2026 Australian Open Men's & Women's Quarterfinals - Day 2

Men’s Singles :

Djokovic vs Musetti :

Djokovic has become a mysterious figure for me in these events. In the past he would always elevate to the level necessary for each round, and there was no level he could not hit. Now in the later stages of his career, his top gear usually sits somewhere just below the top level of the tour. He can still play even with anyone for an extended period, but the superhuman guarantee is not always there. Since this is the first event he’s playing this year, and since he hasn’t played anyone at the top of the tour, his celing is very undetermined. I’m interested to see where he’s at for this match more than I’m sure I can predict it.

Based off history, Djokovic should win. He’s 6-0 against Musetti, and last season he won 6-2, 6-2 in Miami, and beat Musetti in the finals of Athens in a close third set. Those are two very isolated moments, but I would call them a trend. Musetti has been improving steadily over the past season, and he’s playing his best hardcourt tennis right now. A year or two ago, Musetti straight setting Fritz would have required a major letdown from Fritz. Last round it happened while Fritz played decent. Musetti’s speed on defense just allowed him to put the extra ball back and when the situation was reversed, Taylor was unable to make the same gets. It ended up meaning that Fritz had to play more aggressive and without errors, and that’s a tough formula. Musetti was able to land a number of deep returns and since Fritz couldn’t give up the baseline, Lorenzo ended up pressuring Fritz into some half-volleys and forced attempts that he wouldn’t normally be looking for.

This match looks good for Musetti if you go off the Botic/Djokovic highlights, but those told a strange story and mostly featured Botic points. Djokovic cruised through the match, and the scoreline was a little close but it was still a straight set win. One thing Djokovic still does extremely well is get depth on returns and Musetti can struggle with that since he has a one-hander. Musetti’s backhand slice is really solid here but I feel like Djokovic’s precision and clean contact make this a ball he’s able to work nicely off of. Math is fun so Botic being close and Musetti being way better could mean a Musetti win, but it overlooks Novak’s ability to elevate and the h2h dominance. It isn’t all physical dominance. The aspects of Musetti’s game that he has improved (serving and average aggression) are things that cost him in the past against Djokovic and the question here is whether he’s improved them enough. Their two stocks appear to be merging towards center but Djokovic’s isn’t moving much.

The most important thing to me here is that Djokovic is fresh for this match. Cumulative fatigue can get to him, and this is going to be a long match despite the past dominance. Musetti’s defense, power, and athleticism make him a difficult out for anyone, and the manner in which he dismantled Fritz seemed on par with the way Novak has defeated Taylor in the past. The one reason I’m not totally on board with a Musetti win here is that he lost to Bublik in Hong Kong. Yes, his arm was compromised, but his plan was to outlast Bublik in the rally and it’s hard to do that against Djokovic because of his composure in the rally. He doesn’t really feel pressure until you move him. Musetti was also up against it against Rublev in Hong Kong. This match is scheduled in the evening session so I don’t think Djokovic will have any heat-related stamina issue. For me, Djokovic’s quality and the h2h dominance spell a win, but Musetti’s improvement (which is largely from getting a look at the top level and seeing what he needs to do) will make a difference. This will probably be their closest match ever on hardcourt, and will give us a good look at how much of a threat Novak is to Sinner/Alcaraz. Djokovic in 4-5. I don’t love writing off Musetti, but when I think about who is more likely to serve out a match it feels like it’s Djokovic. The Fritz dominance was great, but Djokovic moves way better than Taylor and has a more versatile skillset on defense.

Shelton vs Sinner :

Shelton is 0-7 against Sinner, and has never won a set. He comes into this event struggling to find form, and though he’s stepped it up, it seems he’s being ruled out here. I’m not so sure. Shelton has never won a set against Sinner, but he’s been to a tiebreaker 6 times. When you’re playing the best returner on tour and you’re getting to tiebreakers, it’s a very good sign for your chances to eventually make progress. This doesn’t seem like a bad time to do it. Sinner had a very scary match against Spizzirri, and Darderi managed to make some late progress in the match against Jannik last round. Odds are Sinner shows up and plays well here, but there is a half decent reason to scrutinize lapses in his play and have hope. Shelton might be dominated here, but he’s one of the guys actively chasing Alcaraz and Sinner. He competes well against them, and while the weaknesses are clear (lack of offense/versatility on the backhand, slightly over-aggressive shot selections) these are things he’s working on. He has a big enough serve to compete, he has a huge forehand, he’s putting in hours in the gym to get stronger, and he keeps a positive attitude even on the way out of events.

Against Ruud, Shelton made some tactical switches that really gave him the edge. He started serve-volleying and it worked constantly. Ruud tends to use height and spin on his backhand rather than power, and Shelton was able to punish this wing often. I watched the first set and thought Ruud played excellent. The next two did not go so well. Casper played well early in the fourth, but he gave up too many break points and couldn’t get a look at Shelton’s serve. Shelton’s not exactly the greatest frontrunner, but the closer he gets to the finish line the more he lets his arm go on the serve, and the result is unplayable service games just when you’re the most frantic to get returns in play. I did like the way Casper went after his forehand and he served decent in the 1st and 4th, but overall Shelton was just a bit better.

Sinner has a few ways to win this, but the main one is to pepper Shelton’s backhand. Ben has improved this wing, but since he doesn’t hit it well down the line and his angles cross-court don’t tend to go short very often, Sinner can sort of camp in the duece court when the ball is there. Shelton is basically in this one as long as he’s serving well, and given Sinner’s lapses this may be the first time he loses a set to Ben. At the same time, coaches and PR statements will tell you different, but I don’t think Sinner is as worried/focused in a match against Darderi as he is against Shelton. He’ll be ready from 0-0, and that has proved to be a big problem for Ben to solve. When Jannik starts getting low on the ball and really locking in, he creates havok. He can craft short angles and go down the line without telegraphing it, and he has the rest of the game too. He’s playing dropshots well and in key moments, and there is always the serving to fall back on. Overall, Shelton just has to play absolutely perfect to win and it is likely that he blinks a few times each set. Even if he plays the game of his week here and keeps Jannik out of his return games, Sinner still has a big enough offense to score. Sinner in 4.

Women’s Singles :

Pegula vs Anisimova :

Pegula has done it. She’s once again played herself into the second week of a major and convinced me that she has a chance to keep going. Keys made a number of errors in her loss to Pegula, but Jess had done well in that h2h and Keys was a little rough heading in. If h2hs and shape heading in matter, then Pegula can win this match too. Anisimova and Pegula have played three times recently. In 2024 Pegula won both their meetings in 3, and last season Anisimova beat her 2,5 in Miami. That would make me toss out all the records or use the Anisimova result, but I did not really love the level from Amanda last match. Wang fought hard and drove back a number of shots with interest, but Anisimova had a dozen chances to take the match over in the first, and she missed. Her forehand on the run especially seemed like a contact issue, and that’s really good for Pegula because she mostly hits her forehand cross.

Given Anisimova’s aggressive returning and Pegula’s slightly small stature, it will be hard for Pegula to win in straight sets. Anisimova did squander some chances against Wang, but she still had those chances. I’m expecting Pegula to win in three. She’s playing really solid, has had success before, and Anisimova has not only made errors and had contact issues, she has also reacted to them fairly frequently. This tells me that she’s not exactly feeling ultra confident here, and that can compound in a long match against a player who’s largely just hitting the ball solid and looking to wear you down into errors. Pegula in 3.

Rybakina vs Swiatek :

Rybakina played incredibly well against Mertens. She has had good success against her, and Elise helped by struggling on serve, but Rybakina was able to create offense with a single swing. It was the best version of Rybakina, and when you see that it’s hard not to think about a title run. Elena served incredibly well, and I think that gives her the slight edge here. Swiatek is still zipping people and playing extremely well, but her hardcourt offense is just not the same as Rybakina’s.

Oddly, I think the service order will matter a lot here. If Rybakina is serving first I think she’ll win the first set. Swiatek has opened up all her matches with a solid service game, and getting on the board first lets her play a little bit more confidently. Problems for Rybakina here are Swiatek’s backhand. Iga is going down the line really well this week, and creating sharp cross-court angles as well when the ball is up high or slow. If Rybakina wants to go into that wing, she needs to hit the ball hard to ensure she doesn’t wind up having to defend. Rybakina is playing well, but her odds of winning points where she’s brought wide and has to sprint to the next court are not high. I don’t think either play can defend against their opponent. Swiatek is a good bit better than Mertens, but Rybakina’s power will cause her to make errors also. These two are closely matched, but Swiatek has had more lapses in level so far this event, and her serve is more likely to be under pressure in this matchup. Since I think neither can defend against the other too well, I think they’ll split sets, and Rybakina will just be the player holding easier in a third. Rybakina in 3.