2026 Roland Garros Men's Round Three - Saturday Matches 🐢

Men’s Singles :

Cerundolo J.M. vs Landaluce :

If you’re like me you’re still not really sure how to feel about Sinner’s exit from this tournament. I’d recap it, but at this point everyone has heard the story. Still, there is a lot to unpack. Sinner’s issues with the heat have been a consistent theme, but this one did not look like the ordinary troubles. For one thing, he has been able to navigate matches and win when he has the heat issues. He was struggling against Medvedev in Rome but still was leading in the 3rd set. He has the ability to go bigger and more aggressive when he doesn’t want to run, so in my head, even if he was in trouble he could beat Cerundolo. Juan is extremely good on defense and in good form, but I put his ceiling around the 30-50 level, so this was a huge shock. Add in that Sinner has experienced cramps during matches before and managed to recover physically by the end, and it adds another question mark. Maybe the last confusion for me is how he has won Australia several times (where it is so hot they have to pause play at times) when he has this issue.

After Sinner won Madrid, I said there was no way he played Rome. People argued, and tehy were right. Djokovic and Nadal had set the blueprint at times of winning one 2nd tier title, and then skipping the next one to prep for the next major. He may have wanted to play, but I think Sinner is in a bad spot because of tour scheduling here. His home country’s Masters event being right before Roland Garros is always going to give him a tough dilemma. 2/3 format is different, but a two week event is a minefield of potential injuries and fatigue. There is a strange mental toll also when you win multiple events in a row. The appeal of setting records is there and Sinner is still having an incredible year, but it’s just hard to win forever. Something random happens, and here it did. The biggest wrinkle in this loss was that in press Sinner admitted he was not feeling well before the match. He said he had trouble sleeping and was feeling slightly ill on the day, and without wanting to take anything away from Cerundolo, I think the Sinner was dealing with issues beyond his usual delicate tolerance to the heat.

For now, J.M. has a good opportunity here. Landaluce is better on paper given his results this year, but he just played 2 5-set matches in a row. Prado is a player very similar in terms of pace and consistency to Juan. Kopriva is better, but Landaluce was losing to him and was down a break multiple times in the deciding sets. Martin is playing well and stepping it up when he needs to, but he’s clearly vulnerable here and it’s a good chance for J.M. to inherit Sinner’s draw. As far as the tennis, Landaluce serves way better and has more variety in his game than Cerundolo. The trouble with variety is it can lead to errors during neutral rallies, and the aggressive approach on clay can add to this as well. Landaluce has shown that the wall/pushy technique on clay is working a bit against him, but it will take some offense to close out. Cerundolo does serve well at times, and being lefty helps a lot here because Landaluce’s backhand is a much safer target (unlikely to come back with interest) than his forehand.

Great opportunity for both. In an earlier round, I might like Landaluce, but the 2 5-setters and Cerundolo riding high after a big win make me lean slightly towards the lefty. Cerundolo in 5.

Berrettini vs Comesana :

I had a hard time believing that Berrettini was back in form, but it seems like I had missed some signs. The losses look bad, but there is at least one solid win (Navone) that should have given me the hint. Berrettini slumped for so long I just didn’t expect him to complete the comeback, and since his weakness has been in his legs it seemed like it would be hard to get back to business while competing on tour. At this point, I give him credit. Rinderknech isn’t a lockdown defender by any means, but he gives a good account of himself and beating him required Matteo to play some good defense.

This next matchup is very interesting. There are a lot of matches this round that could go either way, and a few I simply don’t know the answer to, but I’ll talk about what I do know. Comesana has just won an incredible match against Darderi, but it wasn’t his first win against him. The caliber of the win (on paper) should make him a slight favorite against Berrettini, but I watched the match and saw some genuine tactical problems for Darderi. Comesana’s speed and ability to generate depth on the run made it really tough for Darderi to end rallies. The speed also seemed to keep him from coming to net, even when there were many spots where he should have. Sure, you get passed once or twice, but overall you’re going to win the points. That’s why it’s important to mix up your game a bit early and often, it helps you reduce variance by making the flukes flukes and making the overall result be pressure on your opponent.

The second part of Comesana Darderi that was interesting was the genuine surprise of Darderi. Comesana’s shot selection seemed to genuinely confuse him. Not in the style of Djokovic or Federer where they’re making you look bad or constantly finding the open court, but almost a “why the heck would you hit that”. Comesana doesn’t just hit to the open court, and he doesn’t adhere to the traditionally coached patterns. At times, he hit the ball right down the middle. Others, he had control and hit the ball half speed right at Darderi. He stayed deep after hitting good angles, but at other times he went right at Darderi with an average ball and rushed the net late. The result was freezing one of the better defenders on clay, and it was clear that this matchup problem will continue whenever they play. That’s one reason that I somewhat expect Berrettini to fare better in this matchup. His whole game is serve + forehand, and I expect him to come to net anytime he can. It’s a spot where Comesana can win, but he’ll have to do it by outlasting Berrettini. Comesana will have to adopt a deep return position here, and I don’t think he has the weight on his average shots to keep Matteo from controlling things.

If it goes deep, you would like Comesana’s fitness over Berrettini’s. Comesana also will feel pretty good in the backhand exchanges. Berrettini has a good slice, but his two-hander is one of the worst on tour. The path is there for Comesana, but he’ll have to force Berrettini to play long points, and thus far that hasn’t been done. Fucsovics struggled on defense, and so did Rinderknech. I like Berrettini here in 4.

Faria vs Tiafoe :

Tiafoe is one of the best entertainers on tour, and he had one of the best press moments of the week. When asked about his chances now that Sinner and Alcaraz are out, he was positive, but added “as much as I want to say I got an opportunity, a lot of guys I lose to aren’t Alcaraz and Sinner”. The self-awareness is good, and Tiafoe’s season has been marked by gritty wins. He adopted the 75 hard program, which is something like 2 workouts a day, mandatory reading, healthy eating, a gallon of water a day, and overall the things that you think pro tennis players are doing anyway. A lot of them aren’t though. Tiafoe’s tennis isn’t at it’s best right now, but the work he has put in has made him hard to beat. Hurkacz broke him late in the 3rd when Tiafoe was serving for the match and won the 4th, and still Tiafoe had enough left in the tank physically and emotionally to hang around and win. It’s that grit that makes him a small favorite here.
Faria is having a great RG. He qualified easily, and has won both his matches in straight sets. Shapovalov and Struff are solid wins, and he was never really in trouble against them. His baseline game is solid, and he hits big on his forehand. He’s a pretty good server for a claycourt specialist, and fans will remember when he played a great match against Djokovic in Australia a season ago so his game isn’t limited to one surface. If this was an earlier round, I might like Faria, and I still think this will be close since he’s playing well. As things go deep though, I think Tiafoe is a little more physically durable, and his serve and forehand are often the biggest and safest weapon at the end of matches. Tiafoe has one of the better kick serves of the hardcourt specialists, and that pays dividends on clay. It’s hard to hit big in the pressure moments, and players tend to roll the ball in a bit. Tiafoe’s forehand technique allows him to hit over these balls and send stuff cross-court that has a lot of movement off the ground. It lets him apply pressure without risk late in matches, so I think this will be very close early and gradually Tiafoe will pull away as the match-fatigue sets in for both. Tiafoe in 4-5.

Arnaldi vs Collignon :

Arnaldi had a good win against Tsitsipas last round, and he’s had a great month overall. Normally, he’d be favored here, but Collignon turned in one of the best performances of the tournament last round against Shelton. He barely missed, served excellent, and his backhand was a wall. This is the Collignon who had so much buzz when he first got on tour last season, and him being fresh for this after two straight set wins will allow him to sprint. In a long match, you’d expect Arnaldi’s defending and scrappy attitude to start to make inroads, but he really doesn’t take the racquet out of his opponents hands. Collignon does have slightly slower lateral movement, but his backhand is more consistent and his forehand is a bit more accurate right now. Arnaldi has to wear him down, so while it will be close, I think Collignon has a full gas tank here and he’ll be able to win. Collignon in 4. Maybe he won’t manage to bring the same level as last round, but with the tournament wide open I think we will see a lot of players playing their peak level (as they do at 250 events) and Collignon’s peak is really impressive.

Auger-Aliassime vs Nakashima :

Really wouldn’t mind a simple match to predict here, but I’m thankful that this tournament is getting so interesting. Auger-Aliassime has gotten better round by round, and his play against Burruchaga was evidence of why he’s such a matchup problem in the majors. Felix doesn’t play such a varied game, so players can often hang in baseline rallies well. His game isn’t filled with clean winners or creative shots, but he does hit a heavy ball almost every shot. Everyone on tour has some amount of perfect tennis in them. They come in at their optimal level, and they’re able to hang onto their serves and convert setups and do everything. Whether its due to fatigue, or running out of focus, there’s a dropoff point for most athletes. One of the best things about Nadal playing every point like it was match point early in his career is that over time, his ability to focus for long periods was developed, and by the time he was a top player, he just had more optimal tennis in the bank than most of the rest of the tour. A guy like Ruud had 1 perfect set in him early in his career, but after that it would be a tug of war. The point of all this is that once the edge is off, Felix becomes a problem. He’s active with his feet, and he gets a lot of forehands. He hits such a heavy ball that it’s tough to wrestle control back, and since he’s not going for anything hyper-aggressive, opponents can feel trapped. Add that to his serve which tends to get better as matches go on, and it makes him at his best in difficult conditions at majors.

Nakashima had a long day against Luca Van Assche, but managed to get the job done. It isn’t the best result on paper, but Van Assche was playing really consistent so I am impressed by the win. FAA won the one previous matchup against Nakashima, but it was in 2022 so we can toss that. My math here is pretty simple. Felix beat Burruchaga, and that’s a much better win than LVA. Felix also seems to calm down a bit later in events, and Nakashima’s losses on clay have all been to heavy hitters (Blockx, Fils, Basilashvili) I think Brandon is a bit like Mboko and Jovic in that he’s playing well on clay but isn’t totally comfortable with the surface yet. Normally I might even like him in backhand exchanges because Felix’s timing can disappear at times, but on clay I think it’s pretty even. With Nakashima’s serving and commitment to staying consistent from the baseline, and Felix’s slow starts, this will probably be another close match. FAA in 5.

Kouame vs Tabilo :

Order me one Kouame jersey please. I cannot say enough about this kid. He is going to be incredible, but he is already very good. Heading into this event, there was a lot of hype surrounding his future, but his results were mostly middling at the lower level (Challengers). He had lost to Vasami, Bonzi, Kypson, and while these are solid players, I wouldn’t have guessed he’d beat Vallejo in the manner he did. 

Kouame is 17, and there’s a bit of buzz that physically he won’t be up for this match, but I’m not so sure. He played 5 hours with Vallejo, and at the end of the match he wasn’t even breathing hard. Moise has done the work and is already very fit. There are more reasons to be excited about his game though. He has Gasquet in his camp, and that is a beautiful mind to bounce ideas off. Gasquet is one of the masters on tour of playing economical tennis, and of not always playing at one speed. Kouame has adopted his demeanor on tour, and his composure in pressure moments was excellent. The last and most obvious thing is his tennis. Late in the fifth there were a number of long rallies, and at the end of a bunch of them, Kouame hit clean winners with his backhand down the line. To have that balance and decision-making and to execute in a huge moment is a great sign. He also took the pace off on some serves and made sure to hit a big kick wide. In the fifth set tiebreaker he was up 6-1 early, but when the score got tied up at 6-6, he didn’t crack. It was a mature performance, and he deserves to be in this round.

Kouame’s camp will know best how he’s feeling, but I think this match should be good. I would expect Vallejo to take at least a set off Tabilo, and I think Kouame can do the same. Tabilo is pretty fresh for this, and the round off (forfeit against Vacherot) will let him get in extra practice sessions and come out firing. Tennis-wise, Tabilo is more active about playing offense than Kouame. Moise tends to allow himself to play a bit behind the baseline, and while the composure and solid defending are good, Tabilo’s forehand can hit through the court very easily, and his serve will put you in bad positions often. I’m expecting a close match, but Tabilo’s offense will be a key in big moments that Vallejo was somewhat missing. Tabilo in 4.

Cobolli vs Tien :

Me trying to guess who will recover well for a match does not feel like a game I’m qualified to play. Tien is on a great streak here, and probably the worst result in the run was his 5 set win against Diaz Acosta. Lefty vs lefty on clay can often produce strange results, and I think Tien himself would tell you that his shot selection is entirely geared toward beating righties. Learner has tons of experience playing long matches, but if you were ever going to predict Tien finally hits a wall, it’s here. He has a difficult task ahead against Cobolli, who has won in straight sets in what has been a pretty calm draw for him. Cobolli hits a really heavy forehand, and is comfortable on clay. He’s fresher, and despite Tien’s run being impressive, a lot of the matches were very close. Cobolli also has the stamina and defense to play a long one against Tien, so I am leaning towards this being the end of the road to Tien. At this point in the event, there is no reason for anyone to doubt themselves, so this should be a battle. Cobolli in 5. I do like him to grind down Tien into errors, but there’s no quit in Tien and I think Cobolli is the more powerful but also the more inconsistent player, so it will take a while.

Cerundolo F. vs Svajda :

This is a very unexpected appearance for Svajda, but it will give him some points to play with as he heads into better conditions. Cerundolo is capable of spraying unforced errors and getting frustrated, but he is way better on clay than Svajda at this point and will be the bigger hitter. He thrives in that situation, so I’m expecting this to be Cerundolo in 3-4.