but it was a 5 setter and he looked very tired in certain parts of it. Mensik managed to go up two sets early but from there he really looked fatigued. In the 5th he managed to find his ability to serve again, and that made a big difference. Throughout this match Rublev had looks and was competitive in games, but he floated a ton of serve returns just long and the same favor wasn’t afforded to him by Mensik. Jakub put extra balls in play and played a more measured game. Rublev was a little bit more dangerous in rallies, but Mensik was close enough in terms of level that Rublev’s edge didn’t amount to points. Mensik wound up being more solid on the backhand wing, and this and his serving got him through.

In this next match, both players have played the same amount of sets, but only one has really shown visible struggles. Fonseca has played some epic battles already and the match with Ruud was no different, but he has finished strong in almost every match. His team has been limiting his participation on tour to avoid worsening some back issues, and also to provide extra time for strength training. It has somewhat hurt his early round levels after breaks, but it seems to have greatly improved his durability. Fonseca won in 4, but this match very easily could have gone the other way. There were a bunch of very close points at crucial times, and there was even a blown call at set point in the second that saved Fonseca from being tied 1 set apiece. The line-calling has created some bad situations this event, but I think it has been higher quality than years past. The one complaint I would have here is that the tv coverage tends to replay the hawkeye version when the call was right, but skips a decent % of the ones that look potentially wrong.

My suspicion about Fonseca Ruud was that Fonseca might just actually be better at tennis, and that did seem to be the case. Ruud’s consistency and discipline made the match very even, but Fonseca had more ways to score and his backhand managed to really be effective. Ruud’s heavy topspin managed to keep Fonseca from playing dropshots, but Joao was still the more dangerous player on defense. When there were spots to come up with a sharp pass, Fonseca was a little more capable than Ruud. He’s just a complete player, and while the hole in his game is unforced errors and impatiance, those things haven’t been on display at this event. The last two seasons the route past Fonseca was to grind until he got tired, and there is a half chance that Mensik is the right guy to do that. He can get exhausted, but his rally tolerance is very good. He serves better than Ruud, and has a signficantly better backhand on defense and offense. His forehand is probably to target and Fonseca’s depth should cause some problems for him on this wing, but it’s another match that will take a long time for Fonseca to win. Outside chance that Mensik is just completely exhausted here and Fonseca rolls, but these next gen matchups tend to be close, and their one previous meeting was a 5 set clash at the Next Gen Finals that Fonseca won. Mensik’s serve makes him a problem for anyone, but Fonseca has shown the ability and willingness to lob and chip returns deep. His ability to adjust quickly and his timing make him a real tough player to close out. Fonseca in 4-5.

Jodar vs Zverev :

It is pretty crazy for Zverev’s tournament to just be starting, but that’s how it feels. He has cruised through every match so far, and everyone else in this side of the draw has had some extremely difficult battles. Zverev has been on court for 9 hours and 13 minutes, and Jodar has for 12 hours and 57 minutes. Add in that Jodar is early in his pro career and Zverev is one of the most well-conditioned athletes around, and it starts to paint the picture that it will take something extremely special for Jodar to win. The good news is that he is capable of the type of aggressive shotmaking and consistent aggression that can fluster Zverev and make him blame his box. The bad news is that this tennis hasn’t been consistently present in matches thus far. Jodar has a solid serve and very strong groundstrokes, but he hasn’t managed to create distance in the scoreline against his last few opponents. Duckworth played even for much of the match, Michelsen almost won, and Carreño-Busta was up two sets before his shoulder became sore which cost him the match.

De Jong was our first look at Zverev’s level, and Jodar is the first real threat to him crashing out. Zverev’s draw and his progression through it indicate that he should win, but the one little saving grace if you want to hope for an upset is that Jodar is only around +220 for this match. That’s as low as anyone has come in against Zverev,and I actually expected it to be more around the +300 range. If Jodar’s variation and aggressive style gain control of rallies, Zverev’s passive play and the deceleration he falls into on his forehand wing could become a formula for a huge upset. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but it requires a level of tennis Jodar hasn’t brought for a long duration so far this week. The big thing to watch early on is how well Jodar does with putting returns into play. If he can make Zverev play a bunch of tennis it could get close because Jodar is a bit more aggressive and can really play well with time. That’s a big if though, so I think here we are either watching the appearance of a legit Grand Slam contender, or a Zverev win in 3-4 sets. I lean anti-climactically toward the latter.

Women’s Singles :

Svitolina vs Kostyuk :

This seems like the ultimate challenge. Is there something that separates these two? They both serve around the same level. They both defend extremely well and move similarly quick. they both have a heavy forehand that does most of the work. Svitolina’s defensive backhand might be a bit more reliable as far as moonballs and squash gets, but Kostyuk has a solid backhand and probably goes down the line a bit better. This is basically even in my mind, and there isn’t a lot in the h2h to separate these two. Svitolina is on a 10 match win streak and won the title in Rome, Kostyuk is on 16 matches in a row and won Madrid and Rouen. I do not think there is a clear path to victory for either, nor is there something to isolate. This means that this will probably be one of the best matches of the tournament, because rather than spam one tactic, they will have to play tennis the entire time. Sometimes your opponent is just plain good, and there’s no reason to do anything other than pick the right shot for each situation. That (imo) is the best for fans, even if it is not the easiest for analysts.

At the end of the day, Svitolina has done everything Kostyuk has, but is a little bit older. I wanted to point to the set she dropped against Bencic as an issue, but Bencic was super aggressive at the end of the first set and hit some solid winners. I do believe that Kostyuk can play strong enough tennis to wind up in the decider, but she might be slightly less consistent with her ballstriking. I could go back and forth and not really feel comfortable choosing a winner here. I think Kostyuk is my pick. Beating Swiatek is a great win. Svitolina has great grit and determination and can win this, but I think Kostyuk might actually have slightly more stamina as this goes deep. Kostyuk in 3.

Cirstea vs Andreeva :

This is a really solid quarterfinal and a great test for both. Cirstea has been operating one of the best offenses in the tournament and has yet to drop a set. Andreeva has become one of the toughest defensive walls on tour and has been mostly cruising. Anytime a huge offense plays a wall, the tennis is great. Cirstea has the power to hit past Andreeva, but it will take a few shots every rally to do so. The big key for her will be first serve percentage, as this will let her play from inside the baseline. This sounds like a no-brainer, but if you’ve watched Andreeva play so far you’ll have seen the absurd depth she’s playing with when she controls a rally. Against Teichmann almost every shot was within a foot of a line, and it’s the type of accuracy and pressure that can make Cirstea make occasional errors.

Andreeva may be playing well, but I don’t think this can end in any sort of blowout on her end. Cirstea has rounded into her best form, and they have already had a close match earlier this year. Cirstea and Andreeva met in Linz (indoor clay) a month ago and the final scoreline was 7-6, 4-6, 6-2 for Andreeva. I expect this to take three sets for either player to triumph, and since Cirstea has been winning in straight sets I don’t think fatigue will be a major factor. Andreeva might actually be the more rattled player at times here, but slow and steady is a decent plan in a third. Cirstea is dangerous here, but I think the big trouble for her will be defending her second serves. In rough stretches, I think Andreeva will break. Andreeva in 3. It’s a pretty generic pick, and Cirstea’s play here makes it really scary to doubt her, but I think if they play this match 10 times, Andreeva wins 7 of them.