2026 Australian Open Men's & Women's Round Four - Day 2

Men’s Singles :

Musetti vs Fritz :

This past week has seen a lot of storylines disappear and others emerge. For these two players, they have a similar disappearance. Fritz was dealing with some knee issues at the United Cup and his mobility looked pretty limited. So far this week, he’s not shown much indication that he’s struggling to move. Taylor is not even wearing any brace or tape on his knee, which is a pretty good sign. Equally healthy is Lorenzo Musetti, who was having forearm issues in Hong Kong. He’s recently ratcheted up his service power and he’s hitting his forehand hard more often, so it makes sense there’d be a little soreness. Despite losing that final largely because his arm strength fell off, this week he’s looked fine. The arm sleeve it still there, but he’s playing well.

For this round, I’m imagining both come in fairly strong. Musetti just won a tremendously entertaining 5 setter against Machac, so endurance is a question, but honestly his approach to tennis is often to outlast his opponent. I expect him to be ready to compete here. Fritz is relatively fresh, and just won a 4 set battle in which Stan Wawrinka played 2 incredible sets of tennis, but was unable to maintain the level in the long run. Early on Stan wasn’t winning the forehand or backhand exchanges, and it felt like he really needed the first set tiebreak to have a chance at winning the match. The second set was incredible, but you’re not breaking Fritz multiple times per set. Fritz’s groundstroke shot selection is not really aggressive enough for him to lose entire games to errors, so against him you have to earn it.

So can Musetti earn it? I think so. Musetti has come through arguably a tougher draw here (Collignon/Sonego/Machac vs Royer/Kopriva/Wawrinka and he’s elevated his level on hardcourt. It’s really hard to score on him, and he has similar power to Wawrinka. Obviously the serve isn’t anywhere near as powerful, but Lorenzo has improved his ability to dial up a big one when he needs it. This is going to be a long battle of two grinders, and I think Musetti’s speed is the one thing that stands out. Fritz’s serving is his best attribute at times, but this week it feels like if you take away the wide one in the duece-court you are in business. Not much chance of this ending in fewer than 4 sets, and given Machac’s success I think it’s unlikely Musetti wins in 4. 

Obviously, if one of their respective injury issues flares up that will be the match decider, but if both play well I think Musetti is slightly better. He’s had a lot of solid performances against Alcaraz and Sinner, and I think his tournament prep in Hong Kong is a bit better than the United Cup. Their most recent matchup was the World Tour finals where Fritz won 3,4 but I feel like Taylor was playing much better at the time and the conditions there were a little better for him. It’s very possible the roof is closed for this one, but 3/5 tennis I think still favors the stronger athletes. Musetti in 5.

Djokovic vs Mensik :

Djokovic matches can be dangerous to discuss. If I don’t name him the eventual champion, my inbox blows up. Be that as it may, this week of change has seen a few things shift. After the first round I would have been sure Mensik was getting 4,3,2 here. Even after the Jodar win I would have been hesitant about Mensik’s stamina, but he has gotten better each round and while scouting his physical condition it was glaringly obvious to me that he’s feeling good. He’s bouncing around between points, he can’t keep his legs still while sitting down, and his serve has gotten more powerful. So at the outset here I’m not sure who exactly wins, but I am pretty sure this will be close. 

The hole in Mensik’s game is he plays much better with time. This isn’t really a unique deficiency; most players on tour do better with time. Mensik tends to hug the baseline though, so if players are hitting with good depth he tends to be near into half-volley territory and guides it back. It’s something Sinner does as well, and while it’s admirable timing, they can sometimes hit balls without much pace or depth when doing this. The best thing about Djokovic’s returning tends to be his ability to create depth, and it’s a great attribute of his backhand as well in neutral rallies. He has excellent contact and better body control, which is what allows him to adjust to hit to a location rather than a consistent pace. If Mensik doesn’t serve well, he’s in for a long day. I can give him credit for having his energy levels back, but he’s not going to win this match with stalwart defense. It has to be two things, first serves, and strong hitting. We’ve all seen the Djokovic reaction to strange bounces and heavy shots hit his way, and that’s what Mensik needs. Keep Novak from finding a rhythm, and take care of your service games.

These two have played twice and both matches have been close. Shanghai 2024 saw Novak win a tiebreaker, lose 6-1, then win the decider 6-4. Last season’s Miami Masters, where Jakub announced himself to the public as a serious contender, saw Mensik win 7-6, 7-6. It was a pretty surprising result, and he has built on it since. He is in the top 5 one tour for aces (which I never would have guessed), and he served extremely well last round. 6-2, 7-6, 7-6 with Ethan Quinn doesn’t actually sound that impressive, but Quinn came in playing some extremely powerful offense so straight sets is a decent win. The ability to elevate to play higher tier competition is something Mensik has had at times and at others he honestly hasn’t. I think he’s enjoying the conditions, and closing the roof (as they may have to due to weather) will let him serve a bit better.

I’m trying to work my way into saying that Mensik wins, but it’s difficult. Judging Djokovic’s level part of the way into a tournament is not a great tool, because he plays to the level he needs to to win each match. There is always more in the tank and more gears to move into. My point, I guess, is that this is a match where he will need to hit top gear. Actually beating Djokovic involves a level of tennis that is hard to produce, so Djokovic in 5 sounds like the most likely outcome. Who has better stamina here though? And if Botic was able to do that well, how do we think Mensik does? I’ll eat the L if I’m wrong, but based on their history and his level last round I think Mensik is winning at least two sets here. To preserve my inbox, I’ll say Djokovic in 5, but internally and secretly (earmuffs) I am suspicious of the upset here.

Ruud vs Shelton :

It’s a bit surprising to see that Ruud actually won this matchup in their only previous meeting. They played in Acapulco in 2024 and Ruud won in 3. Not the most important event, and being in a party town can always make me suspicious of results, but there is likely something to it worth using. Ruud comes into this season playing terrible hardcourt ball. Terrible by his standards, at least. This week he’s been more focused, more consistent, and at a better level than he displayed all of 2025. It’s a welcome sight, but it’s one I havent caught a lot of. Ruud has been playing the latest match of the night, and I have already woken up a few times with my phone leaning against my face and realized I missed the last match of the night. Just going off results and highlights isn’t the best way to approach this, but I’ll tell you what I know.

I know that popular opinion here is going to name Shelton the favorite, and it makes sense. He’s been a consistent performer at hardcourt majors, and he has raised his level this week after a slow end to 2025. Vacherot was in very good form, and Shelton was able to dominate things up until the third set. In my head, Ruud’s backhand doesn’t stack up well against a lefty. That’s why a few things here make it tricky. The last match, the books pricing Shelton at just -175, and Ruud’s resurgence. It doesn’t help me name an eventual winner, but I feel like this match will be closer than people think. Shelton has built up his physical strength, but Ruud has great stamina. His forehand may be tough for Ben’s backhand to maintain length on, and I expect that both of them will be able to score with their forehands off short balls.

I think Shelton’s serving will make a difference, and his aggression and impatience will mean patches of play where Ruud’s steady play makes a difference. Expecting a quality shootout, and I think Shelton will be a little more able to serve well in the end. Shelton in 5.

Darderi vs Sinner :

Darderi making the second week of a hardcourt major doesn’t sound likely, but here it is. Luciano has played excellent this week and has been a difficult puzzle for his opponents to solve. Khachanov had ample opportunities to score but he was just a bit too inefficient. Small errors crept in, and it felt like Darderi shifted into the role of the defender and thrived. One shot that particularly gave Khachanov trouble was the slice. Darderi sliced his backhand just frequently enough that it created pressure, and Karen missed a number of these. I will say Darderi’s serving was solid in this match. There were a number of break points and spots where Khachanov was going to get momentum back, and Darderi was able to come up with something big time and time again. Considering he seemed to be dealing with a stomach issue against Garin, he has really played well since then.

Speaking of issues, Sinner seemed to have a massive one last round. Spizzirri played some of the best tennis of his life for the first half of the match, and Jannik looked very uncomfortable. Since Paolini, Darderi, Cobolli have all had stomach issues, I wonder if the Italian team isn’t all dealing with something, and as I watched Sinner look very ill I began to wonder if he wasn’t affected also. The heat is always tough on Sinner, but an illness can compound things.

This match reminded me of the 2021 Australian Open in which Djokovic suffered an abdominal tear against Fritz. Djokovic was barely able to hit the ball, wasn’t moving well, and looked relatively toasted. Right at that moment, the curfew was enforced. Djokovic left the court (still not sure this was allowed) and there was a 15 minute break while the spectators were removed. When he came back, he seemed okay, and went on to win the match. Here, it was the roof rather than a curfew. I will say, Djokovic’s curfew moment was not manufactured, and this one didn’t seem to be either. The curfew was announced, and the roof closing was planned. Still, Sinner was cramping in most of his body and in his hands (this one makes things basically unplayable), and the lengthy break gave him time to recover a bit. Closing the roof also cools things off a bit, as you are no longer being directly cooked by a complex orb of combustion.

Sinner’s level raised, and Spizzirri made a few errors. It was the type of match that future opponents get a bit inspired by, and the internet went wild with mentions of redheads being genetically predisposed to struggle. While there is some science behind that, I think it is a small factor here. Sinner has always had trouble with stamina. His build is very unique, and his game is very unique for his build. He’s extremely skinny and tall, and he hits the ball as hard as anyone on tour. That formula alone means it’s hard to go the distance. He’s had trouble in long matches in cool weather and hot weather alike, and his legs in general are the thing that goes first.

This match is tougher on paper than Spizzirri, but you can be sure that Sinner and his team have been funneling health pellets and WADA approved massage gels and fluids into his system since that moment. Analysis is cheap here. Sinner’s compromised level is still a bit better than Khachanov in terms of execution, and his serving is as well. There are many matches that finish with a player looking exhausted, yet they show up okay the next round. The science and the tech is there for him to recover, and the weather will be a bit cooler. Sinner in 3-4. I don’t really see a 4th set here, Darderi is playing exceptionally well but he’s winning on consistency and a heavy forehand and Sinner is adept at making things into a backhand battle.

Women’s Singles :

Keys vs Pegula :

I did the women second today because of this match. I am a bit puzzled by the opening price of this. I’ve made this disclaimer often, but I’ll make it again. The concept of sportsbetting is fun, but the manner in which the sportsbooks operate is wildly predatory. They charge too much to make winning possible for anyone but the top 1% of bettors, they limit the potential wins of those bettors, and to actually know what you’re doing you’d have to follow a sport full-time and generally have a high level background in a sport so that you know what you’re looking at a bit clearer. Even if someone were to have the time and the background, I can assure you that betting sports is a pretty fatiguing way to make an easy living. You are constantly under stress, you have to evaluate and follow markets 24/7, and there is always the overarching “ppl are judging your profession” hanging over you. I can go on, but for now, let’s just say I would not encourage people to bet sports in the way it is currently set up. That being said, sometimes there is information in the lines, or worse, sometimes there is conflicting information. Here, Pegula is -160 to win the match. Their previous meeting was a 3 set win for Keys. Keys is the defending champion at this tournament. So when you see a price like this, it is a cause for pause.

Keys and Pegula have both looked solid on their way through this draw. I think Pegula has maintained a solid level more consistently over the course of sets, but she plays that way. Her game is predicated on solid hitting and low net clearance. She hits the ball fairly flat on her both wings, but she crunches it and it’s hard to redirect at times. Low balls can give Keys trouble, and defending a title is extremely difficult. Pegula carries in a high level, but a win against Selekhmeteva doesn’t really translate to a win over Madison. I feel like Pegula’s serving is the one reason she struggles to defeat the top tier on tour, and Keys can dial up some excellent serves when she needs to. The question here is simple. Can Keys summon her best tennis and play consistently. If yes, I think she wins in 3. Even her peak tennis is going to include some valleys, and Pegula is the guaranteed side here so I would expect her to win at least one set. If Keys is error prone like she was against Mboko last week, I think I understand the price and agree that she’ll crash out. Keys can get really rough when she’s impatient and she tends to continue going big in those spots. It’s a familiar opponent and a familiar stage. Pegula has the ability to win this but hasn’t really done it yet on this stage. Keys in 3.

Wang vs Anisimova :

Noskova and Wang had a lengthy delay to their match finishing, and Wang appeared to manage the delay better. Noskova made a number of errors, and I feel like her service delivery needs a little work. The set was going fine, but at 5-5 Noskova made 4 quick errors. From there, she never looked comfortable again. She has the same sort of service issue that Siniakova has. I feel like it’s a carryover from junior tennis, when serving is a little difficult because of the racquet weight so you sort of drag it forward. She has a great game but it feels like the mechanics could use a little sharpening so the lapses don’t occur like they did against Wang.

For now, Wang advances and it’s a great result for her. Can she win this round? I’m not so sure. Anisimova was fairly dominant against Stearns, and she represents a matchup nightmare for most players. She has good enough power so score on anyone, but in particular her backhand is a lot stronger than Wang’s. Wang will have to serve well here, because Amanda is a very aggressive returner and one of the better frontrunners on tour. It feels to me like it is not likely that Wang plays her best tennis and serves a high first serve percentage for two straight sets, and even if she does I think Anisimova will still be in tiebreakers with her. Anisimova in 2.

Rybakina vs Mertens :

Rybakina reversed the US Open result (the closeness of it at least) and beat Valentova 2,3. She’s playing well, and has a winnable match here. Mertens always plays the top players close, but tends to come up a bit short because she doesn’t have the biggest serve. She’s a great tactician and her doubles prowess means she basically can produce any shot, but the big titles tend to go to players who are serving huge or possess something that is the best of it’s kind (Swiatek’s forehand, Gauff’s speed/backhand, Sabalenka’s serve). I don’t rule her out of this matchup, as they met in Cincinnati and Rybakina only won 7-5 in a third, but it’s a tricky test to have to earn your points from the baseline against Rybakina when she’s playing well.

Mertens had a tricky test in the last round, and I think she put forth the blueprint for future opponents of Bartunkova. Mertens isolated her opponent’s backhand and never diverted from that tactic. It worked, and despite a great level of shotmaking and aggression early in the second, Bartunkova will have to improve that wing before she can win at the higher tier consistently. I think here Mertens’ variation will give Rybakina a tough time when she’s in control, but Mertens short takeback can have trouble lifting the ball over the net when the ball is struck hard. I think eventually Rybakina’s power will get her into Mertens’ service games and she’ll win in a close 2 sets.

Swiatek vs Inglis :

Unfortunately, Osaka is dealing with abdominal issues and was unable to continue in Melbourne. There were rumblings that Naomi did not want to continue after the backlash from her post-match interview against Cirstea where she deflected a bit, but I think that’s a little bit of storytelling. A player who is so devoted to winning that they’re slapping their leg and hyping themselves up between serves is not going to pass up a chance to play a much lower ranked player and advance. Osaka is trying to get back to the heights of tennis, and chances at deep runs in grand slams are not something she passes on because of etiquette fauxpas. You can point to the Roland Garros avoidance, but the big difference there is that’s a tournament where she was pretty much guaranteed to lose. She also got treatment earlier in the event for an ab issue, so I’m okay with debating the handling of issues on court, but it would be a very strange plan to lay the groundwork to plot to withdraw under scrutiny that did not yet exist yet. The puzzle pieces just don’t fit, and as much as we can make a logical argument for whether the event was good or bad or right or wrong, it is literally just a minor thing. Next time they play is the next time anyone will even be interested in it.

For now, Inglis makes the 4th round for the first time in her career. It is a huge paycheck, and rankings points that will give her a chance to get into more events. At 113 in the live rankings, with a little work or luck she could make the cutoff for future majors. Against Swiatek, I do not think she has a good chance, but Iga unraveled in the second set against Kalinskaya so there is always some hope. Kalinskaya looked to have a back issue against Swiatek. She was not ready to play when they started the match, and Iga was already at leve 99. Iga has become Ruud-like to me, in the sense that she plays a near perfect first couple games. Her opening service patterns are extremely cunning and repeatable, and it feels like only once each tactic has been done successfully does she start to struggle a bit with choices. After the first set, Kalinskaya took a medical timeout. It seemed to me like she would possibly forfeit if she went down an early break, but a few key points won and a Swiatek error or 10 led to a 6-1 win for Kalinskaya. Swiatek tightened up her approach in the third and was able to win.

Since Inglis tends to play a less-powerful baseline game, this is a tough matchup for her. Swiatek does extremely well when she’s not rushed, and she’s hitting her backhand down the line excessively well. I wonder if Iga wouldn’t benefit a little bit from slowing down between points. She does the traditional WTA march around between points, and while rushing the opponent and keeping the energy high are good, I feel like Swiatek is a thinking player and would benefit a lot from compartmentalizing points. Anyway, Swiatek in 2. Inglis is solid, but I don’t think she has the weight of shot to make Swiatek miss.