2026 Australian Open Men's Finals

Men’s Finals :

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic :

This has been one of the most peculiar tournaments in recent history. The amount of straight set wins in close matchups has been puzzling, and just when we’ve settled into it, we get gifted two marathon 5 set matches in the semifinals. These were worthy of being finals on their own, and each had massive amounts of tension, drama, and swings of momentum. I’m pretty sure everyone watched them, so I’ll try to go quickly.

Alcaraz against Zverev delivered everything a tennis fan might want. One thing very few tennis fans really enjoys is complaining. A little drama can be intriguing, but too much will make us sick. A text from a crazy ex is interesting, but 25 texts is a cause for alarm. The good thing about tennis has always been that the complainers get crushed. Zverev opened up this match in solid form, but a brief lapse in shotmaking at 4-4 led to a quick break. It was here that the complaints began. Zverev began focusing on string tension, and we all know string tension is important, but is it the reason your serving fell apart at the exact point your serving often falls apart? I’m not so sure. In the second set a lot of the pessimism continued. Zverev managed go up a break and serve for the set at 5-4, but he was broken. It was his racquet’s fault again, and the mindset and complaints were accompanied by another set loss in a quality tiebreaker.

I have to say that Zverev played very well this match. It was a great tournament for him, and he acquitted himself well (in terms of tennis) against Carlos. That being said, he has some gaps in his mental game that are costing him in a major way. Zverev spent a lot of the second set trying to decide if he still had a chance to win. Even after he gave the break back he was still thinking “ah I missed my chance”. It bothers me that he does this because while he’s internally debating what his approach and attitude should be, he’s missing the match that he’s still in. Does it matter if you go down 0-2 or are tied 1-1? Should the deficit ever matter in the semifinal of a major? Fight. 

This is closely linked to the other problem I have with him in these spots. He doesn’t work the crowd much in general, which is fine, but they tend not to get on the side of the player who’s complaining. There is a good chance that crowds have not really been keen on him because of his domestic abuse allegations (settled out of court which never looks good), but nothing gets you support like showing people you want to win. Nothing inspires people like fighting back when there is no hope. It’s obviously not his job to entertain the crowd, but also, it sort of is? You can say “who cares”, but these are things that help you win so I’m not really hesitant to point them out. Being able to compartmentalize the previous point / the previous game / the previous set allows you to play freer and since it is actually difficult to play your best when the scoreline is painful or you’ve missed chances, adopting this practice is essential because eventually, you can do it. Having the crowd on your side is huge. Having your opponent know you’re going to dig in and compete is huge, and not giving them anything to inspire them when they look across the net at you is important.

The players who attack their box or have a go at the ref tend to struggle and to get punished, and it happened here. Soon he was down 2-0, and it looked like a quick 3-0 loss since Alcaraz tends to play freer as he goes. Alcaraz would shortly pull up with a leg issue early in the set, and the request for a medical timeout was honored. The replay video does show his thigh muscle completely torqued in the slow-mo, and it appeared to be a cramp. Zverev took this moment to display his remarkable range. Mariah Carey obviously can sing in 5 different octaves, but Zverev also showed a great ability to go up an octave as he excitedly complained to the ref that this MTO was not allowed. I joke, but I agreed at the time. It looked like a cramp, and athletes are not supposed to get a timeout for a cramp, right? Apparently not. The doctor’s are allowed to assess heat illness, and the cramps can be a treatable side-effect of that. Alcaraz had thrown up into his towel shortly before this, and while this was off-camera, it partially explains why they were willing to grant the MTO. Cramps are a tricky thing in tennis because if a player wants the MTO, they likely won’t say it’s cramps. Muscle soreness or weakness or a strain is a hard thing to dispute even if the player seems to have cramps. In any event, Zverev asked for a tournament director to come out, and I’m not exactly sure what he was saying, but “DAS IST BULLSHIT!” was repeated fairly often.

From here the match got interesting. Alcaraz was unable to put weight on his right leg, and he started going to bailout dropshots and aggressive returns. He didn’t run much, and it seemed like he was waiting for his treatments to work. The announcers explained that pickle juice works instantly, and they weren’t sure why he wasn’t pushing it to try to close out in three. I think sometimes we overlook how much players are pushing already. For Alcaraz to actually have to stop running means he was in major discomfort. Just because a cramp has slowed doesn’t mean that muscle isn’t experiencing massive fatigue and pain. You can want to exert all you want but if your body has just gone through something traumatic, good luck. Anyone who’s come back from a significant injury knows that part of physical therapy is reteaching your parts that it’s safe (pain-free) for them to work. 

Carlos had one look at 15-30 on Zverev’s serve at 5-4, and missed a forehand deep. The announcers again suggested he “load up” and “if you cramp, you go home” and I think again they weren’t really looking at things clearly. Pickle juice may work instantly, but the issue at hand is dehydration so you need to put things back. Carlos was drinking heavy liquids on every changeover, to the point where he told his team “i can’t drink anymore”. He lost a tiebreaker, and the question of whether he’d be able to continue the match were pretty heavy in the air.

The fourth set was more of the same. Alcaraz just managed to hold serve, but couldn’t get much going in return games. Zverev’s wide serve looked difficult for him to return early in the match, so with the injury (or cramp-hinderance) he was in bad shape. The fourth set tiebreaker was thrilling, and had a number of mini-breaks, but again Alcaraz just wasn’t able to get much going. This is where the match got very interesting to me, and I have to give either him or his team a lot of credit for this. Alcaraz went down a break right at the start of the 5th set, but he started to move a little better. The opening break is the hardest one to hang onto, for math reasons and because every step towards the finish line gets more and more mentally fatiguing. The further you get before you lose it back, the more cooked you are mentally when you do. 

Alcaraz played the 3rd and the 4th, but physically and focus-wise he took about two hours of the match off. While he was doing that, Zverev was grinding. Leaving the 4th set Zverev’s level looked great. Opening the 5th it looked great, but his serve started to fade. Alcaraz started to exert again as he had sufficiently hydrated and recovered his movement, and that changed things in a massive way. Suddenly his swing-for-the-fences approach wasn’t as necessary, and he started being willing to hang in backhand exchanges again. Zverev has a great backhand, but he doesn’t escape these. He needs his opponent to miss. When Carlos found forehands, he was able to execute and swing freer than Zverev. He’d been through more noticeable trauma physically, but he had gotten in a good chunk of rest. His practice trying to end points quickly also helped. At the end he was able to hit each +1 to the open court with more freedom and comfort than Zverev was, and the dynamic of the match shifted massively. Zverev faced break points in his last 3 service games (broken at 5-4), and the cumulative pressure finally got to him. He had played an incredible match, but hit a wall physically. 5 hours of serving the way he does has to be absolutely draining, and for a taller athlete to be running sprint drills with Alcaraz is incredible. Add in that he’s diabetic and this was a great performance. Zverev perhaps deserved to win, but I think being up 2-0 just gave Alcaraz a cushion to approach the match with a recovery focus rather than a sprint one. I’d circle Zverev’s complaints and mindset in that second set again; had it been 1-1 it’s likely he’d be in the finals right now, but deflecting blame and narrating a match takes you out of the match and you need to be fully in the match to beat the top guys.

Alcaraz is in the finals here and has a familiar but slightly unexpected opponent. The big question will be his leg. I found that he missed a number of hyper-aggressive forehands against Zverev, and a lot of forehands were shanked when he was moving towards the duece-court. If he’s fully recovered (which is partially possible with a day or two of rest), he should be okay, but it’s rather surprising to me that he cramped in that spot in the first place. The match was pretty choppy, with a lot of time between points and a lot of service winners. It’s a question I can’t completely answer, but there are some equal questions on the other side.

Djokovic did it again. I can’t count on even two hands how many times he has looked completely out of a situation and then found a win. After a lackluster performance against Musetti, I didn’t think he had much chance against Sinner. We’ve all seen Sinner’s strange path through the draw and there were some lingering physical questions, but he played solid against Shelton and it was a quick match. I’m not going to go as deep into the Djokovic Sinner match because it was really about one story. Djokovic saved 16 of 18 break points faced. Sinner led the stats in nearly every single category, but Novak was incredibly clutch on the day. When players are in top form, a few key points decide the match, and Djokovic was better on the way.

I think in particular the “nothing to lose” aspect of the match benefitted Djokovic, or maybe “he used it” is another way to put it. On big points, he was very willing to pull the trigger on offense. His contact is excellent and accuracy has long been his main focus, but the choices were automatic and the execution was smooth. It’s as well as he’s played in a while, and despite the 5 set match, this was his first huge output of energy this week. I expect Djokovic to be good here, because anything that can be done as prep has been done in his career, and anything health-wise that can be done to prepare him for the finals here will be done.

There are a few factors here in each direction that I think will have a bearing on the finals, but a few of them are question marks. The first is the weather. It’s likely to be around 60 degrees for the finals. This is pretty chilly, and will give both players trouble. It means less likelihood of cramps for Alcaraz, but it will also take away his ability to end points quickly with power. This brings in the second factor, which is decision-making and shot selection. Djokovic has been making the right choice his whole career, and Alcaraz on hard-court still is very willing to go for broke, or hit a shot to entertain the crowd. He’s capable of executing, but his plan B is patience. I am not sure if he will enjoy the slower conditions here. The flip-side if this is that Djokovic will have a little trouble flattening the ball out on his own offensive attempts. Alcaraz will be able to get more balls back in play, and if you think about slower conditions, it might mean that despite the lower frequency of winners, only Alcaraz has the ability to really hit through the court.

There is a lot of wind in the forecast tonight. It looks to be between 15-25 mph throughout the match. This is not great for Djokovic, who is more of a spot server. It’ll be tough for him to be sharp on this at times, and it makes the match a bit more of a tug of war. This benefits Carlos greatly, because serving is the one aspect where I would greatly favor Djokovic. 20% chance of rain for a few hours means there’s an outside chance they close the roof, but that’s unlikely. The court speed is something Djokovic really likes, so weather isn’t going to make him disappear or struggle to play tennis, but I think there is a slight boost to Alcaraz here. Obviously, the one big question is how is Alcaraz’s leg. Cramps don’t tend to cause permanent issues, but pushing through them (even to walk) for 3 more hours can break down muscles and tendons a bit. Djokovic will probably look to test his movement to the forehand wing early and often, and with the wind adding a bit of chaos the errors might come. That was the side where Alcaraz missed a number of his tomahawk attempts in the last match.

The hard part about this is I really don’t want Djokovic to lose. It would be such a cool story if he won #25 here, and to do it by defeating the greatest 3 players of this generation (Botic, Sinner, and Alcaraz) back to back would be so cool. Honestly, feel good moment for everyone. So I hope I’m wrong. I think though that Alcaraz represents a different weight of shot from Sinner. I think he will recover well for this, and I don’t think Djokovic’s serve is as hard to return as Zverev’s. I expect a lot more rallies, and for the GOAT to have to navigate a lot of tough spots as he did against Sinner. The stupid law of stupid averages says that he’s probably not going to be perfect on break points here, so I think I’m leaning towards Alcaraz winning in an anti-climactic 4 sets.

PS … Sometimes I complain when people tell me I hate their favorite player (I don’t), or when people circle back and tell me I’m a fool for doubting Novak (I am), but here I want it. Alcaraz is going to win a ton of these tournaments, let’s get together and summon one more chaotic upset for the all-around goat.