2025 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles - Semifinals

Musetti vs Alcaraz :

Musetti is having a tremendous season. In the past he’s shown bright points, but this is the first stretch where it seems like he’s locked into a level, and that’s big progress for him. It’s fitting that during this period he gets to battle one of his biggest hurdles for the foreseeable future. Lorenzo’s level means that he’s going to go deep in big tournaments on all surfaces, but to win those titles, you’re going to have to go through Sinner or Alcaraz. So far, the matchup has been a tough one for Musetti. He’s good enough to defend and hang in. He’s good enough that the scorelines are respectable (although one-sided), and he’s good enough that the rallies are entertaining. Thus far though, there is no reliable place for him to score.

Alcaraz defends as well as Musetti, and he hits the ball harder overall. His strokes are more compact and repeatable, and he tends to do less running in their matchup. He’s the best player on clay right now, with the biggest offensive weapon (his forehand). The last round was pretty simple for Carlos, as Tommy Paul was not 100%. Due to his abdominal strain, he just wasn’t able to hit the ball as big (for long durations) as he normally is, and that lack of exertion made it impossible to score on Alcaraz. If Alcaraz is putting returns in play, you have to be Sinner in order to win. Credit to Tommy for taking the court so the fans had something to watch, but that was basically hitting practice for Alcaraz.

While Carlos was getting a lucky break, Musetti put on a very solid performance against Tiafoe. Frances was even after two sets and looked to be playing well, but a few key points went against him late in the third. It looked as if he ran out of ideas, and that’s understandable given the volume of offense he was forced to play to score on Musetti. Given the flat performance in the fourth, I think even if Tiafoe had won the third he would have lost. It’s a great run and he should do well on grass, so heading into the North American hardcourt season he won’t have any pressure, which is huge since most of his points (and most of his solid play) come from that stretch.

I don’t expect Musetti to crumble here, but I think he’s just a bit less powerful than Alcaraz. He’s able to dial up the pace, but he’s been winning by maintaining a level of skillful defense and baseline grinding that I don’t think are effective enough to defeat Alcaraz. Alcaraz in 4.

Sabalenka vs Swiatek :

This is likely the finals. It’s mildly disrespectul to Gauff and Boisson to say that, but these two have been operating at a level about the rest of the tournament. Sabalenka’s reversal of the Rome result against Zheng felt likely, but she really forced it to happen. She served well, and the constant aggression she’s able to come up with on her forehand side is really impressive. She’s a taller player for the WTA, but she has excellent body control. We just watched Swiatek have her hands full against Rybakina because of her powerful offense, and that challenge gets tougher against Aryna.

Swiatek arrived in middling form, but has played well this week. She had a pretty safe quarterfinal against Svitolina, who may have fared better in an earlier round or without the Paolini clash. If Iga was in big trouble against Rybakina, Sabalenka adds a wrinkle because she moves way better and plays a bit more steady on defense. I don’t think Sabalenka serves as accurately as Rybakina, but she serves harder. She’s better at changing direction also, but not great at it. This is where I think Swiatek still has a chance even with Sabalenka playing her best tennis ever. This fortnight Swiatek has regained her ability to create angles and her footwork looks sharp again. She’s not going to win a toe-to-toe hitting contest against Sabalenka, but if she can keep her moving she can have success. This will probably come down to serve percentages for Swiatek. If she’s not landing first serves Sabalenka is going to give her major problems, and Swiatek can get a little nervous at times. On the other hand, Sabalenka is playing great but hasn’t really come up against a dissimilar player yet. She has played a number of big offenses and in those cases she was the better athlete. Clay is often about defense and stingy play, and this will be a day match so Swiatek’s topspin will be in full effect.

This is one that’s better for a fan than an analyst. The demonstrated levels thus far do point to Sabalenka, but I don’t think anyone that Sabalenka has played would have done that well against Iga. She came in in rough form, but as we’re seeing (it’s mid-match) in the Djokovic game the great champions know what to do in the big moments. I’m wondering if Sabalenka will be as automatic about her shot selection in a deciding set, and I think given their play thus far that that’s where this is heading. Swiatek’s not injured, and she has all the experience and belief here. This feels like another “prove it” spot for Sabalenka, and I think watching her beat weaker players can sometimes paint an inaccurate picture. Swiatek in 3.

Boisson (obv) vs Gauff :

This is wild. Andreeva has proven that she can compete with the top tier of the tour, but also that she can still lose to solid baseliners. Boisson winning isn’t the wildest result, but winning on that stage really is. The WTA has produced a number of cinderella stories over the last decade, and all of them have been amazing to watch. It doesn’t guarantee they maintain the level for the rest of their career, but the level these players bring in their big runs is incredibly high. Boisson hit her forehand returns near the baseline for almost the entire match. Andreeva’s speed and solidity makes it seem like they’re just routine returns, but Boisson is playing really aggressive tennis while somehow also remaining solid.

Boisson was down 5-3 in the first set, and things looked about how I expected. Boisson was employing some dropshots and slices and moonballs, and Andreeva was dealing with them. She’s a well-coached player, and all the mid-court rallies were going her way. Late in the set though, she got a bit tentative. Boisson started to hit her forehand 3mph harder at 5-3, and Andreeva started looking to outlast her. It resulted in a huge swing in momentum. Boisson started getting time to swing, and Andreeva’s errors started to be doubly worse because she wasn’t really going for anything. Boisson had 3 set points in the 5-6 game, but she blinked on all of them. When the challenger gets tight in the big spots, the tiebreaker feels like it’ll go the other way, but Lois again got more aggressive there. She went up to 80mph on her average forehand in the tiebreaker, and that slightly heavier ball was the difference.

The second set was much like the first. Andreeva went up 3-0 and Boisson had trouble creating, but then the talented French underdog started playing more solid and Andreeva just had trouble managing things. Boisson went on to win 6 games in a row, and the crowd played a big factor in that. The RG crowd is always backing their players, and they seem willing to get as involved as they need to be. It’s not surprising, but it was a lot for Andreeva to deal with. I want to give credit to someone very special also, the announcer in the Boisson match. The usual hot nonsense is always there, but during the 5-6 game where Andreeva was fully freezing and choking, and had at least 3 double faults, Evert managed to offer up “Andreeva is serving so well this game”. I don’t think some of the announcers really follow the tour, but it would be nice if they followed the match.

Gauff is supposed to win this match. Boisson has had closer contests with players that Gauff beats in these conditions. She would be expected to beat Pegula, Mertens, and Andreeva, but they would all be close. She would be expected to beat Boisson, but at some point you have to respect the level. I think Boisson’s physical base (she’s absurdly strong) is likely to let her compete well in this semifinal, and the crowd will be as involved as is necessary. Since Gauff can struggle with confidence behind her forehand and serve, this is an unfortunate but positive boost for Boisson.

I actually have liked the level from Gauff this week, but not last match. She’s been serving well for half the match in most of her rounds, and that’s actually good enough because she really wins behind her defense and her backhand. She’s been content to hit her forehand cross-court, and that’s good enough because she’s fast enough to defend any balls she leaves slightly short. I think Andreeva is way less error prone on the forehand wing, but Gauff is faster and hits the ball much harder with her backhand. This is the best player Boisson has faced, and playing Keys last round may help Cori. The level was not great at all, and both played pretty sloppy tennis at times, but I think on Gauff’s end that was because she was dealing with such pace from Keys. Boisson hitting the ball a bit slower may let Gauff feel like she has extra time, and proactive footwork can lead to better play.

It’ll be interesting to see how Boisson’s backhand fares here. She hits a lot of slices when she’s pulled wide, and Gauff will likely only be able to punish this by driving more backhands. The slice stays low, so it isn’t exactly simple to produce off of. The wins Boisson has so far are of the level that would defeat Gauff if she reverts, but Gauff has found a way to win this week and she looks focused, so to predict Boisson beating an unseen version of Gauff doesn’t feel right. I do really like the way Boisson locates her serve, and her depth of shot on her forehand returns is excellent, but I think that the extra speed Gauff brings to the table and the simpler approach (crush backhands, make forehands into the court) will make this a long day. Gauff in 2 close sets.