2026 Australian Open Men's & Women's Round Four - Day 1

WTA Singles :

Sabalenka vs Mboko :

This round has a ton of great matches and great matches mean confused turtles. The best Sabalenka wins this, I think we all know that. Mboko has tremendous ability to put one extra ball back in play on defense, but thus far she has played players who represent a single type of threat. McNally is a great baseliner, and Tauson has incredible power. McNally lacks explosive power, and Tauson’s lateral movement is a bit slower than the tour average. Sabalenka moves extremely well, and has the most power on tour. It’s a matchup problem for most players, and Mboko will have to play the mental game here. When Sabalenka gets frustrated, she can overhit the ball. We all watched her implode during windy conditions against Gauff last season in the Roland Garros finals, and Mboko has the type of defense and ability to absorb power that should help.

Sabalenka had an interesting match with Potapova, one that would give future opponents some hope. Potapova managed to get to two tiebreakers, and locked into an excellent level late in the second set. She didn’t end up being as consistent as needed, and her play did summon a slightly higher level from Aryna, but it’s a sign that Sabalenka is not able to shut players out when their offense is firing. Mboko’s serve and forehand are up to the task here, and her backhand down the line can be hard to read. Overall, I think she’s good enough to compete but may just end up having a hard time scoring without the aid of Sabalenka errors. Those errors will be present at times but overall I think Sabalenka combines the power of Tauson with a bit more mobility, and her serve tends to be much stronger as well. Sabalenka in 3.

Putintseva vs Jovic :

Putintseva vs Sonmez was incredibly exciting, but the end result was probably not the best one for viewers. Putintseva went almost immediately to pushmode last round. It was the exact right tactic, and Sonmez gave up a number of errors each set. In particular Putintseva’s high looped forehand down the line paid dividends. Sonmez would rush this ball and try to go cross-court, and she just tends to hit that ball a bit too flat to really score. It’s also the side Putintseva reflects power better on. Her backhand is extremely solid and she just sends it cross-court with power until it works.

This next match is one I do not think Putintseva can win. Jovic is playing extremely well, and despite the 7-6 scoreline in the second she completely dominated this match. Paolini managed some late breaks when she needed them because of tremendous defense, but Jovic hit bigger off both wings the entire time. Every shot looked like Paolini was fighting to clear the net, and it was very impressive. I stayed for the post-match interview and Jovic was really impressive. She knew exactly what went wrong late in the match and acknowledge she got a little passive with her shot selection when serving for the match, and she was extremely poised. She has a great backhand and a decent serve for her height, and having a great mind for tennis is going to go a long way.

What was most impressive to me was the relentless attack. Jovic takes a full swing on every ball and it doesn’t result in errors. If she has more power than you, you are in trouble. That is the case here. Putintseva will test her percentages and stamina, but Sonmez was able to break her down at times and Jovic is a few levels above in terms of consistency. I don’t know if Jovic’s forehand is strong enough yet to win at the highest level, but at this one I very much like her chances. Since Putintseva is playing well and is actually executing well on offense when she finally plays some, this is likely to be a close one. Paolini is better than Putintseva, but she was battling a stomach issue and didn’t really look totally herself. Jovic in 2-3. Even if she drops a set, it feels like she has the power and patience to wear down Putintseva’s forehand and her first serve is good enough to get her control of rallies.

Gauff vs Muchova :

This is one of the trickier matches to me, but the h2h points strongly to Gauff winning. Muchova is one of the consistent names thrown out as dark horses for majors, and it’s easy to see why. She has tremendous power and skill, and a very calm demeanor on the court. There really isn’t too much missing from her game, but sometimes it feels like she does everything so well that her choices are tough. She mixes it up very well but some other players have a more singular focus and it allows them to really spam tactics. So far, Gauff has beaten her fairly comfortably in their matchups. I do think Muchova is a little behind in the speed and backhand department in this matchup, so she needs to really isolate Gauff’s forehand to have a chance here.

Gauff dropping a set to Baptiste is not really the end of the world, and I would chalk it up more to the talent that Baptiste possesses. Great power and touch can go a long way in a big match, and she acquitted herself well. Gauff was at 66% first serves for the match, which is honestly pretty good for her. She only really loses when she’s completely unraveling on her serve/forehand side, so the 6 double faults I think are something she can overcome. Muchova can definitely break her, but she’s likely to have the slightly tougher time holding serve since Gauff can run down most of what she offers. Gauff in 3.

Svitolina vs Andreeva :

It makes sense for every round to get harder to predict, but some matches are really difficult. Svitolina and Andreeva do everything well, and can play tennis for the next 4 days. Their baseline ability is very similar, and 10 shots rallies will be the norm here. The only significant difference here is in their age, and Andreeva may have the deeper gas tank here. She was able to win their previous match in Indian Wells last season 7-5, 6-2, and she created 9 break points in the match so I expect her to apply a lot of pressure to Svitolina’s serve. Obviously Melbourne courts are faster so Svitolina’s serve gets a boost, but I partially except Andreeva to win again. She has excellent skill and composure in baseline rallies and I think her control of the dropshot gives her one extra way to score. Andreeva in 3.

Men’s Singles :

Alcaraz vs Paul :

The first huge test of the event comes this round for Alcaraz. Tommy Paul is playing incredibly well this week, and got a quick forfeit victory against ADF. Paul has now won 5 sets in a row against Fokina with the score of 6-1. It’s fun to play players you dominate, and now Paul will have a chance to go uphill. Tommy has lost the last 4 in a row to Alcaraz, and since Carlos’ level goes up every season the task gets harder and harder. Tommy trading sets with Sinner last season and consistently making the second week at slams speaks to his ability and talent, but when he arrives at the top 2-3 guys he seems to be the ideal opponent for spectators but slightly unable to win. I expect that to continue here. It’s generic, and not terribly complex, but Alcaraz has just a bit more in terms of consistent tennis. I think Tommy will play even for 80-90% of most sets, but he’ll also be the one who blinks first and makes errors when they both elevate. Alcaraz in 4.

Bublik vs De Minaur :

Not it! Do you know who’s going to win this match? Alexander Bublik put forth another solid effort against Etcheverry. He made some cringeworthy comments also, but that actually is standard for him. He’s 50% noble entertainer, and 50% cringelord. Those two percentages have flipped dramatically since his arrival on tour so I’m optimistic, but when you’re winning that’s more than ever the time to shut your mouth and stay humble. Infractions aside, Bublik is playing extremely well and is on a long run of match-wins. His serving is the big key for him here, as baseline rallies with De Minaur look like a nightmare.

Tiafoe spent the offseason training and getting healthy. He was already in incredible shape, but his game had fallen apart. The Tiafoe that arrived here was in great form and had a good attitude. I was a little surprised that ADM was a 5 to 1 favorite, but after watching the match I understand. Tiafoe got better, but so did Alex. De Minaur and Tiafoe proceeded to treat fans to rallies that made me surprised over and over. They were able to get to balls and trade pace so low over the net constantly. Tiafoe probably should have won the 3rd set, but Alex was just incredibly clutch and he was able to target Tiafoe’s running forehand for some errors. De Minaur seems to be serving slightly better, and he’ll need to keep that up next round.

Bublik has won the last two meetings, one in 3 sets in Paris and a 5 setter in Roland Garros last season that doesn’t really count for much. Prior to those, De Minaur had dominated the matchup, which tells me that Bublik, when motivated, possesses the game to give De Minaur trouble. Dropshots are somewhat neutralized here because of how fast De Minaur is, but one thing Alex has had trouble with in the past is big hitters. Ever since his first rough loss to Tomas Berdych, it has been very much uphill for Alex against guy with heavy topspin groundstrokes. It’s the reason he struggles so much with Sinner, and Alex has actually ratcheted up the RPMs this season. Heavy groundstrokes can negate some of the pace from ADM’s flat hitting, and the difference in serving is going to be palpable here.

This is an excellent match because it is a chance for Bublik to prove that he belongs at the top level. For him to beat De Minaur, he needs to focus and compete the entire match. Every bailout dropshot will cost him, and tantrums will cost him. I think he has the ability to win, but it’s a massive test. De Minaur’s backhand may cost him a bit here, and pressure on his second serve will be a thing. Tiafoe played well, but his resurgence only just gets him back to his standard form, and Bublik is operating at a leve or two above that. Hard to see this being resolved in fewer than 5 sets, and I’ve honestly gone back and forth a few times about who I like. Bublik’s offense is really good enough to negate De Minaur’s defense, but a handful of weaker players have been able to get deep in sets with Bublik. It’s basically a question for me of whether Bublik’s fitness fails before ADM’s timing does. Very close stuff, but I think this time I have to believe in the hometown hero. ADM in 5. It will require him to fight for 3-4 hours and play way more efficiently than Bublik, but I think Bublik is the player more likely to get bothered by the crowd and more likely to struggle if he gets down in the scoreline.

Zverev vs Cerundolo :

After the second set, it almost looked like Cam Norrie was about to pull a huge upset. He was returning well and scoring well with his forehand. Those are the keys I think that disappeared, and with good reason. Zverev continued serving well, and it is just a huge ask to constantly put returns in play. Norrie’s forehand started to go wide on his attempts down the line, and that was a huge issue because it made him predictable on that wing. He reverted to the cross-court offering on big points, and the topspin doesn’t really work there since Zverev is so tall and has such a solid backhand.

Up next for Zverev is one of his most-dreaded foes, Francisco (what if i hit it back to you) Cerundolo. It is a slightly underwhelming affair watching Cerundolo win. He has such a smooth swing and easy power that it doesn’t seem like he’s doing a lot. He moves extremely well around the court but doesn’t seem like he’s sprinting. Against Rublev, he didn’t have to do a lot, and he didn’t do a lot, but it was wildly successful. Rublev spent the match trying to create offense. He constantly tried to run around his backhand and attempt Cerundolo’s backhand, and it didn’t work. Cerundolo camped out in the backhand corner and just drove the ball right at Rublev with good depth and pace. Over and over he just gave Rublev back something that was slightly difficult to create off of, and Rublev battered away and coughed up errors for the entire match. It was hard to watch, but a perfect strategy. Hitting it right at Rublev meant he could never take his backhand up the line, and Cerundolo basically challenged him to go into his forehand side but Rublev never really pulled the trigger.

Cerundolo has beaten Zverev a few times on clay, but on hardcourt Zverev has the most recent win. I’m always ready to see Zverev fold, but here I think it’s less likely. He’s serving really well this week which is good, but he’s also coming to net and hitting his forehand well. Norrie’s short and deep returns to Zverev’s forehand were hit quickly down the line. Usually when Zverev is feeling off he shapes that ball in without much pace, so it’s a good sign he’s seeing the ball well this week and not overthinking. His serving should give him an edge here against Cerundolo, and it’ll take a world-class returner to get him out of his rhythm. Given their history, going down early against Cerundolo could bother him, but I think Zverev’s relatively conservative shot selection actually flips the script here. Cerundolo will have to create for himself a bit here rather than just maintaining a solid level. Zverev usually serves well, but he’s been very willing to come to net this week and that creates a few more free points for him and a bit more pressure on the return. I’ve been fooled before, but it looks like the best level he’s displayed in a while and I think he’ll be able to drag his way through again. Zverev in 4-5.

Medvedev vs Tien :

I feel a bit bad that Maroszan wasn’t able to win the previous round. There are a lot of times where the underdog sprints out to a big lead, but the favorite begins to drag them into deep fatigued waters in the third set. This wasn’t that. It really did not look like Medvedev would win this match until the 4th set started off with a Medvedev break. I mentioned in the DC chat that Medvedev would just need 1 set to believe, but I didn’t know if the belief would translate to a win. Maroszan played way more patient this week, and that made the difference against Daniil. Rather than try to escape rallies, he was very willing to just drive an extra ball down the center or cross-court. Medvedev thrives on outlasting his opponents, but if they’re patient, have good technique, and don’t feel pressured in rallies, he actually looks like the one who’s in trouble. This was Maroszan’s best match ever (imo), and it’s a great sign for this season.

A lot of players have stepped up and Learner Tien is no different. He had a bunch of great results last season, but now they’re expected, and he’s still delivering. The first set was a really close contest, and Borges did serve for it. Tien managed to break back for 5-5 and the tiebreaker was extremely well played. The best part of Tien’s game is his precision. Even on big points, he’s able to send the ball to slightly aggressive targets and his execution is excellent.

Medvedev against Tien is the Svitolina Andreeva of the men’s game. Their previous meeting was in the quarterfinals of Shanghai, and it was a 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 win for Medvedev. Given their levels in the previous round, it’s hard to see either one pulling away. Medvedev has to be a bit mentally fried after that comeback, and Tien doesn’t really need to bail out of rallies. The big difference in my mind is that Maroszan has power and a huge first serve. He’s able to score on Medvedev in one swing. Tien usually takes a few swings to get the job done. I do think Tien might be fresher here, but Medvedev just beat a much tougher set of opponents (Halys/Maroszan vs Shevchenko/Borges). Medvedev also was only 4/12 on break points in Shanghai (3/5 for Tien) so there is a chance with variance that Medvedev does a little better.

The major leak for Medvedev here is second serves. If his first serve percentage is high, he should win. In Shanghai though he only won 28% of second serve points, which is pretty bad for a guy whose approach is to be more steady from the baseline. On a day where most matches are very close, this is tough to call. The factors are pretty clear, but on the day things can change. The rallies are going to be exhausting here, and although I think Medvedev is a little better and has a stronger serve, his 5 setter could make this a very even affair. Medvedev in another 5.