2026 Australian Open Men's & Women's Semifinals - Day 1
Men’s Semifinals :
Alcaraz vs Zverev :
How do you defeat someone whose idea of fun is you trying to beat them? That remains the question with Alcaraz. The more you apply pressure the more he locks in. Alcaraz still goes a bit too big at times, but plan B is always a quick reversion to powerful ball-striking and speedy retrieving. The trouble with having him on the ropes is that if you don’t close out, or try to reset the rally, he has the power in one swing to take control of the rally. For De Minaur, it was a very frustrating match. He played excellent in stretches and as a spectator it was a great watch, but it has become clear once again that improving his gamestyle is not enough to overcome the disparity in RPMs. Alcaraz is able to create problems with his normal shots, and Alex has to put so much more work into timing and accuracy on the average shot. It looks fine in the beginning, but as mental fatigue sets in from playing so many difficult points, his timing starts to suffer a little. When he tries to infuse pace to escape a rally, errors flow. Alex improved his serving a bit in the off-season, but the trajectory is still not that high, so Carlos is able to drop back a little and guarantee returns in play.
Overall, it is just very difficult for Alex to score on Carlos from neutral. With control of time he does well, but there is pressure to convert every one of those points. His backhand is not strong enough and he doesn’t get enough spin on his shots to stay safe. I do think that Alcaraz takes a while to find his range in this matchup, because since De Minaur is hitting the ball fairly flat Carlos has to infuse all the pace and spin himself. Controlling that trajectory and deciding how big to go is a tough test, and you can see him playing tentative and lifting up a little on both wings early in the match. Once he has a lead though, there is no thought given to missing because he can afford to, and that really causes problems. I don’t know if it’s possible for De Minaur to revamp his backhand at this point, but that is the fastest route to making this match more even. Even someone like Ruud who has a fairly pedestrian backhand for a top player is able to roll over it and make Carlos swing a bit higher. I’m not trying to harp on Alex’s loss here because he had a great tournament, but every cross-court backhand exchange felt like he would only score if Alcaraz tried to go too big.
The Alcaraz win is impressive not because he played so magnificant (the first set was a tug of war and could have gone to Alex), but because it felt inevitable. It felt like Alcaraz would drag him down and his game would steadily go up. He is a good problem solver on the court, and the puppydog attitude and the hyper-aggressive shotmaking when he has a lead seem like they cost him games but the flipside is that he gets some range-finding in. That helps later in the match when he wants to go big.
Alcaraz’s next opponent is the right one. Zverev has played an incredibly solid level this event, and he’s had some classic matches against Alcaraz in the past. He beat him here in 2024, and beat him in the Turin event later that year. Fast forward til now, and they are in slightly different places. Alcaraz has racked up more big titles and sits atop the game, and Zverev has worked hard here to get back in position to claim his place at the top of the game. I think that is one issue here. Zverev sort of needs this win. A loss won’t change the narrative at all, but I think his goal is specifically to change that narrative. He’s been humble and personable in press, and he’s not putting too much pressure on himself here, but I think that hope is there. He’s gotten himself to a very high level and he’s serving really well.
This is a moment we’ve seen a few times this event already. Players do the work and level up, but the Peter principle applies sometimes and they eventually succeed until they find someone who’s just better. Bublik had a crushing time against De Minaur, Tiafoe had the same but handled it extremely well, Ruud found his ceiling against Shelton, and Medvedev’s resurgence ultimately got stopped against Tien. To me, how you handle those moments affects your future trajectory, but it also affects what happens in the match. If Zverev doesn’t blink or react when Alcaraz embarrasses him with a dropshot, or when he shanks a forehand, I think he will compete well here.
The quarterfinals was a good showing for Zverev. Tien returns well for his height, but returning well for your height is not good enough against Zverev this week. Learner did create some real problems for Zverev at times in rallies, but he had to basically be perfect from the baseline to make up for the serving disparity and it didn’t work. The set he won was one where he came from a mini-break down in the tiebreak twice, so it was a little bit lucky. The big key to this match for me was Zverev’s shot selection on his forehand. Almost every first shot with his forehand was hit down the line, and Tien was usually shifting towards his backhand wing so it left him a few feet behind the baseline over and over. Learner goes down the line well with his forehand, but from behind the baseline it’s hard to really hit winners. Zverev can be passive, but not this week, and not from inside the baseline. Once he gets up court he hits very clean, and he hit a number of winners with his forehand that did not look like the norm.
Alcaraz will be by far the best returner Zverev has faced so far, so there will be added pressure. Still, Zverev is serving well enough to get to the business end of sets. My problem with the opponent change here is that Zverev is no longer the bigger hitter. He will be under a bit of pressure here. Alcaraz does everything better than Tien except be adorable and that creates problems. I would say Zverev matches up better with Carlos than he does Jannik, so I am expecting this to be pretty close. Tennis isn’t transitive, but Alex got pretty close in the first set with smaller weapons. For me, Zverev is just not better. I think he looks very good when he’s the dominant player. Norrie and Tien are excellent, but they’re smaller, and not very efficient servers. Alcaraz also served incredibly mediocre against De Minaur, and won anyway. He’ll have to do more here, but I think he’s capable. I can’t point to the exact thing that Alcaraz can do to constantly score on Zverev, but I feel like his forehand has a major advantage if they trade cross-court. His backhand isn’t quite as solid as Zverev’s, but it might be a bit more versatile and I think Alcaraz deals with power well. So far Zverev has basically been close with players early and then pulled away, and I think that gets reversed here. Since Zverev is serving so well, hitting his forehand well, and has had success in the past, I think he will take a while to crack. Alcaraz in 4-5. I don’t think Zverev will revert totally to pushing, but his return to form puts him in the conversation, not the lead.
Women’s Singles :
Sabalenka vs Svitolina :
There are some excellent matchups left in this event, and this is one of the best for the women’s side. Both of these players have looked as good as they ever have this week, and last round didn’t change that. Sabalenka was able to safely defeat one of the sharper new phenoms on tour in the quarters. Iva Jovic came in playing some great ball, but it was clear early on that the moment Sabalenka got a full swing, the point was in her control. Jovic had just zipped Putintseva, and got zipped herself in the second set. It’s excellent play from Sabalenka, and she’ll need it because this is a version of Svitolina that is not always present at majors.
Svitolina played Gauff, and frankly it was a chicken egg situation. Was the match easy because Gauff lost her timing on her forehand and serve, or did those things disappear because of the pressure Svitolina applied? Gauff struggled with her game in a major way, but Svitolina did not blink or pay much attention to it. She hit the ball clean, sent constant winners, and looked extremely efficient. Even when Gauff got herself composed for a few games in the second, Svitolina just put the match away. The big points were smothered with aces and winners, and this is probably Svitolina’s best chance to win a major given her level. The only problem is that she’s been winning with power and serving, and here she’ll be second in that department.
Sabalenka has won the last four matches in a row against Svitolina. There have been some close sets, but it seems like Svitolina has to redline to hang even in the scoreline, and Sabalenka is able to take more chances because her serve is netting more points. Gauff is an excellent returner, but she did not hold serve until the second set. That won’t be the case against Sabalenka. Aryna has only been broken 8 times in the entire tournament. Svitolina is serving well also, but I think Sabalenka’s reach will allow her to get a few more T serves back on the ad side and that’s something Svitolina scored consistently with against Andreeva due to her reach and Gauff due to her forehand woes. I clearly made a mistake assuming Gauff would just find a way to grind Svitolina into errors, but Svitolina both earned and was given that win. Sabalenka won’t do the same, and I felt like Andreeva was making inroads into Svitolina’s game and Sabalenka will add a lot of weight to the ball that will make it tougher for Svitolina to execute on offense.
I love an upset, and I love a story. If Svitolina wins this the way Sabalenka is playing, then she could potentially win the finals, and that would be one of the best stories tennis has seen in a while. It would be an incredible start to the season. I do still feel that she needs some help here. Sabalenka getting frustrated or imploding can occur in a big moment as we saw against Gauff at last year’s French Open, but I think it is way more likely that this one will have to be earned. Sabalenka in 2 close sets. Svitolina is sharp but I think she’s had a power advantage in all her matches thus far and here it’s gone.
Oh. Right. Gauff smashed a racquet and I should talk about it. I said this somewhere else, but if you listen to Gauff’s press conferences you will hear that she has a good head on her shoulders. I trust her. If she smashes a racquet, that’s okay. I don’t think she’s above feeling emotional or making mistakes, that would honestly be ridiculous. Nobody is. If she makes mistakes though, she’ll learn from them, because that’s what most people do. You have to trust people, and help where you can.
As far as whether they should film it or not, I think there is a gap in the coverage. The announcers are not controlling what the feed is, and the producers/tech people are not really locked in on the matches. There are times where players are on the verge of tears and you know they’re going to sob once they get into the tunnel. The feed has shown these players before, until someone realizes what is happening and they cut away. The delay in that decision is palpable though. The feeds are on a 30-60 second delay (at least that’s how the US Open hookup is), but they rarely cut them out abruptly. Even when Bublik was cursing on the livestream during his De Minaur loss, the announcers just said “we apologize for that”. Nobody bleeped it out or cut away. The person we’re looking to blame probably doesn’t exist, and they were filming Gauff going into the locker room, not expecting her to smash her racquet.
As far as privacy, it’s tricky. How much do you wanna see? Do you wanna see people breaking down crying in their hotel rooms because they lost a match that’s going to haunt them for years? Do you want to see people arguing with their coaches in the moment and then apologizing to them later? The more you see of people lives the more you will see the parts that aren’t so comfortable to view. We all have on our best “in public” mask when we’re in the public eye, but it’s hard to wear that mask 24/7. The moment after a loss is probably when people are at their most reactive. Everyone has different refractory periods to recover and be fine for interactions and media, but it’s a time I generally think people should be left alone in. tl;dr I don’t like the hallway walk, and idk anyone whose racquet would be intact after that match.