2026 Australian Open Men's & Women's Round Three - Day 2

Men’s Singles :

Machac vs Musetti :

Both these players faced a bit of pressure in the last round, but neither ever really looked like they were going to fall behind in the scoreboard. Tsitsipas played as well as he has in quite some time, but it’s time to ask the difficult questions about his backhand. If my backhand is inconsistent, then I’m going to miss sometimes when I go for something. This man misses every time he goes for something. It really does not make sense. The footwork isn’t anywhere near disciplined enough to be something like Thiem or Golubic’s one-hander, but even Berrettini lands some backhands sometimes.

Tsitsipas needs a complete training block on that wing, and he won’t get it because his dad has been hovering and adding his own stream of consciousness in with Stefanos’. During the last round the announcer said “boy it seems like he never stops talking” about Apostolos. The other announcer paused, and said “he does not.” It’s WIIIIILD to feel confident enough as an observer to be sure about the issue but this is the issue. A lot of people endure stuff because they don’t want to hurt a family member, but it very often can be avoiding addressing a situation where a family member is hurting you. Tsitsipas is playing decent again, but his results are completely capped until he fixes the backhand and clearly the team around him cannot make him do that or cannot support him in his efforts to do that. You’d have to know him personally to know which it is.

For now, Machac managed the task well. It was a strange match with very little rhythm and random stoppages, but I think Machac is relatively fresh for this next one and that’s important. Tomas has had some injury and fatigue issues in the past despite his strong physique, and Musetti is going to make him play 4 hours of tennis if he wants to win. Lorenzo is through after a difficult to watch win against Sonego. I’m not going to look it up, but I feel confident in saying Sonego made around 4,000 unforced errors during that match. Playing Musetti has to be mind-boggling, and Sonego wound up quite boggled. Short balls saw him find the net. Balls from the baseline were sent long and wide by his forehand, and he went to bailout dropshots that landed in the net quite often. Even with the pressure to escape rallies destroying his timing, he still almost won the third set. He was ahead a break 3 times, and in that there is a bit of hope for Machac.

Sonego is know for being hot and cold, but Machac’s offense is much more repeatable. He’s not really putting a lot of pop into his serve, but that might be okay since Musetti is likely to put most returns in play anyway. Sometimes it’s better against a good return to take a little off and be more set for the second shot. Musetti still has the sleeve on, but he wasn’t shaking the arm out the way he did in the Hong Kong finals, so he appears to be in good form here. Musetti’s ability to put one more ball back is probably second only to Alcaraz, and he does it all the time where Carlos tends to make the extra effort when the situation calls for it. I expect Machac to play well and win one of the opening sets, but as the match drags on I think Musetti’s physical strength and stamina will become a big factor. He wins by earning errors and applying pressure to his opponents, but he also is excellent at hitting passes and can dial up pretty good serves of his own. The late lapse against Sonego is troubling, but it’s pretty hard to dominate someone for such a long period without sort of playing them into their best level briefly. I don’t think Machac can be shut out here at all. He won 3,2 in Marseille in 2024 so he’ll be familiar with the task. Musetti’s level is much higher now though, and his offensive play on hardcourt has risen considerably. He’s the more well rested player, and defense wins championships. Musetti in 4-5.

Fritz vs Wawrinka :

Taylor started the season by scaring us all with reports of a knee injury, but he has played better each round in Melbourne. Up next he has the unwanted task of beating Stan Wawrinka. I was barely able to watch the fifth set last night because I really didn’t want to see either play lose. Gea has had a great run, but Wawrinka losing a 5th to fatigue is a story I don’t enjoy watching. Conversely, Stan coming up big is a great end to his story given the heartbreaking defeats he’s taken in the past few seasons, but this win would mean everything to Gea. In the end, Wawrinka played excellent and just squeaked by.

Fritz made comfortable work of Kopriva, and he’s here fresh and likely would be a favorite even if he weren’t. Fritz has really made himself consistent from the baseline and even though his game appears fairly simplified, he has decent variety. He’s been seeing good success taking his backhand down the line this week, and he’s serving well. That should be enough here because the task is simple. Outlast the barrage of serves and power and immaculate backhands from Wawrinka, and then keep him moving once the edge is off. Wawrinka can compete even here for 2 sets I think. Fritz in 3-4.

Mensik vs Quinn :

Mensik won both meetings between these two in 2025, and while one was on clay, he won Cincinnati 4,2. A round ago I declared Mensik tired, and whatever he did to recover seemed to work both physically and mentally. Similar to the Zheng/Moutet fumble, the other player was tired here. Jodar was fatigued, and his forehand looked a bit clunky throughout. He had the lead a few times in the third, but was unable to hold serve for basically the whole match. He did have some close games on Mensik’s serve, but Jakub is back to serving extremely well and the boost made the match easy for him.

Quinn vs Mensik is a match that should be pretty close in stretches. Quinn’s forehand is a laser this week, and he’s holding serve at a really solid clip. I thought he’d get to the business end of sets with Hurkacz, but he went ahead and won the match. This is a great win for him, and a great start to the season for a guy who was right there with Michelsen in that “these guys are next up” converstion for the USTA. I think here Mensik (who seems to have recovered from last week) will be rounding into his best form and will be a little more solid on his backhand. The recovery is a huge factor in leaving him as the favorite, because the way he was moving in round one would see Quinn dominate him on the forehand side. Last match Mensik was bouncing around between serves, and his legs were downright jittery during changeovers. I actually am confused why Jodar was priced much closer with Mensik than Quinn, but I think that’s just a reaction to him looking more himself in round 2. Mensik in 4.

Van De Zandschulp vs Djokovic :

These two actually played last year, and the scoreline was 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 in Indian Wells 2025. Obviously the GOAT won, which makes this an interesting matchup. Djokovic is a master at motivating himself, and a revenge tour is just the recipe. Novak was clinical against Maestrelli, and so far this week he’s looked excellent. Botic wouldn’t really be the guy you’d expect to play spoiler to a Djokovic run, but this week he has shown up remarkably ready to compete. He’s serving well, he’s crushing his forehand, and the best part of his game for me has been his decision-making. This isn’t me hyping him up to win here, I just think that small mental errors can cost you games against Novak, so Botic needs to be at his best to have a chance.

The Indian Wells win was exciting, but Djokovic has been pretty much checking himself out of non-majors for a while now. While Botic is playing well, he’ll be in the match. Obviously Novak is all the adjectives and nouns, but if Nakashima were playing Novak here we’d be gearing up for a good quality contest. Van De Zandschulp could lose this in straights, and I’ll catch flack for saying he won’t, but this is our first look at a real test for Djokovic. I’m interested to get a look at his returning against the Botic serve and to see how his movement is. He was stifling against Maestrelli but the Italian phenom telegraphs his shots a little more. Botic tends to hold his swings well. In the end, I think Djokovic will break down the boat’s backhand and expose his slightly slower lateral movement. Djokovic in 4.

Shelton vs Vacherot :

This is an exciting matchup. Their only meeting was in 2022, and it did include a few tiebreakers. That’s way too long ago to use as a data point, and yet a few tiebreakers is probably what we see here. Vacherot has been sprinting through his matches and is serving like a cannon. For a server, his baseline tennis is very crafty as well and he moves well. I like Shelton here despite him entering the tournament in rough form. He’s serving well, and he has consistently played better at majors. Being able to summon your best level when you need it is a really useful tool, but it’s less about luck and more about ability. Shelton can play tennis at the top tier. This won’t be easy, and careless games can cost him a set. Shelton has improved every season, but he still is very willing to pull the trigger on offense at any moment. The big issue I think in the end will be physical strength, and I view Shelton as more durable. Shelton in 5.

Cilic vs Ruud :

Ruud is 4-0 against Cilic, and he’s playing extremely well. Cilic is equally sharp, and has run through his matches thus far. Shapovalov came into the match serving well, but as soon as a few errors crept in, he unraveled a bit. A Cilic run at the majors is pretty incredible, and I think he’ll be the better player early on. This is another one where stamina could play a large role. Ruud’s wife is expecting a child (congrats! blurry is a good name btw) so there were rumblings of him leaving, but it seems it will take a very strong effort to get him out. His game is not the most explosive on hardcourt, but the format means he’ll have time to grind Marin down. With Cilic surging I think he is a significant threat, but Ruud has clearly figured out solid strategies to keep him from winning matches so with him in good form I expect another win. Ruud in 4.

Khachanov vs Darderi :

These two have never met before, and both are pretty solid baseliners. The difference here for me is Khachanov’s serving. He’s a bigger hitter, but Darderi really doesn’t serve aces. He had an excellent win against Baez but it seemed that Baez was running out of gas against Perricard. Khachanov cruised by Basavareddy, and my only concern here is that he tends to play to the level of his opponent. Him and Darderi could wind up in a long grind, and Khachanov’s confidence is not at the highest right now. Risk of a long ones here, but Khachanov in a long format is a really tough out and he should be able to serve and use his consistency to get through. Khachanov in 4-5.

Sinner vs Spizzirri :

Wu and Spizzirri turned into a proper marathon. Wu spent the first two sets missing every single type of shot you can. It seemed he would completely crash out but he found his range late in the third and could probably have won this match. Unfortunately, his body started to give out in the fifth and cramps became a factor. Up next for Spizzirri is a gentleman who has started to make me really enjoy writing predictions. Sinner is too good, and Spizzirri tends to win by grinding and playing defense. It is not the formula here, and although he has a more Italian name, I am siding with the Italian in 3 here.

Women’s Singles :

Pegula vs Selekhmeteva :

I thought Selekhmeteva would be a problem for Badosa, but she was a step better. She played excellent ball throughout, and Paola made a number of errors. In the second set Badosa reverted to extending rallies and making sure she hit the court. This was her original style on tour; moonballs, defense, and when she finally wore her opponents down, she had the power to score. Since injuries have become a thing, Badosa has started trying to play more aggressive to avoid wear and tear. It’s a good plan, but when she’s rushed for time by a powerful opponent she seems to spray errors. This is a tremendous win for Selekhmeteva, and even though she’s not favored to win here I think she can compete. Pegula is playing excellent ball, but Oksana has been able to trade power well on her backhand and she’s hitting her forehand very sharply. Pegula’s defense makes the difference here and she’s levels above Badosa, so I like her in an entertaining 2.

Pliskova vs Keys :

This is a time machine match because Pliskova has turned back the clock! Follow me for more extremely cringe sentences. Pliskova won their previous meeting in Brisbane in 2020 in a tight third set. This one I expect will be different, but I have doubted Pliskova twice already and been wrong so my opinion is worth a small portion of nothing. Keys is playing sharp and Pliskova has had a little help from her opponent’s thus far. I thought Tjen had the offense to run Karolina around, but her timing looked rough in their matchup. The unforced errors will come from Madison also, but she’s been in good form and is the defending champ here. Old foes can definitely summon their best, so Pliskova could cause problems with her serve and power, but Keys is a huge step up in competition. Keys in 2.

Noskova vs Wang :

Noskova won 4,1 in Prague last season, and while playing at home is a huge boost, I think she’s favored here also. Noskova had an exhausting battle with Preston last round, but once she got into a third set it just seemed like she had more strength left. Noskova’s flat hitting on these courts is really impressive, and this should be a high-powered matchup. Both players have unplayable forehands with time. I think Linda serves better, and everything else is about even. This could wind up in a third with Wang’s offense and her quality play, but I think Noskova gets it there. She can be error prone, but once it’s business time she seems to lock in and maintain control. Noskova in 3.

Stearns vs Anisimova :

Stearns actually won their only meeting in Madrid last year in 3 sets, and she enters this match playing extremely well. I wasn’t sure about her Kenin win, but she played well against Marcinko. Honestly, I don’t expect Anisimova to lose to anyone who isn’t a top ten player. Stearns level is good, but I think this is is a big step up. Anisimova in 2.

Rybakina vs Valentova :

Some will remember a thrilling 6-3, 7-6 win for Rybakina that came in the US Open last season. This year, there is a chance it could be even closer. Rybakina needed overtime in the first set to get past Gracheva, and Valentova just came through an excellent match with Fruhvirtova. Linda played excellent and the desire to win and fight that both players showed was inspiring. These are the type of matches that let young players find out what works best in big moments. It felt like Valentova took a little bit off in the third set and really concentrated on hitting the court rather than trying to crush winners. With her power, a commitment to consistency will pay dividends. Considering that Rybakina can get rattled on court in terms of belief, there is a good reason for Valentova to play her best here and dig in regardless of the score. Given the unforced errors that are still in her game, I think Valentova loses this in 3, and the only way she gets through is if she finds a brand new level. The good thing about young players is that this is possible, so I’ll tune in.

Mertens vs Bartunkova :

Bartunkova is the best. I really love good tennis, and she played a ton of it in the last round. Beating Kasatkina was impressive, but Bencic came in as one of the hottest players on tour and Bartunkova still won. She played aggressive on her forehand as usual, and had a great attitude throughout. It’s the best I’ve seen her play on tour, and her backhand was as good as ever. I really liked how she was looking to just send it low over the net rather than trying to find the open court. It put a lot of pressure on Bencic to create and going into Bartunkova’s forehand is tricky because she is so stable going down the line when moving that direction. This next matchup is completely winnable for Bartunkova. Bencic and Mertens are right around the same level. The difference for me is in the approach. Mertens is looking for you to make errors, and she doesn’t take many risks. She plays a lot of slices and uses different paces, and it will be interesting to see how Bartunkova reacts. Honestly, if Bartunkova continues improving she is going to be my favorite player to watch. She hits clean and she has creative shotmaking that isn’t imaginary. For now, I think Mertens can grind her down in 3, but Bartunkova’s win against Bencic makes this very possible. There is a phenomenon on tour where a young player pulls a big upset and then plays a bit flat the next round, but Bartunkova is on two big upsets so I hope she balls.

Osaka vs Inglis :

Osaka won a hard-fought match against Cirstea, and the result was a bit of drama. Osaka was apparently saying “come on” and slapping her leg between first and second serves, and that’s generally not something people should do. They had words at net, and the internet decided to debate Osaka again. The usual suspects showed up, and the conversation was exactly the same as it always is.

Osaka has always seemed a bit child-like to me so I have a hard time judging her too harshly. One of the first press conferences I ever watched was an Osaka interview and I was kinda horrified at how sheltered she seemed (this is back when she was like 19-20). It was my first warning that the tennis world is very unique. A lot of these players live a very singular life for their whole childhoods and miss out on stuff, they can end up a bit immature. I was listening to a teaching last week from one of those monk sorts, and the guy pointed out how if an adult points out that you have a booger in public, you might be upset at them, but if a small child does it, you’re more prone to laugh or treat them kindly.

I like to hold players to a standard of improvement, not one of perfection. I don’t know where they are socially, what their personal influences were like or are like, what their day was like, so as long as they are improving, I don’t think my judgement does much. I will say though, that Osaka has provided the men’s tour the opportunity to do something amazing. If Jannik Sinner pulls up dressed like a jellyfish for his next match, it could go a long way.

For now, Osaka moves on and has one of those matches she’s expected to win in straights. The trouble is that Siegemund and Inglis played a really high level baseline battle. Inglis doesn’t really give you a lot of pace to work with, but she’s good defensively. I think it’s a test for Osaka to supply all the pace and not miss. She stepped up her hitting late in the third in a major way so the level is there, it just needs to be there for a full match. Osaka in 2 close sets. I don’t think Inglis goes away, and players that test Osaka tend to see results. As far as the drama, I think it’s already gone. Swiatek had her racquet-tapping scandal, and this seems about the same. You just hope that these players all have someone on tour or in their box that’s as interested in their personal development as they are in their results.

Swiatek vs Kalinskaya :

This is what you came for. Swiatek vs Kalinskaya has produced some excellent matches. The “rivalry” started in Dubai in 2024 where Kalinskaya scored a surprising 4,4 win. Swiatek beat her 3,4 in Cincinnati last year, and then they met at the US Open in a 7-6, 6-4 win for Swiatek. Three matches doesn’t amount to a rivalry, but Iga’s hardcourt game lagging behind other surfaces means that all the good hardcourt players in that middle tier represent a popcorn match for fans. Kalinskaya has more power than the average baseliner, a slightly better serve, and ahh nuts she got injured reading this sentence.

Healthy Kalinskaya only appears a few times a season, so this is a good moment. I think Swiatek has been able to win these battles simply because she’s faster than Anna. Kalinskaya looks very even in rallies, but when Swiatek is able to surprise her with a backhand down the line, it usually goes untouched. On the flip side, Kalinskaya’s points tend to be a result of keeping the ball low over the net and forcing Swiatek to make poor contact and miss. I don’t think that will have changed much, but it should be another close match. Swiatek in 3. The US Open match was a straight setter, but Kalinskaya was up 5-2 in the first and I think the slightly faster courts give her a little more boost in baseline rallies.