2026 Australian Open Women's Finals 🐢
Women’s Singles :
Sabalenka vs Rybakina :
The finals is here, and it’s probably going to be one of the highest quality matches we’ve seen in quite some time. Sabalenka and Rybakina have both come through a ton of unique tests along the way, and the usual challengers have been defeated. They’re both near their peak level, and Sabalenka may have actually hit a new peak. This is guaranteed to be extremely satisfying tennis, and neither player appears to be dealing with too much fatigue or any injury issues heading in so this should deliver.
On paper it felt like Rybakina had the tougher semifinal, but I’m not so sure. Svitolina came into the match playing her best level, and hitting the ball bigger than she has in a long time. She was T serving well, and her forehand was as strong as I’ve seen it. Her level didn’t disappear against Sabalenka, it just plain didn’t matter. Second serves got dismissed, her best first serves came back with interest, and any rally where Aryna got a full swing immediately saw her gain control. Since the Potapova match, it has been one of the most comprehensive performances by Sabalenka and the semifinals put an exclamation point on it. Sabalenka’s power has always been a thing but she has almost completely cut out the unforced errors. She has added dropshots to her game and is coming to net a bit now. The volume of big matches she’s been in and the consistent winning has her feeling more and more comfortable on the court.
The announcers pointed out that Svitolina had sort of started overhitting, and that made her a bit predictable. It also made her lose a bit of depth on her shots, but honestly I think announcers sometimes overlook the physical demand of being on court. Playing Sabalenka means you’re constantly under threat of having to run a sprint. Not forcing shots and playing within yourself looks simple from the outside, but on the court the physical exertion is generally at max when you’re losing. Despite tennis being the thing we play, what we really want is to play tennis where we have time to prepare and to have proper shot selection. A chance to breathe in rallies or a second to wind up feels really important when you’re not getting that, so the tendency is to go bigger and bigger to try to get control. It didn’t work here, but I think Svitolina navigated the situation well. It may feel like waiting for your opponent’s level to drop makes sense from the outside, but on the court when they’ve already played an entire set without blinking there’s not a great argument for it.
While Sabalenka has showed an unreal level, Rybakina has found what resembles her best tennis. Pegula came in playing exceptional ball and she’s one of the more consistent baseliners on the tour, so it was a perfect test for Elena. To her credit, Rybakina managed the situation well for 2/3 of the match. She was pretty unplayable in the first set, and the difference in ball-striking was evident. Pegula was playing solid, but only her forehand down the line really seemed to throw Rybakina off. Trading cross-court was a net loss, so the options were very limited. In the second set, Rybakina’s focus started to dwindle. Pegula saved 3 match points, and Rybakina’s serve faltered in the next game while serving at 5-4. Rybakina served for the match again at 6-5, but eventually needed a tiebreaker to close out. It was a good result to get done in 2, and the chances at the end just sort of illustrate the story here. Rybakina is just able to generate more break points on Pegula’s serve, so she tends to win the matchup if her percentages are good.
For the finals, I don’t think either player’s level will drop. These two have given each other the business in the past so both will think they have a decent shot. So far they’ve played each other a ridiculous 17 times (including international comps and exhibitions), and the results really do go back and forth. The last meeting was a Rybakina win in Riyadh at the World Tour Finals, but I think Rybakina was a little bit better there and Sabalenka wasn’t anywhere near the level shown here. What was cool about that match was they were 0/5 and 1/6 on break point, and that’s the type of high level offense we’ll be treated to this match. In that match, Sabalenka was 12/26 winners to unforced errors. That’s something to seriously look out for early in this match. Sabalenka has been making really clean contact throughout this event, but she’s been the bigger hitter in all matches. The only one where she actually struggled was against Potapova, and Potapova was swinging for the fences. It makes a difference. Since Rybakina hits so big, if she’s throwing off Sabalenka’s timing, it could be a long day.
The big difference between these two for me is their mobility. When Sabalenka is scrambling, she’s able to put an extra get or two back. She has some moderately good squash gets and slices, and while they’re likely to get dismissed, they at least test her opponent. On the flipside, I feel Rybakina won’t be able to defend the open court. Numerous times this past week we’ve seen players hit clean past her if the angle is good or if she’s shifted her body weight the other direction. Rybakina is by no means a servebot, but she has to make optimal choices with the ball because her lateral speed just isn’t great. For Sabalenka, wide serves are going to pay dividends. Rybakina does tend to go aggressive with her returns at times, but Sabalenka’s pace on serve should keep her from making really clean contact. Given the slight lapse in level in the second set against Pegula and the first set being very close against Swiatek, I think Sabalenka wins at least one set. Rybakina should be close in one and possibly could win, but I think in a third Sabalenka will be the player able to score a bit easier. There has been only 1 three setter since the third round (Gauff/Muchova), but this one feels like it could go the distance. I’ll be happy if it does, but for me Sabalenka has displayed the higher level and the mobility and athleticism disparities should let her convert a bit more comfortably. Sabalenka in 3.