2026 Australian Open Men's & Women's Round Two - Day 2

Women’s Singles :

Pegula vs Kessler :

Jessica Pegula started off the event well, and has already shown a decent level this season. It makes her the more assured side for this matchup. Kessler had a tough start to the season, playing a very error-prone match against Madison Keys and then following it up with a loss to Danilovic. At her best in the 2025 season, she was a higher level than she is here but their sole meeting in the finals of Austin was won by Pegula 7-5, 6-2. Given McCartney’s ability and tenacity, I don’t think she’ll disappear in this matchup, but her best aggressive tennis is probably still not enough since Pegula can defend so well. Pegula in 2.

Selekhmeteteva vs Badosa :

Badosa was comfortably ahead for most of the Diyas match, but there were a number of unforced errors. Seemingly normal shots down the line would land wide by multiple feet, some shots went low in the net, and Diyas actually had chances to get the second set. It’s fine to slow down in a 6-2, 6-4 win, but Diyas doesn’t really have the consistency to her game that she used to. The positive thing was that Badosa looked physically strong and didn’t need the trainer, but I think this next match will be tricky because of the timing issues. Selekhmeteva has been a solid performer in qualifier draws and off-tour events, but hasn’t really beaten many big names on tour. She’s a tall lefty with a lot of power, but consistency can come and go, and injuries have held her back. Against Seidel, she looked quite good, and finished the match strong. Both players were hitting the ball too big for their opponent to really defend well, and I think that gives Selehmeteva a chance against Badosa. That second set lapse wasn’t really about Diyas playing better, it was just working out the kinks on the forehand side. Oksana’s backhand cross could be moderately effective and her forehand does go down the line well. I think this will be closer than the rankings and reputations suggest. Badosa in 3. I think the upset is very possible but it requires a lapse in level from Paola and her athleticism will let her deal with the barrage a lot better than Seidel.

Tjen vs Pliskova :

User intelligentbug6969 pointed out that Fernandez was injured after my last post, and that was the beginning of my internal dread. Not at Tjen winning, but that my Fernandez faith was a bit lofty. Tjen played a great match and advances. She had a whirlwind 2025 and now has started off 2026 strongly. This is also a great spot in the draw since she plays Pliskova in her first event back. 

Pliskova was solid in round one. She served fairly well, and was very calm during baseline rallies. That composure and willingness to take something off when she felt she was going to miss made all the difference. She didn’t give Stephens many errors, and Sloane got frustrated. With a short ball Karolina is really tough, and she was the player a bit more able to produce offense throughout. Stephens expressed discontent to her box, but the camera showed her walking away from Kamau Murray rather than waiting for his advice. It’s good to see Stephens back, and I imagine she was a little surprised at Pliskova being so prepared for tennis after a long layoff.

Tjen against Pliskova is a spot I like. Pliskova is a really tricky opponent because you have to keep her moving, but Tjen’s footwork and aggressive forehand inside out should keep her safe. Janice’s backhand is slice heavy, but it’s tough for tall opponents to get down and play a high volume of slices, so I think Tjen matches up well here. New prospect vs heralded champion; this should be excellent. Tjen in 2-3. Her level is good enough to win, but I think thus far on tour she’s had a little trouble imposing herself on bigger hitters.

Keys vs Krueger :

A solid win for Krueger sets up a powerful clash against Madison Keys. Keys had to elevate her level in round one against a very inspired Oliynykova. The newcomer to the tour played extremely well, and when she lands in the draw against a non-defending Grand Slam champion she will likely get some of her first tour wins. For now, Keys is through and has a winnable match. Madison has made a lot of errors in recent weeks going for big shots, but the reason I’m optimistic is that the contact is really solid on those shots. Timing is everything in Keys’ game, and she’s a better mover than Krueger here so in a match that is likely to see some arm-wrestling, I think Keys will fare a little better on defense. Keys in 2.

Noskova vs Preston :

Noskova had a pretty smooth win in round one but this is likely to be a rough one. Preston has been playing well in early rounds and in qualifying for about a season now, and beating Zhang was a very impressive result. The Australians coming up right now (Gibson/Jones/Preston for example) have good power but aren’t hyper-aggressive, and as they get more comfortable with big moments the results will continue to improve. Noskova should have her a big outmatched in the hitting department, and the good thing about Noskova is that she’s very used to dropping sets. This may sound weird, but her approach and her composure doesn’t disappear because she drops a set or winds up in a third. I think she’ll be a little bit more consistent executing on these quick courts, but Preston plays a solid level of tennis and these quick courts tend to even things out a bit since the pace is tough to deal with. Noskova in 3.

Wang vs Ostapenko :

Ostapenko! I did not expect her to be healthy nor did I expect her to play well. There were a few early breaks traded with Sramkova but Rebecca could not serve big enough to stay out of trouble. Ostapenko’s timing on returns was excellent and she smashed away. This next round won’t be as simple, but Ostapenko showing any sign of form gives her a chance. Wang and Ostapenko played last season in Indian Wells and Wang won 6-4, 6-4. Given her recent patch of good play, and her straight set win against Kalinina, she should win this also. Wang’s main task her is to move Ostapenko and to keep her first serve percentage high. Second serves are going to be an issue, and she won’t win the 52% of 2nds she did against Kalinina. Wang can be a little inconsistent on her backhand wing and she plays pretty aggressive, but she’s a favorite to win this match. She’s familiar with Ostapenko’s game, she’s in good form, and Ostapenko’s resurgence is only one match deep. I still worry because Ostapenko was leading Valentova last week, but I tend not to award the level until it’s displayed against the next tier. Wang in 3.

Stearns vs Marcinko :

This section of the draw has a lot of interesting matchups. Interesting matchups make for great tennis, but they make me realize idk nothin about nothin. Stearns just spent about a year playing inconsistent hyper-aggressive ball. It reminded me of Thiem’s comeback, where he was less concerned with percentages and results and more aiming to find a level held previously. To me, plan B on the court always has to be lockdown defense and grinding, because it can yield results. Seeing Peyton pulling the trigger early and often in losses makes me worry about her chances in every match. When she made her move up the rankings it was a Kasatkina-esque style of play, but with a much bigger forehand and a decent serve. That level is still there, and will beat Marcinko, but if they’re trading power and aggression here Petra will win. Marcinko passed the Maria test which is excellent for a young player, and she hits the ball big off her backhand when she has time. I don’t think Peyton is going to take the racquet out of her hands, and this is a match where Peyton’s forehand is better, Marcinko’s backhand is better, and the winner will be the one who misses less. They’re both a little more aggressive than they can manage, and I don’t actually rate the Kenin win so much because Kenin often beats herself these days. The best Stearns beats Marcinko in straights. The current Marcinko beats the frustrated Stearns in 3. I’m expecting the result to be something a little bit between the two.

Siniakova vs Anisimova :

Pretty interesting that these two have never played. Anisimova is obviously the favorite here, and in most hardcourt matches these days. Siniakova plays excellent baseline tennis a few weeks a year, but can also have accuracy issues and hit herself out of matches. She’s playing well here and her groundstrokes may expose Anisimova’s lateral mobility, but I have a hard time seeing Anisimova lose here in an early round. Siniakova did serve at 71% for the first round, and she played pretty aggressive so I am imagining this to be a contest that requires some overtime. Ansimova in 2 long sets.

Rybakina vs Gracheva :

This is the sort of match where Rybakina seems like a lock and then she opens the match down 3-0. Gracheva has extremely creative offense when she has time, but can be overpowered. Rybakina started off well against Juvan, so I think she’ll win here. The best thing about Rybakina vs baseliners is how solid her mechanics are. Rybakina in 2.

Fruhvirtova vs Valentova :

Excellent comeback win for Fruhvirtova, and it sets up a match against another talented Czech junior. Fruhvirtova has been winning behind her aggressive backhand returns, and I think here her power will be matched. Linda was a top prospect on tour for a few seasons early on, but her game isn’t the hugest. Valentova seems ready to be a factor immediately due to her serving ability and the pace of her groundstrokes. There will be matches where she struggles with unforced errors, but here I think she’ll get into enough of Fruhvirtova’s service games to win. Valentova in 2. Beating Maya Joint in straights was very impressive to me, especially after going down an early break in the second. That ability to get breaks back and change gears is a great sign.

Mertens vs Uchijima :

Uchijima served at 63% for the first round against Sierra, and the good Uchijima is a very welcome sight. I’m not sure how much she can get done against Mertens, but she has the rally tolerance to make this a match. They went to three in their previous meeting in 2023, but Mertens is playing some of her best ball right now. She dismissed Tararudee who was playing excellent, and should have a bit more power than Uchijima. This should be a high level affair, and Uchijima’s serve percentage could make things close. Mertens in 2.

Bartunkova vs Bencic :

The knock on Bartunkova’s game last season was that her rally tolerance wasn’t great. For her to hit through Kasatkina is tremendous. The changing of the guard stuff on the men’s side is carrying over here, and the upset victims are not cooked by any means but it is really notable to see the phenoms notching wins on the major stage. To get to the finish line is very possible for a top level junior, but closing out requires execution and preparation that indicates to me these players are here to stay. Bartunkova has one of the better serves on tour already, and uses a lot of dropshots and a heavy inside-out forehand to get the job done. Her backhand looks a little awkward at times, but she has good variety on that wing. Against Bencic, I don’t like her chances, but this was a great run. Belinda is one of the best competitors this season, so the run should continue. She can deal defensively with most of what Bartunkova offers, and she adds the offense that Kasatkina lacks at times. Bencic in 2.

Osaka vs Cirstea :

Cirstea’s run here has been pretty impressive, and there’s chatter that she could beat Osaka. I’m not so sure. Osaka had a titanic battle with Ruzic. That’s obviously not Grand Slam contender stuff, but Ruzic is a good competitor with a tremendous backhand so I don’t begrudge Osaka a tough day. Cirstea has a bigger offense, more experience, and is a bit physically stronger than Ruzic, but she was down a set and a break to Lys so there was a good chance she wouldn’t even be in this round. The h2h here is not of much use. Cirstea won their previous meeting in 3, but it was in 2015 in Wimbledon. Osaka is capable of losing or winning any match. She can get in her own head, and she can make unforced errors. At the same time, her serve is really strong and her power is a factor. Cirstea is a good candidate because she plays well as an underdog, and is on a good run of play here having beaten Rakhimova as well as Lys. Honestly, I spend a lot of time expecting Osaka to lose, so I have a hard time declaring it. When she goes three with Ruzic, I’m not very surprised. If she lost to Cirstea, I wouldn’t blink. At the same time, Osaka is good enough to make the second week of hardcourt majors still, and Cirstea’s production tends to be a little more hit or miss. Osaka in 3.

Inglis vs Siegemund :

Not who I expected in this round. Both of these players navigated an opponent who hit the ball much harder on courts that should favor that. Samsonova beat Siegemund 6-0 in the first, but Laura has too much experience to stop fighting. It feels like if you win 6-0 you could guarantee success, but it starts to be a numbers game. How long can you blank someone? Barely anyone is winning 12 games in a row against a pro, and when you eventually find a few errors, suddenly you’re up 6-1 and down 0-2. I’m not sure what to expect here. It’s a brand new meeting, and Siegemund is a bit better and more experienced, but Inglis is younger and is playing at home. The win against Samsonova is impressive, but once Ludmila goes off the rails a bit she tends to make a lot of unforced errors. Some of Siegemund’s recent losses have actually been to baseliners with smaller games, so Inglis should be pretty much even here. Inglis in 3.

Kalinskaya vs Grabher :

Grabher pulled off one of the lesser heralded upsets in the first round, but it was a great win. Cocciaretto has been playing great and took control of the match in the second. Grabher’s commitment to fitness is incredible, and she’ll need it this round. Kalinskaya has controlled offense and has just defeated a slightly higher level opponent than Grabher. Kartal had the early lead in the first, but Kalinskaya found her level and stayed there. She’s a good player to have in form in the draw because she matches up well against top players. Kalinskaya in 2.

Swiatek vs Bouzkova :

Yue Yuan played excellent against Swiatek, but Iga’s hardcourt struggles don’t cancel out her ability to ball. She’s less than efficient against the top of the top, but at the lower tiers her power and agility still pay dividends. Up next is a somewhat safer match against Bouzkova. Marie has way better retrieving skill than Yuan, but doesn’t hit the ball anywhere near as big. Their previous meeting was in Wuhan last season and Swiatek won 1,1. This should be a little closer just based off it being hard to leave someone on binary numbers, but it feels like Swiatek wins in 2 most of the time.

Men’s Singles :

Musetti vs Sonego :

Musetti against Collignon was one of the most enjoyable matchups of the first round. The tennis was beautiful and their ballstriking was efficient. In the end, Collignon was forced to retire, but he’s proven himself in his first big major event, and since his specialty is clay, he’s likely to remain on tour in good standing for a long time based off how he played on hardcourt in the past 5-6 months. Musetti is still wearing the arm sleeve, so I worry he will have issues in the second week, but for now he seems fine. He played better as the match went on, and that has been the Musetti modus operandi. Sonego actually leads this h2h 2-1, and their indoor match in Paris last season went to him. As much as Musetti seems like he should come through, this is a serious test. Sonego takes time away from his opponents by taking the ball early and always looking for forehands, and he’s very willing to come to net which can be useful against a player like Musetti who stands deep. Since they have the same name, I’m going to pick Lorenzo in 5, and I won’t tell you who until after the match, at which point I will tell you I was wrong. Musetti in 5. I know Sonego beat him in 3 on a quickish hardcourt, but I wonder what would happen if they continued that match. Does Sonego’s offense stretch across 5 sets? Not sure. If Musetti’s arm goes, obviously he’s beatable, but for now he seems okay.

Machac vs Tsitsipas :

Machac made extremely quick work of Dimitrov, and of all the players who made deep runs last week he looked the most fresh. Up next is a resurgent Stefanos Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas dropped the first to Mochizuki, but from there he was in control. He has a bit too much power and athleticism for someone without a serve to beat him, but I think we’ll see his actual level in this next match. Playing good ball and winning good matches again is positive, but the task at hand is to get into these uphill situations and not revert to box-bashing and deviation from the plan. Tsitsipas did win their previous meeting in 2023, but they were much different players then. Machac is playing sharp, moving well, and I like his side in the backhand exchanges. He has the pace on his shots to find Stef’s backhand, and his recent play has been better. Maybe he hits a wall physically in a long match, and Tsitsipas is certainly a candidate to take over if that happens, but I just think Machac has hit a new level and Tsitsipas is still trying to prove that he’s back in form. Machac in 4.

Gea vs Wawrinka :

The classic Wawrinka situation the past few seasons in the second round has been him playing an excellent set or two of tennis, but his opponent just managing to wear him out and win. Stan played solid against Djere, but I think that story will repeat itself. I don’t think just anyone can beat Wawrinka, but Gea is on a special run here. Gea looked every part the professional against Lehecka, and to win that matchup is exceptional even with Lehecka in questionable health. The one thing I really like about Gea’s game is the focus and precision on his forehand. He makes clean contact off both wings, but his forehand is very solid. I definitely can see Stan’s serve +1 giving him a lot of trouble, and I think early on it will be difficult for Gea to score since Stan can hit with such great length and pace even from tough spots, but as things drag on I see Gea pulling away. The match is set in the afternoon also so there won’t be a great reprieve from the the warm Melbourne conditions. Gea in 4-5.

Kopriva vs Fritz :

Fritz was not a happy camper early on against Royer, but he settled in and won comfortably in the last two sets. Fritz is a guy who thrives on looking like a child who just hit a growth spurt but is wearing the same clothes, but he plays great tennis and a season or two of competing and taking his Ls at the highest level have changed his presence on the court. He did the Taylor Fritz mope at times early on, but he applied himself to the next rally anyway. I like it. His knee issue didn’t seem to be too evident, and he doesn’t have a brace or taping on his legs so he could have a good run here. Kopriva is a relatively safe opponent for him. Vit had a great result for himself in beating Struff,but keeping the ball in play is the main task against Struff. He’ll need to do a lot more against Fritz, and Taylor just doesn’t give his opponents much. You can score on Fritz with high quality offense, but that’s the only way. Fritz in 3.

Mensik vs Jodar :

I have to say this one is scary for me as a Mensik fan. Mensik looked flat against PCB almost the entire match. Even though he celebrated and jogged to his chair after breaks and pumped his fist, it felt like he really had one foot out the door here. The fatigue from last week was evident, physically because he couldn’t really hit big enough to break down PCB’s defenses, and mentally because he made a handful of errors and double faults. At one point, he just started going for two first serves, and it worked because he landed more, but this was a match that Pablo should have won. Once Mensik finally got to a 5th set, the finish line was closer and his level improved. I just don’t know how a guy who was toast in the first round against a mightily struggling opponent is going to be any better off after a 5 setter. Jodar is quite good, and has offensive talent that Pablo doesn’t. Obviously Jodar is new on tour and young so he won’t be fresh for this after his own 5 setter and a run through qualifying, but Mensik won almost every clutch point he needed to in the last round and Pablo at this stage is just not as good as Jodar. Sakamoto and Jodar was high level and a roller coaster ride as advertised, and I think the exhilaration of that win and playing someone around the same age range is going to see Jodar come through again. If Pablo had more offense, he would be playing here. Add a round of fatigue and I think Mensik will be flat. Jodar in 4.

Hurkacz vs Quinn :

Bergs was a few points from having Hurkacz gone, but after Hubert won the second set the entire feel of the match changed. He let out a mighty roar (for Hurkacz) and pounded his chest. It was big emotion, and it’s fun to have Hurkacz back on tour. He still has the issue with his backhand length, so the plan is simple for Quinn, but Hurkacz is a guy who I suspect will play better each round. He’s finding more and more of his old game and his serve makes things very difficult. You get a few chances to break him because he makes unforced errors (backhands cross-court that go long, backhands down the line that hit the exact same part of the net every time, and shanked forehands), but his serve means you only get a few chances in a match.

I guess everyone who didn’t watch Quinn expects this to be easy, but I have never seen Ethan Quinn hit his forehand better. Every time Quinn had time, the point was over. It was a Berrettini style match from him, and I think offensively he’s a little better than Bergs right now. The slight caveat is that Griekspoor is completely burnt out on the court, and just isn’t really playing with desire or purpose. He’s still great, but you can see that he’s at a job rather than enjoying his passion. The results obviously don’t help, but still he needs a break or to see the ball go through the hoop a few times.

Quinn is playing well enough to get to tiebreakers, and it’ll just matter who plays them better. Hurkacz playing Bergs oddly might help him here, because the same “avoid the forehand” strategy is correct against Bergs also. Hurkacz in 5 is my guess. I would be very surprised if Quinn was not competitive here, and while he’s not the biggest name he was a very promising prospect a season or two ago so the quality and ceiling are there.

⛵ vs Shang :

Shang beat RBA in 4, and it’s a solid result for him after a lot of injuries and close calls. Up next is the greatest of all time, who only chooses not to dominate the tour because “I want everyone to experience winning.” Goatic Van De Zandschulp managed to beat Nakashima in round one to a lot of people’s surprise. The level is there, but the consistency is not. I really didn’t see a great way for Botic to score in that matchup, but he won and it was a higher level win than Shang so this is doable also. This feels very close. I’m picturing two things. One, Botic struggling with errors on his backhand because Shang is a lefty. Two, Botic’s serve being a really valuable weapon. Looking at their previous meeting doesn’t make me feel any different. Shang won their last meeting in three tiebreakers in Hong Kong. Whoever plays better here will win, but I guess that’s obvious. I don’t think anybody comes to read about how someone else also doesn’t know what’s going to happen, but Shang has played a ton of close matches on tour and Botic has beaten or lost to just about everyone at every level. For me, Botic at his best should win a long one. Botic in 5.

Maestrelli vs Djokovic :

Novak was pretty solid in round one, and for a guy who makes slow starts to come out firing is a good sign. He will need to arrive in the second week completely fresh in order to compete in the way he wants to, so sprinting through this draw is necessary. With Botic/Shang next, it’s possible. Maestrelli is the next up from the Italian ranks. He first appeared with Cobolli/Passaro a while back, and they’ve made their way on tour so he’s been thriving at the challenger level. I don’t expect him to beat Djokovic, but it’s a free opportunity to ply his craft on the biggest stage and he’s certainly ready. Maestrelli has a fairly complete game and the one thing that grinding the Challenger tour does extremely well is get you to compete regardless of the expectations. It’s a dojo and he’s been there. I can wax poetic about Maestrelli a bit longer if you like, but I think Djokovic should win in 3-4. Maybe Maestrelli’s quality catches Novak by surprise, but it would be the classic “drop the first, win in a comfortable 4” type scenario if it could even happen. Healthy Djokovic is still in the top 5 in the world.

Shelton vs Sweeny :

I think I finally found the right appreciation for Monfils last night while watching him lose to Sweeny. He was doing his usual “double over between points he loses” thing, in between ripping winners and serving aces. I tend to block that out for analysis, because he does it the whole time and then wins a 5 setter. Last night though, he was actually tired. Last night, he gave Dane Sweeny the greatest moment of his career. He played it up, he left Sweeny in rallies where he could have ended the point, and he gave the crowd the best time imaginable. I knew Sweeny would win after the second, but I couldn’t turn it off. Monfils is one of the greatest entertainers of this generation. After points where anyone else would get frustrated, he grinned at his box. After forehands that could be a turning point, and shots where others would pump their fist to the crowd, he flexed his muscles comically to his box and made a surprised face. He is charming and endearing and gracious in the moment, and he allowed Sweeny to be the star of his own heroic movie on a night where Monfils was playing his own final Australian Open. Given that loss, I would expect La Monf to thrive only at 2/3 format events this season.

Sweeny is a really solid player, but his short stature means he has to work really hard. Shelton is going to give him a lot of trouble returning, because even his second serve kicks up very high. It’s the end of the road for Sweeny, but the last few weeks have changed his career. He’s getting hundreds of thousands of dollars in prize money, and he’s up to 141 in the live rankings. Shelton in 3.

Hijikata vs Vacherot :

Hijikata is having an excellent January. A straight set win against Mannarino is exactly the right result for him because that is one of the easier draws you can get at a major, and he plays an opponent who just might eventually have a letdown. Vacherot is another great server whose baseline game is sneaky good. He had a breakout year in 2025, and I’m wondering if he gets burnt out at some point. A lot of players have a letdown after their first big stretch of wins. It’s not that you can’t keep winning, but the big results tend to be from redlining and having a great patch of play, so the level staying high is sometimes impossible. So far it hasn’t happened. Vacherot beat Martin Damm much easier than I expected, and now he has a weird matchup here. Hijikata really plays pretty simply. He doesn’t serve or hit huge, but he’s very consistent and tries to get his opponents moving. That is the correct plan against Vacherot given his height and thin stature, but I think Valentin is still fresh here. Wearing him down in a single match is unlikely, and that makes me think his serving is going to be a big factor. Vacherot in 4. Hijikata is there is Vacherot’s level dips, but I think he’ll have to play a perfect match to win.

Shapovalov vs Cilic :

Cilic winning the first two sets 6-0, 6-0 was not in my mind at all. He still looks good at times, but he has lost matches at the Challenger level that are totally unexpected. For Marin to get my belief back (a most uncoveted treasure), he has to win matches like this. Pre-tournament, I would have thought Shapo and Cilic would be close. I still do, but Shapovalov served as well in round one as he has in a long time. He was at 64% for the match, but 87% first serves won. That alone gets him to the business end of sets here. Cilic is a good returner because of his reach and height, but the Shapo delivery is usually to the corners so it’ll require some guessing. Bu had chances to get momentum, but his backhand return length is really hard for him to manage because he blocks it back without much spin. He does the best with what he has, but that’s an area to work on.

I like Shapo here. Cilic looked great against Altmaier but Daniel can be really rough on fast hardcourts. Shapo moves better, hardcourt is his best surface, and him serving well and playing with focus should allow him to grind out a win. I do think rallies will be tough for him because Cilic tends to have a great shot selection. Every swing is hit with a purpose to a target, so it will be the first look at Denis’ defense in this event. Shapovalov in 4-5.

Munar vs Ruud :

Ruud was kinda sorta terrible last season on hardcourt, but this seasons he’s been solid. It’s really fun to watch him play well, so this is preferable. Munar is likely to drag things out against anyone, so if you want to see a ton of scrambling and tennis, this is the match. They’re both great defenders, and both serve a little better than expected for clay-court specialists. The big difference for me is RPMs. Ruud gets a lot of zip on his forehand and Munar tends to use more height and placement to get things done. Basically, I think Casper can apply pressure with less risk by hitting heavy, and Munar will have to hit multiple shots to score. Ruud has won their last few meetings so I think I’m right. Ruud in 4.

Khachanov vs Basavareddy :

Great win for Khachanov to hold off Michelsen, and it gets him to a very good spot in the draw. His next two matches are Basavareddy (who was down two sets against O’Connell), and Baez (who is playing excellent but is a baseliner). Baez right now is beating everyone, but Khachanov’s main strength is being solid from the baseline and he tends more to lose to players with bigger more varied offense. Basavareddy is good at finding ways to win, but I think he’s outmatched here on both wings and that’s a bit of an issue after a 5 setter. I don’t think he grinds it out, and prior to his slump Khachanov was making the second week of most majors so he is well-suited to the format and also has the experience. Khachanov in 3-4

Baez vs Darderi :

There are a few bits of evidence in both directions here. Baez just made the finals last week, so a little fatigue is possible. In the last round he was in control against Perricard, and then unraveled and wound up in a fifth. The unravel is scary because last season he really had trouble controlling the ball. Also, Darderi beat him badly last year in their only meeting. It was on clay, but 0,2 is rough. In the opposite direction, Baez has been one of the best hardcourt players so far this season. That clay match was during a season where Baez was awful, and that was also in a stretch of play where Darderi was playing lights out on clay. The big factor for me is health. Darderi was clutching his side last match. After hitting the winner at match point, he ran over to Garin, shook hands, and then jogged immediately to the locker room. Clearly there is something going around at the AO, and he seems to have it. In a long match against Baez, you need to be 100%, so I think Baez wins this. Also, honestly Darderi is not that dangerous on hardcourt, so given Sebastian’s purple patch he’s a deserved favorite unless he hits a massive wall in stamina. Baez in 4.

Spizzirri vs Wu :

Spizzirri got the benefit of a mildly rusty Joao Fonseca in round one. Fonseca has a lot of expectations, but his team has confirmed back issues, and lack of match play to strengthen his physique does mean he’s not always going to be accurate right away. For now, Spizzirri gets a much needed win at a major. His next opponent is Wu, who has worked his way back on tour after previously being one of the more exciting baseliners in the 50-100 range. I think Wu wins this for the simple reason that he’s more aggressive than Spizzirri. Elliot has great durability, but Wu isn’t going to give him the same errors that Fonseca did, and if he has control of rallies he’s excellent at hitting big to the open court. I think it’ll be a long match, but Wu should be slightly more capable on offense. Wu in 4.

Duckworth vs Sinner :

Sinner and Gaston was fun while it lasted, but Hugo was forced to retire after just two sets. This match is equally harmless for Jannik, but should be fun. The hometown hero against the giant. Duckworth has earned his spot here with a massive and gutsy performance against Dino Prizmic. He was in trouble so many times and never stopped fighting. Here, expect the same. He’ll push himself and make a good show of it, but tennis-wise, Jannik doesn’t really have pressure here. Most players at this point are at a disadvantage against Sinner in every department, and only a few have managed to spam one aspect of their game so much that they garner success against him. Sinner in 3.