2025 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles - Round Three Day Two

ATP Singles :

Sinner vs Lehecka :

Jannik Sinner and Gasquet created some quality tennis, but the outcome always seemed assured. Up next is his hardest test yet, but another match I expect him to always look in control of. Jiri Lehecka has huge power in his forehand and good spot serving. He reminds me at times of a powerful version (serve/forehand) of Herbert, and this week he’s in good form. Davidovich Fokina is usually a tough out, but it appears he’s running on fumes at this point. Sinner has many good attributes, but I think it’s his rally tolerance that give him the edge here. Lehecka has the power to hit through players, but Sinner plays the ball early and reflects power well. Jiri’s downfall is usually overcooking his groundstrokes when he gets rushed, and even on clay Sinner’s pressure and consistent hitting can create a feeling of urgency in his opponents, if only to escape rallies.

Lehecka here and Rublev next represent two big tests for Jannik, but these are the types of players he has somewhat passed by. Lehecka moves well and has the firepower to score if he gets the advantage, but I think he’s a little worse than Sinner on defense and on the backhand side. With Lehecka coming in playing well, this could be the first match where Sinner drops a set. Sinner in 4.

Rublev vs Fils :

Unfortunately, Fils will not be able to continue in this event due to back pain after a massive 5 set comeback against Jaume Munar. It’s always unfortunate to come up short and see the guy who beat you withdraw, but Munar has behaved like a little shit at times in the past few seasons so I’m at peace with the result.

Bublik vs Rocha :

Shabooya Rocha. Wild result for Rocha in the second round, coming back from two sets and a break down to defeat one of the hottest players on tour right now. The French crowd enjoyed this one massively, as Mensik had taunted them a little the round before. Not to be outdone, Bublik decided to also come back from 2 sets down. This is one of those matches I expected both players to really play well in. Both have pulled massive upsets, and are further in this event than anyone expected them to be. Stylistically, it reminds me a little of Gigante Shelton (which I fumbled). The format here calls for me to have answers, but here there are a few questions. The big one is can Rocha return Bublik’s serve? Gigante was basically unable to get clean returns in play all day today, and it gave Shelton a comfortable win. Bublik has a huge T serve from both sides and he rushes the net as often as he can. For Rocha to win, he has to get into rallies, and that’s not guaranteed.

Bublik beating De Minaur basically places him at the peak of his abilities for me. De Minaur is a huge fake-test and the #1 way Bublik loses is by being fake. He bails out of rallies early, he goes for poor shots to amuse the crowd, and he avoids digging in and caring about matches. He is a wildly entertaining pro and tennis needs more of him, but he doesn’t always get the most out of his ability. To beat Alex though, he had to play his best and he had to go all out. I expect him to continue his good offensive play, and I think he’ll have less puzzle solving to do here since Rocha plays fairly straightforward and balanced tennis. This is extremely close. I rate the win against Mensik as better than De Minaur, but the situation Rocha was in could easily have resulted in a straight set loss. Two 5 set upsets in a row is a wild run, and I wonder if his work in qualifying doesn’t leave him a little bit less fresh than Bublik. This is brand new territory for Rocha, and I wouldn’t rule him out. For now though, I think Bublik in 4-5 is most likely. He should have an easier time holding serve and Rocha has lost some recent matches against servers.

Fonseca vs Draper :

I’ll admit that I get some information from the pricing of these matches. In Indian Wells earlier this year, Fonseca was priced around +160 against Draper. Given Draper’s level at that time, I thought this meant he’d be competitive, though I wasn’t exactly sure what that would look like. He lost 4,0, and didn’t really look like he had a simple way to score. Here, he is again +160. Draper made the finals of Madrid, he’s in pretty good form (not quite as good as Madrid but still quality), and he cooked Fonseca last time, so that’s a bit of a prediction that Fonseca will do well here. I’ll try to puzzle it out, but I’m not sure I see it.

Fonseca’s game is built around huge powerful drives, and he mixes in the occasional dropshot. He goes down the line incredibly well, but he doesn’t really create angles well (as pointed out by DC reg zoomiegrub earlier today). One of the main places he coughs up errors is trying to crush the ball cross-court. He tends to land a few too many of these in the nets, where most players on tour would be using more height, spin, and angle in these situations. It’s these rally ball errors that make me think he’ll have a hard time with Draper again. Jack has a pretty well ironed out shot selection at this point on clay, and Fonseca is still deciding from shot to shot what he’ll go for. Draper’s backhand is obviously the target, but he’s gotten fairly good at defending on this wing and keeps it low when he goes cross-court. For Fonseca to win this, he’ll need to serve very well, and play a bit more carefully than he usually does.

The last round was a good win for Joao because he ended it in straight sets, but Herbert fared well against him and Draper is one of the top players on tour right now. Maybe he’ll hit a wall physically, or some of the errors that were there against Monfils will arise, but I think this is likely to go to Draper. He serves well, has a huge forehand, and he’s the more consistent player right now. I just wonder where Fonseca can score consistently, and if he can score without coming up with the highlight reel shots he’s become known for. There are some stamina concerns early in his career, so this is a spot where I will gladly watch Fonseca rise to the occasion, but I think Draper likely wins in 4. Fonseca is capable of an incredible level of tennis, but this will be the best win of his career.

Zverev vs Cobolli :

Zverev has arrived in this round without too much trouble. He dropped a set to De Jong, but the underdog redlining to win the first set is not really a disaster. From there, Zverev coasted. Here he has a really interesting puzzle to solve. Flavio Cobolli is playing excellent, coming off a title run, and crushing his forehand. It’s the forehand strength that makes me think he can be effective here. Zverev is basically Gauff in neutral rallies. He has a very strong backhand that he mostly drives cross-court, and a forehand that can be effective but vulnerable. If he decelerates on that wing, Cobolli can score on him. There isn’t a great way for Cobolli to score to Zverev’s backhand side, but he doesn’t need to. The only way to beat Zverev is to isolate his forehand and make him aware you’re doing that. When this sets in, he begins trying not to miss, and he swings too slowly and carefully to create depth.

The questions for Cobolli are whether he can return serve, and how he fares in the backhand exchanges. If he struggles in these departments, I think he loses in 4. Cobolli’s level of aggression and his routine win over Arnaldi is good enough to make him competitive regardless of what Zverev does, but I genuinely wonder if Zverev’s weight of shot and serve won’t make this really tough. I criticize Zverev for being passive, but he still is a really tough out in a 3/5 format because of the sheer workload required. Since winning a set probably requires Cobolli to get returns in play, winning a set almost feels like the same equation as winning two. The bad Zverev can actually lose this match, but it’s the toughest test of Cobolli’s run of good play. We’ll get the answer to Cobolli’s ceiling here almost immediately. I’m hoping he does well, but right now it feels like Zverev in 4-5 is the most likely outcome.

Griekspoor vs Quinn :

Griekspoor was clinical in round two. Diallo played some solid tennis but Griekspoor just kept making solid returns, and the moment he had control of rallies he hit clean groundstrokes to the open court. It was formulaic, and aside from a 3rd set blip, Griekspoor played the best he has all month. It sets up a somewhat easier match against Ethan Quinn. Quinn was just a bit more clutch than Shevchenko in the second round. He served well in big moments, and although he gave Shevchenko many opportunities late in the match, Alex was unable to settle himself and convert those points. Here, I think Griekspoor should win in 3-4 at most. He’s better than Quinn in every department, and he’s playing less tennis this week. Quinn’s forehand is a laser and his serving is effective, but I think Griekspoor just navigated a tougher offense in Diallo and he should be good here. Griekspoor in 3-4.

Norrie vs Fearnley :

Norrie and Fearnley both had fairly comfortable second rounds. Norrie played Gomez, and his ability to return serve let him dominate that match. Fearnley was up against Humbert, and while Ugo was up a break in the second, a fall forced him to retire. Despite being from the same country, Fearnley and Norrie haven’t played yet. I expect this to be very close. Fearnley has a great wide serve from the duece side and that should make life difficult on Norrie. Norrie has a fully extended technique on his backhand, and that makes it really tough to redirect the ball when the wide serves get height or steep angle on them. I stress getting cheap points on serve because Norrie’s best attribute is his defending from the baseline. He scrambles for everything. He’s a scrambler. Fearnley has good power and a heavy forehand, but I don’t expect him to be able to hit through Norrie often enough to win quickly.

Cam is hitting his forehand down the line well, and this match is a bit later in the day so conditions might be a little cooler. I would love a Fearnley win because I think he’s a really underrated prospect on tour, but I think he’ll likely get grinded down. Norrie’s game-style is “what if I made myself as annoying as possible” and it has potential to get him a result here. I don’t think anyone is shutting Fearnley out, but this will require 4-5 hours of tennis and I haven’t seen that yet from him. Norrie in 5.

Misolic vs Djokovic :

Huge huge win for Misolic against Shapovalov last round. Things looked like they were going in a heartbreaking direction when Denis won the 3rd and 4th set, but Misolic was more sold in the fifth. Shapo spent a lot of time arguing calls this week, and his frustration at errors and explosions at his box are hard to watch. He seems like an easy-going dude, but I think there is a disconnect between the greenlight to go for shots that he affords himself, and the reaction to rough results. He must attend the monastery at Mt. Bublik and learn to pretend he doesn’t care better.

Djokovic got pretty spicy with the crowd against Moutet, but closed out in straight sets. It leaves him fresh for this round, one that I don’t think will be as straightforward as their rankings suggest. Djokovic has found good form again, but he hasn’t played anyone with a great deal of power yet. There have been some timing issues and visible reactions to bad bounces this week, and Misolic’s weight of shot will give us a good look at how Djokovic navigates this. With Norrie/Fearnley in the next round, and Cobolli looking very dangerous against Zverev, this is one Djokovic will want to wrap up quick. His task is simple, keep Misolic moving so that he can’t use his massive power, and isolate his backhand, a wing that is struck well but fairly predictably cross-court. Djokovic seems to elevate his game as needed, so I think Misolic will take a set here before bowing out. Norrie and Hurkacz both took one off Djokovic in Geneva, and while they’re better on paper than Misolic, they’re also guys you wouldn’t expect to be that effective against Novak. Djokovic in 4.

WTA Singles :

Andreeva vs Putintseva :

Putintseva defeated Garland, and I made a little sad face. Garland competed well, but just didn’t have the volume of offense it takes to hit past Putintseva. Andreeva does. Mirra reversed the loss against Krueger and had a somewhat comfortable straight set win. Here she’ll have to play much longer rallies, but I honestly don’t see how Putintseva will score on her. Andreeva moves the ball more effectively, and is technically sound. If you don’t have big power, it’s really hard to beat her. Putintseva has salvaged a pretty rough season with this result. Andreeva in 2.

Kasatkina vs Badosa :

I’m confused here. Kasatkina arrived struggling, and now is in the third round and there’s buzz she might defeat Badosa. I don’t really see it. Badosa beat Osaka, and hits the ball harder than Kasatkina. Darya’s strength is defending and forcing her opponents to play long rallies, but Badosa is usually okay with this. The 3 set match with Ruse looks bad on paper, but Ruse played Badosa close before so that was somewhat expected. If anything, I think it’s a good win for Paola. There is always the potential for back issues with Badosa so I wouldn’t go making twitter posts about her being a lock, but she’s better on this surface, and comes in playing solid. Badosa in 2.

Jacquemot vs Boisson :

Trouble! Boisson is playing excellent right now. She beat Mertens, and backed it up by dropping only 3 games against Kalinina. Now she faces Jacquemot, and a lot of people are pretty sure she’s going to win (as evidenced by the movement on her side in the markets). I am a little concerned though. Jacquemot beat Sakkari, who is a similar level win as Mertens. She also won the previous meeting with Boisson 2,0. Elsa did royally fumble the second set against Parks after serving for it at 6-2, 5-4, but she closed out in style. She has a big serve, and her groundstrokes are hard to read. Boisson is a bit stronger physically and has better rally tolerance, but I think this will be close. Boisson being so durable and playing so well behind her backhand are what I think will be slight keys here. Boisson in 3.

Vondrousova vs Pegula :

Pegula hasn’t been her best this week, but her level doesn’t really fluctuate that much. She hits the ball solid, flat, and minimizes errors. She’s good at trading angles on the forehand, and she has easy power. This should be an interesting contest because of that. In round one I was very impressed by Vondrousova’s ability to hook her forehand back when faced with Selekhmeteva’s power. It’s the same type of problem that Pegula presents. The question here is whether Vondrousova is ready to play at this level after a long layoff, but she’s more comfortable on the surface and has had two good warmup matches. Selekhmeteva was a huge offense, and Frech was a solid defense. Pegula sort of combines the two. Based off the 6-3, 7-6 win against Li, this should wind up in a third. I think Pegula will be a little more ready to play a long match, but Marketa’s variety and forehand might make things difficult. Pegula in 3.

Keys vs Kenin :

Kenin got a little grumpers against Azarenka, but she won in straight sets. I love her backhand, and it’ll need to be very prominent for her run to continue. Keys won comfortable against Katie Boulter, and she leads the h2h against Kenin 4-1 (1-1 on clay, but both were 5 years ago). Key’s serve forehand combo can get her a bunch of free points, and Kenin will need to be very consistent with her backhand in order to hang even in the scoreline. It feels doable, but Keys’ power can make it really tough to redirect. If Madison is playing well (and it seems she is), I like her in 2 close sets.

Baptiste vs Bouzas Maneiro :

These two met earlier this year, and Bouzas Maneiro was able to outlast Baptiste in a thrilling 3-setter. That was a hardcourt match, but I think this match will be similar. Baptiste’s serve and power are something Maneiro can’t shut down at this point, but Maneiro’s stamina and defending can earn errors. I think she has the edge in the fitness department, and will win another long 3 set match.

Kudermetova vs Alexandrova :

Hmm. Kudermetova crushed Krejcikova, but Krejcikova was not ready to play. She made twice as many unforced errors as she did winners, and she had 5 double faults. It’s good to see her ballin again but for now Kudermetova was way sharper. It sets up a powerful offensive clash against Alexandrova, a very familiar opponent. Kudermetova is 4-4 against Alexandrova, and that’s lovely because it gives me nothing to go off. Hooray! I think this match will go to a decider. Alexandrova’s backhand and serve are a bit better than Kudermetova, but her movement isn’t great. Kudermetova is playing well with control, but she aims super close to the baseline and errors can abound. Additionally, both players hit big enough that it’ll be tough for their opponent to keep the rallies alive. I think Alexandrova might just be a bit more adept on serve, so I’ll give her the edge in a third. She also is very used to a Fils-style approach where she slugs away looking for a rhythm and once she finds it she tends to roll. Alexandrova in 3.

Gauff vs Bouzkova :

I thought Valentova played well, but the volume of shots she hit only to win 6 games just reminds me how tough it is to beat Gauff. Cori’s backhand is world class, and she was pretty solid on the forehand wing throughout. Up next is a really tricky test, because she has yet to win a match against this opponent. Their first meeting was a withdrawal, but in 2023 these two met in Rome (very similar conditions to RG) and Bouzkova won in 3. When I watch Bouzkova lose, I feel like she lacks power and doesn’t serve well. When I watch Bouzkova win, she seems to have more spring in her shots and she hits her forehand harder. Marie’s backhand is excellent, which may be what allows her to compete against Gauff. This is scary for me. Bouzkova has been playing well lately, and leads the h2h 2-0. I still like Gauff, but she’s not automatic and she has some recent losses to baseliners (Paolini, Linette, Bencic, Kessler, Kostyuk, Badosa). While digging those out, I had to scroll very far. Gauff has just been winning a ton of tennis matches, and she is always making slight improvements to her consistency even while working out the serve/forehand troubles. I think she’ll grind her way through here. Gauff in 3.