2026 Australian Open Men's & Women's Quarterfinals - Day 1
Women’s Singles :
Jovic vs Sabalenka :
Iva Jovic is into her first Grand Slam quarterfinal. That alone is a huge accomplishment, but the manner in which she has arrived is what’s really impressive. Jovic has been outhitting her competition for the past week, and the level hasn’t dropped. The win against Paolini indicates that in her weight class she is very much able to beat anyone. I figured she would beat Putintseva, but 0,1 against a player whose plan is to play defense and earn mistakes is the best explanation of Jovic’s game that there is. She really doesn’t miss when she has control, and every shot is hit with intent. To go cross-court, down the line, cross-court, down the line over and over again is a drill lots of player execute in practice, but in a match it’s a completely different story. Jovic’s backhand is world class right now, and her forehand is not the biggest shot in the world but the quality and consistency is there. I would say the same about her serve. It isn’t something that’s going to score constant aces, but she lands it deep in the box very often and it sets things up nicely.
In short, Jovic is excellent. There have been a series of Americans who win behind their backhand (Collins, Kenin, Anisimova) and it appears that the mold is still working. In sport, the reward for improving is getting to test yourself at the top level. That is the story for this match. Madison Keys is the defending champion, but Sabalenka has been the top tier of hardcourt tennis for a long time. It’s their first meeting, so this is as much a fact-finding mission as it is a quarterfinal. Jovic will be making these deep runs quite often based on the level she’s displayed over the last 8 months, so the elements of her game she needs to work on or shift are what her and her team will gain from this. I don’t rule out her coming through, but it does feel unlikely. Jovic has been really good when she’s the bigger hitter, but against Svitolina she had a tougher time. Being able to wrestle control of rallies away from your opponent is really key for Iva’s style, and it’s hard to trade with Sabalenka.
Aryna is serving well, and already dealt with a lot of extended baseline rallies and scrambling against Mboko last round. Mboko and Jovic (and a few others) do look like the future, but I don’t think their offense is yet at the level to upend Sabalenka. The possbility of a Sabalenka collapse is always there if the scoreboard gets close, but it’s likely they close the roof for the matches tomorrow so it’ll be easier for Sabalenka to serve. Slight boost for Jovic because the closed roof can have things playing slower, but I still think she’s going to have a difficult time returning well enough to avoid Sabalenka overpowering her. In neutral rallies, I do think Jovic is even because she’s more consistent. I’m expecting a close match but one in which Jovic is a break worse each set. Sabalenka in 2.
Gauff vs Svitolina :
Gauff will be happy to have gotten past Muchova last round, because Karolina hit a very good level in the second set. She was playing solid in the third as well, but halfway through some errors crept in right in a row and the match hopes fizzled out. Dropping a set is never ideal, but I’m willing to ignore it because Gauff’s forehand actually hit well for most of the match. The only thing that can completely take Gauff out of a match is when she’s unable to swing her forehand confidently, so her feeling good on that wing means we get the best Gauff and the best Gauff is great tennis.
Speaking of great tennis, Svitolina played the match of the tournament last round. She’s always been a consistent player, but last round she hit the ball as hard as she could every chance she got. The result was an extremely well won 2 set win against Mirra Andreeva. Svitolina played excellent, but the match ultimately came down to weight of shot. Andreeva was having trouble redirecting into the court on the average ball, and really only won points when she played a perfect point or Svitolina missed. In between all the pressure she applied in rallies, Svitolina served very well down the T from the ad side.
The win was the type of performance that makes you wonder how Svitolina hasn’t won a major yet, but having a big power advantage against a similar style player is a huge boost, and that advantage doesn’t really exist at the top level. Gauff hits the ball as big as Svitolina, and is much physically stronger than Andreeva at this juncture. She’s also much faster, and that’s going to be a key here because Svitolina was able to catch Andreeva flat-footed a number of times. It’s a funny spot because Andreeva does strike me as more consistent from the baseline, but I think she’s looking to hit the ball lower over the net and create more, and that caused her errors. Gauff tends to go more with power and pressure, and the challenge to try to hit a winner past her is tough enough that she’s fine rolling the ball in or using more height.
Gauff won both of their previous meetings in 2024, but both were 3 set matches. Given Svitolina’s level and Muchova taking a set off Gauff in the previous round, it does make sense that this would go the distance. One thing I’ve noticed about Gauff is that she tends to continue her streaks against the players she can beat. The reason she wins is usually that her opponents have a hard time creating points against her, and although Svitolina’s backhand is excellent I think Gauff is more likely to score in neutral rallies because she can lean into it without really raising the error count too much. The flip side of Gauff’s dominance is that she does make errors, and scoreboard pressure can go a long way to impacting her offensive game. Gauff in 3 is what I expect. It’s generic based off their history, but while Svitolina is peaking I do feel that Gauff has located some of her better tennis as well.
Men’s Singles : ##### Alcaraz vs De Minaur :
Tommy Paul remains one of the consistent performers against the top of the tour, but he never quite snags them. He does everything well, but he’s just slightly more likely to be off on his backhand cross on a given point. It’s really wild to watch him play even with Alcaraz only to come up a tiny bit short on a 16 shot rally in a tiebreaker, and wilder is that he consistently makes the second week and always plays the top guys well, but I never really consider him as a threat for the title. I’m not sure what he can change at this point, so for now it was a great tournament and he put on an incredibly show for the fans. Alcaraz hasn’t really hit his peak level, but he seems able to grind through anyway. Against De Minaur, I think we’ll see the best level from Alcaraz, because if we don’t the upset is on the table.
Alex has had trouble against Alcaraz and Sinner for the same reason that Medvedev has : they’re magical shapeshifting tennis wizards. Everyone knows. JUST ADMIT IT! SHOW US UR COOL CLOAKS AND POTIONS! When these guys aren’t doing wiz biz though, they hit the ball with a great deal of topspin. Their average shot is hard for De Minaur to really redirect with authority, and it’s really hard for him to win backhand exchanges as flat as he hits the ball. Alex has looked incredible this week (probably his best level ever), but his style hasn’t change. He’s serving excellent, but I think Alcaraz will be able to put a lot in play. The best thing Alex is doing is defending to the forehand wing. He’s been able to create sharp angles cross, and that’s a good plan for him because it can set up his flat forehand inside out down the line. The trouble is that simple plans don’t really work against Carlos. Fritz talked about this last season. There are tactics that can work, but after a point or two Alcaraz adjusts. It requires top tier tennis to beat him, and for several hours.
De Minaur has shown this week that he can keep his level high for an entire match. Bublik was completely overwhelmed by him, and deflected a bit by talking about the court speed being too slow. It is difficult to hit through the court in a night session with the roof closed, but De Minaur was just too much for him on the day. Alex kept constant pressure on Bublik, and Bublik went bigger and bigger until errors flowed. To stop Bublik’s offense from winning a set is one thing, but do leave him on 4,1,1 is very impressive. I’m not really inspired by the level of crashout that Bublik had here. He’s been playing well and this was a good spot to keep quiet and dig in. Medvedev (oddly) played his match exactly right. You keep your head down, you keep a good attitude, and you accept your beating. I would note that given this result, I think Tiafoe is likely to have a good season. He was hanging in with De Minaur for a lot of the match.
Here, I think Alcaraz wins. De Minaur has improved greatly, but I think the difference in weight of shot is going to remain an issue for him. He has to do more, and his serve and backhand are issues where Alcaraz should be a few points better each set. Alcaraz in 4.
Zverev vs Tien :
Ha! Do you know who’s going to win this match? I don’t. This tournament has a very promising undertone for the tour, because a number of players have gotten themselves in very good form to start the season. Learner Tien played the best match I’ve ever seen from him against Medvedev. He did nearly everything right, and it was clear only a set in that there was nothing Medvedev could do to win. Tien was clinical from the baseline, and did not miss. He executed dropshots time and time again, and Daniil tried many different tactics but nothing seemed to work. There is a slight caveat here for me because Medvedev did look a bit flat after the 5 set comeback vs Maroszan. That’s not Tien’s fault, but I would want to see that level against a different opponent (who hits a heavier ball) in order to buy into it. Even with that skepticism though, Tien looks like a significant threat for the upset here, and he defeated Zverev last year at Acapulco in straights.
So, Tien? It would be cool, because his style of tennis is very enjoyable, but there are some issues. One, Zverev is playing about as high a level as he has since his ankle injury against Nadal. He represents a much different challenge than Medvedev for a few reasons. His gastank is much deeper at this point after a steady but calm win against Cerundolo. He serves much bigger than Medvedev, who has never really been the same after some shoulder issues popped up a year or so ago. His ballstriking is also much heavier, as he has traditional topspin strokes. The sneaky aspect of Zverev’s game that I think is way different is his speed moving forward. Medvedev struggles against dropshots and is still a bit uncomfortable at net. Zverev isn’t Nadal by any means at net, but he has an extremely quick first step forward for his height, so Tien will have to select his opportunities carefully.
I watched the Acapulco match (highlights at least) to get a sense of how it went, and one thing that stood out to me was Zverev’s forehand was a little weaker in that match than it’s been this week. He was regularly rolling it in and leaving it short. This week he’s been fully committed to the swing, and the result is that there isn’t really a weak point in his game right now. He’s been humble in press also, and this is positive for him because it means he won’t immediately go into his thoughts when things get tough. I do think Tien’s precision and consistently probing offense will get to Zverev at some point. Tien has been relentless this week, and the other thing I noted in the Zverev match was how often Zverev hit the ball and then took a step back. That control and lack of pressure is a big boost to the way Tien plays. His contact is excellent and his footwork is very well drilled, so if you don’t rush him in some way he is probably going to run you around. Zverev has excellent defense, but he’ll want to avoid trying to use his legs to win this match.
I think the big question for Tien’s side is how he returns serve. Zverev is serving well and at a high percentage. The delivery is fast and the trajectory makes it tough to get frequent deep returns in. Zverev has been coming to net often and he’s been more aggressive with his +1 on the forehand wing than I’ve seen in a long time. I understand that Tien has made improvements, but I think Zverev has elevated his level here and is a good bit more motivated than he would be in Acapulco. The good news here is that if I’m wrong about Zverev winning a close match based on his serving ability, it means Tien will have played an excellent match. Watching him ball is incredibly fun, and seeing the young players on tour win in big moments is awesome. Still, this is a prove it spot. Zverev in 4.