2026 Roland Garros Men's Round One - Remaining Matches
Men’s Singles :
Auger-Aliassime vs Altmaier :
Altmaier is best on clay and has had close matches with Felix on hardcourt, but FAA is a player whose talent and ballstriking are dragging him through most of the time anyway. He’s capable of losing in an early round to anyone in the 2/3 format because he makes errors and can lose timing on one or more wings, but once he gets dug into an event he does well, and similar to Zverev he gets a decent boost from the 3/5 format because he has more time to find his rhythm and his physical prowess tends to make him the better player as things go deep. I think this will be competitive based on their previous matches and Felix’s three set loss to Kovacevic last week (who’s honestly a bit worse than Altmaier), but FAA’s serve and forehand give him a good chance of dragging his way through this. He also beat Altmaier 3,3 in Hamburg so he seems to do a little better in the matchup on slow surfaces. FAA in 4.
Baez vs Burruchaga :
It’s strange to watch Baez miss shots, but I guess it should have been equally strange to watch him barely ever miss during his first few years on tour. This is a player who would pretty much guarantee a few finals on clay each season, and now he can barely get to the second half of a draw. It sets up a clash with Burruchaga where I think both players will believe they can win and need to win. Burruchaga had a great run on American clay earlier this year in Houston, losing to Tommy Paul in the finals. Since then his resulted have sort of fizzled out. Comparing that to Baez, who really hasn’t had many wins at all, it seems like Burruchaga is the favorite here. The final wrinkle in my brand of lazy data analysis is that Baez beat him in two in their previous. Overall, “idk” would be the best guess of who wins this. I think Baez is still capable of a high level, but I have to see it before I believe it. Burruchaga in 4. He’s just hitting better right now and if you have to think about missing it becomes really difficult to play well on clay (for Baez).
Bautista-Agut vs Nakashima :
Nakashima continues to be a matchup problem for a lot of players. He serves better than the baseliners, and he plays more steady from the baseline than the offensive players. If you do anything at the top tier, you can beat him, but anything in the mid-range and he just edges you out. Here, I think his serve is a boost, and he just beat RBA 4,0 in Rome. Bautista-Agut used to be one of the top 10 most reliable players on tour and had a ton of beautiful matches against the top tier pros, but now it seems like his mobility has faded enough to make him more of a 100-200 range player. Nakashima in 3-4.
Bublik vs Struff :
Bublik has suffered two crushing losses to Tien in the past few weeks, but he dug in harder in the second one which is the sign I need to believe in him. Him and Struff both possess big serves and great offense, but Bublik has way more variety and is more tactically and technically sound on the court. Struff probably will get it going on grass, but it has been one of his worst seasons ever. Bublik in 3.
Buse vs Rublev :
Buse just won the title in Hamburg and it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. He has been pulling upsets all year and his commitment to trying to put back one extra shot is the type of grit and hustle that always pays off. Here, I think the thought is that he’ll be a little tired, but also that Rublev is capable of scoring if he gets Buse on defense. Buse’s game has a solid and well placed serve, and he tends to wear down his opponent’s backhand. Rublev’s backhand isn’t such a great target, and while he’s easily moved by events and emotions, in the first round here after a short break from tennis I think he’ll be adequately focused. Buse comes in in great form, but I think fatigue and the step up in competition are a rough one. Rublev in 4-5.
Carreño-Busta vs Lehecka :
It’s been a rough return to the tour for PCB but he somehow got himself back in the top 100. He withdrew from his last match against Munar so I’m not expecting much here. Lehecka in 3-4. The risk with Jiri is always that he continuously sends the ball 4 feet past the baseline or into the net and doesnt change tactics, but he’s turned in enough good performances this season to ignore the rough ones.
Cerundolo F. vs Van De Zandschulp :
Cerundolo has dished out some crushing defeats to players this season. When he finds his timing and is the bigger hitter, he can really win game after game. He has the ability to generate power and depth from anywhere on the court, and he’s best on clay. This is a good spot for him, as Botic withdrew from his last match, and since Botic lost 3,0 to Cerundolo in Munich. Cerundolo in 3.
Cilic vs Kouame :
It seems like Cilic will still be slightly too good for Kouame to win, but this is a decent spot for him. If he can wear Cilic down, there are some injury forfeits in Marin’s recent history, and the crowd will certainly give the talented junior huge support. Kouame moves well, has great touch, and seems like he’ll make his way on tour around the beginning of 2028. It’s a weight class issue right now, as he can play tremendous tennis but does tend to have to do a lot more running than his opponents. Cilic in 4; he’s often a very good frontrunner and he has the offense to punish Kouame (who lost his last 3 at the Challenger level).
Cobolli vs Pellegrino :
Pellegrino had a great performance in qualifying and had a great run in Rome. He’s done the physical work to get in shape, and clay suits his game well since he has a very heavy forehand and good stamina. Is this too much is the question here. Cobolli has won their last three meetings, and despite losing a few of his last matches, he probably wins the backhand exchanges here and is familiar with Pellegrino’s patterns. Cobolli in 3 close sets.
Collignon vs Vukic :
Vukic occasionally plays decent on clay, but Collignon is at his best on the surface. I think this is the best spot in the draw that Collignon could have asked for as he’s playing another big hitter in conditions where he’s slightly uncomfortable. Raphael should get ample chances to use his clay experience to chip away and score the points that hardcourt specialists often give up, and he serves as well as Vukic. I’m expecting Collignon to win in 3, but maybe it takes 4 if Vukic serves well.
De Minaur vs Samuel :
Excellent qualifying run by Samuel, and this should be a good experience for him. De Minaur has struggled a bit this season, but he had a good run last week in Hamburg and should be able to navigate this. Samuel has an excellent backhand down the line, and a very stable base, but he doesn’t serve quite big enough to give Alex a lot of trouble. There’s a bright future for Samuel, but this seems to be too big of a task from the baseline right now. De Minaur in 3.
Diaz Acosta vs Zhang :
Zhang has had big trouble getting momentum going this season, so this is a tough spot. The hole in Zhang’s game besides unforced errors is his backhand, so playing a talented lefty in good form is a tough proposition. Zhang’s power and serving can make him competitive, but Diaz Acosta’s goal is always to wear you down and outlast you, so he won’t mind if this goes deep. Diaz Acosta in 4.
Faria vs Shapovalov :
This is one of those funny spots where I expect Shapo to lose, but he’s still allowed to play tennis and that complicates things. He plays too aggressively on clay and it leads to errors, and his service motion tends to collapse inward on big points which leads to double faults, but Denis is still an excellent talent. He has a good serve, he has a forehand that has good pace, and his backhand can uncork some nice winners. He moves well, and overall this is a pretty even match as a result. While I like his game on paper, Shapo’s head is not there. He needs someone to teach him how to play tennis, and maybe more importantly to let him see a different perspective about his time on court so he doesn’t blow up when adversity comes. Djokovic seemed to mostly solve this problem, and fewer tantrums doesn’t mean “this is who you really are”, it means progress. Time spent in a new mode becomes a new you, and regression to old behaviors doesn’t mean you’re still infected. It matters in life what seeds we water. The less we water the seeds of aggression and ego, the less likely they are to be our choices in key moments. Anyway, I like Faria to come through here, but I don’t think these upsets are guaranteed when the hardcourt name they’re projected to beat is a bit more dangerous overall. Faria was good in qualifying, but those are slightly lower tier players. Expecting a long one here. Faria in 4-5.
Faurel vs Vacherot :
Faurel had a great run through qualifying, and for a French junior to make his first major at Roland Garros must be a great feeling. I don’t think he has the offense to hang onto this, so I’m expecting Vacherot in 3.
Fearnley vs Cerundolo J.M. :
Fearnley can be really bad at times, so JM has to be the pick here, I just haven’t really thought of Juan as the most reliable player lately. Fearnley has won a lot of sets in his recent losses, and did just beat Kovacevic in Rome qualifying. It sets up a spot where I think Fearnley should lose, but if he’s hitting the court I don’t think it’s so straightforward. Hitting the court is the big issue. Jacob has thrown in some dismal performances and dealt with injuries and unforced errors are exactly how JM wins. The flipside is that Cerundolo gives you control of the rallies quite often and can get very pushy and Fearnley takes the ball down the lines well which can really create an issue for a defensive player. I’m not gonna call for Fearnley’s big win when he’s lost so many recently, but I don’t think either player’s game is in particularly dominant form. Cerundolo in 4.
Fucsovics vs Berrettini :
Fucsovics has lost his last 4 in a row, and three of them are in straight sets. I mention that because the path past Berrettini is to wear him down. He’s not physically strong right now, but if you’re losing the early sets then it won’t matter. Fucsovics is a grinder but a loss to Carreño-Busta in three tells me he’s not really playing that consistent, and that gives Berrettini’s serve and shoot style a boost. Berrettini in 4. Both of these guys are in bad shape right now, so I would not feel too confident in either.
Garin vs Tien :
As usual, I’m trying to avoid discussing gambling, but sometimes there is a peculiar price. Sportsbooks are the worst, and have very little oversight in most countries due to bribes and local gaming commissions not really doing their jobs. Gambling can be a fun hobby or a wildly difficult occupation, but that would only be in a world where gambling was properly regulated and where casinos and bookmakers were not free to try to gouge and claw every last coin from everyone who walks through the doors. Anyway, Tien just won a title and Garin just lost to Midon and Squire. These things are not the same, yet Giron is only +145 for this match. He has a win in Indian Wells again Tien in 2023, but there is nothing about their recent play or trajectory that would indicate Garin should win here. I like Tien here, but when you see such a strange line, in a spot where the general public almost guaranteed to pile in on Tien (after a title win), it should raise some alarm bells. When corrupt people give you something for a nice price, there is usually a catch.
Gaston vs Monfils :
Somehow Gaston and Monfils have never played, but this is one I’d like to umpire just to get close. These two are supremely skilled and play largely for the crowd at this point. They both could use the result since their seasons are not going well, but I think this one is for the fans, especially since Monfils is retiring soon. Gaston has been terrible but played hard the last week weeks, and Monfils has been inactive but has the speed and defense to deal with Gaston’s dropshot heavy offerings. I’d lean towards Monfils because I think Gaston will not be fully committed to winning and I also think he’s not in great form.
Griekspoor vs Arnaldi :
Griekspoor finally stopped his skid last week with two wins against Molcan and Bonzi in Bordeaux. I think it’s a good sign that he’s still working even though he’s in a slump. He’s actually facing a player whose slump seemed to finally end out of nowhere. Arnaldi won the Cagliari Challenger and then managed to beat Munar and De Minaur in Rome before falling to Jodar in three. It was a great run and him hitting the court makes him into a top 50 player almost instantly. Both these guys will like their chances, but I think Arnaldi has put in more work into getting his defensive abilities back so he can win a long one. Arnaldi in 5.
Hijikata vs Paul :
Tommy Paul just made the finals in Hamburg, and despite having some lingering ab and back issues from time to time I think he’ll recover in time to win this. Hijikata just doesn’t have the weapons to hurt Tommy unless he’s exhausted. Paul in 3.
Humbert vs Mannarino :
Massive credit to Mannarino for playing as many clay events as he could. Humbert in 3.
Kokkinakis vs Atmane :
Surprising to see Kokkinakis use a protected ranking for this event with not much prep. Atmane is in decent form lately and will be able to greatly trouble Thanasi’s backhand here. The same may be true for Kokkinakis since Atmane’s backhand delivery is a bit ornate, but I think Atmane is just sharper. Atmane in 3.
Kopriva vs Moutet :
Hasn’t been a lot of buzz from the Moutet world lately, and I think this is a tough matchup for him. Kopriva has a really good backhand and is very professional. He doesn’t get flustered, he is very polished, and he plays within himself. This is a good formula against a guy who struggles with emotions and forces shots at times. I think Kopriva will wear him down as this goes on, and the hometown crowd is more of an issue when your opponent is emotional. Kopriva in 4-5.
Kovacevic vs Jodar :
Kovacevic is starting to find his game, but Rafa Jodar is the most exciting story of this year. He had a good showing in the Next Gen finals, but the results have been astonishing, and more important (to me) is the style of tennis he plays. He’s extremely aggressive and very spirited on the court, and it doesn’t really force him into a lot of errors and streaky play. The kid is excellent, and his height makes me think that once he has his adult strength he’s going to be able to breeze through early rounds matches. Here I think Jodar is too much from the baseline, so I’m expecting him to win in 3-4.
Landaluce vs Prado Angelo :
Landaluce isn’t really the dominant force on clay, and last year I would have thought this was even. This season though, Landaluce has found his composure and looks a bit more physically mature. Prado Angelo did amazing to qualify for his first major, but this is a tough matchup because JPA doesn’t really play a huge brand of offense. I think Landaluce will have a chance to ply his offense and his serving will make a difference here. Landaluce in 4. Even though he’s the better player I don’t really think he’s that consistent just yet.
Merida Aguilar vs Shelton :
This is tough draw for Merida Aguilar because of his style. He’s a clay specialist, but he goes hyper-aggressive out there and I think a better formula to beat Shelton on clay is to wear him down and bore him. So far, Ben has really done well on clay, and exceeded expectations given his game style. He’s a little more patient, and seems to enjoy clay-court tennis. His kick-serve will make this a problem for Merida who isn’t the tallest player, and I think trading highlight shots is something Shelton is interested in. This should be fun, but I think Shelton in 3-4.
Muller vs Tsitsipas :
Tsitsipas is playing decent lately, and while his attitude is still silly, his forehand is back to being a good weapon. Muller has been in a slump and his usual path to victory is outlasting opponents, so playing a good athlete in a first round is a bad time. Tsitsipas in 3.
Munar vs Hurkacz :
Their only previous meeting was in the 2018 Next Gen Finals, which is interesting because it was a 5 set match. Munar being able to deal with him well on hardcourt a million years ago isn’t a great data point, but I think this will be close. Munar thrives on frustrating opponents and playing very consistent, and he locates his serve well. He has the same attitude problem as Ostapenko, so the trouble for him here is dealing with the points where Hurkacz is unplayable. Munar has just started to win matches again, but Hurkacz isn’t really dominant on clay since it slows everything about his game down a bit. I think this is about even, and will come down to whether Hurkacz gets fatigued as the match drags on. Hurkacz in 4 or Munar in 5.
Nava vs Ugo Carabelli :
This could be one of the most interesting contests of the first round. Carabelli has consistently won matches on tour this season, and Nava has pulled himself into the top 100 with a bunch of tremendous qualifier performances and tour level wins. He plays hyper aggressive, but this season he’s ironed out his issues with unforced errors. Carabelli tends to play a more simple and conservative game, so I think Nava will win the early exchanges. As the match drags on, the question is whether he can maintain that level, and I think Carabelli might be a bit stronger physically. It’s a good run through qualifying, but I think this is a step up in levels and Camilo has beaten some higher tier players recently. Carabelli in 5.
Navone vs Brooksby :
Navone just made the finals in Geneva, and he played more aggressively there than he usually does. This spells trouble for Brooksby, who plays well on clay but tends to try to outlast his opponents. Brooksby has lost his last 14 sets, so I’m not going to expect a huge reversal here. This is a spot where he’ll have to play his absolute best for 4 hours to win, and that hasn’t happened thus far. Navone in 3.
Norrie vs Vallejo :
Vallejo is coming off a finals in Valencia, and Norrie is worried about a rib injury. It doesn’t really make me think Norrie will win. If Cam is playing well, he can get the win here because he has more variety, but I think Vallejo starts as the favorite. The trouble for Vallejo is he plays fairly straightforward and hits huge, and when Norrie defends well, I think it’s hard to avoid unforced errors. I could see a world where Vallejo burns out and gets frustrated, but if Cam is not 100% I don’t really want to pick him, and since he has sort of a dickish attitude and exhibits dickish behavior, I don’t really want to see him win here. He can win later. Vallejo in 4.
Ofner vs Darderi :
Darderi is having a tremendous season, but he’s been looking a little flat at times also. It’s hard to tell where fatigue will arise with him lately, but almost all his losses look like he’s running on fumes. It makes this a bit interesting. Ofner hits huge, serves big, and formerly was pretty good on clay. He lost to Feldbausch a week ago which isn’t great, but he played well against Sinner in Rome and defeated Michelsen. Given Darderi’s approach to tennis (long rallies and heavy forehands), I think Ofner will be able to do a decent job here. Darderi has to remain the favorite, but I worry about his stamina and I think this will take some time and some luck to get done. Darderi in 4.
Popyrin vs Svajda :
Popyrin’s serving and forehand power have proven effective on clay, and Svajda is really more suited to hardcourts at this juncture. Popyrin in 4. I’d say straight sets, but Popyrin really needs the same coach Shapo does.
Quinn vs Comesana :
Quinn’s shot selection on clay is a bit frustrating for me. He has the power to play offense, but it feels like he’s always trying to escape rallies and I don’t think his mobility and future on the surface require that level of immediate action. Quinn’s forehand is the biggest weapon on this court, and even though Comesana has more experience and is solid on clay, his recent play has been a roller coaster. Not having that consistent level of ballstriking is an issue, and against a more capable offensive opponent I think it will be a little bit tricky to win this. Comesana did just win in Monte Carlo 7-5, 6-2, so I’m going to say this goes the distance. Quinn is playing better, but Comesana I guess is still expected to win. Comesana in 5.
Rinderknech vs Rodionov :
Solid matchup here. Rodionov is a tall lefty with booming groundstrokes. He can be a bit inconsistent on defense, but with control or a break he’s likely to win a set. Rinderknech is a similar story, as he has a huge serve and good offense, but he’s a little more durable on defense. That’s probably the edge here, and Rinderknech’s more stable wing on defense is his backhand which may help a bit against Rodionov. Their last match was a three set Rinderknech win in 2023 on clay, and before that they split on hardcourt so I would not expect this to be a quick match. Rodionov kinda smoked everyone’s boots in qualifying, and his first serve win % was above 70 in every round (at 89% in the finals), so the upset is sort of on the table. Since Rinderknech had a good week in Geneva, I’ll take him in 4-5.
Ruud vs Safiullin :
Safiullin is back! He’s an exciting and powerful player, so this should be fun. I don’t think he’s back to peak form, so this is a huge ask, but it’ll be good tv. Ruud in 3-4.
Shevchenko vs Michelsen :
Shevchenko grunts later and louder than everyone else on tour. He has a shot here, since Michelsen isn’t great on clay, but Shevchenko tends to do better in long points where he can wear his opponents down. Michelsen hits too big for this, and serves too big. This is a spot where Shevchenko needs to win all the baseline rallies and get this into a 3rd hour before he starts to thrive. I’m expecting Michelsen to win in 3-4.
Sinner vs Tabur :
There is a lot to say about Sinner at this event. This is the easiest chance on paper for him to get his first French Open. The draw seems wide open. His closest comp are guys he’s been pulling away from and was already dominating. He’s in great form and has won the last 5 tournaments he played. He now has all the Masters 1000 titles, and this week is now somewhat about work. When you have a challenge, you dig in. When you’re expected to win though, it becomes about efficiency and focus. Take care of the task at hand, and you can enjoy things afterwards. There might be an understandable asterisk left on his trophy case until he beats Alcaraz at RG, but right now that isn’t available. I’ll go deeper into Sinner’s moment here, but for now, time for what you want to hear about. Clement Tabur.
Deep in the night, drums begin to sound. Clement Tabur! Bats flee their caves, for they are startled by the sonic waves. Clement Tabur! Villages rejoice, for their champion has arrived. Clement Tabur! Opponents google, for they are not sure who he is. Clement Tabur! Hometown hero Clement Tabur is about to put on a show, and we might not even deserve it. Tabur is an incredibly interesting player to me. If you watch highlights, it’s hard to tell how he’s winning. He hits really clean, but it doesn’t seem to be either wing that’s doing the work. He has nice technique, but the ball does not appear to be moving fast. He’s the type of smooth French player who makes the game look easy, and jokes aside the fact that he has such clean hitting and doesn’t force anything means him and Sinner will be a very enjoyable watch. Sinner in 3 of course, but some enjoyable tennis. CLEMENT TABUR.
Spizzirri vs Tiafoe :
Tiafoe’s not really playing great lately but his commitment to training has dragged him through a lot of close matches. This should be a simple win. Spizzirri is a solid baseliner but he’s not great on clay and he hasn’t been too active on tour. Tiafoe in 3.
Tabilo vs Majchrzak :
This one could be trickier than expected. Majchrzak hasn’t been successful in his last few outtings but he has a Challenger title on clay in 2025 and some decent tour level wins. He’s very agile and consistent when he’s playing well and that can enable him to focus on Tabilo’s backhand which is half a weakness. I like Tabilo better against offensive players than I do against baseliners, so while Tabilo is in better form, this could be close. Tabilo is a player like Darderi who I think is gradually starting to run on fumes. Tabilo in 4.
Walton vs Medvedev :
Medvedev somehow made the semifinals in Rome after getting 0,0 in Monte Carlo, and it’s nice to see him putting in the effort on a surface that clearly can break him mentally. His set win against Sinner was mostly about Sinner hitting a physical wall, but it still required Medvedev to dig in and play a lot of clutch points to get there. He has no expectations here despite the Rome run, and Walton is a simple opponent to start off with. Walton isn’t really much on clay, so I think Medvedev in 3-4 is likely. I include the 4 because as Daniil noted in press, (paraphrasing) “I played well here but got 0,0 in Monte Carlo so”.
Wawrinka vs De Jong :
Nice draw for both. Wawrinka has shown signs of life lately, but stamina remains an issue. He can play huge offense for a while, but it seems like his opponents can expect his tennis to drop off slightly around the two hour mark. Wawrinka doesn’t start playing worse, but I think it becomes clear that he doesn’t want to take extra steps. He starts making squash gets rather than taking an extra step and hitting through, and while this is fine and his slices are excellent, it sort of relinquishes control of rallies which isn’t ideal when you want to run less. It means he has to recover to center and then wait to see what comes, and these little footwork drills get slower and slower and slower as things go. I’m being a bit dramatic because Stan is still capable of playing on tour, but it is the hole in his game. Jesper De Jong has all the tools to win this, but he has some losses around this level also. He should look to drag this match out as much as possible even with the lead, especially since he’ll lose the crowd quickly if Wawrinka gets momentum. De Jong in 5 and it feels like that’s as easily as he can possibly win.
Wu vs Giron :
The winner of this plays Cobolli so I feel safe making a potential error. Neither one are great on clay. I think Wu has made more effort to be active on the surface, and hits the ball a bit more with the right style for the surface, but it’s going to be hard for him to play the very aggressive style he does for a long match. It’s not clear to me whether Giron will drag this out, or cough up errors. Wu in 4 is my best guess, but it feels wrong even as I type it.