2026 Australian Open Men's Round One Writeup
Men’s Singles :
Alcaraz vs Walton :
I watched the Korean exhibition and loved what I saw from Alcaraz. The outcome wasn’t so important to either, but Alcaraz was able to dial up some well located serves. He has one of the more underrated serves for a #1, but he’s always been effective even without great placement due to his variation (in location and pace). If he adds that ability to thump one the way Sinner can, he could wind up in fewer tough spots. Heading into this event it felt like Sinner only really had Alcaraz to worry about, and Alcaraz would be the player more likely to have some rough matchups earlier in the draw. The threats aren’t generally winding up in a 5th set, but Alcaraz is a little less disciplined with his shot selection in the easier matches, and this can lead to random dropped sets and close moments.
No real danger in his early rounds here, but I think even for a top tier athlete getting to the finals as fresh as possible helps. Dismissing opponents in a dominant fashion also really helps to force future opponents to already view themselves as having to play their absolute best/redline to compete, which can lead to more unforced errors. We’ve watched plenty of players implode against Djokovic and the rest of the big 4, and at home “you don’t even need to go that big!” seems clear but the reputation and aura does have a minor effect on what shots most opposition think they need to go for.
Just from an overall perspective, it never hurts to establish a rhythm that is closer to your top gear so that locking in requires less focus. Since Nadal played every point as hard as he could from his first arrival on tour, that eventually became his baseline level. Even when he’s off or on a tough surface, he still competes his best. The leaks for Alcaraz and Sinner are extremely minor at this point, but that is one for Alcaraz to iron out. Leveling up the service location will basically make even the Zverev/Bublik threats into spots where he can be favored even when they play their best. For right now, Bublik/Musetti/Djokovic/Zverev are probably the second tier contenders for this title. There are other players like De Minaur, Rublev, and Paul who have the ability to almost guarantee a second week, but they aren’t likely to beat both of these guys, and that is now what will be required to win a title.
For this round, I would expect a fun match where Walton does a little better than expected. He played Alcaraz in London on grass last year and only lost 6-4, 7-6 so he won’t enter the match with too much trepidation. Walton has a pretty good serve and good athletic ability for server. Rallies will be entertaining, and obviously Alcaraz will win. Alcaraz in 3.
Hanfmann vs Svajda :
Hanfmann had a rough 2025 and has an opponent here who turned in excellent performances in the qualifiers. Svajda actually played excellent in the US Open qualifiers as well so he’s been trending upwards for quite some time here. As a former junior standout there’s no reason he can’t crack the top 100 this season. Svajda in 3-4. Hanfmann still have a very dangerous serving game and huge power but I feel the lack of consistent tennis from him means he’ll make the handful of rally ball errors that Svajda wont.
Zheng vs Korda :
Korda is often injured, and I don’t really love his effort at times. His median level of tennis is good enough to beat Zheng, who thrives on consistent baselining and is a former NCAA champion, so the real question here is does the match end? Zheng’s whole job here is to basically keep Korda out there as long as possible and hope to grind him into a withdrawal. He’s excellent at tennis but Korda’s game is just bigger and his serving is way more effective. Korda in 3-4 or Zheng via withdrawal.
Schoolkate vs Moutet :
Schoolkate plays a high level in big moments but tends to play to the level of his opponent at times also. Hes managed to maintain direct entry into the AO here which is excellent, but he’s always hovering around the fringe of the tour. I think this is a bad matchup since he doesn’t really do anything better than Moutet. Similar serve quality, Moutet can also compete all day, and he has a bit more variety. There is a chance the home crowd can rattle Moutet since he has the emotional stability of a swan, but this is most likely Moutet in 3.
Paul vs Kovacevic :
Tommy Paul has managed to remain in the top 20 despite falling almost completely off the radar. He was the Berrettini prototype for a couple seasons where he was always making the quarters or the occasional semi, but always losing to the big names in a gutsy 3-4 sets. Now it seems he’s in the second half of his career, so matches like this are a bit more intriguing. Kovacevic has played his best tennis to start the year, but he seems best against lower tier opposition. He’ll need to serve his absolute best here, and Tommy actually played some tennis this past week (currently in the semifinals of Adelaide), so I think he’ll keep it going. Paul in 4-5.
Tirante vs Vukic :
Tirante can get a little frustrated at times on the court, and he’s often just winning enough to stay on tour so it’s understandable that every match is stressful. I bring this up because Vukic can honestly be infuriating to play. He hits backhands that have no pace or spin at times, but then crushes one down the line. He can serve inefficiently for a few weeks, then randomly be Bublik for a few matches. His forehand can look loopy like Kyrgios, but then at his best he starts to crush winners inside out. In short, it’s hard to know what to expect, and that can be tough for a player like Thiago whose best bet here is to go a bit pushmode and try to earn errors. Given Vukic’s decent level last week, there probably won’t be enough, but given Vukic’s track record, there will be enough to inspire hope. Vukic in 3-4.
Budkov Kjear vs Opelka :
Bad Opelka is not worth watching. Good Opelka remains almost comical. There is something funny about the angles his serving creates, and watching opponents try to keep their tantrums internal while he wobbles around and whacks forehands that hit the backstop on a fly is pretty entertaining. I’ve been told he’s said some very dumb things on the internet, but I’ll stick to the tennis here. Budkov (please let me know if it’s offensive to use just the middle name, my wrist is still healing so I’m trying to keep the typing to a minimum) had a really interesting qualifying run. He was consistently the less effective player on hardcourt and his tactics were not really high level, but his ball-striking won him every match. He has such good discipline and technique that in pressure moments he was able to convert passes and drive his backhand with full force while other players decelerated. It makes this a pretty even contest for me. Budkov is not going to be able to break Opelka more than 2-3 times per match I’d imagine, but his reserved but solid ballstriking is going to make it really tough for Opelka to escape rallies. When Opelka thinks he’s going to get moved around the court, he’s much quicker to pull the trigger and that can make life easier on Budkov. This is about as close to a 50/50 match as I can see in an early round. I like Opelka but I also thought McCabe would win against Budkov, so I might just be working on the wrong sliding scale with the “Opelka is a few notches better on serve than McCabe” math. Opelka in 5.
Misolic vs Davidovich Fokina :
Misolic is always dangerous because of his power but Fokina is a steady producer at majors, even if he sometimes steadily produces 5 setters. ADF just beat Vacherot in 2 and Misolic just lost to Shevchenko so ADF should win this in 3.
Bublik vs Brooksby :
Brooksby’s return to tour has had a few brought points but he hasn’t reached the level he was at before his suspension. He’s back inside the top 50 which is good, but this is a terrible draw. Bublik played lights out in Hong Kong and looks to be more committed to baseline tennis this season. Add to that that he’s hitting his forehand and backhand harder than last season, and for me he is the only guy I think can actually compete (from an eye-test standpoint) with Alcaraz and Sinner in a 2/3 format. 3/5 is tough, but I think he will have an extremely good tournament here. Conditions are perfect for him, and he’s in better shape than ever and has a full year of trying out this “trying” thing under his belt. Bublik in 3-4.
Ugo Carabelli vs Fucsovics :
Good draw for Fucsovics, but his proclivity for playing behind the baseline and his lack of an offensive backhand mean any match can be close if his opponent limits unforced errors. Carabelli doesn’t have the serving to really beat Marton, so I’d expect Fucsovics to win in 3-4. Some players seem to excel more when they’re not in control, and I think Fucsovics fits that bill. Grinding out a win against a slightly more offensively capable player seems like his best thing, so it’ll be interesting to how patient and tactical he is here in a match where he should be in control.
Kecmanovic vs Etcheverry :
Kecmanovic lost the last two to Etcheverry, and I expect him to lose again. Tomas has not been playing well the past two seasons, and he had a few good matches in the last month. I think a fresh start helps him, and Kecmanovic seems to be a little bit unsure of his shots and serving right now. Etcheverry is slightly less aggressive but his power and durability should get him through. Etcheverry in 5.
Fery vs Cobolli :
Arthur Fery might have played the highest level of any men’s qualifier, so this is an unfortunate draw. Cobolli hasn’t played a tournament yet this season aside from the United Cup so it’s hard to gauge how he’ll come out here, but he’s really good and physically strong. He does have some matches where he loses his forehand timing, so Fery could be a dangerous opponent, but this is one where you sort of expect Cobolli to break Fery’s heart at some point with good quality play and a little more stamina.
Tiafoe vs Kubler :
Kubler played well in qualifying, but he’s lost in straight sets to Tiafoe every time. Tiafoe is in a bit of a slump for the past year, but is still capable of a solid level of tennis when he’s healthy and motivated. I don’t see a reason he’ll be challenging for the second week here, but Kubler seems like he’s in a bad spot here. Both have serviceable backhands but Tiafoe’s has more variety and lower net clearance. Both do the work on their forehand speed with footwork, but Tiafoe’s is faster and gets more spin, and he’s quicker around the court also. Tiafoe has an edge in serving too, so even though he’s vulnerable right now, it’s a matchup where on paper Kubler is a game or two worse in every set they play. Tiafoe in 4-5.
Kypson vs Comesana :
Kypson is pretty good. He has a big serve, nice smooth groundstrokes, and it all adds up to a good offense. I don’t really see him having great success at tour level though because he does everything well but nothing spectacular. A guy like Comesana should be able to use his speed and defense to get him into rallies and gradually make it a baseline game. If Comesana is able to put pressure on Kypson’s serve, I think he can win in 4-5. This is a spot where Kypson has his best surface so things are slightly in his favor, but I think that only brings it to about even despite Comesana having a bad 2025 on hardcourt. Comesana should be regarded as a tricky opponent in general because he randomly serves well, and because he plays big moments well. I think his variety and movement are a factor that Kypson cannot match, and he’ll eventually wear down the American server. I’m a little more confident in that because Kypson just lost to Mmoh and Nava, who are similar baseliners to Comesana in terms of their defensive presence and court coverage.
Navone vs Medjedovic :
Take the Korda section and apply it here. Medjedovic doesn’t tap out of matches as often, but he hits a physical wall in many and basically loses the third while going big and breathing hard. If he’s fine, he can win this. Navone covers the court extremely well and has a great backhand, but his forehand doesn’t clear the court and he has the usual claycourters chance on hardcourt. Medjedovic will have ample swings at Mariano’s serve, and his power and serving should win him the match. The only way I see this being an upset is if it’s too hot for Medjedovic, and it would need to include some 50+ minute sets early on in order for that to happen. Medjedovic in 3-4.
Berrettini vs De Minaur :
The trouble for me here is every week the books have been predicting that Berrettini will be back! Maybe he’s just a popular name still, but I only see the occasional high level set from him, and it’s hard to predict when it will occur. De Minaur, on the other hand, is someone I expect to bring it every match. This is his home slam, and after a 2025 season that saw him steadily improve after coming back from injury, I think the tour is prime for him to work his way into the top 5. Matteo has had success in the past against Alex, but ADM won their last meeting 6-1, 7-6 indoors and I’m expecting something similar here. Even if Berrettini wins a set, I don’t think the odds of the outcome shift. He just hasn’t grinded out a big win since his return from the leg issues. De Minaur in 4 (if he gets the first I’d say 3).
Zverev vs Diallo :
Diallo has the chance to do something really cool here, but he’s had a few losses recently that make it unlikely. 2025 was his breakout season and he has a mercurial offense, but he also plays with very thin margins and that can cost you. Zverev is a decent returner because of his height, and while he lets everyone play because he cannot tennis, his grinding style actually may expose Diallo’s percentages eventually. Should be a tiebreaker in one of the early sets, but I think Zverev’s lateral movement and ability to hit passes will eventually see him earn some cheap breaks against Diallo. Zverev in 3-4.
Popyrin vs Muller :
Muller came back to school this year only to find out there is a new kid named Giron. So far, Giron has not been very nice to him. After two quick losses, it’s hard to say how Muller will fare here. Popyrin is off to a similar start, losing to Opelka and Halys. I caught the Opelka match, and it wasn’t the best level from Popyrin. He usually does play well at his home slam, and a long match gives him a chance to really utilize his serving and power. The long match is also good for Muller, who doesn’t really have explosive power or serving but can really drag people from the baseline. Both have turned in performances to start the year that could get them straight setted, so there aren’t too much outcomes that would surprise me. Muller is the more tactically sound, but Popyrin will probably get too many chances to find a rhythm in a long match. Popyrin in 5.
Nava vs Jacquet :
These two are similar and yet both very much play like their country of origin. Nava crushes his forehand as often as he can, but his backhand is the traditional American cross-court offering. Jacquet’s biggest weapon is also his forehand, but he has all the slices and tricks on his backhand and plays with entertaining variety. Jacquet won their previous meeting in 3. I don’t see why he can’t win again, as he’s just played well at the Canberra Challenger. He beat Lajovic who was one of the best players in the men’s qualifier, so this is a decent spot. Nava does show great promise when he’s winning, but he can still lose to anyone on tour. Jacquet in 4-5.
Bonzi vs Norrie :
Norrie has sort of gotten himself back in shape recently. I have to say that he’s one of the more actively annoying players on tour, but if I have a preference I’d rather he play well. Bonzi has been mediocre to start the season. He did beat Norrie 6,4 last season, but that was in Metz where he played incredibly well. Bonzi having a great backhand neutralizes Norrie’s main plan, but Cam should still be a little bit too consistent and frustrating for Benjamin. Norrie in 4.
Cerundolo vs Zhang :
Zhang was pretty good at the United Cup. He didn’t offer up many break points, and he hit the court a good bit. He’s a huge hitter, so hitting the court is always a good sign. His backhand isn’t really up to par, but who needs a backhand anyway. Cerundolo hasn’t played much to start the year, and lost his only match to Munar. They’ve split matches in the last two meetings, but this is the first one in 3 years. I think Cerundolo’s physicality and ability to generate and deal with pace will help him win, but Zhang’s serving and local support will be enough to equalize things. Expecting this to go five sets, and Cerundolo is my pick to win because Zhang does have to swing for the fences for a few hours to win.
Draxl vs Dzumhur :
Draxl pulled off a great comeback in qualifying against McDonald, and gets a winnable match here. Liam has a pretty wild style which can lead to early exits. Generally if he wins a match or two he makes the finals at the Challenger level, but the first round losses don’t really have a theme. Dzumhur’s job here is to weather the storm. It’ll be tough for him to get returns in play early, but if he’s able to start landing returns Draxl will likely make enough errors for Damir to win. Should be fun. The upset is possible if Dzumhur plays poorly but it feels like too good of a spot for Dzumhur not to make his best effort. Dzumhur in 5.
Cazaux vs Faria :
My analysis is worth nothing here. Cazaux withdrew from his match against PCB two weeks ago, and hasn’t played since. Is he playing to pick up a check? Is he 100%? 75%? Hard to say. Faria is very solid and has a big serve and forehand, but he only beats Cazaux if Arthur isn’t at his best.
Arnaldi vs Rublev :
I am convinced the Italians have some kind of artifact that allows one of them to ball out of control, and it’s Cobolli’s turn with it. Arnaldi had it before that, and Berrettini before him. The past two seasons Arnaldi just has been stuck between offense and defense, and his consistency has suffered. Rublev was at his best to start the year despite a loss to Musetti, and he should win this in 3-4.
Medvedev vs De Jong :
Good motivated Medvedev was on display in Brisbane as he cruised to the title. Medvedev seemed to fall off a bit in 2025 so it’ll be interesting to see how he does this season. I think it’s easy to get burnt out mentally with his style when titles don’t come, and I expect him to actually play really well this season until his first aggravating Sinner/Alcaraz loss. I think if he plays well and loses that’ll keep him motivated, but if he has a bad day or gets pushed around the court I half expect him to lose interest in the smaller titles and the day to day matches. De Jong is good but it’ll be hard for him to hit through Medvedev for more than one set. Medvedev in 3.
Halys vs Tabilo :
I’d get tickets for this one. Both these guys have really unique swing production and offensive capabilities, and are just good enough on defense to put one extra ball back and just bad enough on defense to never escape without some magic. Despite being slower, I think Halys is a little more steady during baseline exchanges and he’ll eventually get the win. Halys in 4.
Majchrzak vs Fearnley :
I was a little surprised to see Fearnley’s odds close to Majchrzak at open. He was only around +120 which is a little surprising because he ended 2025 on a terrible run, and didn’t play great to start the year. Fearnley was a really solid prospect but unforced errors have become a huge part of his game and it has killed his momentum. At this point I wouldn’t expect him to have a good shot against Majchrzak, whose best attribute is his consistency. When Fearnley lands his shots, he’ll likely win a set or two, but it’s hard for me to say he’s going to find his best tennis and Majchrzak is playing his currently. Majchrzak in 5.
Maroszan vs Rinderknech :
Tough matchup here. These guys both can take care of their serves incredibly well and both can also send the ball aggressively sideways on defense. I think Maroszan is more technically sound, but it’s hard to ignore Rinderknech’s straight set win against him last year. Maroszan has more traditional swings and hits the ball very clean, but Rinderknech is crafty and a bit more interested in keeping the ball inbounds. Should be very close, but I think Rinderknech may be a tiny bit more consistent in the end. Rinderknech in 5.
Tien vs Giron :
This is unfortunate. Giron is playing his absolute best to start the year, and he gets his compatriot who is looking to get off to a good start. Tien won the NextGen tournament, and after a strong finish to the year it’ll be interesting to see where his ceiling is. I still don’t think he’s a good enough server to win quickly, but experience and consistency go a long way. Giron’s serve is much stronger, and his speed will help, but I don’t really think his backhand will hold up here. Their sole meeting was last season on clay in Madrid, and they traded 6-1 sets before Giron won a tiebreaker. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to choose against Giron when he’s peaking, but I do not love his backhand against a lefty. Tien in 5.
Ymer vs Shevchenko :
Good spot for both. Ymer scored a few good wins in qualifying, including one against rising star Coleman Wong. Wong served well, but his backhand disappeared at times during the qualies and that cost him. Ymer is capable of beating Shevchenko, but he’ll have to grind it out the same way he did every other round. Shevchenko’s best tennis comes when he plays long drawn-out grindy matches, so I think he’ll be a little bit more effective on serve and get the win. Shevchenko in 4.
J.M. Cerundolo vs Thompson :
This is another Korda fitness test. Thompson wasn’t healthy last year, and it’s very possible he could withdraw if he gets dragged. Juan is a decent server for a clay-court grinder, and being lefty helps since Thompson’s backhand isn’t great. It’s a Thompson win unless he’s not healthy, and he looked okay in Kooyong. JM could win, but he doesn’t really play aggressively enough to beat a good hardcourt opponent. Thompson in 4.
Borges vs Auger-Aliassime :
Borges just lost to Spizzirri. FAA just lost to Bergs. For me, they have very similar reliability. Both can lose at a moments notice, and both play well round after round once they get a win. Felix won 7-5 in the third in Dubai when they met last year, and I think this could be close in sections also. Borges doesn’t have the firepower to dominate on tour, but he can be sticky and drag rallies out. This will eventually cost him if Felix finds his range, but Felix is very much trying to play one specific offensive game and he makes a lot of errors on the way to finding it. FAA in 4-5.
Musetti vs Collignon :
This one made me scrunch my face up a bit. Collignon is a really good story and this is a waste of his talent. He worked his way up from the Challenger level, and managed to get on tour with very few chances. He started off the year by beating Dimitrov and Shapovalov, and his style of play is something that makes his potential ceiling very high. He’s disciplined and works hard, but he is playing that Karatsev style tennis where you swing big and constantly land. He has a great serve, and with a claycourt background it is likely he stays on tour for a long time. This is a tough ask, and another match that requires some injury assistance for the underdog.
Musetti played excellent in Hong Kong, and appears to have put a lot of effort into playing more offensive tennis. He has had a look at the level needed to play Alcaraz and Sinner, and escaped without any crushing defeats. It looks like he is making the adjustments, but in the finals against Bublik he has having forearm issues. Ratcheting up the pace on serve and during the rally is good, but if it isn’t sustainable it’s a tricky choice. Maybe he’ll get used to it, or maybe his way of playing was already optimal for him. In any event, I think he can grind this out. His defending is world class, and now he’s serving effectively as well. Collignon will be able to back his serve up a good chunk of the time, but on defense I think he’ll make fewer plays than Lorenzo. Musetti in 4 solid sets.
Sonego vs Taberner :
This is one of those where you tune in halfway through the round and Taberner is up 6-4, 6-2, and the odds are still even and then Sonego loses in 3. Outlandish things happen but it’s good to remind myself that all these players are professionals and capable of winning on a given day. It’s a long way of saying that Taberner should not win this match. He isn’t the best on hardcourt, he’s a bit worse in every department except maybe the backhand, and this is the second half of his career. It just seems like Sonego should automatically win this, but he lost in 2 to Shang in his last outting so he’s not exactly coming in hot. Sonego in 3.
Dimitrov vs Machac :
Machac is still alive in the Aidelaide semis, so I’m not sure if he’ll even play this. Machac has had a ton of injury issues, and Dimitrov has also. These two need one of those “no knockouts” clauses like Jake Paul and Mike Tyson had. If they’re both at their peak, I think I’d like Dimitrov, but it’s hard to be at your peak after an extended layoff. Machac active and winning is the pick for me. Machac in 4, but there is a large chance that the match doesn’t finish given their recent history.
Mochizuki vs Tsitsipas :
Tsitsipas played well to start the year. His back issues didn’t flare up too much, and he just beat Mochizuki a week ago. I don’t think he’s going to become relevant in the title hunt here, but it’s nice to see him playing good tennis again. Tsitsipas in 3. Mochizuki has excellent volleys and good placement, but his serve is a bit too weak and Tsitsipas’ forehand is going to be a problem.
Lehecka vs Gea :
Lehecka retire from his last match, so his health is the big question here. If he’s okay, he should win, but I am thinking this is a very good spot for Gea. The main problem with playing after an injury is exertion. If the match is light work, you can get through. If you have to work hard, there is a chance you re-aggravate things, and you won’t be very confident with your physicality in general. You can want to plant and run (it was a right ankle injury), but your muscle memory makes that tough. It takes time to heal and it takes time to retrain the motions to be full commitment, which is why physical therapy is so important. Gea played tremendous on qualifying, and I think he has the game to get himself deep in this match. Lehecka’s power and pedigree are obviously enough to beat a qualifier, but I think this is one of the toughest players he could have drawn and I’m half-expecting Gea to earn the win via withdrawal.
Djere vs Wawrinka :
I guess Djere is back? He qualified in Hong Kong, but then Giron zipped him. I guess Wawrinka is back? He pulled off some heroic losses in the United Cup, which is a weird sentence but is still a good sign from him. In a 2/3 format, I think Wawrinka wins this more than half the time. In 3/5, stamina becomes a factor and Djere can probably play tennis longer. So here, I make my first dual pick. Wawrinka needs to win this in 3-4, and Djere can probably only win by outlasting the storm and winning in 5.
Struff vs Kopriva :
Kopriva is a beautiful mystery, and Struff is confused by mysteries. Half the time Kopriva seems powerful and effective on serve, and other times he’s fluffing the ball up and seems like he’s 5’ tall. Struff is a powerful and aggressive player, but he plays like he’s in a rush to end the match. Consistency vs Blastoise. Not really sure who will win, but Struff probably gets a lot of chances to get going in a long match. Struff in 5.
Royer vs Fritz :
The Royer party has turned the music down a little. He had a ton of upset wins last season, so a random loss to Comesana is not a disaster. Still, it makes Fritz an even tougher opponent than usual. Royer’s offense will have to be crisp, and last season I might even like his chances. Here though, he’s not at his best. The bright point is that Fritz’s knee has become an issue. I saw a graphic about his break percentage dropping dramatically, and it was a nice graphic but … yes? Like, the guy’s knee is injured and he was slow before the injury, do you think his stats should stay the same? Fritz’s serve and +1 are still good enough to beat Royer, and he’s solid enough from the baseline and got invaluable experience in 2025, so I like him here. It’ll be a good look at how he’s moving and how deep in this draw he can really go. I don’t think he’s in title contention if I’m being honest, and I think him making the second week would be a good result and also would see him coming in pretty cooked. Joint issues on long limbs are tricky and Australia is one of the toughest grinds of any tournament. Even early in the year I think it’s a problem. I’m tempted to say Fritz should skip the clay season to rehab his knee for Wimbledon but grass is classic for knee strains and issues so overall I’m a bit scared of this news and I hope it just disappears, like my desire to type up 88 more matches is disappearing. Fritz in 4.
Mensik vs Carreño Busta :
Mensik seems back, and healthy. I think he’ll cook PCB. Pablo is back and playing decent, but his old form has not appeared and that’s what’s necessary to really trouble Mensik. Jakub in 3.
Sakamoto vs Jodar :
This is so dumb. Honestly the placement of the qualifiers in both draws left me shaking my fist at the sky (because that’s where I think Australia is). Sakamoto is only 19 years old and plays with great maturity. He doesn’t go for too much, and lets the ball do the work. He has easy power on his forehand but hits to big targets. He knows that the pace makes his opponent have to move early and he chooses his shots well. His backhand goes down the line efficiently, and he uses dropshots often enough but infrequently enough that they’re usually clean winners. The best part of his game is a cannon of a serve, but the service motion looks easy and natural so I’m not too worried about injuries. In short, Sakamoto is a player to be excited about. He could give a great match to half the draw, but here he’d only advance at the expense of another great talent.
If you haven’t heard of Rafael Jodar yet, you haven’t been around mistagill in the DC chat. We have a fantasy tennis competition going, and Gill picked Jodar in an early round. At the time, I had never even heard the name. The next 5 weeks were filled with nothing but Jodar wins. He took out Tien at the Next Gen finals, and then followed it up by qualifying in his very first attempt at the AO. He is an absolute joy to watch, and there doesn’t really seem to be anything missing from his game. I would pay to watch Sakamoto and Jodar play, but I really don’t want either of them to have to lose here.
I think Sakamoto might do well here, because Jodar lost to Blockx recently and he’s a similar style of player. The caveat to that is that Jodar’s ceiling is uncapped. He is one of those phenoms who gets people talking about top ten this and major winner that. It’s a little unfair to put that pressure on people, but you can be sure that people are putting it on themselves too. We like to ignore it, but we know how prepared we are and how good we are. This is in my top 5 matches for the first round easily, and I would urge everyone to tune in. Jodar won their US Open semifinal in a lopsided match last year, so he is the favorite here. Sakamoto is a bit better now than he was, and in better form, but Jodar in 4-5 makes sense. Tune in. Witness actual greatness.
Hurkacz vs Bergs :
Hurkacz vs Bergs is a pretty rough first round for both. Hurkacz came back and played great at the United Cup, including a win against Zverev, and Bergs was 3-1 at the event. With 64 matches I guess you’ll get a match of every type, but it feels like players often wind up playing each other at their best while other sections of the draw are just some injured guys and two guys who don’t even seem to be on tour playing each other with direct entry. Enough complaining? I apologize. The wise man neither praises nor blames. This is how I know I am not wise because WHO IS MAKING THIS DRAW? Hard to see this being less than 4 sets. Bergs isn’t the most offensive player, but he works hard and he covers the court very well. He’ll be looking to move Hurkacz and drag him into long rallies constantly, but that’ll be tough to do as well as Hubert serves. EXCELLENT SERVING, HUBERT!
Hurkacz probably loses if he gets too impatient. Bergs’ backhand is the better target for approach shots, but Zizou’s movement lets him execute passes and he’s comfortable in a big match. If Hurkacz hangs in rallies too long though, he may get a bit tired. It’s been quite some time since he played a 5-setter and this could be one of those. Bergs has a simple task and it suits his game, but I think he’ll have trouble holding serve. Hurkacz has good reach, and even though his lateral movement is slower and his errors are confuddling, he has a strong forehand and good skill. He might miss, but he’ll also land often enough to put a lot of pressure on Bergs’ timing. Hurkacz in 5.
Quinn vs Griekspoor :
Idk. Griekspoor has been in a weird slump and has talked about feeling rough out there, but he’s beaten Quinn twice already. I think he’s able to grind it out and Quinn tends to win more when his forehand is the biggest weapon on the court. Griekspoor in 4.
Nakashima vs van de Zandschulp :
Nakashima started off the year playing tremendous. He’s not quite a servebot, and not quite a baseliner, but he does both things almost at the top level. It makes him a really tough matchup for servers, and for baseliners. Maybe he’s just good at tennis and that’s what it involves? Anytime I write about tennis I feel like I’m saying obvious things. Anyway, Botic is a tremendous talent and he can win sets against anyone, but Nakashima should be too consistent for him over the course of the long match. Nakashima in 3-4.
Shang vs Bautista Agut :
I think RBA is just about toast. He didn’t have a great 2025, and his success was always predicated on his ability to put every ball back and make clean contact. If he’s a step slow, errors will come, and that puts a lot of pressure on his serve. Shang will cough up errors, but he’s very fast and has good pace on his groundstrokes, so he should just be able to win. Shang in 4.
Atmane vs Maestrelli :
I actually thought Lajovic beat Maestrelli. Great result for him to qualify, and he gets a player who’s not in form. Atmane lost to Humbert and Duckworth to start the season. Those are fine players, but it’s hard to really play your best until you get that win under your belt. Atmane is capable of a very high level, but that level has ben absent for a little while now. He’s 1-7 in his last 8, and he was a Challenger grinder (like Maestrelli) before he got on tour. This could be very close. Atmane has more offense and is a step up from Lajovic, but I still expect at least 4 sets. Atmane in 4.
Martinez vs Djokovic :
The internet is aflutter debating how hard Martinez was trying in the one point tournament. While he did hit the ball back a bit more than players who missed on purpose, Martinez was not trying to crush the dreams of amateur Jordan Smith. He hit him some balls that Smith could have missed, but he never tried to beat him. It’s worth it to watch the recap of Smith’s run actually, there were some very nice gifts from pros but a few good plays. I would say the rally against Pigossi he really earned it. Anyway, Djokovic is too good here. Martinez is still good, but he’s never been Djokovic good. It’ll be another 2 rounds before we get a look at Novak’s level and physical ability here, but it’s a good thing for him to have a simple draw. Djokovic in 3-4.
Shelton vs Humbert :
Shelton is currently suspended down 7-5 against Baez. Sebastian has had a great run the past few weeks, but it’s concerning for Shelton. Humbert is a tough test, and Shelton being only -149 against him is probably as low as you’ll ever see it. Ugo is in the semis of Adelaide, and will have a pretty good chance against Shelton unless Ben levels up. The question here is can Shelton do it on command? Ben has pretty much stepped his game up at the majors every year he’s been on tour, but he ended last season with some shoulder issues. Just got an update that he lost to Baez. I’m gonna side with Humbert here. I’ll happily be wrong because his level will call for a great match from Shelton, but Shelton has not played that great match yet and it seems like people besides me think he’s vulnerable. Humbert in 5.
Sweeny vs Monfils :
Dane Sweeny! Great qualifying story. Dane has been involved in some great highlights but never really made his way on tour. He played excellent in the leadup events, and efficiently in the qualifiers. He’s only 5’7”, but he’s been serving from wider positions in order to start the point off in a manner that makes his speed important, and more importantly keeps his serve from getting attacking without risk. Beating Fearnley and O’Connell in Brisbane were great wins, but they were also lucky opponents to draw, with both a bit out of form. Here he has an interesting test, as Monfils is still capable of high levels, but only when he wishes. Monfils can negate the wide serves that Sweeny is employing because he has excellent reach and height, so that makes this a grind at best for Dane. Monfils probably is only going to bring it at majors and M1000s this year, but this is one of those. This is going to be very uphill for Sweeny and I think the only way he gets through is if Monfils doesn’t have the heart to take it from him. Monfils in 3-4. I will add that +120 for Sweeny is like 100 off from what I expected, so Monfils might not be at his best here physically.
Mannarino vs Hijikata :
Hijikata is off to a good start and playing his home slam. Mannarino has lost everry match to start the year, so Hijikata is a slight favorite. I think it will take a long time for either player to win. Hijikata has great speed and hits a pretty flat ball. He doesn’t really blast anyone off the court, and Mannarino only struggles when his opponent has big power or serving. Maybe the Mannarino slump is the beginning of the end or he’s not able to exert fully, but this feels trappy. They’re trending in opposite directions but I think their previous positions mean they’re meeting in the middle here. Expecting Mannarino to get to a 5th. If he just gets rolled, I think he’ll lose until grass season and not do much outside of that.
Damm vs Vacherot :
Interesting matchup between some huge offenses here. Damm is reminding me that everyone in the qualifiers played well, and he could have good chances here if he’s efficient. Damm is a tall lefty with a huge serve and a strong forehand. His aggressive shot selection is his main weakness, as he can make errors on big points and doesn’t really back off. For a tall player this is likely necessary, but Vacherot has a good way of merging a huge serve with pace and height changes. He’s willing to put the ball in play when he realizes he’s going to miss, and I think that variation will let him outlast Damm. Vacherot is probably going to have a dropoff this year after such an explosive breakout season, but he should be a tiny bit more composed here. Vacherot in 5.
Shapovalov vs Bu :
Shapo insights are like frisbees. I do not have any frisbees. Denis has been in need of a coach for forever. He misses too often. He plays at one franticly aggressive speed. He reacts to errors as if anyone can avoid errors. He double faults and his technique breaks down. I don’t think he’s going to fix it on his own. Players who understand tennis on a high level whether through studying or intuition tend to fix these things and keep the ball in. Tennis is a game of high powered offense and stingy shot selection. You have to merge these things, and you have to play the opponent as much as you play “my tennis”. “My tennis” is a painfully cliched interview quote, but it doesn’t really make that much sense for Shapovalov here because his game has been mapped out and opponents know they can grind their way to wins they don’t really deserve on paper.
Bu can lose to anyone on tour. He doesn’t blast anyone off the court, his game is unorthodox, and it isn’t clear if he’s a grinder or not. He can serve well at times, at other times he seems harmless. Overall I think he has done incredibly well to get on tour, and this is a wildcard spot where he could win. His defensive ability could bother Shapo, and his style could also because it’s difficult for Denis to cope with things he deems unlucky or random. Overall, the only reason Shapo can lose is because he isn’t focused and doesn’t have the best (or doesn’t listen to the best) direction from his team. It’s negative, but it’s where we’re at for analyzing his game. My problem with calling the upset outright is that Bu’s serve is a little weak, so even if he breaks a few times he’ll have a hard time holding. This should come down to a few points unless Shapovalov impodes. Shapovalov in 5.
Altmaier vs Cilic :
I guess I like Cilic, but he can lose to anyone. Altmaier is more likely to give a hard match to a higher tier player, but he’s been losing to everyone to start the year and doesn’t usually thrive on outdoor hardcourt. I’m willing to think that Cilic will be the much better returner here, and his stamina is the main question. With the courts playing quickly, I think he just sneaks by, but this is a lucky draw because Shapovalov/Bu await. Cilic in 4.
Munar vs Svrcina :
Dalibor is inevitable. Munar should win though. The good thing about things being inevitable is they don’t even have to happen. You can just keep saying they’re inevitable. Munar has been regressing a little bit on hardcourt but he’s still really difficult to hit through and Svrcina doesn’t have the huge offense. Should be a fun match but I think Munar is a bit more able to grind out a long match. Munar in 3-4.
Bellucci vs Ruud :
This is one I half expect to be a blowout, but if I tuned in and saw it in a fourth I wouldn’t blink. Ruud played okay to start the season, and okay is way better than what he did on hardcourt last year. It feels like he grinded away for so long that he had to blink, and 2025 was his blink year. He’s enjoying life and golfing and spending time with family, but he can still crush the ball when he trains for a few weeks. Bellucci has fallen off a bit, and my only concern is him being lefty since Ruud’s has a tendency to resemble Ruud’s backhand. Ruud in 3-4.
Khachanov vs Michelsen :
Would anyone notice if I skipped this one?
O’Connell vs Basavareddy :
Nishesh dropped the Reggie Miller “choke” gesture after winning vs Ofner. Maybe he took offense at Ofner’s early celebration, but I don’t think it was the time. Tennis is not really a spicy sport generally, and it only feels fine if it’s two-sided. Ofner thought the match was over in the third set tb at 7-1, but at the majors they played a 10 point tiebreak. That doesn’t really amount to trash-talk to me. Villain Nishesh is not something I expected, but I would guess it’s an isolated reaction since he’s been pretty low-key the rest of his time on tour. Basavareddy should win here. O’Connell at his best could beat him, but he hasn’t been at his best.
Mpetshi Perricard vs Baez :
“The tallest guy in the draw plays the shortest guy in the draw” - evil drawsheet guy “you sure they won’t notice?” - normal drawsheet henchman “just do it just do it” - evil drawsheet guy
Baez has won his last … all of his matches on hardcourt. He’s been an underdog in every single one except vs Nava, and the rest of the names are impressive. I will list them, because I possess this power of copy paste. Giron, Shelton, Brooksby, Nava, Wawrinka, Fritz, Munar. This is a huge plus for Baez, because he turned in one of his worst years in 2025. He made rally ball errors, and his serve has never been effective so a lack of consistency made him lose to basically everyone.
This is a bad matchup because Perricard has a huge serve, but it’s not exactly terrible. Baez has a better chance of holding serve against a guy with less mobility, and if he’s returning Giron/Fritz/Shelton’s offerings, then he can outduel Perricard. It feels like he should lose a long shootout here, but I am not seeing a great reason why Baez cannot just win again. Baez in 5.
Garin vs Darderi :
Darderi should win this. It’s a little funny that two baseline grinders who aren’t good on hardcourt manage to play each other, but that (I promise) will be my last complaint about the draw.
Fonseca vs Spizzirri :
Fonseca’s team revealed he is having some back issues, so I’m not sure he’s going to play here. Spizzirri is having a great couple of weeks, beating Borges and Mannarino. These points are invaluable for him since he’s ranked 89th. Getting direct into Roland Garros/Wimbledon is big because he’s mostly going to earn points on hardcourt events. For me, Fonseca is better, but almost all his outlier losses on tour have been to physically durable grinders. Spizzirri right now fits that bill.
I’m not in his camp, but I partially think the back issues could come from his shot selection. The way he redirects down the line with his forehand puts a lot of torque on your back, and the only great way to mitigate that is to build up your core. When Fonseca takes breaks to train instead of compete, I promise not to complain because it makes sense. The scary thing about tennis is that some of these big hitters seem to break down as a result of their craft. I greatly enjoy the high octane tennis and I hope Fonseca moves past this and has a great career, but I wonder if what I want to see isn’t risky for these guys. I don’t know the sense of a prediction here if I am still unsure if Fonseca will even take the court. Spizzirri only wins if Fonseca is unable to compete for more than 3 sets, but Joao would be forced to go for constant offense if he’s feeling it, and that causes unforced errors, so it is possible.
Nardi vs Wu :
Nardi at his best competes even here, but it’s been a while since we’ve seen that. Wu is excellent at taking time away, and has a good warmup session since he worked through qualifying. Wu in 3-4.
Duckworth vs Prizmic :
Nice for Prizmic to get in. He is a really talented player and his youth is the only thing still holding him back a little on hardcourt. He just doesn’t have the huge game required yet. Duckworth is playing well but every Duckworth match involves 10 duece games and a bunch of 7-5 sets. It’s really tough for him to create distance. Here I think he’s better at the surface but a little less fluid in his groundstrokes. Could become an issue in a long match. Duckworth in 4.
Gaston vs Sinner :
lol