2026 Roland Garros Men's Round Two - Wednesday Matches 🐢

It looks like the bottom half of the draw plays tomorrow so I’m going in draw order so people can know who plays who next round. Here’s the men’s draw, I’ll post the women’s in about two hours.

Men’s Singles :

De Minaur vs Blockx :

Blockx felt something “snap” during practice in his ankle and has had to withdraw from the tournament. De Minaur advances, and my draw is in shambles. This was actually one of the closer decisions because ADM has just found a good level of tenacity again, but Blockx’s ability to hold serve and the fact that he’s pretty competent in the rally and moves well for a good server were going to make this a tricky call

Navone vs Mensik :

Both these guys had fairly easy first rounds on paper, and they both won in straight sets. Mensik hasn’t been performing well on clay, and Navone is coming off a great run where he played more offensively than he usually does. They haven’t played yet on tour, which makes this really exciting. Mensik’s serving can give him a huge boost here, and in his Challenger years he was very solid on clay. The trick with Navone is that the rallies don’t end in one shot. You have to expect everything to come back and you have to be very comfortable resetting the point. For me, the only thing that makes me lean towards Navone is that he’s been so much more creative lately once he’s in the point. I expect the usual deep returning and tense match stuff when Mensik is serving, but here I think Navone is bringing a fairly competent offense in and I’m not sure I like Jakub’s stamina against Mariano. This should be the first of an incredible set of matches. Navone in 4-5.

Borges vs Kecmanovic :

This one’s funny because Borges just beat Etcheverry. That should move him into a good contending tier for this event, but that just seems to be a matchup issue for Etch. Borges is now 3-0 against him and he wasn’t a favorite in any of them. Their previous meeting was in Estoril in 2025 and went to three. That makes this a close one but the first set was 6-0 to Kecmanovic and the Borges set win was a tiebreaker. It makes me think that Kecmanovic has the stamina to hang on even if he gets out-grinded, and also that his A game is more effective on clay. Miomir hits with way more topspin than Borges and serves a bit bigger most of the time also. The straight set win against Maroszan was solid also. I don’t think there is a way for this to be a blowout, but I think Borges will need to be extremely efficient for several hours to get through and will probably have to do more running. Kecmanovic in 5.

Ugo Carabelli vs Rublev :

Degensclub contributor and Japanese sports wizard Gill wrote an article earlier this year about Ugo Carabelli being underrated, and I complained. Since then, he’s been playing some of the best tennis of his career. The tour results for most players depend largely on ebbs and flows of physical ability (win a bunch of matches, wind up burnt out for a while / lose a couple first rounds, wind up fresher and more motivated than guys who’ve been playing more and training less), and draws. The thing I think Carabelli does best is to win when he’s supposed to, and when the opportunity presents itself. He doesn’t deviate from the plan (heavy forehands and consistency), and if you beat him, you beat him. It works on tour because a lot of the higher seeds simply don’t always put in the best effort when they’re confronted with a heavy workload or a potential loss.

Here, I think Carabelli will play well, but ultimately his approach is too similar to Rublev’s, and he’s worse on the backhand. Buse and Rublev had a very close contest, and it was basically backhand exchanges for most of the match. Rublev was able to score slightly more in these and take the ball down the line more often, and Buse was only really able to score with his forehand. It felt like Buse was in a better headspace and playing more clearly, but that Rublev was the one able to control the outcome. They both broke many times, but Rublev was the one who eventually hung onto his serve a few times. Here, it’s the same equation. Ugo Carabelli serves a bit smaller than Rublev, hits his forehand similarly, but the backhand edge goes to Rublev again. I also think that Buse is more focused on finding the inside out forehand and challenging Rublev’s slice backhand than Ugo, who tends to just go with a heavy ball to that region. Should be Rublev in 4, but again Camilo is a guy who will stay within himself and be there if Rublev’s mental lapses and frustration appears. Hot weather makes people more prone to anger, so it’s a real concern, I just think it’s another spot where Rublev can break back if he gets down in the scoreline.

Ruud vs Medjedovic :

Scary scary times for Norwegian tennis fans. Ruud looked absolutely toasted by the heat in Paris, and after missing 5 match points against Safiullin, it looked over. Ruud did the right thing by tanking the 4th set, but when the issue is heat, it doesn’t provide the greatest relief since you’re basically stuck out in the sun for that whole tank session. Working in his favor was the lead he already had, and the fact that Safiullin is not really at his best right now. He’s only just getting back into tennis, and even when Ruud was struggling he still made some errors.

The announcers were particularly interesting (annoying) this match. After Safiullin won the third, Ruud was extremely slow walking to his chair. Safiullin looked at him, to see how he was doing. Obviously you want to keep an eye on the way your opponent is feeling. For some reason, the American announcer decided to paint it as Safiullin giving him a look, to send a message that says “I’ve got you now”. I do not know how long you have to watch tennis to know that these guys generally avoid confrontational stuff at all costs, but this didn’t happen. The storytelling stuff and guesswork has no place in the game, and it’s always the same people putting their half-ignorant spin on things. There are players on tour who fist pump and shout to try to gain momentum or bug their opponent, but very few players are grilling anyone after a set. Roman Safiullin is a calm guy and a great player, the projection is a little sad. The announcer followed that up by saying that Roman’s medical timeout in the 4th (while up 5-0) gave Ruud hope and that’s the reason he fought hard in the fifth. Tanking the 4th set to regroup for the 5th is so ridiculously standard in tennis that anytime I see a 6-0 4th set, I consider the 5th to be an event contest. Imagine Ruud saying “I wouldn’t have tried in the fifth but he took a MTO”. All this sending a message and inspiring hope stuff can be a thing, but “I’m trying to win the tennis match” is not a message you need to send, and the guy who tanks and wins the fifth was not planning on giving up.

Anyway, the recovery here is interesting because Ruud looked pretty rough out there, and Medjedovic is playing well. Hamad has his own difficulties putting in long matches, but he played Ruud well last season in Madrid, losing 7-5, 7-5. I think this is a lazy pick, but Medjedovic has got to dig in here and win. Ruud gets a day of rest, but pushing past the fatigue and dehydration can leave you pretty cooked, and the fatigue was not a one match thing, he’s at the end of a long run of tennis including the semifinals in Geneva. Medjedovic is also significantly better than Safiullin, so a lot of things are pointing to this being an upset. Ruud recovering and playing well is good for the tournament, so I won’t mind eating it. Medjedovic in 4. He has the game to close out the same situation Safiullin had, and Roman didn’t really do a ton to create it so I think we’ll see Ruud hit the wall again around the 3rd set.

Sonego vs Paul :

Herbert gave a good effort against Sonego, but he just wasn’t quick enough to earn the errors that put you across the finish line. Sonego is still missing a bunch, but you have to apply the pressure on defense to make that happen. Most of the time Lorenzo was able to go inside in with his forehand, it went for a clean winner. Herbert was extremely skillful here and it was a joy to watch him play, but he got a little hesitant on big points and Sonego seemed aware that “hit the open court” was good enough.

I don’t think this next one will be close. Tommy Paul dropped a set to Hijikata, but he plays so fast at times that this happens. He might drop one to Sonego also, but the cumulative defense that he plays will expose Sonego’s inconsistency, and Tommy’s offense is clicking right now. Paul in 3-4

Fonseca vs Prizmic :

This is the perfect match to establish Prizmic’s tier. So far this clay season, Fonseca has beaten mostly everyone in straights, or lost to top tier opponents in 3. Zverev, Shelton, Jodar, Medjedovic (who was top tier that week), all in 3. These are probably disappointing losses for him, but for me they are great signs. Last year this match would have gone to Prizmic easily. Fonseca has had some physical issues this year with his back, but he’s stronger than he was and more consistent. He crushes the ball and he’s able to do it for longer. Here, I want to say Prizmic wins with the level he displayed in Rome, but I’m not so sure. In a 2/3 match, his ballstriking and consistency can be a big factor, but Fonseca has a lot of time to play a lot of tennis here, and when you remove the errors, his overall tennis is very high and has more variety than Prizmic. The question also remains if Dino will remain at a high level or regress slightly. Yes, you beat Djokovic, but then you lost to Khachanov. Granted, Karen is playing well and serving well, and sure 1/9 on break points is a rough day, but still it’s a match you’d want to win.

Basically, I think this will be a tug of war. Whoever is winning points at the time will fist pump to their box knowingly, and whoever isn’t will have a swirl of thoughts and worries that will be easily overshadowed by a desire to win. This has all the makings of a classic, and both are in exceptional form. I would lean slightly towards Prizmic because he has put in a lot of work on his physical fitness, and a long match with a simple plan can sometimes be easier to execute. The winner plays Djokovic and I think that will be a possible win given the level he’s displayed thus far and the slight hesitancy to redline. Prizmic in 5. I think a big part of this is weathering the storm when Fonseca catches fire, and this is another prediction where me being wrong is great for the tournament because Fonseca playing well vs Djokovic is a crazy good popcorn moment. I know it’s tough to watch champions age, and sometimes those champions don’t want to keep going because they have established ceilings, but players battling Serena or Murray or Nadal is often the best match you can watch in an early round. Sometimes you get something beautiful from tennis, sometimes ya give something back.

Royer vs Djokovic :

This is mildly scary because Novak dropped a set to GMP, but this is a very similar task. Royer has a great serve, and good enough skill to play well in spots like this. He’ll deal with with Novak’s ballstriking, but he hasn’t been sharp enough recently for a win to make sense. I also think round by round Djokovic will get a little better at returning serve, and Royer’s offering is a bit lighter than Perricard. Tougher baseline task here, but similar level of challenge. This won’t sound sensible, but since Royer has taken sets off Comesana and beaten Dellien and Martinez recently, I think he can get pretty close to a set against Djokovic. Lmao. What a dumb sentence. Still, Djokovic seems like he’s trying to work through this draw with minimal effort, and that means accepting close sets. Djokovic in 3-4.

Basavareddy vs Michelsen :

Michelsen beating Shevchenko in 3 is a nice reward for some good work done on clay. He’s been putting in the effort on clay even though he didn’t start out so solid, and now he’s decent. I think he advances here also, despite the great win by Basavareddy. Nishesh returned very aggressively, and at times hit good dropshots and winners. Overall though, I felt like it was Fritz’s dismal level that allowed him to win. When Fritz started hitting his forehand decent and serving well wide from the duece side in the third, it basically made the match even immediately. He gassed out, but I feel like Michelsen’s ballstriking will be a significant issue for Basavareddy here, and he was having trouble holding serve as the match dragged on. These two have traded wins on hardcourt, and this is their first clay meeting. I think Michelsen has just been operating at a higher level on the surface, and I don’t rate the Fritz win here, although it was a tremendous result. Michelsen in 3-4.

Duckworth vs Jodar :

Good luck for Duckworth getting a forfeit from Diallo. There are a lot of players playing in this injured and dropping out, and that’s kinda wild to me since tournaments used to fine players to discourage them from doing that. Jodar is way too good to lose this, and I like this section of the draw for him. Jodar in 3.

Davidovich Fokina vs Tirante :

ADF almost lost to Dzumhur which is pretty bad. At times he hit bunches of winners when he needed to, but his level has been mediocre lately and this is a difficult test. Tirante played very well against Pablo Llamas Ruiz. He hit his forehand as hard as he could every single time and it had a huge impact. That’s probably the reason I think he wins this match. ADF has a better backhand, but Tirante can probably survive those. If ADF’s timing is poor or his shots are short in the court, Tirante actually has the ability to score on him consistently here, and without risk. That’s a big combination on clay, so unless ADF levels up I think this is Tirante in 4.

Kokkinakis vs Carreño-Busta :

Ah yes, the match we all expected. Kokkinakis vs PCB. Kokkinakis was down 5-2 in the fifth against Atmane, and Atmane just hit a wall physically. He lost 5 games in a row, and Thanasi notched a huge and much needed win. He’s 855th in the world right now, so results when he uses his protected rankings are huge. I read a stat that said 14 of his 37 completed Grand Slam matches have gone to five, which is pretty wild. Maybe too wild. Maybe we should all calm down. While he was grinding out an entertaining win, Lehecka was going full Lehecka against PCB. He hit 46 unforced errors and Pablo held above 80% of both his first and second serves. This is probably the opposite of what I expected, but I think PCB doing so well on serve elevates his game a level above where he’s been hovering. Kokkinakis can 100% score on him with his powerful serve and heavy forehand, but recovering from a 5 setter after only a few matches on tour doesn’t seem likely. PCB’s run is random, and probably can continue. PCB in 4-5.

Khachanov vs Trungelliti :

Khachanov and Trungelliti haven’t played in ten years, but it will be their second meeting on clay. The first went to Khachanov on clay in Barcelona in a close three set battle, and I’m getting real lazy because I think this one will be a similarly close battle. Both won in straights in their first match, and both possess really effective serving and solid groundstrokes. I think the slight edge in play goes to Khachanov, and he may be a bit more durable here as well, but his shotmaking and creativity are a bit more subdued than Trungelliti, who has decent dropshots and is adept at net. It is unlikely to me that either can win in straight sets, and the slight edge in serving goes to Khachanov so I think he’s the favorite heading in. Khachanov in 4ish, but this is another excellent match.

Cina vs De Jong :

I’m really not sure who will win this. Cina won a very squeaky match against Opelka that tested his nerves and shot selection. I didn’t love some of the hyper-aggressive choices, but he’s aiming high. Here, he’ll have a much easier time returning serve because De Jong doesn’t have the most powerful delivery, but he’ll need to be way more consistent in baseline rallies. De Jong tends to win when he’s the bigger hitter, and he’s not the flashiest player but he’s very solid on clay and just beat Wawrinka. That involves a lot of solid tennis, so Cina’s percentages matter. I think his backhand has more variation and he’s a more explosive server, and his results recently include a ton of wins. Almost all the wins are at a slightly lower level than De Jong though, and Opelka is a unique clay-court challenge so that doesn’t factor in here. This could really go either way, and I’d pick De Jong but he lost to Michael Zheng in the finals of qualifying. I’m gonna close my eyes and pick Cina in 5. His game is still developing and I think he will eventually find ways to score.

Humbert vs Halys :

Decent opportunity for both players. Halys was solid in round one, but Humbert played well in Hamburg. A three set loss against Buse and a win against Khachanov are exactly the level he needs to bring to beat Halys. Humbert is generally not that great on clay, but he does have good accuracy on his offensive shots and Halys can be a little slow with his lateral movement. If Humbert is playing well here, he just has to win 1-2 tiebreakers in order to get this match done. Halys also lost his last three matches against lefties (Cerundolo, Moutet, Draper) and while those are quality players it makes me a little suspicious. This is another match where it’s not really a “this is a guaranteed outcome” type thing, but while that’s tough for me it’s good for the tournament. Humbert in 5. I don’t think he’s playing well enough for this to be a blowout and Halys is a tremendous server, but Humbert strikes me as more likely to extend rallies, and since he holds his swings a long time, I think he’ll be able to freeze Halys when he has control.

Machac vs Zverev :

I thought Machac would get worn down in round one, and he played solid. Silly as it is, I am pretty much worried about his stamina in this round also. Zverev is a bit passive which can let a player like Machac control rallies and expose his forehand, but Zverev has been serving well all season and seems a bit more aggressive during baseline rallies. If anything, his forehand has actually improved from previous seasons. The story with him since his breakout year is that his talent and physical strength are dragging him forward even though his mind for the game is not the sharpest. Their previous meeting on clay was at the Olympics and was 7-5, 6-3 for Zverev. This should be close, and probably is the first spot where Zverev can drop a set, but he’ll have two avenues to get this done. One, solid play and being a slightly more effective server, and two, injury or fatigue. Zverev in 4.