2026 Australian Open Men's & Women's Round Three - Day 1

Men’s Singles :

Alcaraz vs Moutet :

Hanfmann did very well against Alcaraz in round 2. He was dealing with a rib issue in the later parts of the match, but he was able to hold serve quite often considering who his opponent was. He had some looks in Alcaraz service games, but in the end it was a straight set victory for Carlos. Next is another exciting matchup but one where Carlos should roll. Moutet vs Zheng was a spot I thought Moutet would physically crumble in, but I put the jinx on the wrong player. Zheng looked flat from the beginning. The announcers seemed to think it was Moutet’s variety, but Zheng wasn’t moving from center for any shots down the line from Moutet’s forehand. He eventually called the trainer, and then withdrew with a quadricep injury.

While Zheng was toast physically, Moutet didn’t really move great either. He had the gusto when it was time to get forward or on a big point, but he let a lot of stuff go that he might chase in a deciding set or were he totally fresh. Alcaraz doesn’t need insurance, but I don’t think Moutet will be able to keep fighting. Since Corentin has such good skill and hands, there should be a ton of highlight reel rallies. Moutet loves to get the crowd involved and he’s deft with the dropshots and volleys. Even his defense play is solid as he’s one of the better players on tour at hitting lobs. It’s still Alcaraz in 3 for me, but it’ll feature more rallies than the Hanfmann clash so it’s good prep for the next round where he’ll have a legitimate challenge.

Paul vs Davidovich Fokina :

Fokina was up two sets to love and had 15-30 on Opelka’s serve, and it was about two hours later when he finally won a fifth set. This was probably the best level Opelka has displayed in several seasons, so Fokina should be happy with the win. Since ADF goes to a fifth set in almost every major he plays, I think he’ll be physically okay in the next round. The problem is, Tommy Paul is also playing the best ball he has in quite some time. He’s serving pretty well, and his returning is looking very stable. The latter is the big problem because Fokina has all the tools of a top 10 player save the serve. Paul should be able to get into a number of Fokina’s service games and he’s the player more likely to get quick holds. 

Physically I think they’re pretty similar. Both are extremely strong and move well, and both have very stable groundstrokes and take the ball down the line well. This is a high level match. Unfortunately for Fokina, Paul has won all their previous meetings. They met here last season, and Tommy won 6-1, 6-1, 6-1. This is going to be much closer given Fokina’s level here and Tommy’s recent resurgence, but I think the American gets through again. Paul in 4.

Bublik vs Etcheverry :

Bublik is honestly working through a really tough draw and doing so admirably. Fucsovics and Brooksby are not winning majors. They’re not making the second week. Etcheverry probably isn’t either, but all of them are capable of grinding points out and none of them give you anything free. So far, Bublik has been tested and his focus and ability to break late in sets has not disappeared. This is peak Etcheverry as evidenced by his straight set win against Fery. Arthur played well again but it just didn’t make a difference in the end. The key for Etcheverry in this match is his weight of shot. He’s not going to be hitting clean winners, but the pressure is on Bublik to create offensive opportunities. Fucsovics made things close but ended up missing groundstrokes. It did feel though like Bublik was getting a little bit antsy at the end of the first set, and I think as well as he’s playing, the statistics just dictate that he’ll blink at some point this match. It’s hard to be that clutch at the end of sets over and over. 

Blinks aside, Bublik is doing everything better than the opposition right now. I rate his level just below Sinner and Alcaraz in the tier of Djokovic Zverev Paul Medvedev; sure he’s not really a proven commodity at majors yet but I feel his offense is strong enough to score on guys who just don’t lose to lower tier players. Him vs De Minaur (if he beats new and improved Tiafoe) will be very interesting. I see Bublik has a sleeve on his left leg but he wears that fairly often and he seemed to be moving okay. Obviously you want to win quickly, but I think here for his mental state he’ll want to ensure he gets the first set. Etcheverry is going to grind and he’s playing really solid tennis, so this is a long 3 set win or a long 4 set win or a painful 5 set loss for Bublik. I lean towards Bublik in 4. He’s been beating players better than this and he’s improved his physicality.

Tiafoe vs De Minaur :

I mentioned Tiafoe’s new training regimen and healtthy attitude, and it seems to be working. Now he gets what he earned. The trouble with training and getting healthy and committing yourself to compete your best is that you get to find out how good you are. For many people (Kyrgios/early Bublik are good examples) this is not desired knowledge. They want to make excuses or not go all out during losses or claim an injury or poor luck; its a defense mechanism, but it can be common. Here, Tiafoe has a moment. This is the split in the path, and he doesn’t need to win this match in order to succeed. If he goes out there tomorrow and grinds as best he can, he’ll win fans, he’ll entertain the world as he does so well, and he’ll get better. Find out exactly where you’re at, and what needs to improve, and keep going.

I don’t think Tiafoe is completely toast against De Minaur, but it is uphill. Alex is the hometown hero playing some of his best ball, and while a bunch of them have gone to extra sets, Alex has the lead in the h2h 3-1. Tiafoe sole win came indoors, but he did play 3 with De Minaur last season. The trouble with that being a bright point is that De Minaur was pretty bad for his standards last season. This year he looks more like himself, and I think his speed will allow him to get to more of Tiafoe’s forehand offerings than Frances’ previous opponents. De Minaur has had trouble with opponents who hit a heavier ball, but I think Tiafoe’s resurgence is enough to get him back in winning form on tour, not something that will immediately translate to top tier wins. This should be incredible. Both are extremely fast and have great touch. De Minaur in 4.

Zverev vs Norrie :

Nava got very close to snagging Norrie despite losing in 4. He should have won the second set, but overall it was a good event for him. He’s gotten stronger on serve and if he can continue improving his core-strength and balance he can cut down on the unforced errors that cost him. Interestingly, he targeted Cam’s forehand to great effect. Norrie tends to hug the baseline more on his forehand side and the ball floats up a lot more since he’s closer to half-volleying a lot of the drives. Zverev did play a close match with Muller, but him dropping one of the early sets and then pulling away gradually has been his thing. He doesn’t change his approach or alter his level, he just plays a steady brand of tennis and eventually the lower tier players can’t keep up. It’s certainly interesting, and while he doesn’t beat the top guys with it, he does almost always get to that stage to try again.

Norrie and Zverev have played some long matches, but Zverev is a little too strong for him at this point. Norrie needs Zverev errors to score, and Zverev’s servebot abilities keep him from getting in scoreboard trouble. I don’t really love Cam’s returning; he can put the ball in play, but it’s mostly blocking it back. That won’t work too well against Zverev, and standing deep isn’t an option since Norrie hits his backhand so flat. Overall, I just think Norrie has sunk into a lower weight class on tour, and Zverev is a bit like Gauff. There are some technical issues at times, but they’re making deep runs at majors anyway.

Cerundolo vs Rublev :

Rublev has had a good few weeks, and this is a spot for him to show that he’s back as a top player on tour. A handful of players have “prove it” opportunities this round. Beating Cerundolo won’t get you on the front cover of Tennis Guy Magazine, but Ceru is in that middle tier and Rublev formerly would expect to win a match like this. He’s back playing well, and he should win. The big question for me is who handles their emotions better. Cerundolo can get frustrated and gesture wildly at the net, but he doesn’t really have blowups. Rublev can get frustrated at times, and the flat and powerful hitting of Cerundolo might be a problem for him. Oddly, as I wrote that I tuned in to Fruhvirtova Valentova and Fruhvirtova got a lucky letcord to save 30-40 while serving at 5-3. Valentova did not shout or smash any racquets. Take note, Rublev.

Even though I expect some anger, my hope is that Rublev just keeps his focus and competes. Most of their meetings have been on clay, and Cerundolo won 7-6, 7-6 in Paris in their only hardcourt meeting (2024). I see the match as fairly even, but the conditions suit Rublev. He’s able to really take time away here because the courts are playing quickly, and I don’t think the heat tomorrow will really hurt him. Saturday and next Tuesday are expected to be above 100 degrees, and I think there are some players who simply cannot play in those conditions. Tomorrow should be 80 and playable. I think Cerundolo’s backhand can break down, and although Cerundolo beat Dzumhur in straights, Damir helped a lot. He couldn’t keep his backhand length consistent at all, and the issue just compounded until the match was over. Rublev will be much steadier, and I think their service ability is pretty similar. Rublev in 4-5.

Maroszan vs Medvedev :

Valentova just broke back. Is it because she stayed calm? Who knows. It certainly helps though, and a non-reaction doesn’t give your opponent anything to build hope off of. Speaking of staying calm, Maroszan is through in straight sets. His forehand has looked ridiculous this week when it lands, and his backhand depth has worked for him as well. Fabian has a big serve, and all that adds up to the right recipe to score on Medvedev. The previous meetings have gone to Medvedev, but at least one set has been close each time. This is the first time I think Maroszan can win a set. He’s gotten here fresh, and Medvedev is another guy who is resurgent but not yet at his old heights. He dropped a set to Halys, and Maro probably has more dangerous offense. In particular I think his dropshot could be useful since Medvedev doesn’t love playing in the frontcourt. Daniil should grind him down in the end, but it should be close for the first few sets. Medvedev in 4.

Tien vs Borges :

This could set the record for longest match. Borges’ win against Thompson showed two things. One, Borges is looking to wear you down. Two, there is no plan B. When Jordan started playing more offensively in the third and fourth sets, Borges didn’t deviate at all. Thompson was literally stealing the match, and Borges was still hitting the ball central, putting topspin on his forehand, and planning to win eventually. Even with total control of rallies, he still was just looking to hit a solid shot to Thompson and hope for the error. Eventually it worked, but he seemed willing to go to a 5th rather than shift tactics. I’m not trying to knock his approach, I just want to make it clear why I think this is going to be a marathon. As much as Borges can grind, I think Tien will squeak by. Tien is pretty good at creating depth and varying his forehand in baseline rallies, and he should have ample chances here. It’s a match that I think will see both get very fatigued for their next round, but that’s how it goes when you’re both capable defenders and when neither really has the ability to serve big. Tien can disappear from matches randomly, but he’s been good so far and I think his mechanics are a little more repeatable without error than Nuno’s. Him being lefty should help a bit because Borges has a pretty flat backhand and that’s the side he makes more errors on. Tien in 5.

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Potapova :

Unfortunately, Raducanu was unable to get past Potapova. The allure of a past Grand Slam champ playing a big match is always pretty good, and while I don’t think Raducanu can beat Sabalenka by any means, I like some buzz. Potapova against Sabalenka should involve some big hitting, but I think Potapova can be rushed into errors, and Sabalenka has beaten her by ~7 games in all their previous meetings. Sabalenka in 2.

Mboko vs Tauson :

Mboko and McNally was really high level play, and Mboko proved again that her combination of powerful defending and effective serving is a really tough combo for most of the tour. Her leg is still heavily taped, but she seems okay. She should win this next round as well, but this is her first really tough offensive test. Tauson came into this event struggling a bit, but she’s been good so far. She did play three with Kudermetova (which makes me calling an Mboko win feel a lot easier), but she has the power off both wings to score regardless of her opponent’s speed. The trouble for Tauson is I don’t think she’s going to defend as well against Mboko’s groundstrokes. Victoria takes the ball cross-court very well and her backhand slides a bit and I think Tauson’s lateral movement can be a step slow at times. She can make the first get, but the second one is usually the end. Mboko in 2. I do expect Tauson to make a run at some point but I think she will have a hard time holding onto a break.

Sonmez vs Putintseva :

Sonmez has earned her way here after stealing Alexandrova’s section, and she made quick work of Bondar. Up next is another very winnable match. Putintseva came into this year struggling to find any wins at all, and she’s been really successful so far. I do feel that her draw has been a bit lucky, and playing Jacquemot after the Kostyuk marathon was a good spot for a pusher. Jacquemot got frustrated, her coach walked out, and Putintseva was happy to just hit the court and profit. Here, I think hitting the court isn’t enough. Sonmez has really solid groundstrokes and a little bit more ability to create down the line with her backhand. If fatigue becomes a factor, Putintseva probably wins, but the Bondar match was quick. I don’t buy Putintseva’s strategy as effective against a player who is fine and experienced playing long baseline rallies. It will be a long and arduous test for Sonmez because it’s tough to hit through Yulia when she’s in form, but I like Sonmez in 3. She serves better, her backhand is a bit stronger offensively, and forehand to forehand I think I like Zeynep also.

Jovic vs Paolini :

Paolini beat Frech 2,3, and the comment section is full of people saying that she played poorly. It sets up a very interesting situation, because last year she beat Jovic 3,3 on a day where Jovic seemed all out of sorta. Iva “Baby Goat” Jovic has been having one of the best January’s ever. She lost a strange finals to Cocciaretto, but she’s won 9 matches in just 3 weeks and she arrives in the third round in excellent form. This is Jovic vs the wall. Iva plays very aggressive tennis and hits huge off both wings. In particular, her backhand is dangerous. It’s another American WTA star who basically wins behind their backhand. Collins, Kenin, Anisimova, the list is pretty long. Even Keys in her title runs tends to suddenly find her backhand down the line. A good backhand is good for tennis? I am brilliant.

The trouble with pronouncing Jovic champion of the world is that Paolini is extremely fast, and her best attribute is her defense. Jovic will need to maintain her aggression but it will be a big test of her stamina. Jovic has played 7 matches in the last 10 days and that’s a heavy load. She looks good so far, but there is a lengthy clash ahead. I still like her chances, but reversing a result against a defensive talent like Paolini will take a world class performance. Jovic in 2. I was tempted to say 3 but I really don’t think Iva wins the match if Paolini is able to win a set. It’s either Paolini is still a bit off and Jovic dominates, or Paolini can wear her down into forced errors.

Gauff vs Baptiste :

I’m not really sure about this one. Baptiste showed up here in middling form, and has played tremendous. Townsend and Hunter are not world-class wins, but Baptiste dominated both from start to finish. I don’t actually see a reason why she needs to get smoked by Gauff, and it’s mostly because of how well she’s hitting. Her power can keep her from having to scramble, and as usual the plan is to isolate Gauff’s forehand. Their only previous meeting was a 6-1, 6-4 win for Gauff in 2023, and despite my optimism about Baptiste’s level, Gauff’s defense can be stifling, and she has a new tool this week. 

Coco has started to use dropshots this week, and gave a little credit to Alcaraz in an interview. While I assumed her team already knew about dropshots, it seems like Gauff is enjoying adding them to her game. It’s a really suitable tactic for her, since she moves so well and is such a good doubles player. In the front-court, speed and reflexes matter, and Gauff is probably the fastest player on tour. Since she hits her backhand so heavy, it honestly wouldn’t be a bad tactic to mix in more dropshots, and on days where her forehand is struggling, it’s not a bad deviation on the forehand wing anyway. If you’re likely to wind up in a bad spot or make errors, you’re almost better off choosing a 50/50 tactic. Federer had a lot of matches where he spammed the dropshot because of back issues, and even in compromised form it still paid dividends. The more she practices it in early rounds, the better it will work in big moments also, and Sabalenka genuinely looks uncomfortable in the front-court so it could be a great equalizer against her. Gauff in 2.

Muchova vs Linette :

Parks played the best level she ever has in the last round, and Muchova was very lucky to get through. I really have never seen Parks compete so well and execute in such a lovely manner. It’s a great sign for the rest of the season. For now, Muchova plays a familiar opponent. She’s won the last 3 against Linette, although back in 2019 Linette notched a nice win. Linette’s strength is always her defense and movement, and for a sticky baseliner she serves above average. I think Muchova has the power to actually score here, and defensively she’s not as good of a mover but she does have excellent slices and intelligent shot selection. Muchova in 2-3.

Svitolina vs Shnaider :

This will be the first meeting between these two and it might be the best match of this round. Svitolina has been dragging everyone into the Svitolina swamp. She just keeps hitting until her opponents finally blink, and from there she runs away with the match. Klimovicova played an excellent first set, but when you drop the first to Svitolina it is suddenly palpable that you are 2 hours of near peak tennis away from the finish line. Shnaider may be one of the few players with the firepower to beat Elina, but she just had a tough outing against a similar player in Mirra Andreeva last week. Shnaider is here on back to back 3-setters, and I think a few unforced errors will cost her this match.

Match aside, I wanted to note how well Gibson played for the first half of the last round. She really displayed an excellent level and very well could have won the match. Her, Preston, and Jones really have a bright future. I’m leaning towards Svitolina in 3 here. I do think Shnaider can hit the ball hard enough to score on Elina, but I think her forehand timing can struggle often enough that Svitolina will get through.

Ruse vs Andreeva :

This is one where Andreeva is expected to roll, but Ruse is playing at a high level. The upset is not likely because Ruse isn’t really as consistent from point to point as you need to be to beat Andreeva, but I think it will be closer than their reputations would suggest. Andreeva in 2.