2026 Australian Open Men's & Women's Semfinals - Remaining Matches

Men’s Singles :

Djokovic vs Sinner :

The quarterfinals that led to this matchup felt very different. Musetti vs Djokovic was a decent match, but a hard watch throughout. Musetti’s defense was just a little too good for Novak to end points, and he started to force the issue a bit which led to errors. Djokovic seemed to struggle defending to his forehand, and overall it looked like it he just didn’t have it that day. To add to the trouble, he required treatment for a pretty rough looking blister on his foot. In short, Musetti wasn’t having to do much outside his comfort zone, and he was winning. It was a little hard to watch because Djokovic was struggling so much. Then, in a strange twist of events, Musetti hurt himself. He began flexing his right leg, and the location of the injury meant there weren’t many options for taping it up. It appears to be a muscle tear, and Musetti was forced to retire up 2 sets and down a break. Having his first big win against Djokovic at a major almost in the bag and having to retire is really rough, especially considering how much he’s worked to elevate his game.

While sorrow was everywhere in the other quarter, Sinner and Shelton played a thrilling match that featured absurd shotmaking and a dynamic shift in the tournament landscape. As the top contenders go through the draw, they often set a new standard of play, establishing them as the favorites to win. Heading in, there were a lot of questions about Sinner’s physical state, and honestly his tennis hadn’t really been as sharp as it usually is. Against Shelton, he looked like his best self. Shelton was hitting serves regularly above 200km/h, many upwards of 230, and Sinner was moving forward to return them. This may be the right play if you have the timing, but it almost makes it look like Sinner enjoys returning Ben’s serve. Shelton had fewer than 20% of his first serves unreturned for the match, and that is a major reason why he’s losing this matchup. Sinner in a rally doesn’t have to press or take huge risks, and he can isolate Shelton’s backhand anytime he needs to. Shelton has improved his backhand, but it still doesn’t have a way to score when the ball is over there. It’s a testament to Sinner’s defense, but he’ll need to continue working on flattening it out down the line so he can get his forehand more in play in future matchups.

Another straight set loss for Shelton is not great, but it was a really high quality match. Shelton and Sinner hit the ball so clean and put a ton into their winner attempts, and for me Sinner’s play here sets a new mark. I think it was the highest level anyone has hit in the tournament, so all eyes will be on Alcaraz Zverev to see what they can produce. For now, Djokovic is into the semis in a very strange way. The last two rounds have been walkovers; as much tennis as he’s played he certainly deserves a break here and there, but it’s hard for me to say he has a chance here. Sinner has won their last 7 meetings, and the last three have been straight sets. His game is very similar to Djokovic despite a different swing production, and that is one reason he’s thriving in the matchup. At this stage, he’s a bit faster than Djokovic, and hits a bit bigger. It means Novak has to be extremely consistent but also that he can’t win a long match. Rushing points against Sinner is possible, but not often. Shelton probably has one of the biggest forehands in the tournament, and Sinner was still able to get his racquet on most of his shots, forcing Ben to go closer and closer to the line. These matches (similar to Musetti) help Shelton get better, because he digs in and problem-solves even though he isn’t doing great in the scoreline most of the time. He can’t sustain the level, but he rises to Jannik’s level for 50% of the match, and that means he’s going to be able keep getting to this point.

I expect Sinner to win an anti-climactic 3 setter here. Djokovic has a blister, and his lateral movement didn’t look great. He may time the ball better here and he has some heroic moments left in him, but Sinner’s approach to the game is to be overwhelming on defense, to minimize errors, and to play a comprehensive brand of tennis. It makes him very hard to upset, and the work makes him hard to rattle because the quality is there even under pressure. If you watch, it feels like he almost hits cleaner when facing break points than anywhere else. Sinner in 3.

Women’s Singles :

Rybakina vs Pegula :

Quick turnaround for the WTA stars here. I don’t think either will be too fatigued given their straight set wins. Rybakina was able to squeak past Swiatek in a high level affair, and Pegula took advantage of a rough patch of play from Anisimova to get her win. To me, they’ve both shown a high level so far, but Rybakina had the slightly more impressive quarterfinal to me.

Swiatek and Rybakina was one I sort of got right. I had a feeling neither would be able to play much defense against their opponent, and it was true. Rybakina’s serve wasn’t really firing, but he mixed in enough body serves to keep Swiatek off balance. When she had a full swing in the rally, she was able to rush Iga and cause errors, especially on the backhand cross. The first set saw both of them miss aggressive returns on key points, and although Rybakina won the match, it felt like whoever lost the first set would have a really tough time regrouping to make a comeback. All those opportunities and then and overtime loss just makes the finish line seem suddenly so far away. It’s something they’re used to, but here it also shifted things. Rybakina no longer had pressure on her swings, so she relaxed and played better. 

There’s a lot of chatter about Swiatek’s trajectory, and yet she was a few points here from winning the first set. When she landed her first serve, she was relatively unplayable for Rybakina. Iga’s ability to create angles and go down the line paid massive dividends in the first, so I would say it seems more like she is gradually improving on hardcourt. Nobody is really dominating the tour at this point, and slumps can seem like a huge issue but 2/3 tennis is a sprint and 1 single game can swing an entire match. Obviously, Iga needs to improve her serving and timing to win on hardcourt (a backhand slice might actually help a bit) but I don’t think you can rule her out of the title hunt at this point.

Rybakina won a pretty competitive contest, and Pegula had a similar experience to Svitolina. She played well, but the task was made easy by her opponent. Anisimova carried over the rough level she had against Wang, and missed a ton of uncharacteristic shots. She was visibly moved by the errors, and basically right away she was upset with herself and with her box. It was tough to watch, but Pegula was solid and didn’t really slow down or give Amanda any hope. Pegula making a semifinal and having an opponent she’s 3-3 against is not a bad spot, and having a simple match before is helpful.

One thing Pegula did great last round is T serve from the duece side. Serving will keep her in this match, even with a few issues that I think could cost her. Those issues are returning. Pegula probably gets as many returns in play as Swiatek, but her reach is a bit shorter. In Riyadh (although those conditions were faster), a lot of her returns fell short in the court. Rybakina is really sharp at dealing with these. Swiatek exposed Rybakina’s lateral movement to great effect. Pegula tends not to go as sharply when she hits angles, and telegraphs it a bit more when she goes down the line with her backhand. She has great rally tolerance and is hitting the ball solid, but I think it allows Rybakina to get to more balls in this matchup. Pegula is playing well and has good ability to reflect power, but Rybakina’s power when she sends the ball cross-court can be an issue here. I think Pegula tends to camp in the cross-court forehand exchanges also and Rybakina has a good ability to accelerate on these and stretch her opponent. So, big keys for me are Rybakina’s first serve percentage, and Pegula trying to isolate Rybakina’s backhand.

I don’t expect Rybakina’s level to drop, and I think her reach will allow her to eventually get into Pegula’s service games. In their past few meetings, Rybakina had at least 4 more break point opportunities than Pegula. They were tied with 7 each once, and Pegula won, but she won 80% of her first serve points that day and that’s unlikely to be the stat here. They’re 3-3, and their last match went to a deciding set, but Rybakina has won the last 2 meetings. Given Pegula’s win against Keys, she is in this tier but it feels like she’s had some help from her opponents form thus far. Rybakina is playing exceptionally well, and seems fairly calm out there given the way she navigated the first set against Swiatek. Rybakina in 2-3. I think her serve will be a big factor as the match goes on, and Pegula’s will slowly slow down.